Democrats Could Even Keep the House This November

[Frodo]

The main reason for optimism being Donald Trump, according to Simon Rosenberg:

Is There a Serious Case for a Not-Awful Election for Democrats This Fall?
One strategist’s “Trumptimism” is another’s “hopium.”

The conventional wisdom in Washington would indicate that the Democrats are all but certain to lose the House in 2022, and very likely the Senate, too. The yearlong collapse in Joe Biden’s approval ratings has been seen as a virtual guarantee of this outcome. Biden has become the most politically unpopular leader at this point in a Presidency since the advent of modern polling—even more unpopular than Trump was during the “blue wave” election of 2018. That and a worst-in-four-decades inflation outbreak on Biden’s watch have convinced almost all political observers that the elections this fall are a sure thing for Republicans.

But, over the summer, a new school of what might be called “Trumptimism” has taken hold among some Democratic strategists and independent analysts. In the mess of our current politics, they discern a case for optimism—history-defying, experience-flouting optimism that maybe things won’t work out so badly after all in November. “In the age of Trump, nothing is normal,” Simon Rosenberg, the president of the liberal think tank the New Democrat Network and a veteran strategist, told me, on Thursday. “Nothing is following traditional physics and rules, so why would this midterm?”

Rosenberg, a staunchly public proponent of this view for the past few months, argues that Trump’s continued hold over the Republican Party is actually good news for Democrats this fall—and beyond. Trump, he posits, is not so much killing off his political enemies as he is destroying his own host organism, the G.O.P. itself.

[emailking]

20% chance according to 538.

But still mean they probably don't unfortunately.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Democrats have won the presidential popular vote in seven of the past eight elections. In this increasingly polarized age, why would they ever be certain to lose the House without a bunch of things all going against them?
The conventional wisdom forgot how much things have changed since 2014 and 2016. The conventional wisdom was, in fact, probably always somewhat wrong.

[It's not just that you are a crook senator]

lol no

[Xing]

Sure, they could, but it’s quite unlikely.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Keep in mind Democrats were also polling very well at this time in 2014 as well

[wesmoorenerd]

If the Dems actually carried a 0.5% GCB lead into November and you were to assume a universal swing from the 2020 presidential results, the Dems would hold 215 seats when all was said and done. Granted, that includes seats like CA-45 and PA-01 that I doubt they have great odds in, but it also excludes several seats in which they have strong incumbents. It's really not too hard to chart them a path to 218. Are they favored? No, but to say that their chances are vanishingly small is arrogant and foolish.

[Adam Griffin]

Just a reminder (given that the median Atlas poster is like 20): there was a lot of this similar sentiment in the late-summer and even into the fall in 2014. Plenty of polls and data-points even in the final weeks of the 2014 campaign suggested Democrats could hold onto the Senate and possibly pickup net multiple governorships, only for the electoral hand to smack down and cause complete annihilation.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Keep in mind Democrats were also polling very well at this time in 2014 as well

What? Around this time in 2014 the GOP had a 65% chance of taking the Senate?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Keep in mind Democrats were also polling very well at this time in 2014 as well

What? Around this time in 2014 the GOP had a 65% chance of taking the Senate?

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html#polls

Look at polls in august for RCP

Now here is the senate:

IA : https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ia/iowa_senate_ernst_vs_braley-3990.html#polls

NC: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/nc/north_carolina_senate_tillis_vs_hagan-3497.html#polls

CO: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/co/colorado_senate_gardner_vs_udall-3845.html#polls


But yes the senate map in 2014 was way way better for the GOP then 2022 since they had a path to a majority in 2014 by just winning the senate races in states Romney won while this the democrats do not . The fact is though the republicans have overperformed polling since like 2014 and even 2018 which polling nailed the house result did pretty badly in the senate races .



 

[Spectator]

Keep in mind Democrats were also polling very well at this time in 2014 as well

What? Around this time in 2014 the GOP had a 65% chance of taking the Senate?

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html#polls

Look at polls in august for RCP

Now here is the senate:

IA : https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ia/iowa_senate_ernst_vs_braley-3990.html#polls

NC: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/nc/north_carolina_senate_tillis_vs_hagan-3497.html#polls

CO: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/co/colorado_senate_gardner_vs_udall-3845.html#polls


But yes the senate map in 2014 was way way better for the GOP then 2022 since they had a path to a majority in 2014 by just winning the senate races in states Romney won while this the democrats do not . The fact is though the republicans have overperformed polling since like 2014 and even 2018 which polling nailed the house result did pretty badly in the senate races .



