Alberta (Canada) UCP leadership race

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/craigbaird/status/1578215436189331456

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/alberta_ucp/status/1578216614134435840

[Benjamin Frank]

4th ballot
Danielle Smith 46.21%
Travis Toews 31.92
Brian Jean 13.50
Rebecca Schulz 8.37

Rebecca Schulz drops off.

Even if nobody who supported Schulz went to Danielle Smith, Smith needs only about 1/3 of the Jean supporters to win. I'd say it's likely she'll win, but this is going to be a very narrow win.

[brucejoel99]

Given the way that round just went for Smith, Rachel Notley may be due some early congratulations.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

4th ballot
Danielle Smith 46.21%
Travis Toews 31.92
Brian Jean 13.50
Rebecca Schulz 8.37

Rebecca Schulz drops off.

Figured that Loewen dropping would bump Smith. Schulz definitely won't put her over the top, so this will likely go to the final ballot where a large minority of Jean voters put Smith over 50%.

[beaver2.0]

And we will go to a sixth ballot.  Smith is at 47.73 now

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The way that round just went for Smith, Rachel Notley may be due some early congratulations.

Loewen's downballot support was always going to help Smith, so I'm not surprised. Schulz voters will do Smith no favours, she's very much in the Toews camp.

But with her huge lead right now, even a small percentage of Jean voters will put her over the top. So this probably goes to the final round for a 52-53% Smith victory. At that point, yes, Rachel Notley will be due some congratulations.

[Benjamin Frank]

5th ballot
Danielle Smith 47.73% 39,270
Travis Toews 37.43 30,794
Brian Jean 14.83 12,203

Brian Jean drops off.

This probably won't be quite as close as I thought it would be a few minutes ago. More like Smith at 55%. The realocated support from the other five candidates will likely end up splitting about 50/50.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Only 16% of Jean's downballot support will be needed to put Smith over the top.

Yeah, this is over.

[Benjamin Frank]

https://twitter.com/craigbaird/status/1578215436189331456

This is all due to technical reasons though that without an actual delegated convention that one party is dropped at a time. if this had been a delegated convention, either all the 5 also rans would have dropped off after the first ballot, or at most it would have gone to a third ballot.

The people who make these claims are, I think, comparing apples to oranges with delegated comventions vs. one member one vote instant runoff conventions.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/alanna_smithh/status/1578219623329460225https://twitter.com/alberta_ucp/status/1578220183839444992

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Sighs oh, Alberta...

[Benjamin Frank]

Just a reminder: Danielle Smith is not only either crazy or a liar, but she has extreme right wing economic views including having been a shill for 'big tobacco.'

Only right wing voters could bring back somebody who deserves to be consigned to the trashbin of history.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Relatively is Smith to the right of say DeSantis cause he nullify federal laws seems even to the right of the vast majority of Republican governors here

[Benjamin Frank]

Relatively is Smith to the right of say DeSantis

Lets put it this way. After saying in her victory speech of Alberta sovereignty over Canada, she then said that 'no longer will Canada stop pipelines.' Except it hasn't really been 'Canada' it's been the provinces of Quebec and British Columbia, and the government of Canada won over British Columbia in its court case to prevent the pipeline.

If Alberta has 'sovereignty' over the demands of Canada, how can British Columbia and Quebec not similarly have 'sovereignty' to block pipelines over their territory?

This woman is insane, a liar and/or an idiot.

[brucejoel99]

Relatively is Smith to the right of say DeSantis cause he nullify federal laws seems even to the right of the vast majority of Republican governors here

Think less DeSantis, more Kari Lake: vapid on policy but always sure to be on-point with the base, like somebody who's, say, 100% all-in on hydroxychloroquine & Trump-like climate change-denial.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Relatively is Smith to the right of say DeSantis

Hard to say, she's more left on social issues, and frankly neither Smith nor DeSantis have particularly clear economic principles so I can't compare.

Left/right aside, I would say Smith is relatively more radical, in the sense that her views are more out of the mainstream than DeSantis' views in their relative contexts.

[Хahar 🤔]

Extremely bellicose speech from Danielle Smith, which is funny for those of us who remember just three years ago when she all but endorsed the NDP. Biggest cheers of the night for the anti-vaccine portion of her speech, which is a reminder that that was a big issue in this campaign.

[Benjamin Frank]

Liz Truss might be the best comparison, although Danielle Smith seems to be more of an extrovert than Truss.

[Independents for Nihilism]

I wish the province of British Columbia luck when Smith's shock troops begin the long march to the sea.

https://mobile.twitter.com/abdaniellesmith/status/1194693739802849280?lang=fr

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Liz Truss might be the best comparison, although Danielle Smith seems to be more of an extrovert than Truss.

In some ways, although Truss is a team player. Smith is many things, but certainly not a team player (reason #999999 why she's going to be a disaster)

[OSR stands with Israel]

Relatively is Smith to the right of say DeSantis cause he nullify federal laws seems even to the right of the vast majority of Republican governors here

Think less DeSantis, more Kari Lake: vapid on policy but always sure to be on-point with the base, like somebody who's, say, 100% all-in on hydroxychloroquine & Trump-like climate change-denial.

Do  you think she’d be serious about trying to nullify federal laws cause yah that’s lunacy

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Lmao Danielle Smith just said "the 30-year old living in her parents' basement, the single mom who can't afford nutritious meals for her children".

Clearly trying to ride Poilievre's coattails, although I'm not sure Poilievre will be super-enthused about being associated with Smith.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Relatively is Smith to the right of say DeSantis cause he nullify federal laws seems even to the right of the vast majority of Republican governors here

Think less DeSantis, more Kari Lake: vapid on policy but always sure to be on-point with the base, like somebody who's, say, 100% all-in on hydroxychloroquine & Trump-like climate change-denial.

Do  you think she’d be serious about trying to nullify federal laws cause yah that’s lunacy

It's impossible to say, honestly. It would be a pretty unprecedented move in Canada and I can't see the Supreme Court upholding something like that. But I also don't see how Smith could backtrack from that.

[brucejoel99]

Searched twitter for 17th & 20th Premier of Alberta, only relevant result:

https://twitter.com/robbreakenridge/status/594149795012292608
Man, those 2015 Albertans don't even know…