Israel 2022 election (November 1st)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 04:10:25 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  Israel 2022 election (November 1st)
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 18 19 20 21 22 [23] 24
Author Topic: Israel 2022 election (November 1st)  (Read 33695 times)
America Needs R'hllor
Parrotguy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,420
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -3.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #550 on: November 04, 2022, 04:39:29 AM »

In a vegan commune where some of my friends live, the antivax party grew from 4.6% (18 votes) to 7.6% (29 votes), while RZ grew from 3.9% (15 votes) to 13.7% (52 votes). Labor won there last time with 20.3% (79 votes) and now fell to 4th with 9.2% (35 votes). Meretz down from 19% (74 votes) to 13.4% (51 votes), Yesh Atid up from 18% (70 votes) to 41.8% (121 votes)

The antivax thing unfortunately makes sense, but what's the appeal of RZ in a vegan commune?


RZ has a little appeal basically everywhere.

Interesting, and depressing. Thanks.

The biggest improvement for them is probably young people, if you wanted it a bit more depressing.
Logged
Hnv1
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,505


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #551 on: November 04, 2022, 07:27:56 AM »
« Edited: November 04, 2022, 09:29:30 AM by Hnv1 »

In a vegan commune where some of my friends live, the antivax party grew from 4.6% (18 votes) to 7.6% (29 votes), while RZ grew from 3.9% (15 votes) to 13.7% (52 votes). Labor won there last time with 20.3% (79 votes) and now fell to 4th with 9.2% (35 votes). Meretz down from 19% (74 votes) to 13.4% (51 votes), Yesh Atid up from 18% (70 votes) to 41.8% (121 votes)

The antivax thing unfortunately makes sense, but what's the appeal of RZ in a vegan commune?


RZ has a little appeal basically everywhere.

Interesting, and depressing. Thanks.

The biggest improvement for them is probably young people if you wanted it a bit more depressing.
That's not a permanent shift to the right. When I was young, teenage boys thought the world of Kach and Gandhi (the Israeli general). In 2009 young voters flocked to the at the time johnny-big-balls Lieberman. When they grew older, they drifted back left.

Conscription does weird things to young Israelies
Logged
Tekken_Guy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,737
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #552 on: November 04, 2022, 09:03:37 AM »

What went wrong for the anti-Bibi bloc in Israel?
Logged
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 112,693
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #553 on: November 04, 2022, 09:04:53 AM »

The fact that the only thing they all had in common was "Not Bibi" is basically it.
Logged
crals
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 399


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #554 on: November 04, 2022, 09:08:03 AM »

Israel faced a simple and inescapable choice - stability and strong Government with Bibi, or chaos with Yair Lapid
Logged
Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,305
United Kingdom


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #555 on: November 04, 2022, 09:19:03 AM »

Bad economy and security concerns.
Logged
Zinneke
JosepBroz
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,069
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #556 on: November 04, 2022, 09:31:58 AM »

They are too prudish, they need to encourage their electorates to unprotected sex more often in the name of secularism
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,959
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #557 on: November 04, 2022, 09:35:08 AM »

Well, a lot of things went wrong, but it didn't help they just kinda forgot about the electoral threshold thing.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #558 on: November 04, 2022, 09:35:39 AM »

The first and most fundamental thing is that they ran too many lists. That is such a massive and basic error that it genuinely cannot be stressed enough. They also (and this is related) squabbled far too much amongst themselves and in general came across as a mass of feuding egomaniacs, which is not ideal when your opponent likes to play the 'only adult in the room' card.* And, obviously, also poor and lacklustre campaigns without much in the way of a positive vision. There are also longterm and structural issues regarding how the parties and factions on that side of the political divide are organized, present themselves, attempt to appeal to and so on, but the election was tight enough that it makes sense, at least for the moment, to look first and most at the proximate causes.

*And, yes, not a terribly natural grouping overall, but there are better ways of handling that... and things were no better amongst the parts that are more natural and obvious pairings...
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #559 on: November 04, 2022, 09:38:20 AM »

Well, a lot of things went wrong, but it didn't help they just kinda forgot about the electoral threshold thing.

It is a little bit... how shall we say... 'what went wrong with my bread? Well, firstly, I forgot to turn the oven on...' isn't it?
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,771


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #560 on: November 04, 2022, 09:40:21 AM »

What went wrong for the anti-Bibi bloc in Israel?

