Israel 2022 election (November 1st)

[Double Carpet]

Yes it's like chalk & cheese - 1st results 10 minutes in Denmark, 2.5 hours in Israel. Although Israel is normally pretty slow and Denmark very fast, they are at opposite ends of the spectrum for small countries declaring their results.

[GALeftist]

I think this is the slowest I've ever seen them count. This is excruciating.

They need time to process all my mules

[Middle-aged Europe]

Maybe they're just being meticulous.

[danny]

258K votes counted:
Likud: 24.73%
Yesh Atid: 16.6%
RZP: 10.72%
National unity: 8.76%
Shas: 8.45%
UTJ: 6.43%
Beitenu: 4.88%
Hadash: 3.9%
Labour: 3.68%
RAAM: 3.53%
----3.25% threshold-----
Meretz: 2.98%
Balad: 2.69%
JH: 1.13%

[Oryxslayer]

12.5K votes counted:
Likud: 23.32%
RZP: 20.48%
Yesh Atid: 18.72%
National Camp: 10.47%
Labour: 6.69%
Shas: 6.09%
Meretz: 5.25%
----3.25% threshold-----
UTJ: 2.88%
JH: 1.75%
Beitenu: 1.56%
Hadash: 0.59%
Balad: 0.54%
RAAM: 0.14%

How you know things are slow: Jerusalem should be biasing the count at this point for the Haredim based on past count tends, but it's not there so the Settlements which previously came in alongside her, are instead the source of bias.

[danny]

459K votes counted:
Likud: 25%
Yesh Atid: 16.23%
RZP: 10.98%
Shas: 9.28%
National unity: 8.44%
UTJ: 7%
Beitenu: 4.63%
Hadash: 3.54%
RAAM: 3.49%
Labour: 3.39%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 2.71%
Balad: 2.64%
JH: 1.22%

[Walmart_shopper]

12.5K votes counted:
Likud: 23.32%
RZP: 20.48%
Yesh Atid: 18.72%
National Camp: 10.47%
Labour: 6.69%
Shas: 6.09%
Meretz: 5.25%
----3.25% threshold-----
UTJ: 2.88%
JH: 1.75%
Beitenu: 1.56%
Hadash: 0.59%
Balad: 0.54%
RAAM: 0.14%

How you know things are slow: Jerusalem should be biasing the count at this point for the Haredim based on past count tends, but it's not there so the Settlements which previously came in alongside her, are instead the source of bias.

A lot of Jerusalem is in. A lot of the settlements are in. A lot of Haifa is in. But there's very little from Tel Aviv and Bnai Brak, which should help Meretz get our of danger and boost Haredi margins. The question that the whole thing hinges on is what happens with Balad and I can't really tell from what's in whether they're going to make it. Certainly a lot of left wing vote still out bit I'm not sure about Arab votes.

[danny]

A lot of Jerusalem is in. A lot of the settlements are in. A lot of Haifa is in. But there's very little from Tel Aviv and Bnai Brak, which should help Meretz get our of danger and boost Haredi margins. The question that the whole thing hinges on is what happens with Balad and I can't really tell from what's in whether they're going to make it. Certainly a lot of left wing vote still out bit I'm not sure about Arab votes.

About 90% of the vote is still out, every party still has plenty left to count.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

623K votes counted:
Likud: 24.84%
Yesh Atid: 15.92%
RZP: 10.92%
Shas: 9.62%
National unity: 8.33%
UTJ: 7.01%
Beitenu: 4.65%
Hadash: 3.78%
RAAM: 3.39%
Labour: 3.31%
----3.25% threshold----
Balad: 2.85%
Meretz: 2.72%
JH: 1.21%

[Senator Incitatus]

Holy crap, ANOTHER election?

[Oryxslayer]

A lot of Jerusalem is in. A lot of the settlements are in. A lot of Haifa is in. But there's very little from Tel Aviv and Bnai Brak, which should help Meretz get our of danger and boost Haredi margins. The question that the whole thing hinges on is what happens with Balad and I can't really tell from what's in whether they're going to make it. Certainly a lot of left wing vote still out bit I'm not sure about Arab votes.

About 90% of the vote is still out, every party still has plenty left to count.

Yes, but as of his response things are starting to follow the normal trendline just much slower. I guess high turnout must be slowing everything.

Jerusalem should have 255Kish votes by the end. Currently has 65,159

Tel Aviv should have 270Kish votes by the end. Currently has 1.7K - this though is normal for this point in the count.

Hafia should have 140Kish votes by the end. Currently has 55,325

Rishon L'Tzyion should have 140Kish by the end. Currently 8K

Petah Tikvah should have 130Kish by the end. Currently 31,529

Netanya should have 107Kish but the end. Currently 28,883

Ashdod should have 110Kish buy the end. Currently his I think 0.

