Israel 2022 election (November 1st)

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Maariv Friday poll (usually decent):
Likud 32
YA 25
Statist Party 12
Shas 8
Jewish Power 7
UTJ 7
JL 6
RZ 5
Labour 5
YB 5
Meretz 4
Ra’am 4
Zionist Spirit 2.6%

Any prediction for the Meretz list primary tomorrow?

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Religious Zionism primary results:
1. Smotrich (leader)
2. MK Ofir Sofer (former party chairman, basically the party man)
3. MK Orit Strook (longtime religious zionist activist, far-right activist whose son tortured a Palestinian)
4. MK Simcha Rotman (twitter activist, right wing of course)
5. MK Michal Waldinger (the most sympathetic MK on the list, doesn't make much noise and works for mental healthcare issues)
6. Tzvi Sukot (extreme right activist, former Otzma chairman, history of taking things in his own hands)
7. Moshe Solomon (Ethiopian religious zionist rabbie)
8. Yitzhak Zaga (another rabbie, rabid homophobe, previously challenged Bennet for Jewish Home leadership)
9. Arnon Segal (journalist, brother of Israel's leading political journalist\right wing propagandanist Amit Segal)
10. Naama Zarbiv ("I'm a woman and I hate feminists!!" person)

Smotrich apparently wanted a more "moderate" and diverse list, not sure he got it. Waldinger is on the far edge of realistic seats, one token Ethiopian really doesn't erase the extremism of the rest of the list.

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Meretz primary- Galon beats Golan, no surprise there.
For the list:
1. Galon (leader)
2. MK Mosi Raz (very left-wing, would make a union with Labor hard)
3. MK Michal Rozin (unsurprising, strong MK)
4. MK Ali Salalha (Meretz secures minority representation, druze school director)
5. MK Yair Golan (lost the leadership, but strong chance to get in anyway)
6. MK Gaby Leski (another far left activist)
7. Minister Nitzan Horovitz (not great but not as terrible as I thought he might get with all the rumours of weakness- he could get in with a Norwegian law)- Horovitz actually came 5th in the vote but Lasky passes him because of woman reserved spot
8. Mazen Abu Siam (Bedouin activist and city councillor)
9. Umemaya Hamed (an Arab attorney and Meretz member, Meretz gets an Arab woman in their top 10)
10. Adir Badir (Isawi Farij confidant from Kfar Kassem, him coming this low seems like a blow for Farij)
11. Katie Piasetzky (Meretz city councilor in Bat Yam, pretty strong voice there, nearly got into the Knesset this time)

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Basically I think it finalizes a trend we saw in the primaries this year- very activist candidates were chosen over party veterans, who were mostly pushed back. In Likud and RZ it resulted in louder more extreme voices winning, while in Labor and Meretz it also resulted in more left wing voices but there was a more distinct trend of rewarding hardworking parliamentarians- Lazimi (Labor 1st place) and Raz (Meretz 1st place) all got a lot of buzz for their parliamentary work (and had a lot of online support which this time wasn't just a bubble)

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Apparently RZ and Otzma are running together after all - Ben Gvir published a statement with this message.

Likely list:
1. Smotrich
2. Ben Gvir
3. Ofir Sofer (RZ)
4. Orit Strook (RZ)
5. Yitzhak Weisserlof (Kahanist)
6. Simcha Rotman (RZ)
7. Kahanist
8. Michal Waldinger (RZ)
9. Kahanist
10. Kahanist
11. Offered to Noam (single issue homophobes)

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Apparently RZ and Otzma are running together after all - Ben Gvir published a statement with this message.

Likely list:
1. Smotrich
2. Ben Gvir
3. Ofir Sofer (RZ)
4. Orit Strook (RZ)
5. Yitzhak Weisserlof (Kahanist)
6. Simcha Rotman (RZ)
7. Kahanist
8. Michal Waldinger (RZ)
9. Kahanist
10. Kahanist
11. Offered to Noam (single issue homophobes)

If anything, this looks like a raw deal, considering that Otzma Yehudit has actually been doing better than the Religious Zionists in all recent polls where they've been polled separately, with the latter actually not even making it in in one poll.

More traditional parties and leaders are often given leeway in deals with insurgents - ie Rafi Peretz and Jewish Home being given the leadership of the United Right Wing Parties in 2019 despite having tiny electoral power compared to Smotrich, Bennet and Shaked being given leadership of Yamina when it included Jewish Home and National Union despite not passing the threshold. The reasons are either that they're assumed to have a more solid base, or would generate less hostility, or have huge ego and won't agree to anything else.

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At least the right-wing won't feel uncomfortable taking off the mask when it comes to racism and apartheid.

Extremely blackpilling.

I wonder if the incessant terrorist attacks and total failure of the left's economic policies could have anything to do with this.

There is no total failure of the left's economic policies to speak of, and most Israelis support most of these policies.

Of course, the terrorist attacks are a big reason for this. Arafat could've chosen partnership, but he chose terror and now his people (and mine, ultimately) are paying. But it's still true that this is an extremely toxic and unhealthy political environment.

Where does this poll indicate support of apartheid? All I see is people defining as right wing.

While polling is unclear about support for the two state solution, safe to say the majority of these 60% oppose it. Since I assume they don't support a binational state, support for apartheid is the logical conclusion. Israelis are very good at keeping their eyes shut, but this is the truth.

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It would have not nothing as neither side chose partnership. Palestine chose terror, Israel chose military domination.

Right now, for sure. There were historical instances when Israel presented a hand and there was a possibility of an agreement with it.

