Alberta (Canada) UCP leadership race

[Benjamin Frank]

https://twitter.com/davecournoyer/status/1539235801418108930

[Njall]

For those who haven't been following this race yet, here's a summary:

Key Dates:

• July 20: Deadline for candidates to submit their applications, including a $150,000 entry fee, a $25,000 compliance deposit, and signatures of at least 1,000 members
• August 12: Membership sales cut-off
• September 2: Ballot packages mailed to members
• October 3: Deadline for ballot packages to be received
• October 6: Members who didn't vote by mail can vote at one of five in-person voting stations. The results of the race will also be announced that day.

The following candidates have entered the race so far:

Leela Aheer: MLA for Chestermere-Strathmore since 2015, initially elected as a Wildrose MLA. She was previously the UCP Deputy Leader, and was Minister of Culture, Multiculturalism and Status of Women from 2019-2021 before Kenney booted her from caucus after she publicly criticized him. Despite her previous Wildrose affiliation, she's seen as being more of a moderate within the party, especially on social issues.

Brian Jean: MLA for Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche since 2022. Was previously MLA for Fort McMurray-Conklin from 2015-2017, Wildrose Leader and Official Opposition Leader from 2015-2017, and MP for Fort McMurray--Athabasca from 2004-2014. He ran in the first UCP leadership in 2017, placing second to Kenney with a little over 30% of the vote. Over the last 12-18 months, he emerged as a vocal critic of Kenney, explicitly running as an opponent of Kenney even as the UCP by-election candidate in Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche. He is running on a platform of Alberta autonomy, and currently has the support of two UCP (and former Wildrose) MLAs from northern Alberta.

Tood Loewen: MLA for Central Peace-Notley (previously Grande Prairie-Smoky) since 2015, initially elected as a Wildrose MLA. He was amongst the group of rural MLAs who believed that Kenney's COVID measures were too strict, as was expelled from the UCP caucus in 2021 after resigning as Caucus Chair and calling for Kenney's resignation.

Bill Rock: Mayor of the Village of Amisk. Little info is available about him, aside from that he wants to be a voice for rural Alberta in the leadership race. He was a Wildrose candidate in 2015.

Rajan Sawhney: MLA for Calgary-North East since 2019. She was most recently Minister of Transportation, and served as Minister of Community and Social Services before then. In an interesting contrast, she is branding herself as a moderate centre-right choice, but her only current MLA supporter is Airdrie-East MLA Angela Pitt, who is amongst the most conservative (or probably more accurately, most libertarian) members of the caucus. Sawhney's campaign is being managed by Ken Bossenkool, a prominent conservative academic and strategist who was a co-author of the Alberta "firewall letter" a couple decades ago, and more recently served as Chief of Staff to Christy Clark in BC.

Rebecca Schulz: MLA for Calgary-Shaw since 2019. She most recently served as Minister of Children's Services. Before she was elected in Alberta, she lived in Saskatchewan and worked for then-Premier Brad Wall, who is supporting her campaign. She has also been endorsed by former CPC Interim Leader Rona Ambrose, MPs Laila Goodridge and Stephanie Kusie, and MLAs Jason Copping, Michaela Frey, and Jeremy Nixon. Schulz very much strikes me as being your classic suburban Calgary business conservative.

Danielle Smith: Former Wildrose Party Leader from 2009-2014, MLA for Highwood from 2012-2015, and Leader of the Official Opposition from 2012-2014. Famously led the 2014 mass floor-crossing from the Wildrose to the PC caucus, and subsequently lost her bid for the Highwood PC nomination and left politics to pursue a career in media. As a media personality in recent years, she has had a tendency to push certain conspiracy theories and disinformation, and was a fierce critic of the Kenney government's COVID response. Smith is strongly libertarian and is one of the candidates who is focused on Alberta autonomy, including calling for the passage of an Alberta Sovereignty Act to let Alberta "opt out" of federal laws that it disagrees with.

Travis Toews: MLA for Grande Prairie-Wapiti since 2019, and Finance Minister since 2019. He's a firm fiscal and social conservative, but doesn't dive into more inflammatory rhetoric nearly as quickly as some of his fellow candidates and caucus members. He's seen as the continuity candidate, with numerous staffers and others from Kenney's orbit lining up behind him. It's also generally understood that Kenney gave him his blessing to run. Toews launched his campaign with the support of 23 current UCP MLAs, including 10 members of cabinet, and also has the support of CPC MPs Arnold Viersen and Chris Warkentin.