 

Polling was accurate in 2018 in Wisconsin, Georgia, and Pennsylvania and even underestimated Democrats in Arizona and Nevada. Those are the states that matter this year for Senate.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Keep in mind Democrats were also polling very well at this time in 2014 as well

What? Around this time in 2014 the GOP had a 65% chance of taking the Senate?

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html#polls

Look at polls in august for RCP

Now here is the senate:

IA : https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ia/iowa_senate_ernst_vs_braley-3990.html#polls

NC: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/nc/north_carolina_senate_tillis_vs_hagan-3497.html#polls

CO: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/co/colorado_senate_gardner_vs_udall-3845.html#polls


But yes the senate map in 2014 was way way better for the GOP then 2022 since they had a path to a majority in 2014 by just winning the senate races in states Romney won while this the democrats do not . The fact is though the republicans have overperformed polling since like 2014 and even 2018 which polling nailed the house result did pretty badly in the senate races .



 

Polling was accurate in 2018 in Wisconsin, Georgia, and Pennsylvania and even underestimated Democrats in Arizona and Nevada. Those are the states that matter this year for Senate.

2014 was the last anti-Dem midterm year, and coalitions haven't changed at all since then. Polarization has stayed the same too.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs voted against the Inflation reduction Act citing deficits but they cut taxes, gave up assistant rental assistance, stimulus checks and 499 extra in Unemployment and Unemployment is a six month program not 2 yrs and Student Loans pauses contributes to deficit, that's why Rs are losing they are against Entitlement spending eventhough they passed Stimulus checks under Trump

What did Trump say in 2o21 right before GA runoff not 600 that Rs were gonna give us but 2K but now they are back to their cutting welfare entitlement in face of tax cuts for the rich.

UWS list all these socialist programs that Ryan voted for but Rs gave us Student Loans Pauses and Stimulus checks those are Entitlements but the budget deficits ballooned because they kept the Trip tax cuts, that's why we have massive deficits now because we didn't offset Stimulus with tax increase, this inflation Reduction Act pays for Entitlements and if D's get a Filibuster proof Senate the Warren Wealth tax takes care of the 50 K student loan Discharge

That's why they're losing whit females 55)45 non Evangelical white men and Minorities, Guess whom haves the Majority of the wealth Evangelical white men like Donald Trump 2.2/B

Do Rs even know that Student Loans Pauses contributes to deficits too, of course they do because Govt gets revenue from that and we have been in this since 2020

[MillennialModerate]

No chance. None. It would be nice though. It might literally save democracy in a way - because  they kept the house that would almost surely mean they’ve gained 1 - MAYBE 2 Senate seats.

If they gained the house and 2 seats I think that would lock in a Dem Senate for a while (via PR/DC statehood) meaning Republican trifectas would be very unlikely to happen. And it would mean more than likely there wouldn’t be enough votes to throw out electoral votes in 2024.

(Also: child care, community college, health costs lowered…so many things would be passed)

[Sir Mohamed]

No chance. None. It would be nice though. It might literally save democracy in a way - because  they kept the house that would almost surely mean they’ve gained 1 - MAYBE 2 Senate seats.

If they gained the house and 2 seats I think that would lock in a Dem Senate for a while (via PR/DC statehood) meaning Republican trifectas would be very unlikely to happen. And it would mean more than likely there wouldn’t be enough votes to throw out electoral votes in 2024.

(Also: child care, community college, health costs lowered…so many things would be passed)

Even if DC and PR were admitted as states in 2023, the GOP could still win a trifecta in 2028. Say the senate is 52-48 before and then moves to 56-48, with both new states electing Dems and 53 seats need for a majority in the 104-member chamber.

2024 could already reduce Dems to a 52-52 by losing WV, MT and one of NV, AZ or OH, with MI and PA as longshots. In 2026, the GOP can pick up one of PA or WI (assuming Fetterman and Barnes win) and in 2028, Dems couldn't gain any seat we fail this year with a GOP presidential ticket victorious. A GOP trifecta would even be possible in 2024 under certain circumstances.

All that said, I don't see Dems keeping the House this year. Perhaps we keep net losses at ~15 or so and net a senate seat.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Why is this so difficult to believe? 

