Israel 2022 election (November 1st)

[danny]

Smotric party is going to have primaries as well. Dov Halbertal, a anti-zionist Haredi announced he's running against Smotric for laughs.

Dov Halbertal Used to be very left wing, but last year he changed his mind and now his opinions seem to be mostly in line with the rest of the Religious Zionist party.

[Hnv1]

Smotric party is going to have primaries as well. Dov Halbertal, a anti-zionist Haredi announced he's running against Smotric for laughs.

Dov Halbertal Used to be very left wing, but last year he changed his mind and now his opinions seem to be mostly in line with the rest of the Religious Zionist party.

Yet last I checked he was still a Haredi though. But I suppose the differences are beginning to blur at the edges.

His brother is such a nice man

[Coldstream]

This article seems to suggest that Ben-Gvir has gained popularity in the last year and could lead the far right instead of Smotrich:

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-711073

[Mike88]

Unsurprising, but I see Lapid's campaign strategy is definitely going to be 'I am the Prime Minister '.

Lapid isn't going to campaign much himself. He's going to be antithetic to Bibi and act like he's PM and too busy for elections.
The main aim is to get YA to 20-25 seats area whilst keeping Meretz and Labour on 4 seats at most, or best still merge, and more importantly, keep B&W under 10 seats.
A big merger in the centre-right that will put Gantz with 15 seats would be his nightmare.

Incumbency, nowadays, is quite important. Who knows, maybe Lapid makes a good impression in the next few months and voters may want to want to have a go with him.

[NewYorkExpress]

I think it's rather clear looking at it from an outsider's perspective that Netanyahu will have the seats to become Prime Minister if he doesn't do anything stupid between now and November.

[jaichind]

I think it's rather clear looking at it from an outsider's perspective that Netanyahu will have the seats to become Prime Minister if he doesn't do anything stupid between now and November.

That is my very outsider amateurish view as well.  The old opposition narrative was "Netanyahu is the source of instability and if Netanyahu is out of power then Israel politics and stabilize".  Well, an anti-Netanyahu was installed and there was no stability. The only way to a stable government now is to vote Likud.

[Hnv1]

I think it's rather clear looking at it from an outsider's perspective that Netanyahu will have the seats to become Prime Minister if he doesn't do anything stupid between now and November.

That is my very outsider amateurish view as well.  The old opposition narrative was "Netanyahu is the source of instability and if Netanyahu is out of power then Israel politics and stabilize".  Well, an anti-Netanyahu was installed and there was no stability. The only way to a stable government now is to vote Likud.

How is a massive constitutional crisis and a direct confrontation with the judiciary a "stable government"? A Likud government is dead set on causing massive mayhem, if it weren't so he'd be surging in the polls instead of hitting the ceiling of 35 constantly.

[NewYorkExpress]

I think it's rather clear looking at it from an outsider's perspective that Netanyahu will have the seats to become Prime Minister if he doesn't do anything stupid between now and November.

That is my very outsider amateurish view as well.  The old opposition narrative was "Netanyahu is the source of instability and if Netanyahu is out of power then Israel politics and stabilize".  Well, an anti-Netanyahu was installed and there was no stability. The only way to a stable government now is to vote Likud.

How is a massive constitutional crisis and a direct confrontation with the judiciary a "stable government"? A Likud government is dead set on causing massive mayhem, if it weren't so he'd be surging in the polls instead of hitting the ceiling of 35 constantly.

Yeah, but that should get Likud enough seats to form a government with one or two coalition partners, and they could improve on that if they ditch Netanyahu for someone else.

[Hnv1]

I think it's rather clear looking at it from an outsider's perspective that Netanyahu will have the seats to become Prime Minister if he doesn't do anything stupid between now and November.

That is my very outsider amateurish view as well.  The old opposition narrative was "Netanyahu is the source of instability and if Netanyahu is out of power then Israel politics and stabilize".  Well, an anti-Netanyahu was installed and there was no stability. The only way to a stable government now is to vote Likud.

How is a massive constitutional crisis and a direct confrontation with the judiciary a "stable government"? A Likud government is dead set on causing massive mayhem, if it weren't so he'd be surging in the polls instead of hitting the ceiling of 35 constantly.

Yeah, but that should get Likud enough seats to form a government with one or two coalition partners, and they could improve on that if they ditch Netanyahu for someone else.

That's not going to happen. Even if the Haredi finally renounce him his position in Likud is rock solid for as long as he wants, and that length will equal the time until his trial is over at least.