[RogueBeaver]

MRG is out.

[Njall]

In a weird Alberta political moment, former Liberal Leader and MLA Dr. Raj Sherman (who was initially a PC MLA before crossing the floor and becoming Liberal Leader) was rejected as a candidate for not holding a UCP membership for at least six months. But now he says he'll attempt to run anyways.

[Benjamin Frank]

Doesn't really fit here, but since Michelle Rempel Garner was brought up:

https://twitter.com/Gray_Mackenzie/status/1540153657374785538
OK, I brought her up the first time, but it does somewhat fit here as it was apparently Michelle Rempel Garner's press release stating why she wasn't running for the leadership of the Alberta United Conservative Party that annoyed/was the final straw for a number of Federal Conservative M.Ps.  

I don't know if this is going anywhere, but despite the moderately positive reaction to her potential leadership bid (with her as leader, a poll showed the UCP tied with the NDP, where as the present UCP trailed the NDP by 5%), Michelle Rempel Garner seems to have burned her bridges with conservatives at both the provincial and federal level.

[Хahar 🤔]

It's been a wild ride for Danielle Smith. Three years ago she was writing a column praising Rachel Notley and the NDP government and now she's a hard right-wing candidate again. She's seeking to unseat the UCP incumbent in the riding immediately south of her old one, so who knows how that nomination will turn out.

Toews and his low-key campaign feel like weird fits for the mood of a party that just ran out Jason Kenney, but he seems like the only serious candidate left of Brian Jean. If the many right-wing contenders keep screeching about Alberta sovereignty, presumably that's good for Toews.

[Njall]

On Smith's nomination race, while she was previously the MLA for Highwood, the pre-2019 boundary redistribution actually moved her home town of High River into Livingstone-Macleod. At over 14,000 people, High River is the largest municipality in Livingstone-Macleod now and accounts for around 30% of the riding's population, so she's been the MLA for part of the riding previously. The incumbent MLA has also been pretty unremarkable backbencher, but I'm not too sure what his reputation is like on the ground in his riding.

Also, speaking of Alberta sovereignty, there was a UCP leadership panel yesterday with seven of the candidates, hosted by the Free Alberta Strategy and the Alberta Institute. Anyone interested can see the video of the panel on their Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/FreeAlbertaStrategy/videos/?ref=page_internal.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Something worth noting when talking about ABpoli is that, while as a province it has moved to the left, it's not as dramatic a shift as some think. Let's look at the combined left-of-centre vote in this century:

2001: 35.7%
2004: 42.4%
2008: 39.5%
2012: 20.1% (exceptional situation - Wildrose was leading the polls, so many Lib/NDP voters held their noses and voted PC)
2015: 45.3%
2019: 34.1%

(21st century average: 36.2%, 39.4% if we disregard the weird 2012 election)

And if we go federal:

2000: 27.1%
2004: 37.9%
2006: 33.4%
2008: 32.9%
2011: 31.4%
2015: 38.7%
2019: 28.2%
2021: 35.5%

(21st century average: 33.1%)

From this, we can conclude two things:

1. The Alberta left is generally more popular than the national left. Similar phenomenon as many red states.
2. There hasn't really been a meaningful realignment of Alberta politics. The right still dominates public opinion in Alberta.

What has changed is that the Liberals are all but defunct and their votes have gone to the NDP (and I imagine the ABP, who I wouldn't charactarize as being on the left), while the right has yet to fully recover from the Wildrose/PC split. Kenney united the factions for about five minutes, but Covid screwed that up. But if we look at the polls right now, while the left is doing better than the 21st century average, they are still in the minority. A united Alberta right will defeat a united Alberta left.

A UCP leader who can unify the broad spectrum of centre-right to right-wing voters will easily win the next election, the question is, can anybody do that? Danielle Smith for example would probably screw this up by alienating the old PC wing (or anyone who, you know, identifies as a Canadian and doesn't want Alberta to start a bloodless civil war with Canada).

Alberta is a good case study for whether the right can stay united in Canada. There's a stereotype of AB Tories as being a coalition of religious wackjobs, sovereign citizen types, and climate deniers. And while this is probably more the case in Alberta than elsewhere, the Alberta right has always been a big family. Going as far back as Peter Lougheed, there has always been a more urbane, socially liberal faction within the right in Alberta. Probably even more so now, as Calgary has grown more multicultural and cosmopolitan - still attached to the Conservative brand (remember, the UCP did better here in 2019 than in freakin' Lethbridge!), but more detached from rural Alberta conservatism than before. It's emblematic that the highest-profile Calgary CPC MP (Rempel Garner) is basically a Liberal on social issues, kinda insane to imagine she's part of the same caucus from the same province as Arnold Viersen and Rachael Harder.