Those are all the places with above 100K from last time.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What about the Balad strongholds then? Are they over- or underreporting so far?

[politicallefty]

How does the current vote translate to seats? Is there a seat calculator?

[danny]

How does the current vote translate to seats? Is there a seat calculator?

https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/reporting/762d0edf-a991-4b30-bf18-65cdae97b32a/page/D1W6C?s=kTuBgTDL4xc
Likud: 33
Yesh Atid: 21
RZP:14
Shas: 13
National Unity: 11
UTJ: 9
Beitenu: 6
Hadash: 5
Labour: 4
RAAM: 4

[Oryxslayer]

What about the Balad strongholds then? Are they over- or underreporting so far?

The Arab-majority areas are mostly smaller, so such a comparison is less intuitive. Nazareth though is a bigger community, its currently at 6,719 of 25Kish if we were approximating from the last election. Though Arab turnout can spike or collapse wildly, and turnout may be high based on the hourly estimates. 

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Holy crap, ANOTHER election?

It's Israel, that's what they do.

[danny]

1.001M votes counted:
Likud: 24.28%
Yesh Atid: 16.42%
RZP: 11.07%
Shas: 9.63%
National unity: 8.56%
UTJ: 7.86%
Beitenu: 4.55%
Hadash: 3.36%
Labour: 3.29%
----3.25% threshold----
RAAM: 2.96%
Meretz: 2.7%
Balad: 2.62%
JH: 1.27%

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

1.001M votes counted:
Likud: 24.28%
Yesh Atid: 16.42%
RZP: 11.07%
Shas: 9.63%
National unity: 8.56%
UTJ: 7.86%
Beitenu: 4.55%
Hadash: 3.36%
Labour: 3.29%
----3.25% threshold----
RAAM: 2.96%
Meretz: 2.7%
Balad: 2.62%
JH: 1.27%

Counting finally picking up the pace.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

1.214M votes counted:
Likud: 23.95%
Yesh Atid: 16.07%
RZP: 11.40%
Shas: 9.68%
National unity: 8.47%
UTJ: 7.98%
Beitenu: 4.39%
Hadash: 3.46%
Labour: 3.33%
----3.25% threshold----
RAAM: 2.97%
Balad: 2.76%
Meretz: 2.76%
JH: 1.34%

[danny]

Live seat results in English: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iKBuklUpq5MkgJTJ_UzQNsEjEIEpKR9FK0oFSeXDQmg/edit#gid=835504410

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Live seat results in English: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iKBuklUpq5MkgJTJ_UzQNsEjEIEpKR9FK0oFSeXDQmg/edit#gid=835504410

By my count Yesh Atid+NU+Shas+Labor+Chadash-Tal+Yisrael Beiteinu is 61. If Netanyahu doesn't have the votes and said parties vote against ousting Lapid I think he remains in office.

[danny]

Live seat results in English: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iKBuklUpq5MkgJTJ_UzQNsEjEIEpKR9FK0oFSeXDQmg/edit#gid=835504410

By my count Yesh Atid+NU+Shas+Labor+Chadash-Tal+Yisrael Beiteinu is 61. If Netanyahu doesn't have the votes and said parties vote against ousting Lapid I think he remains in office.

Shas are a core part of the Netanyahu bloc.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Live seat results in English: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iKBuklUpq5MkgJTJ_UzQNsEjEIEpKR9FK0oFSeXDQmg/edit#gid=835504410

By my count Yesh Atid+NU+Shas+Labor+Chadash-Tal+Yisrael Beiteinu is 61. If Netanyahu doesn't have the votes and said parties vote against ousting Lapid I think he remains in office.

Shas are a core part of the Netanyahu bloc.

nvm

[Oryxslayer]

Live seat results in English: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iKBuklUpq5MkgJTJ_UzQNsEjEIEpKR9FK0oFSeXDQmg/edit#gid=835504410

By my count Yesh Atid+NU+Shas+Labor+Chadash-Tal+Yisrael Beiteinu is 61. If Netanyahu doesn't have the votes and said parties vote against ousting Lapid I think he remains in office.

Shas are a core part of the Netanyahu bloc.

This. Also, you can't really tell whats going on here seat-wise until much later cause we are at the approximate point in the count where the geographic biases (mainly in favor of the Haredi) are at their strongest. The most striking example of course being Tel Aviv essentially at 0.2% votes reporting, but thats only one example - and a normal one based on past election counts.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Live seat results in English: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iKBuklUpq5MkgJTJ_UzQNsEjEIEpKR9FK0oFSeXDQmg/edit#gid=835504410

By my count Yesh Atid+NU+Shas+Labor+Chadash-Tal+Yisrael Beiteinu is 61. If Netanyahu doesn't have the votes and said parties vote against ousting Lapid I think he remains in office.

A Haredi party like Shas will never back a staunch secularist like Lapid. They would be more likely to back a Labor-led government than one led by him.