Many things, but I think the major non-Arab parties were victims of their own successes. Bibi’s firmest opponents remained politically disenfranchised and the Law of Return they championed (especially in its effects following the collapse of the USSR) seems to have caused demographic changes which were bad news for every party left of Likud.
Logged
CumbrianLefty
CumbrianLeftie
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,595
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #561 on: November 04, 2022, 10:52:23 AM »

I wonder if this will lead to a fall in Israel's image abroad again, it did seem to improve a bit recently.
Logged
DavidB.
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,612
Israel


Political Matrix
E: 0.58, S: 4.26


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #562 on: November 04, 2022, 04:24:23 PM »

Huge contrast although not surprising.  Seems like Jerusalem had close to 75% go for Bibi bloc and quite right wing while Tel Aviv Bibi bloc got only around 25% roughly so very much a mix of centrist and left wing.  But no surprise.  Having been to both cities, Jerusalem struck me as a very religious city while Tel Aviv quite secular.
Truly the earth-shattering insight we were all craving for.
Logged
World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 34,248


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #563 on: November 04, 2022, 10:21:41 PM »

Huge contrast although not surprising.  Seems like Jerusalem had close to 75% go for Bibi bloc and quite right wing while Tel Aviv Bibi bloc got only around 25% roughly so very much a mix of centrist and left wing.  But no surprise.  Having been to both cities, Jerusalem struck me as a very religious city while Tel Aviv quite secular.
Truly the earth-shattering insight we were all craving for.

You'd be shocked how many people don't know this, even though it's such a basic and elegant fact that you can make a successful educated guess at it based purely on generalized stereotypes without even needing to know anything about contemporary Israeli society.
Logged
All Along The Watchtower
Progressive Realist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,417
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #564 on: November 05, 2022, 12:19:07 AM »

Huge contrast although not surprising.  Seems like Jerusalem had close to 75% go for Bibi bloc and quite right wing while Tel Aviv Bibi bloc got only around 25% roughly so very much a mix of centrist and left wing.  But no surprise.  Having been to both cities, Jerusalem struck me as a very religious city while Tel Aviv quite secular.
Truly the earth-shattering insight we were all craving for.

You'd be shocked how many people don't know this, even though it's such a basic and elegant fact that you can make a successful educated guess at it based purely on generalized stereotypes without even needing to know anything about contemporary Israeli society.

Reject Modernity (Tel Aviv)
Embrace Tradition (Jerusalem)
Logged
H. Ross Peron
General Mung Beans
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,406
Korea, Republic of


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: -1.91

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #565 on: November 05, 2022, 12:39:20 AM »

Huge contrast although not surprising.  Seems like Jerusalem had close to 75% go for Bibi bloc and quite right wing while Tel Aviv Bibi bloc got only around 25% roughly so very much a mix of centrist and left wing.  But no surprise.  Having been to both cities, Jerusalem struck me as a very religious city while Tel Aviv quite secular.
Truly the earth-shattering insight we were all craving for.

You'd be shocked how many people don't know this, even though it's such a basic and elegant fact that you can make a successful educated guess at it based purely on generalized stereotypes without even needing to know anything about contemporary Israeli society.

Reject Modernity (Tel Aviv)
Embrace Tradition (Jerusalem)

Reject Modernity (Likud)
Embrace Tradition (Mapai)
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,959
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #566 on: November 05, 2022, 12:43:25 PM »

Huge contrast although not surprising.  Seems like Jerusalem had close to 75% go for Bibi bloc and quite right wing while Tel Aviv Bibi bloc got only around 25% roughly so very much a mix of centrist and left wing.  But no surprise.  Having been to both cities, Jerusalem struck me as a very religious city while Tel Aviv quite secular.
Truly the earth-shattering insight we were all craving for.

You'd be shocked how many people don't know this, even though it's such a basic and elegant fact that you can make a successful educated guess at it based purely on generalized stereotypes without even needing to know anything about contemporary Israeli society.

Reject Modernity (Tel Aviv)
Embrace Tradition (Jerusalem)

Reject Modernity (Likud)
Embrace Tradition (Mapai)

Yeah, Israel's actual roots are secular and socialist, no matter how inconvenient this fact might be to the people who run things now.
Logged
All Along The Watchtower
Progressive Realist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,417
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #567 on: November 05, 2022, 02:21:05 PM »

Huge contrast although not surprising.  Seems like Jerusalem had close to 75% go for Bibi bloc and quite right wing while Tel Aviv Bibi bloc got only around 25% roughly so very much a mix of centrist and left wing.  But no surprise.  Having been to both cities, Jerusalem struck me as a very religious city while Tel Aviv quite secular.
Truly the earth-shattering insight we were all craving for.

You'd be shocked how many people don't know this, even though it's such a basic and elegant fact that you can make a successful educated guess at it based purely on generalized stereotypes without even needing to know anything about contemporary Israeli society.

