Israel 2022 election (November 1st)

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

1.662M votes counted:
Likud: 23.71%
Yesh Atid: 16.25%
RZP: 11.45%
Shas: 9.21%
National unity: 8.86%
UTJ: 7.57%
Beitenu: 4.27%
Hadash: 3.70%
Labour: 3.27%
----3.25% threshold----
Balad: 3.14%
RAAM: 3.09%
Meretz: 2.67%
JH: 1.38%

Arab party vote ticked up a fair bit in this update

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Mandatory LOL Meretz

[Tekken_Guy]

Will a 61-62 seat Bibi government be stable or will it fall apart quickly like the last one?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What do Isreali Labor and a zombie have in common? They manage to remain undead.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Mandatory LOL Meretz

Labour is getting dangerously close to that 3.25% threshold, though my instinct is that their better areas might be lagging behind a bit.

[Walmart_shopper]

1.662M votes counted:
Likud: 23.71%
Yesh Atid: 16.25%
RZP: 11.45%
Shas: 9.21%
National unity: 8.86%
UTJ: 7.57%
Beitenu: 4.27%
Hadash: 3.70%
Labour: 3.27%
----3.25% threshold----
Balad: 3.14%
RAAM: 3.09%
Meretz: 2.67%
JH: 1.38%

Arab party vote ticked up a fair bit in this update

I do think Raam will be fine but Balad and Meretz, and so the whole thing, could go either way. Balad is really performing well in the Arab sector.

[Logical]

Mandatory LOL Meretz

Labour is getting dangerously close to that 3.25% threshold, though my instinct is that their better areas might be lagging behind a bit.

Less than 2k votes counted in Tel Aviv. They'll both pass when all is done.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Mandatory LOL Meretz

Labour is getting dangerously close to that 3.25% threshold, though my instinct is that their better areas might be lagging behind a bit.

Less than 2k votes counted in Tel Aviv. They'll both pass.

Yeah, that'll do it.

[GALeftist]

Not too worried about Labor or Meretz given how little of Tel Aviv is in, and the south should help out Ra’am. What about Balad? It seems pretty good but I’m not sure precisely what’s out.

[Logical]

Few observations from scanning results in Arab towns.

-Turnout increased by 10-20% from 2021
-Balad takes about a third to half of Joint List's vote. Ra'am vote stable
-Likud vote among Arabs collapsed
-Labor and Meretz do slightly worse

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

2.147M votes counted:
Likud: 23.18%
Yesh Atid: 17.56%
RZP: 11.05%
Shas: 9.11%
National unity: 8.56%
UTJ: 6.78%
Beitenu: 4.22%
Hadash: 3.90%
Labour: 3.66%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.24%
Balad: 3.11%
RAAM: 2.87%
JH: 1.33%

A bunch of Tel Aviv just came in

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well I was really hoping I'd be able to go to bed (at 5:30am!) with a sense of where things are headed, but I guess not. Have fun I guess. Here's hoping I'll wake up to more of the same shambolic status quo rather than to Bibi's Grand Comeback.

[Walmart_shopper]

2.147M votes counted:
Likud: 23.18%
Yesh Atid: 17.56%
RZP: 11.05%
Shas: 9.11%
National unity: 8.56%
UTJ: 6.78%
Beitenu: 4.22%
Hadash: 3.90%
Labour: 3.66%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.24%
Balad: 3.11%
RAAM: 2.87%
JH: 1.33%

A bunch of Tel Aviv just came in

Still Yafo, the most hipstery parts of Tel Aviv, Givatayyim, Ramat Gan, and Herzliya left for Meretz to build enough of a margin. Beersheva, Ashdod, and Bnai Brak are all out and there are a lot of right wing votes there to dilute left wing and Arab party margins. All of the south is out so Raam should be fine. Haifa is mostly done so for Balad it will come down to Jaffa and how much of the vote they can net in what's left of the Galilee.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I've gotta be heading off to bed too. Hoping against hope that Netanyahu's corrupt, extreme-right faction can be kept out of power again, even if it means the absurdity of yet another election.