Bottom line is, the Alberta right encompasses most of the ideological diversity we see in the Canadian conservative movement, all the way from urban pride-marching business tories, to the suburban socially-conservative fiscally-moderate immigrants, to rural gun-loving evangelicals - really the only missing element is Francophone conservatism, and in the absence of a Quebec-based CPC leader, I don't think this is even an accessible demo for the CPC. If the next UCP leader finds a way to keep the incoherently big blue tent together, it could be a good blueprint (pun intended) for the federal party.

[EastAnglianLefty]

There's also the issue that the left's vote in Alberta is better distributed - to win a majority, they basically need to run the table in Edmonton and Calgary and if they do that there will be fewer ridings in the city centres where they'll get more than 65% than there are rural ridings where the right will get that score even when they're losing. It'll never happen, but Alberta is one place where proportional representation would probably help the right.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

There's also the issue that the left's vote in Alberta is better distributed - to win a majority, they basically need to run the table in Edmonton and Calgary and if they do that there will be fewer ridings in the city centres where they'll get more than 65% than there are rural ridings where the right will get that score even when they're losing. It'll never happen, but Alberta is one place where proportional representation would probably help the right.

Notley making inroads into Calgary is a huge factor in this. Before Calgary became left-accessible, the left vote was very inefficient in Alberta, as it was highly concentrated in Edmonton. Even in 2015, Calgary voting largely NDP was more a function of the deadly split on the right - unlike Edmonton, where they were genuinely very popular and pulled off nuclear margins. But in 2019, even as the province as a whole swung against the NDP, 14/26 Calgary seats showed a positive swing towards the NDP relative to the UCP (the latter compared to WR+PC). While a part of this is probably just Calgary growing more cosmopolitan, it's worth noting that in the federal election held that very same year, all Calgary seats trended right, at an average swing of +9.6 CPC. In other words, not only did Notley successfully consolidate the residual Liberal vote in Calgary (which wasn't the hard part), she made inroads into the federal Tory vote.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

So what's up with the race? Polling (which isn't usually that good for leadership elections anyway) seems to suggest a Jean-Smith fight, but Travis Toews is leading on endorsements. Jean only has two MLAs and Smith has one (although interestingly Jean is backed by Peter MacKay, pretty surprised by that. And Schulz has two big names in Rona Ambrose and Brad Wall backing her. What's the feel on the ground, are we headed for a Jean-Smith-Toews contest?

[Njall]

So what's up with the race? Polling (which isn't usually that good for leadership elections anyway) seems to suggest a Jean-Smith fight, but Travis Toews is leading on endorsements. Jean only has two MLAs and Smith has one (although interestingly Jean is backed by Peter MacKay, pretty surprised by that. And Schulz has two big names in Rona Ambrose and Brad Wall backing her. What's the feel on the ground, are we headed for a Jean-Smith-Toews contest?

Based on what I've seen, as well as conversations with current and former UCP staffers at stampede events over the last week, it actually appears to be shaping up to be a Smith-Toews race, with Schulz in a relatively strong third. In my opinion, Jean's relatively strong polling numbers are more a result of name recognition than anything else. His campaign has been slow to get off the ground and Smith has outflanked him on Alberta autonomy issues, leaving Jean in an awkward position of being anti-establishment but also "not critical enough" of the status-quo, both in terms of government policy as well as the federal-provincial relationship. The general feeling right now is that Smith is the frontrunner in the race, although with the caveat that depending on who makes it on the ballot, Smith is likely to see a high degree of first-ballot support but may struggle to pick up votes from other candidates as they get eliminated (since it's a ranked ballot). For example, voters for Toews and Schulz (and other more minor candidates like Sawhney and Aheer) are going to be more likely to preference these other candidates after their first choice, as opposed to Smith.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

So what's up with the race? Polling (which isn't usually that good for leadership elections anyway) seems to suggest a Jean-Smith fight, but Travis Toews is leading on endorsements. Jean only has two MLAs and Smith has one (although interestingly Jean is backed by Peter MacKay, pretty surprised by that. And Schulz has two big names in Rona Ambrose and Brad Wall backing her. What's the feel on the ground, are we headed for a Jean-Smith-Toews contest?