Reject Modernity (Tel Aviv)
Embrace Tradition (Jerusalem)

Reject Modernity (Likud)
Embrace Tradition (Mapai)

Yeah, Israel's actual roots are secular and socialist, no matter how inconvenient this fact might be to the people who run things now.

Or indeed, how inconvenient it is to certain narratives that are fashionable among an altogether politically different crowd outside of (and opposed to) Israel.
Logged
Logical
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,696


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #568 on: November 06, 2022, 10:47:12 AM »

Since I had nothing better to do here are the results of the 10 largest localities in Israel. Major parties under 0.1% of the vote are not included

Jerusalem - 264k votes
UTJ - 23.8%
Likud - 19.11%
Shas - 18.31%
RZP - 14.22%
YA - 7.47%
Statist - 5.25%
Meretz - 2.76%
Labor - 2.48%
JH - 1.9%
YB - 1.87%
Hadash - 0.96%
Balad - 0.65%
Ra'am - 0.28%

Tel Aviv - 265k votes
YA - 32.82%
Likud - 17.01%
Statist - 11.02%
Meretz - 10.93%
Labor - 9.26%
RZP - 4.5%
Shas - 4.3%
YB -3.31%
Balad - 1.54%
Hadash - 1.53%
UTJ - 0.83%
JH - 0.75%
Ra'am - 0.69%

Haifa - 139k votes
YA - 26.31%
Likud - 20.94%
Statist - 10.14%
YB - 8.13%
RZP - 6.29%
Hadash - 5.71%
Labor - 4.76%
Meretz - 4.59%
UTJ - 3.76%
Shas - 3.16%
Balad - 2.8%
JH - 0.89%
Ra'am - 0.82%

Rishon LeZion - 139k votes
Likud - 32.35%
YA - 25.2%
Statist 13.8%
RZP - 9.72%
YB - 6.29%
Shas - 4.97%
Labor - 2.86%
Meretz - 1.58%
JH - 0.74%
UTJ - 0.66%

Petah Tikva - 133k votes
Likud - 28.43%
YA - 19.78%
RZP - 13.77%
Statist - 10.62%
Shas - 8.92%
YB - 6.02%
UTJ - 4.42%
Labor - 2.51%
JH - 2.15%
Meretz - 1.56%

Netanya - 113k votes
Likud - 35.51%
YA - 17.47%
Shas - 12.18%
RZP - 11.39%
Statist - 8.45%
YB - 6.64%
UTJ - 2.8%
Labor - 1.79%
Meretz - 1.06%
JH - 1.04%

Ashdod - 116k votes
Likud - 28.92%
Shas - 15.7%
UTJ - 13.45%
YA - 12.78%
YB - 10.4%
RZP - 8.99%
Statist - 6.6%
Labor - 0.9%
Meretz - 0.47%
JH - 0.44%

Bnei Brak - 87k votes
UTJ - 59.79%
Shas - 30.18%
RZP - 4.43%
Likud - 3.39%
YA - 0.71%
Statist - 0.47%
YB - 0.35%
JH - 0.18%
Labor - 0.16%
Meretz - 0.11%

Beersheba - 100k votes
Likud - 40.3%
RZP - 15.67%
YA - 12.05%
Shas - 8.97%
YB - 7.96%
Statist 7.49%
Labor - 1.88%
UTJ - 1.45%
Meretz - 0.96%
JH - 0.74%
Hadash - 0.33%
Ra'am - 0.32%
Balad - 0.18%

Holon - 100k votes
Likud - 34.67%
YA - 20.57%
Statist - 11.63%
Shas - 10.53%
RZP - 10.2%
YB - 4.65%
Labor - 2.84%
Meretz - 1.55%
UTJ - 0.83%
JH - 0.68%
Logged
jaymichaud
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,356
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: 3.10, S: -7.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #569 on: November 06, 2022, 11:46:22 AM »
« Edited: November 06, 2022, 01:51:20 PM by jaymichaud »

In a vegan commune where some of my friends live, the antivax party grew from 4.6% (18 votes) to 7.6% (29 votes), while RZ grew from 3.9% (15 votes) to 13.7% (52 votes). Labor won there last time with 20.3% (79 votes) and now fell to 4th with 9.2% (35 votes). Meretz down from 19% (74 votes) to 13.4% (51 votes), Yesh Atid up from 18% (70 votes) to 41.8% (121 votes)

The antivax thing unfortunately makes sense, but what's the appeal of RZ in a vegan commune?

A lot of rural religious moshavs have a strong hippie minority, who are often datiim themselves.

People like this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oSFJCcDTnCM&ab_channel=yonisharon
Logged
Logical
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,696


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #570 on: November 06, 2022, 12:20:54 PM »

Now to the mixed cities, where RZP had some of their biggest gains and Arab turnout markedly increased.