[Hnv1]

As I said during the day this is heading to a very solid Bibi win. 68 seats majority.
Thanks Michaeli for not merging lists with Meretz. Great call…

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Few observations from scanning results in Arab towns.

-Turnout increased by 10-20% from 2021
-Balad takes about a third to half of Joint List's vote. Ra'am vote stable
-Likud vote among Arabs collapsed
-Labor and Meretz do slightly worse

Who were the Arabs voting for Likud anyway?

[Logical]

3M votes counted
Likud: 23.72%
Yesh Atid: 17.95%
RZP: 10.47%
Shas: 9.11%
National unity: 9.10%
UTJ: 7.23%
Beitenu: 4.46%
Labour: 3.60%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.38%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.17%
Balad: 2.75%
RAAM: 2.47%
JH: 1.16%

[Logical]

Few observations from scanning results in Arab towns.

-Turnout increased by 10-20% from 2021
-Balad takes about a third to half of Joint List's vote. Ra'am vote stable
-Likud vote among Arabs collapsed
-Labor and Meretz do slightly worse

Who were the Arabs voting for Likud anyway?

Mostly Bedouins and Druzes

[Hnv1]

I’ll go out on a limb:
Herzog will push for a wide government in exchange for pardon now

[America Needs R'hllor]

As a side note, seems that Lieberman did much better than in the exit polls again

[Logical]

3.43M votes counted
Likud: 23.77%
Yesh Atid: 17.44%
RZP: 10.78%
Shas: 8.94%
National unity: 8.88%
UTJ: 6.80%
Beitenu: 4.38%
Ra'am: 3.86%
Labour: 3.48%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.33%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.05%
Balad: 2.69%
JH: 1.17%

Bunch of Southern Arab vote came in strong, putting Ra'am above threshold. There's still some ~80k uncounted votes left in Tel Aviv that will probably save Meretz.

[Hnv1]

How my precinct voted:
YA 44.17%
Meretz 14.32% (wife)
Statist 12.62% (brother-in-law)
Likud 9.95%
Labour 9.47% (sister)
YB 4.85%
RZ-NSDAP 1.46%
Hadash-Ta'al 1.21% (me)
Shas 0.97%
Balad 0.49%
Anti-vax 0.24%
Zalicha 0.24%

[Tekken_Guy]

3.43M votes counted
Likud: 23.77%
Yesh Atid: 17.44%
RZP: 10.78%
Shas: 8.94%
National unity: 8.88%
UTJ: 6.80%
Beitenu: 4.38%
Ra'am: 3.86%
Labour: 3.48%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.33%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.05%
Balad: 2.69%
JH: 1.17%

Bunch of Southern Arab vote came in strong, putting Ra'am above threshold. There's still some ~80k uncounted votes left in Tel Aviv that will probably save Meretz.

Is Balad still in this?

[Hnv1]

3.43M votes counted
Likud: 23.77%
Yesh Atid: 17.44%
RZP: 10.78%
Shas: 8.94%
National unity: 8.88%
UTJ: 6.80%
Beitenu: 4.38%
Ra'am: 3.86%
Labour: 3.48%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.33%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.05%
Balad: 2.69%
JH: 1.17%

Bunch of Southern Arab vote came in strong, putting Ra'am above threshold. There's still some ~80k uncounted votes left in Tel Aviv that will probably save Meretz.

Is Balad still in this?

Longshot. They'll need 4% of the double envelopes by my math. Meretz would need 3.5%

[Tekken_Guy]

3.43M votes counted
Likud: 23.77%
Yesh Atid: 17.44%
RZP: 10.78%
Shas: 8.94%
National unity: 8.88%
UTJ: 6.80%
Beitenu: 4.38%
Ra'am: 3.86%
Labour: 3.48%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.33%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.05%
Balad: 2.69%
JH: 1.17%

Bunch of Southern Arab vote came in strong, putting Ra'am above threshold. There's still some ~80k uncounted votes left in Tel Aviv that will probably save Meretz.

Is Balad still in this?

Longshot. They'll need 4% of the double envelopes by my math. Meretz would need 3.5%

So does Bibi have it in the bag?