Democrats Could Even Keep the House This November

[Koharu]

Pretty sure I will end up disappointed instead.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't think there is enough of a chance of Dems holding the House to make the scenario worthwhile of discussion, but I do think they might at least manage to hold enough seats to make the House essentially ungovernable for the next two years.

.do you know it's a range of 235/210RH seats and a range of 53/47D Sen seats nothing is inevitable and we still have 70 days left until EDay

I keep saying this it's a 50 chance we get DIVIDED GOVT and 40% chance of Secular Trifecta all odds are better than an RCongress which has a 0/10%  chance

[ProgressiveModerate]

I doubt that the Democrats keep the House in November even if the GCB was D+5. The Republicans in Texas, Florida, and Tennessee heavily gerrymandered their states to the point that there are more than enough gerrymandered seats between those three states to ensure that the Republicans at least have a 5 seat majority. Also, Tom Kean Jr. and Allen Fung are guaranteed to win their House elections easily due to their flawed Democrat opponents. Best case for Democrats if I had to guess is R+5 or 10.

Even with Republican gerrymandering the median seat was 2 points to the right of the nation using 2020 Pres as a baseline; you get a similar result using 2016 as a baseline. A D + 5 environment would almost certainly flip the House barring something strange.

While NJ-07 seems like a pretty likely R flip, I would be hesitant to say RI-02 is anything close to a guaranteed R flip. For reference, RI-02 was Biden + 14 in 2020 which is a pretty solid buffer for Dems and if they're going to win the House, they almost certainly would've won this seat.

I don't think picking out individual examples of races where Republicans will likely outperform partisanship and then listing 3 gerrymanders is a very solid case as for why it's close to impossible for Ds to win the House. If I said Democrats will hold the House because they gerrymandered Illinois and Kaptur could hold her Trump district is that compelling at all? No.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I keep saying this it's a range of 235(/210RH seats and 50/56 Senate seats IA, MO and UT aren't in play anymore

It's likely an RH with 52/48 Sen and a D Stan with 56 D Senate seats but D's can wind up with 54 Senate seats OH and NC and an RH but the Election is on the D's momentum now not Rs

If Fox have Fetterman and BLK Barnes up we are gonna win them, because we know Fox news isn't an R network it's an Evangelical network they are both D and R otherwise Blk Barnes wouldn't be ahead on their network
.Fox news even said Beasley and Demings can win at same time DeSantis is gonna win

[Greedo punched first]

Did Biden win the new NJ-07?

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

At the very least, we should keep the House close enough to easily regain in 2024, unlike in 2010/2012.

[MATTROSE94]

Did Biden win the new NJ-07?

I think Joe Biden won it by 9 iirc. Tom Malinowski underperformed Joe Biden by almost 4, so in a more favorable year like 2022, Tom Kean Jr. is the heavy favorite. Not to mention that Tom Malinowski has a lot of ethical issues. 

[ProgressiveModerate]

Did Biden win the new NJ-07?

I think Joe Biden won it by 9 iirc. Tom Malinowski underperformed Joe Biden by almost 4, so in a more favorable year like 2022, Tom Kean Jr. is the heavy favorite. Not to mention that Tom Malinowski has a lot of ethical issues.  

He won the old NJ-07 by~ 10. The new NJ-07 is a Trump-Biden district that Biden won by about 4%. (In exchange Dems shored up NJ-05 and 11 to be safer)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/4f86c606-561f-4e65-9805-d9aad3772e3d

This map I compiled shows how all districts voted for 2020 pres.

This exposes Malinowski's problem. He only barely won in 2020 in a district that was much more politically favorable, and 2022 will likely be a worse year for Dems nationally than 2020.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Their chances definitely increased, but that was from an exceedingly low chance to begin with.

It was probably no better than 5% for most of the year, briefly rose to 10% with the New York gerrymander, then dipped back down to 5% after that map was overturned. But between an improving national environment and some nomination fails by the GOP I do think that 20% is a realistic chance for them to keep the House.

I'm not holding my breath for it though. And after how this year appeared to look most of the time I will accept losing the House, perhaps fairly narrowly, if we get to keep the Senate still.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The problem for them is the house majority is just too thin. Even a D+1 year would probably see them lose control. For Dems to win they will need to match or exceed 2020 levels which is unlikely.

[Orser67]

I think there's a maybe a 10% chance or so, but personally, I'll be happy if House Democrats can keep losses under ~20 and be fairly well-positioned to re-take the House in 2024.

[It’s so Joever]

If Democrats somehow keep the house my account will turn into a Sean Patrick Maloney fanpage for a couple months at least.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The problem for them is the house majority is just too thin. Even a D+1 year would probably see them lose control. For Dems to win they will need to match or exceed 2020 levels which is unlikely.

They just have to win by about 2% nationally. It seems probable they'll do worse than that but it's certainly in the range of plausibility.

I honestly think their current majority size doesn't matter much though because of polarization and redistricting. Going into 2018, Rs having a pretty large majority was notable because many of those incumbents were able to have significant overperformances in 2016 and it was on the same maps. There were few members on either side who had solid overperformances in 2020.