Ramla - 36k votes
Likud - 39.43% (-5.5)
Shas - 13.52% (+1.5)
RZP - 12.68% (+9)
YA - 6.14% (+0.1)
Balad - 5.98% (+3.8 combined with Hadash)
Ra'am - 5.88% (+0.3)
Statist - 4.95% (-2.4 from BW+NH)
Hadash - 4.11% (+3.8 combined with Balad)
YB - 3.05% (-1.3)
Labor - 1.37% (-0.6)
Meretz - 0.93% (-0.8 )
UTJ - 0.4% (-)
JH - 0.34% (-3.9 from Yamina)

Lod - 35k votes
Likud - 28.53% (-5.8 )
Balad - 15.73% (+8.5 with Hadash)
RZP - 15.5% (+8 )
Shas - 9.27% (+0.9)
YA - 6.6% (-)
UTJ - 6.02% (+2.1)
YB - 5.79% (-2.7)
Statist - 3.69% (-3 from BW&NH)
Ra'am - 2.8% (-1.8 )
Hadash - 1.86% (+8.5 with Balad)
JH - 1.15% (-5 from Yamina)
Labor - 0.95% (-0.8 )
Meretz - 0,65% (-0.4)

Acre - 25k votes
Likud - 32.84% (-5.4)
Hadash - 10.99% (+4.1 with Balad)
RZP - 10.09% (+6.2)
Shas - 8.97% (+1)
Ra'am - 8.05% (+1.3)
YB - 7.91% (-1.4)
Balad - 7.36% (+4.1 with Hadash)
YA - 6.82% (+1.5)
Statist - 3.97% (-2.6 from BW&NH)
Labor - 0,92% (-0.5)
Meretz - 0.73% (-0.5)
JH - 0.46% (-3.2 from Yamina)
UTJ - 0.27% (-)

Nof HaGalil - 21k votes
Likud - 27.88% (-1.8 )
Hadash -16.87% (+3.4 with Balad)
YB - 15.09% (-3)
YA - 9.93% (+1.9)
RZP - 7.6% (+4.6)
Balad - 6.68% (+3.4 with Hadash)
Statist - 4.07% (-2.9 from BW&NH)
Shas - 2.64% (+0.4)
UTJ - 2.45% (+0.4)
Ra'am - 2.01% (+0.6)
Labor - 1.59% (-0.4)
Meretz - 1.31% (-1)
JH - 0.27% (-2.2 from Yamina)
Logged
Philly D.
Rookie
**
Posts: 62
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #571 on: November 06, 2022, 01:31:01 PM »

Netanya - 113k votes

Bnei Brak - 87k votes
UTJ - 59.79%
Shas - 30.18%
RZP - 4.43%
Likud - 3.39%
YA - 0.71%
Statist - 0.47%
YB - 0.35%
JH - 0.18%
Labor - 0.16%
Meretz - 0.11%

97.79% for the Likud bloc... it makes Washington DC feel positively competitive! I know it's a Haredi centre, but these types of results are normally reserved for religious communities in small towns, not an 181k one!
Logged
America Needs R'hllor
Parrotguy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,420
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -3.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #572 on: November 06, 2022, 03:04:18 PM »

Wow, Ashdod and Be'er Sheba are sh**tholes.
Also, very worrying and telling that both RZ and Balad are the biggest benefactors in mixed cities. These cities aren't going in a good direction.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #573 on: November 06, 2022, 03:05:38 PM »

Yeah, Israel's actual roots are secular and socialist, no matter how inconvenient this fact might be to the people who run things now.

Likud remains notable for a major party of the political right anywhere in that it has never been formally antisocialist: that Netanyahu is a recognizable type of right-wing politician of the sort that can be found in most Western (and highly developed non-Western for that matter) societies can easily obscure the fact that the party he leads is rather stranger and less typical.* Though perhaps not so rare in Eastern Europe: the 'Israel is best understood as a postcommunist society' thesis again.

*Of course as time goes by and as Netanyahu's personality continues to constantly warp the political system, this is more and more a piece of trivia as political parties become brands attached to and an extension of whoever currently leads them more than organizations.
Logged
America Needs R'hllor
Parrotguy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,420
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -3.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #574 on: November 06, 2022, 03:19:16 PM »

Wow, Ashdod and Be'er Sheba are sh**tholes.
Also, very worrying and telling that both RZ and Balad are the biggest benefactors in mixed cities. These cities aren't going in a good direction.
I assume mixed cities are cities that have both large Jewish and Arab populations?

Yes. They've been the center of extreme violence in May 2021.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 18 19 20 21 22 [23] 24  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.072 seconds with 12 queries.