I've been saying every since the draft opinion in Dobbs was released that abortion would be the single most important issue in the 2022 midterms, and that it would likely bring a lot of new blue voters to the polls that probably wouldn't even be captured by polling.  Yet most people thought this was still just business as usual.

But we have now seen several examples of this playing out in real election results.  In every special election since the Dobbs decision, Democrats have significantly overperformed both polls and 2020 baselines, often by high single digits (to say nothing of the massive polling error in the KS referendum).

Historically, polls aren't consistently biased in favor or Democrats or Republicans.  Instead, they tend to be poor at picking up new and low-propensity voters.  In 2016 and 2020, this was most often WWC Trump supporters.  But all the data over the past 2 months suggests that in 2022, this will be young, liberal women. 

My best guess is that this will mostly cancel out the usually strong midterms trends against the president's party, and we are looking at a neutral year. But a blue wave is more likely than a red one at this point.

[Yoda]

I'm more bullish on dems' chances this November than most, but simply due to gerrymandering I don't think this is possible.

If Ohio had produced a fair 8/7 map instead of 13/2 or 11/3, and if NY dems had been allowed to gerrymander their state, dems would have a decent chance of holding on. Just those two states would represent possibly as many as 15 less seats for republicans depending on how the NY map would have turned out, and they are expected to pick up at least 20. But with the current legal standard being, "republicans can gerrymander to their hearts' content in TX, OH, FL, etc etc etc but how DARE democrats do it anywhere!" I think it's just a question of how big the republicans' margin in the next Congress is going to be.

[wbrocks67]

The comparisons to 2014 need to stop, I don't see how they're prudent at all. Other than it being a midterm of a D president, that's pretty much the only similar thing.

Polarization is clearly different from 8 years ago, and there was also no major SC case taking away rights in 2014 either. (or an ex president who was still in the news just as much as the current one)

[Lief 🗽]

Things with a 10-20% chance of happening do happen 10-20% of the time, correct. But you’re still better off assuming the thing with an 80-90% chance of happening will happen instead.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Just a reminder (given that the median Atlas poster is like 20): there was a lot of this similar sentiment in the late-summer and even into the fall in 2014. Plenty of polls and data-points even in the final weeks of the 2014 campaign suggested Democrats could hold onto the Senate and possibly pickup net multiple governorships, only for the electoral hand to smack down and cause complete annihilation.

Yeah but that was a completely different year in a completely different election as all elections are. And there are some completely different dynamics at work.

[MATTROSE94]

I doubt that the Democrats keep the House in November even if the GCB was D+5. The Republicans in Texas, Florida, and Tennessee heavily gerrymandered their states to the point that there are more than enough gerrymandered seats between those three states to ensure that the Republicans at least have a 5 seat majority. Also, Tom Kean Jr. and Allen Fung are guaranteed to win their House elections easily due to their flawed Democrat opponents. Best case for Democrats if I had to guess is R+5 or 10.

[President Johnson]

Very unlikely, even in a neutral midterm environment. This could indeed be similar to 2018, with both parties gaining in each chamber.

[Coldstream]

The comparisons to 2014 need to stop, I don't see how they're prudent at all. Other than it being a midterm of a D president, that's pretty much the only similar thing.

Polarization is clearly different from 8 years ago, and there was also no major SC case taking away rights in 2014 either. (or an ex president who was still in the news just as much as the current one)

Agreed. There was nothing holding the Republicans back in 2014, in 2022 they have Trump as de facto Leader of the Opposition - his approval ratings may well affect the GOP as much as Biden’s do the Democrats.

[Tekken_Guy]

I doubt that the Democrats keep the House in November even if the GCB was D+5. The Republicans in Texas, Florida, and Tennessee heavily gerrymandered their states to the point that there are more than enough gerrymandered seats between those three states to ensure that the Republicans at least have a 5 seat majority. Also, Tom Kean Jr. and Allen Fung are guaranteed to win their House elections easily due to their flawed Democrat opponents. Best case for Democrats if I had to guess is R+5 or 10.

Actually Democrats probably keep the house on a D+5. Also Allan Fung isn't guaranteed to win.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I don't think there is enough of a chance of Dems holding the House to make the scenario worthwhile of discussion, but I do think they might at least manage to hold enough seats to make the House essentially ungovernable for the next two years.