Based on what I've seen, as well as conversations with current and former UCP staffers at stampede events over the last week, it actually appears to be shaping up to be a Smith-Toews race, with Schulz in a relatively strong third. In my opinion, Jean's relatively strong polling numbers are more a result of name recognition than anything else. His campaign has been slow to get off the ground and Smith has outflanked him on Alberta autonomy issues, leaving Jean in an awkward position of being anti-establishment but also "not critical enough" of the status-quo, both in terms of government policy as well as the federal-provincial relationship. The general feeling right now is that Smith is the frontrunner in the race, although with the caveat that depending on who makes it on the ballot, Smith is likely to see a high degree of first-ballot support but may struggle to pick up votes from other candidates as they get eliminated (since it's a ranked ballot). For example, voters for Toews and Schulz (and other more minor candidates like Sawhney and Aheer) are going to be more likely to preference these other candidates after their first choice, as opposed to Smith.

Interesting - so Smith is kind of in a 2020 Peter MacKay situation where she's the frontrunner, but the ranked ballot may lead to an anti-Smith consolidation.

[Njall]

Yesterday was the deadline for leadership candidates to submit their nomination signatures and at least $75,000 of the total $175,000 entry fee + compliance deposit. So far, the UCP have approved Jean, Smith, and Toews as official candidates. Aheer, Loewen, Sawhney, and Schulz all say that they have also submitted the required signatures and money, and are just waiting on the party to verify their documents.

We also saw an interesting intervention into the race yesterday by Finance Minister Jason Nixon (a staunch conservative and close Kenney ally), criticizing Danielle Smith's proposed Alberta Sovereignty Act as unrealistic and problematic for the UCP. Nixon hasn't explicitly endorsed in the race yet, but has spoken favourably of both Travis Toews and Rebecca Schulz.

[Njall]

The UCP are having their first leadership debate in Medicine Hat today. They are livestreaming on Facebook and their Website, and will have a recording up afterwards.

Also, as expected, Leela Aheer, Todd Loewen, Rajan Sawhney, and Rebecca Schulz were all accepted as official candidates, bringing this race to seven candidates total.

[DL]

While Jean may not win the race, he will still get a significant number of votes - and i would think that UCP members who have Jean as first choice would be more like to have Smith as their second choice over a Kenney-supporter/clone like Toews

[Benjamin Frank]

While Jean may not win the race, he will still get a significant number of votes - and i would think that UCP members who have Jean as first choice would be more like to have Smith as their second choice over a Kenney-supporter/clone like Toews

According to DaveBerta, Brian Jean's campaign has been flat.  Not that Daveberta himself has said anything to back this up, but this is my guess of the results of the first ballot (if the leadership vote was today, anyway.)

Danielle Smith 30%
Travis Toews 20%
Rebecca Schulz 20%
Brian Jean 15%
Rajan Sawhney 10%
Todd Loewen 3%
Leela Aheer 2%

[Njall]

While Jean may not win the race, he will still get a significant number of votes - and i would think that UCP members who have Jean as first choice would be more like to have Smith as their second choice over a Kenney-supporter/clone like Toews

According to DaveBerta, Brian Jean's campaign has been flat.  Not that Daveberta himself has said anything to back this up, but this is my guess of the results of the first ballot (if the leadership vote was today, anyway.)

Danielle Smith 30%
Travis Toews 20%
Rebecca Schulz 20%
Brian Jean 15%
Rajan Sawhney 10%
Todd Loewen 3%
Leela Aheer 2%

Honestly, those figures are pretty close to what I'd guess as well. I'd also assume that the consolidations in subsequent rounds would be Smith+Jean+Loewen vs Toews+Schulz+Sawhney+Aheer. Under that assumption, we'd end up with a final round of Toews/Schulz slightly besting Smith, somewhat like how Scheer beat Bernier in the 2017 CPC leadership.

EDIT: as far as it comes to Jean, I've been seeing his campaign kinda fall flat as well. His issue is that he'd been active in Alberta autonomist spaces criticizing Kenney pre-leadership, but by coming out early and stronger on those issues, Smith has usurped his oxygen.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

The only thing funnier than Jean winning and then giving the equivalent of the Golden Cleric speech from Father Ted would be Jean falling completely flat despite being the obvious frontrunner and Danielle Smith of all people getting it instead, so I support it.