In todays new: Yuval Steinitz (Likud) retires. He was one of the more experienced and I suppose moderate figures in Likud. Was definitely up for a senior ministerial role.
I speculate that the reason is that his wife is a justice on the supreme court and he wouldn't want, or couldn't, join in with the rest of Likud in the imminent clash of branches.

Labour's general secretary, Eran Hermoni, announced he will challenge Michaeli for the chairman role. Hermoni is a residue of old labour elected when Herzog was still leader, not very popular, and I'm not sure what he wants. Michaeli screwed him over by pushing him to the 11th spot on the list last time around. Not doing himself any favors here. He announced that if he wins he will seek to bring in someone else to be the party's candidate for PM, I suppose some ex-general.

[jaichind]

That's not going to happen. Even if the Haredi finally renounce him his position in Likud is rock solid for as long as he wants, and that length will equal the time until his trial is over at least.

That reminds me.  How is the Netanyahu trial going?  Is there a risk he will be forced out of politics in the coming year or two due to a guilty verdict or is the legal process going to be very long which would mean he can stay on as PM or LoP for as long as he wants?

[America Needs R'hllor]

In other esoteric news:
MK Yair Golan (former general, constant foot in his mouth, much less pro Palestinian in rhetoric than Meretz) is running for Meretz leadership against Nitzan Horovitz.
Party chairman Eran Hermoni is running for Labor leadership against Merav Michaeli. Seems to be running to absorb Labor into KL. Electing a pale party man would obviously be the death of the party (not that Michaeli's "I'm going to be PM" line isn't threatening the threshold).

[Hnv1]

That's not going to happen. Even if the Haredi finally renounce him his position in Likud is rock solid for as long as he wants, and that length will equal the time until his trial is over at least.

That reminds me.  How is the Netanyahu trial going?  Is there a risk he will be forced out of politics in the coming year or two due to a guilty verdict or is the legal process going to be very long which would mean he can stay on as PM or LoP for as long as he wants?

They began hearing testimonies on the second of his indictments. So a verdict is pretty far off, and with the inevitable appeal even further. We're talking 2-3 years I believe.

My opinion is that the bribe charges as weakened dramatically and I don't think they can prove a mens rea. But the charges of Breach of Trust are solid.

[Hnv1]

In other esoteric news:
MK Yair Golan (former general, constant foot in his mouth, much less pro Palestinian in rhetoric than Meretz) is running for Meretz leadership against Nitzan Horovitz.
Party chairman Eran Hermoni is running for Labor leadership against Merav Michaeli. Seems to be running to absorb Labor into KL. Electing a pale party man would obviously be the death of the party (not that Michaeli's "I'm going to be PM" line isn't threatening the threshold).

Hermoni has no chance.
Golan is well despised by most Meretz members, but the socialist wing (that crowned Horowitz) might crown him to allow a more moderate meretz and appeal to Labour for a merger. Judging by the results of the internal elections there last week it seems the socialists have lost some ground in the party. Unless Zandberg spoils the vote Horowitz is set to win as the lesser evil

[America Needs R'hllor]

That's not going to happen. Even if the Haredi finally renounce him his position in Likud is rock solid for as long as he wants, and that length will equal the time until his trial is over at least.

That reminds me.  How is the Netanyahu trial going?  Is there a risk he will be forced out of politics in the coming year or two due to a guilty verdict or is the legal process going to be very long which would mean he can stay on as PM or LoP for as long as he wants?

They began hearing testimonies on the second of his indictments. So a verdict is pretty far off, and with the inevitable appeal even further. We're talking 2-3 years I believe.

My opinion is that the bribe charges as weakened dramatically and I don't think they can prove a mens rea. But the charges of Breach of Trust are solid.

Are we talking a conviction with disgrace?

[America Needs R'hllor]

In other esoteric news:
MK Yair Golan (former general, constant foot in his mouth, much less pro Palestinian in rhetoric than Meretz) is running for Meretz leadership against Nitzan Horovitz.
Party chairman Eran Hermoni is running for Labor leadership against Merav Michaeli. Seems to be running to absorb Labor into KL. Electing a pale party man would obviously be the death of the party (not that Michaeli's "I'm going to be PM" line isn't threatening the threshold).

Hermoni has no chance.
Golan is well despised by most Meretz members, but the socialist wing (that crowned Horowitz) might crown him to allow a more moderate meretz and appeal to Labour for a merger. Judging by the results of the internal elections there last week it seems the socialists have lost some ground in the party. Unless Zandberg spoils the vote Horowitz is set to win as the lesser evil

Yeah, Hermoni is a lol-tier candidate. I guess his best chance is if turnout is abysmal and only hacks come out, but it's unlikely to be that bad

[Hnv1]

That's not going to happen. Even if the Haredi finally renounce him his position in Likud is rock solid for as long as he wants, and that length will equal the time until his trial is over at least.

