Israel 2022 election (November 1st)

[America Needs R'hllor]

Haha. True. But I think they were talking about the Arab vote in the Negev.

6 seat Ra'am time

[America Needs R'hllor]

If all three Arab lists make threshold, would that likely be enough to prevent Bibi bloc majority?

Yes. With the added effect that Balad will have 4 seats lol

[America Needs R'hllor]

If all three Arab lists make threshold, would that likely be enough to prevent Bibi bloc majority?

Yes. With the added effect that Balad will have 4 seats lol

But in that case I thought Ra'am will then join the Likud bloc ?

Ra'am is pragmatic but I doubt there's a chance Ra'am joins Likud's bloc. RZ is strictly opposed, and I think Likud went too deep on calling Abbas a terrorist for it to work. Whether Balad passes or not has no bearing on this, anyway.

[America Needs R'hllor]

28.4% turnout as of 12:00, highest since 1999

[America Needs R'hllor]

Does the higher turnout means that anti-Bibi voters are turning out?

We live in the Bad Timeline so it means low info Likud voters are turnout out to vote

[America Needs R'hllor]

Very anecdotal, but my friend who worked for Meretz said they successfully spooked their voters and stand at 5-6 seats while Labor slept at the wheel and are in danger

[America Needs R'hllor]

Ok so Denmark has also voted today and is 40% counted after 2 hours.

I doubt we will see hardly any results from Israel within 2 hours, why does it count so slowly?

Paper ballots

[America Needs R'hllor]

I think Balad gets in. Channel 11 has them .15% away, and the prison vote alone should cover that.

Netanyahu warns of vote fraud in Arab villages, he's starting the stop the steal

[America Needs R'hllor]

As a side note, seems that Lieberman did much better than in the exit polls again

[America Needs R'hllor]

Lapid preparing to concede once the votes are counted. Outside of something really wild, it's over.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Also none of the polls showed the Bibi bloc getting near 65, most had them right at a bare majority.

The polls had Meretz passing. With such tiny differences, the polls were pretty damn accurate.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Fun fact: only 9 out of 62-65 MKs in the right wing coalition will be women

[America Needs R'hllor]

My hometown Ma'alot-Tarshiha (change from last time):
Likud 26.6% (-1.6%)
YB 12.5% (-3.6%)
RZ 11.5% (+5.5%)
Balad 10.7% (+3.6% combined with Hadash-Ta'al)
Yesh Atid 10.3% (+2.4%)
Hadash-Ta'al 8.4% (+3.6% combined with Balad)
Shas 6.5% (+0.4%)
Statist 5% (-1.8% for NH+KL)
Ra'am 2.8% (+-0)
Meretz 1.2% (-1.1%)
Labor 1% (-0.9%)
JH 0.9% (-3.4% for Yamina)
UTJ 0.8% (+0.2%)
Ometz (antivax) 0.4% (-0.3% from previous antivax party)

Notice the fall for YB- these are all Russians that I wager Ben Gvir picked up. Same for the small percent Likud lost. Really interesting to see the pattern of Arab parties in Tarshiha (the Arab village combined with my town). It's actually considered a really peaceful and "unproblematic" village and yet Balad seems to be the single strongest Arab party there. Ra'am seems to get consistent support from a tiny Bedouin population, and Hadash gets the rest.

Rishon LeZion (where I rent):
Likud 32.4% (+0.8%)
Yesh Atid 25.2% (+4.1%)
Statist 13.8% (-3% combined with NH)
RZ 9.7% (+6.9%)
YB 6.3% (-1.8%)
Shas 5% (+1.2%)
Labor 2.9% (-1.9%)
Meretz 1.6% (-0.8%)
JH 0.7% (-5.5%)
UTJ 0.7% (+0.2%)

Horrifying lurch to the right. Willing to bet these 6.9% are mostly young people.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Is it really meaningful to speak of an anti-Bibi “bloc” that includes Lieberman and Gideon Sa’ar on the one end and Hadash and Balad on the other? Sure, they’re all anti-Bibi but they don’t represent any coherent alternative government.

This is not untrue, but it is important to note that the 'Bibi bloc' is also not very logically coherent and contains a lot of elements with blatantly contradictory policy preferences and political interests. It's held together by sheer force of personality, much as the anti-Bibi bloc is also - to a weaker extent as we've seen and to its cost - by that same force of personality, but in a negative sense.

Much less so than the other bloc, though, and decreasingly less. The haredi public transformed into a much more right wing public recently. They're all very comfortable with each other by now with minimal disagreements. Likud doesn't have many liberals now, and its base are fairly conservative\don't mind some religious oppression for the pleasure of hurting Arabs. Once they don't need YB, a lot of the contradictions are off the table

[America Needs R'hllor]

Jerusalem:
UTJ 23.8% (+0.2%)
Likud 19.1% (-1.5%)
Shas 18.3% (+2.7%)
RZ 14.2% (+4.9%)
Yesh Atid 7.5% (+1.9%)
Statist 5.3% (-1.4% combined with NH)
Meretz 2.8% (-0.9%)
Labor 2.5% (-1.5%)
JH 1.9% (-4.8%)
YB 1.9% (-0.1%)
Hadash-Ta'al 1% (+0.6% combined in JL)
Balad 0.7% (+0.6% combined in JL)
Ra'am 0.3% (+0.1%)

Tel Aviv-Yafo:
Yesh Atic 32.8% (+10.7%)
Likud 17% (+0.04%)
Statist 11% (-3.9% combined with NH)
Meretz 10.9% (-3.1%)
Labor 9.3% (-5.5%)
RZ 4.5% (+2.8%
Shas 4.3% (+0.7%)
YB 3.3% (-0.4%)
Balad 1.5% (+1% combined with Hadash-Ta'al)
Hadash-Ta'al 1.5% (+1% combined with Balad)
UTJ 0.8% (+0.07%)
JH 0.7% (-2.9%)
Ra'am 0.7% (+0.2%)

[America Needs R'hllor]

In a vegan commune where some of my friends live, the antivax party grew from 4.6% (18 votes) to 7.6% (29 votes), while RZ grew from 3.9% (15 votes) to 13.7% (52 votes). Labor won there last time with 20.3% (79 votes) and now fell to 4th with 9.2% (35 votes). Meretz down from 19% (74 votes) to 13.4% (51 votes), Yesh Atid up from 18% (70 votes) to 41.8% (121 votes)

[America Needs R'hllor]

In a vegan commune where some of my friends live, the antivax party grew from 4.6% (18 votes) to 7.6% (29 votes), while RZ grew from 3.9% (15 votes) to 13.7% (52 votes). Labor won there last time with 20.3% (79 votes) and now fell to 4th with 9.2% (35 votes). Meretz down from 19% (74 votes) to 13.4% (51 votes), Yesh Atid up from 18% (70 votes) to 41.8% (121 votes)

The antivax thing unfortunately makes sense, but what's the appeal of RZ in a vegan commune?

https://twitter.com/HeTows/status/1588246765580726272
RZ has a little appeal basically everywhere.

Interesting, and depressing. Thanks.

The biggest improvement for them is probably young people, if you wanted it a bit more depressing.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Wow, Ashdod and Be'er Sheba are sh**tholes.
Also, very worrying and telling that both RZ and Balad are the biggest benefactors in mixed cities. These cities aren't going in a good direction.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Wow, Ashdod and Be'er Sheba are sh**tholes.
Also, very worrying and telling that both RZ and Balad are the biggest benefactors in mixed cities. These cities aren't going in a good direction.

I assume mixed cities are cities that have both large Jewish and Arab populations?

Yes. They've been the center of extreme violence in May 2021.