[Njall]

Today is the cutoff for membership sales!

The Western Standard held a "frontrunners forum" earlier this week featuring Brian Jean, Danielle Smith, and Travis Toews. I've linked the video here.

Since the last week of July, we've also seen Danielle Smith picking up more MLA endorsements, bringing her total to seven. MLAs Nate Glubish (Minister of Service Alberta) and Pat Rehn have switched their support from Toews to Smith, and she also gained endorsements from previously unaligned MLAs Devin Dreeshen, Kaycee Madu (Minister of Labour and Immigration), and Nathan Neudorf. MLA Angela Pitt has also left her role as Campaign Chair for Rajan Sawhney, referencing a need to get back to supporting the interests of her constituents, and knowing her past positions on issues like Alberta autonomy, I wouldn't be surprised to see her jump on the Smith bandwagon.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

https://mobile.twitter.com/davecournoyer/status/1558090017070690304

Not worth making a thread over, but just want to bring to attention that nominations for the Alberta Liberal Party elections are closing in about two hours, and they have got literally no candidates.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://mobile.twitter.com/davecournoyer/status/1558090017070690304
Not worth making a thread over, but just want to bring to attention that nominations for the Alberta Liberal Party elections are closing in about two hours, and they have got literally no candidates.

I don't get why the Alberta Liberals are still limbering along. They're not going to replace the NDP as the main anti-Conservative option, and they're most certainly not going to replace the UCP as the main anti-NDP option. If the idea is to present a solid centrist third party like the Lib Dems to keep both the UCP and NDP in check, wouldn't they be better off merging with the Alberta Party?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

While Jean may not win the race, he will still get a significant number of votes - and i would think that UCP members who have Jean as first choice would be more like to have Smith as their second choice over a Kenney-supporter/clone like Toews

According to DaveBerta, Brian Jean's campaign has been flat.  Not that Daveberta himself has said anything to back this up, but this is my guess of the results of the first ballot (if the leadership vote was today, anyway.)

Danielle Smith 30%
Travis Toews 20%
Rebecca Schulz 20%
Brian Jean 15%
Rajan Sawhney 10%
Todd Loewen 3%
Leela Aheer 2%

Honestly, those figures are pretty close to what I'd guess as well. I'd also assume that the consolidations in subsequent rounds would be Smith+Jean+Loewen vs Toews+Schulz+Sawhney+Aheer. Under that assumption, we'd end up with a final round of Toews/Schulz slightly besting Smith, somewhat like how Scheer beat Bernier in the 2017 CPC leadership.

EDIT: as far as it comes to Jean, I've been seeing his campaign kinda fall flat as well. His issue is that he'd been active in Alberta autonomist spaces criticizing Kenney pre-leadership, but by coming out early and stronger on those issues, Smith has usurped his oxygen.

Would Jean supporters be likely to go over to Smith?

[MaxQue]

https://mobile.twitter.com/davecournoyer/status/1558090017070690304
Not worth making a thread over, but just want to bring to attention that nominations for the Alberta Liberal Party elections are closing in about two hours, and they have got literally no candidates.

I don't get why the Alberta Liberals are still limbering along. They're not going to replace the NDP as the main anti-Conservative option, and they're most certainly not going to replace the UCP as the main anti-NDP option. If the idea is to present a solid centrist third party like the Lib Dems to keep both the UCP and NDP in check, wouldn't they be better off merging with the Alberta Party?

That would mean accepting the Alberta Party is centrist.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://mobile.twitter.com/davecournoyer/status/1558090017070690304
Not worth making a thread over, but just want to bring to attention that nominations for the Alberta Liberal Party elections are closing in about two hours, and they have got literally no candidates.

I don't get why the Alberta Liberals are still limbering along. They're not going to replace the NDP as the main anti-Conservative option, and they're most certainly not going to replace the UCP as the main anti-NDP option. If the idea is to present a solid centrist third party like the Lib Dems to keep both the UCP and NDP in check, wouldn't they be better off merging with the Alberta Party?

That would mean accepting the Alberta Party is centrist.

But...they are? I mean, "centrist" depends on where you believe the centre to be, but in an Alberta split between UCP and NDP, I would think both the AP and ALP would fit into a broadly centrist category. Granted I don't know much about the minor parties in Alberta, is it the case that Liberals and Alberta party have bad blood?