That reminds me.  How is the Netanyahu trial going?  Is there a risk he will be forced out of politics in the coming year or two due to a guilty verdict or is the legal process going to be very long which would mean he can stay on as PM or LoP for as long as he wants?

They began hearing testimonies on the second of his indictments. So a verdict is pretty far off, and with the inevitable appeal even further. We're talking 2-3 years I believe.

My opinion is that the bribe charges as weakened dramatically and I don't think they can prove a mens rea. But the charges of Breach of Trust are solid.

Are we talking a conviction with disgrace?

Although a misdemeanor, yes according to past court decisions. But again I highly doubt we'll get there and Bibi will have a very solid public case against a conviction with disgrace when the corruption case so terribly collapsed.

[Hnv1]

In other esoteric news:
MK Yair Golan (former general, constant foot in his mouth, much less pro Palestinian in rhetoric than Meretz) is running for Meretz leadership against Nitzan Horovitz.
Party chairman Eran Hermoni is running for Labor leadership against Merav Michaeli. Seems to be running to absorb Labor into KL. Electing a pale party man would obviously be the death of the party (not that Michaeli's "I'm going to be PM" line isn't threatening the threshold).

Hermoni has no chance.
Golan is well despised by most Meretz members, but the socialist wing (that crowned Horowitz) might crown him to allow a more moderate meretz and appeal to Labour for a merger. Judging by the results of the internal elections there last week it seems the socialists have lost some ground in the party. Unless Zandberg spoils the vote Horowitz is set to win as the lesser evil

Yeah, Hermoni is a lol-tier candidate. I guess his best chance is if turnout is abysmal and only hacks come out, but it's unlikely to be that bad

tbf Michaeli isn't exactly the champion of party democracy and arranged for there to be only 4 ballot boxes across the entire country.

[America Needs R'hllor]

In other esoteric news:
MK Yair Golan (former general, constant foot in his mouth, much less pro Palestinian in rhetoric than Meretz) is running for Meretz leadership against Nitzan Horovitz.
Party chairman Eran Hermoni is running for Labor leadership against Merav Michaeli. Seems to be running to absorb Labor into KL. Electing a pale party man would obviously be the death of the party (not that Michaeli's "I'm going to be PM" line isn't threatening the threshold).

Hermoni has no chance.
Golan is well despised by most Meretz members, but the socialist wing (that crowned Horowitz) might crown him to allow a more moderate meretz and appeal to Labour for a merger. Judging by the results of the internal elections there last week it seems the socialists have lost some ground in the party. Unless Zandberg spoils the vote Horowitz is set to win as the lesser evil

Yeah, Hermoni is a lol-tier candidate. I guess his best chance is if turnout is abysmal and only hacks come out, but it's unlikely to be that bad

tbf Michaeli isn't exactly the champion of party democracy and arranged for there to be only 4 ballot boxes across the entire country.

Isn't it possible to vote online? That's what I did in last year's list primaries anyway

[Hnv1]

In other esoteric news:
MK Yair Golan (former general, constant foot in his mouth, much less pro Palestinian in rhetoric than Meretz) is running for Meretz leadership against Nitzan Horovitz.
Party chairman Eran Hermoni is running for Labor leadership against Merav Michaeli. Seems to be running to absorb Labor into KL. Electing a pale party man would obviously be the death of the party (not that Michaeli's "I'm going to be PM" line isn't threatening the threshold).

Hermoni has no chance.
Golan is well despised by most Meretz members, but the socialist wing (that crowned Horowitz) might crown him to allow a more moderate meretz and appeal to Labour for a merger. Judging by the results of the internal elections there last week it seems the socialists have lost some ground in the party. Unless Zandberg spoils the vote Horowitz is set to win as the lesser evil

Yeah, Hermoni is a lol-tier candidate. I guess his best chance is if turnout is abysmal and only hacks come out, but it's unlikely to be that bad

tbf Michaeli isn't exactly the champion of party democracy and arranged for there to be only 4 ballot boxes across the entire country.