[Utah Neolib]

It’s not quite impossible but you shouldn’t get your hopes up for it. Democrats need a D+3 or D+4 GCB lead to hold the house and barring unforeseen events, it probably won’t happen. This is a midterm, a usually bad year for the president’s party. The last time the party holding the White House held the house was when 9/11 happened.

[Ogre Mage]

The chance of this happening has improved but the odds are still clearly against it.  Based on current conditions, I would bet the GOP will take control of the House.  The redistricting/gerrymandering map still disadvantages Democrats and candidate quality matters considerably less in House races compared to Senate races.

[Devils30]

Tomorrow's election will be interesting, although local factors influence these specials more. Always a chance Molinaro runs up margins in Dutchess and wins this way. Of course with the new NY-19 not including his old elected territory, it's possible Dems lose tomorrow and win both NY-18 and 19 in November.

Of course Ryan could follow the NE-1, MN-1 pattern in Lincoln and Rochester and get 63% in Ulster for all we know.

[coloradocowboi]

The 2014 comparison isn't just bad, it's divorced from reality. Republicans won white, college-educated voters 57-41 in 2014. That isn't happening this year. In fact, they aren't winning them at all. And guess who is a lot more likely to turn up to vote this year than some Bubba who only voted in 2020 cuz he was mad that he had to wear a facemask to the grocery store.

I think candidate quality really matters. If LaLota wins tonight, Likely R bordering on Safe. If Bond wins, it's Lean R at best. Joe Kent, Yesli Vega,  JR Majewski... It's almost like the GOP did what it could to sabotage the wave that could have been.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The 2014 comparison isn't just bad, it's divorced from reality. Republicans won white, college-educated voters 57-41 in 2014. That isn't happening this year. In fact, they aren't winning them at all. And guess who is a lot more likely to turn up to vote this year than some Bubba who only voted in 2020 cuz he was mad that he had to wear a facemask to the grocery store.

I think candidate quality really matters. If LaLota wins tonight, Likely R bordering on Safe. If Bond wins, it's Lean R at best. Joe Kent, Yesli Vega,  JR Majewski... It's almost like the GOP did what it could to sabotage the wave that could have been.

Tbf at face value Vega seemed like a pretty solid GOP canidate: headed a County which is pretty blue at this point, is a woman of color, law enforcement background, ect. It's really been her herself who has been making things harder than they have to be.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The 2014 comparison isn't just bad, it's divorced from reality. Republicans won white, college-educated voters 57-41 in 2014. That isn't happening this year. In fact, they aren't winning them at all. And guess who is a lot more likely to turn up to vote this year than some Bubba who only voted in 2020 cuz he was mad that he had to wear a facemask to the grocery store.

I think candidate quality really matters. If LaLota wins tonight, Likely R bordering on Safe. If Bond wins, it's Lean R at best. Joe Kent, Yesli Vega,  JR Majewski... It's almost like the GOP did what it could to sabotage the wave that could have been.

The 2014 argument also ignores the defining trait of that year's general elections: completely cratered Democratic turnout. This year, post-Dobbs that doesn't seem like it's going to be the case. Both party's bases appear fired up and it's going to be up to true Independents and undecideds ultimately to decide, and environmental factors aren't making it all that apparent who they'll skew towards anymore, whereas three months ago it looked inevitable that they would back Republicans.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

If the GOP don't pick up the House it would have been the biggest electoral throw since ... Dewey beats Truman? Like, that would be a "ritualistic suicide is the only honourable response" event.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/democratic-house-senate-campaign-committees-192634844.html

Democratic H and Sen campaigns outpaces Rs

[Spectator]

If the GOP don't pick up the House it would have been the biggest electoral throw since ... Dewey beats Truman? Like, that would be a "ritualistic suicide is the only honourable response" event.

It seems increasingly possible Republicans may blow their shot at the House. NY-19 is a big black eye, no excuse about it. Molinaro should have won. Strong candidate on paper and better funded. But Ryan still did even better than Biden did despite that.

[Sir Mohamed]

If the GOP don't pick up the House it would have been the biggest electoral throw since ... Dewey beats Truman? Like, that would be a "ritualistic suicide is the only honourable response" event.

Yup, pretty much. And they would learn nothing from it that embracing Trump and his cult has no appeal outside the hardcore base. He already lost them the House, Senate and White House in a matter of 4 years. Last prez to achieve this was Hoover.

That said, I don't want to get my hopes up. There's still a ~ 8/10 chance for an R majority. It may just end up not as big as expected. Who knows, Dems might have a shot to take it back in 2024 if Biden wins reelection (though the senate will probably be gone then).

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

There certainly is a path for them, but it’s very narrow

[Devils30]

If the GOP don't pick up the House it would have been the biggest electoral throw since ... Dewey beats Truman? Like, that would be a "ritualistic suicide is the only honourable response" event.

It seems increasingly possible Republicans may blow their shot at the House. NY-19 is a big black eye, no excuse about it. Molinaro should have won. Strong candidate on paper and better funded. But Ryan still did even better than Biden did despite that.

Dems are going to beat Bacon in NE-2, Chabot in OH-1 and Malinowski could survive NJ-7. The GOP better hope for additional Hispanic gains on top of 2020. I would also take a second look at Steel in CA-45, Salazar in FL-27 after the Dobbs ruling.

NJ-7 is about 50% college instead of 30% and Kean is basically Molinaro.