I think there are several categories to this:
-Minority voters, particularly Cubans, who tend to be predisposed to back incumbents though may generally lean Dem otherwise. These voters likely break for DeSantis given he is the incumbent
-Swing/politically "moderate" voters who felt like Gillum and Trump were best in their respective races. May have liked Trump's style but Gillums policies better. These voters likely break DeSantis given how he's tied himself to Trump
-Voters who just went with the wave, have mixed feelings on Trump, so wanted to send a message in 2018 even if they ultimatley voted for him. These voters likely break DeSantis given 2022 is a check on Biden and these voters didn't even vote for him to begin with
-People who actually changed political beliefs during that time, who likely break DeSantis given their more recent political state is what they are more likely currently in if not moved further right
-People who randomly fill out their ballot. Likely break DeSantis cause the FL GOP always seems to get lucky on this kind of stuff.
So overall def DeSantis.
Also Fuzzy Bear (who's probably closest to the second category of the ones you've listed, although he's less "moderate" and more "vaguely communitarian in a way that's unusually well-catered-to by the Trumpian brand of politics in particular").
"May generally lean Dem otherwise" is not how I would describe Florida Cubans at all, although if you're comparing them to, like, certain kinds of ex-Soviet dissidents, you might have a point.
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