Isn't it possible to vote online? That's what I did in last year's list primaries anyway

I think so. But we both know Hermoni is reliant on older voters. I can't see my aunt taking a taxi to get to Haifa to vote for Hermoni and I can't see her voting online

[America Needs R'hllor]

In other esoteric news:
MK Yair Golan (former general, constant foot in his mouth, much less pro Palestinian in rhetoric than Meretz) is running for Meretz leadership against Nitzan Horovitz.
Party chairman Eran Hermoni is running for Labor leadership against Merav Michaeli. Seems to be running to absorb Labor into KL. Electing a pale party man would obviously be the death of the party (not that Michaeli's "I'm going to be PM" line isn't threatening the threshold).

Hermoni has no chance.
Golan is well despised by most Meretz members, but the socialist wing (that crowned Horowitz) might crown him to allow a more moderate meretz and appeal to Labour for a merger. Judging by the results of the internal elections there last week it seems the socialists have lost some ground in the party. Unless Zandberg spoils the vote Horowitz is set to win as the lesser evil

Yeah, Hermoni is a lol-tier candidate. I guess his best chance is if turnout is abysmal and only hacks come out, but it's unlikely to be that bad

tbf Michaeli isn't exactly the champion of party democracy and arranged for there to be only 4 ballot boxes across the entire country.

Isn't it possible to vote online? That's what I did in last year's list primaries anyway

I think so. But we both know Hermoni is reliant on older voters. I can't see my aunt taking a taxi to get to Haifa to vote for Hermoni and I can't see her voting online

Might be more interesting to see how it affects the list primary (if it also has a lack of stations). I get the feeling that Lazimi, Rayten and maybe Maraana will do well with young voters. Bar Lev and Shai will be harmed by less old turnout

[Hnv1]

The Bibi bloc has 61 organic seats for the first time in a poll but that’s because both Yamina and Meretz with 2.6% and 2.1% respectively are below the threshold.

The responsible thing to do is for everyone to cannibalise Yamina and pressure Meretz not to run

[Antonio the Sixth]

The Bibi bloc has 61 organic seats for the first time in a poll but that’s because both Yamina and Meretz with 2.6% and 2.1% respectively are below the threshold.

The responsible thing to do is for everyone to cannibalise Yamina and pressure Meretz not to run

What would Yamina's electorate be this time around anyway? I mean, it's really hard to see a niche for very right-wing Israeli voters who nonetheless would support allying with the left to keep Bibi out of power.

[Hnv1]

The Bibi bloc has 61 organic seats for the first time in a poll but that’s because both Yamina and Meretz with 2.6% and 2.1% respectively are below the threshold.

The responsible thing to do is for everyone to cannibalise Yamina and pressure Meretz not to run

What would Yamina's electorate be this time around anyway? I mean, it's really hard to see a niche for very right-wing Israeli voters who nonetheless would support allying with the left to keep Bibi out of power.

1. The Givat Shmuel Man:
Mild Orthodox Jew, sends his kids to old Kookist institutions but not too big on the Nationalist Haredi stream of Smotric and Ben Gvir. As a scion of old Mafdal not too big on Likud and their populist base. He prefers a right wing government but he just doesn’t want to vote for any of the Bibi bloc parties.

2. The young libertarian orthodox man:
A small but vocal population online. They’re right wing enough to vote Smotric but they’re super libertarians and want to take down the “Histadrut”. Usually young, educated in STEM, use Mill and Locke to justify repugnant views. They voted Zehut in 2019A and have since drifted. Some voted NH to support Haskel but now Shaked and Kara are the best libertarian game in town.
I’m older than these people but I see them on Twitter and they’re a bunch of grade A morons.

No matter what pundits say there is no third subgroup of Shaked loyalists. Her stock is traded in the media substantially higher than its actual market value among voters.

Neither of these groups are big enough or loyal enough to rely on to get them over the line.
Group 1 is susceptible to move right to Smotric (especially if Ben Gvir runs solo). And some could even vote B&W which functions as a Mapai-Mafdal hybrid.
Group 2 is susceptible to move right to Smotric/Likud if they decide they value their bigotry over their economic Torah. They might also spoil the vote for whatever minor libertarian party runs this time

[Lord Halifax]

1. The Givat Shmuel Man:
Mild Orthodox Jew, sends his kids to old Kookist institutions

love the term Kookist.

I may be a bit prejudiced about a guy that was apparently the father of religious Zionism, but was Kook a kook?

[Hnv1]

1. The Givat Shmuel Man:
Mild Orthodox Jew, sends his kids to old Kookist institutions

love the term Kookist.

I may be a bit prejudiced about a guy that was apparently the father of religious Zionism, but was Kook a kook?

There were two Kooks, Kook senior and junior. I’m no expert on their theology but it’s a consensus view that the father was more moderate than the son. The son’s political theology is a stronger influence on the extremists.