Anyway, there's reportedtrouble within Otzma as Gopstein and Marzel claim Ben Gvir moderated. Personally, this sounds like an obvious strategy by Ben Gvir to me. Get your buddies who are deeply unpopular to say this, and broaden your appeal a few days after calling for deportations of leftists.

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I saw a new party on the wiki polling page today--does anyone have an explainer on what "Youth on Fire" stands for and whoch bloc they'd be aligned with? They actually polled surprisingly wrll kn the one poll that included them.

It's... a party that should be ignored, but the media is dumb. Basically, some 20 years old named Hadar Muchtar started a tiktok\social media movement by making shocked faces in selfies and saying mostly stupid populist things about economics and the cost of living. The thing is, because of her age she can't even run to the Knesset. When confronted about this, she just says she wants to be a Minister and doesn't name her actual Knesset candidates. Funnily, she's also part of the same military service route I am- finishing your degree first and then serving in the army. She finished her degree and is supposed to be conscripted, but is probably trying to use this to skip the conscription. So basically she's an embarrassment.

Outside of vague populism about economics, she's a religious settler, so you can imagine her opinions on Palestinians, LGBT people etc.

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In other news Lapid offered Michaeli a pretty generous offer, including Ministries as if she has 10 MKs if he forms the government (unlikely) and reserved spots on his list, but she refused.

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Yesh Atid list:
1. Lapid
2. Orna Barbivai
3. Meir Cohen
4. Karin Elharar
5. Merav Cohen
6. Yoel Razvozov
7. Elazar Stern
8. (Knesset Speaker) Mickey Levy
9. Merav Ben Ari
10. Ram Ben Barak
11. Yoav Segalovich
12. Boaz Toporovsky
13. Michal Shir
14. Idan Roll
15. Yorai Lahav Hartzeno
16. Vladimir Beliak
17. Ron Katz
18. Mati Harkevy
19. Tatiana Mazersky
20. Yasmin Sax Friedman

A few points:
- very very similar to the last list.
- all until place 18 are incumbent MKs. Michal Shir in place 13 is a former Sa'ar MK.
- Lapid is trying to emphasize women MKs and get some feminist support. But the result- #3 accused of sexual assault, #7 accused oh physically destroying sexual harassment complaints in the army, 4 women in top 10 but 8 in the top 20 (3 of whom are bundled up in places 18-20).
- MKs who had controversies or failures not punished - including Idan Roll who broke covid rules, Ram Ben Barak who had a controversial statement, and (especially) Elazar Stern who dropped out of the Jewish Agency leader race because of personal failures.
- first new person is a regional council leader in #18, unlikely to add much.

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Lists being submitted today and tomorrow for Israeli election: Statist Camp submitted, MK Eli Avidar submitted his "Free Israel" list polling squarely at 0.0%, his list is just a bunch of anonymous protesters. Labor refusing a last minute union with Meretz

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Can someone explain why some parties have longer lists than others? Is there a reason for every party not to just have full 70 candidate lists?

The full list would be 120. Some parties such as Likud, Labor and Meretz are traditional parties who usually submit full lists, usually beyond the candidates elected in the primary they put various party figure and in the last spots respected party elders (as a sign of respect). Others just don't see the need to submit full lists - not enough people who agree to run, or no need to bother with finding names.

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Netanyahu met with the spiritual leader of Noam, the single- issue homophobia and sexism party. He convinced Noam to run with RZ-Otzma, MK Avi Maoz will get the 11th spot on the list

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Joint List is OVER: Hadash-Ta'al signed up separately from Balad, who announced they're running alone. This makes Hadash-Ta'al potential partners for Lapid, but does mean the Arab vote will be even weaker and thus Netanyahu has better chances to reach a majority.

It was quite a political rollecoaster with the Joint List- Balad reached an agreement with Hadash and Ta'al this afternoon, and then a few hours ago demanded to open the agreement and renegotiate, and then relented and reached a final agreement, and a few minutes ago broke it again and announced that it's running alone.

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Balad is as relevant to 2022 politics as Herzel. They won’t get more than 25K votes.

My main fear is that this further dampens Arab enthusiasm. If their turnout slips below 2021 levels the center-left probably loses.

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Michaeli in a government meeting about the Abraham Accords: "we should promote an agreement with the Palestinians"
Shaked: "the Palestinians don't interest the Emirates"
Hendel: "no one cares about the Palestinians"
Our politicians are driving our bus with a blindfold, ignoring the biggest problem and refusing to admit that they're going to crash us into the abyss

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Israel can yall please not do whatever the f*** it looks like yall are currently on pace to do? My sanity would appreciate it.

As we say, you count the money in the bank. I don’t think Bibi’s heading for a majority and if he does Herzog would make Lapid and Gantz join a grand coalition

Ironically, this is probably labor's only road back to prominence. Who would even be opposition leader if the government is Likud-Yesh Atid-Statist-Haredim? Smotrich? Lieberman? Michaeli (if she can form a bloc with Meretz)?

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Shaked is giving a statement this evening. I think she's going to drop out.

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Shaked is giving a statement this evening. I think she's going to drop out.

Shaked NOT dropping out

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"interesting" factoid- in the secular center of Israel, Smotrich has practically no campaign. All religious zionism ads and signs are Ben Gvir Ben Gvir Ben Gvir- as if he leads the party and is its only face.

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All three final polls for Israel have the Netanyahu bloc at 60 seats, Labor at 5-6, Meretz at 4-5, and Hadash-Ta'al and Ra'am at 4 in all 3. Balad getting support amounting to 2-3 seats in the polls, while Jewish Home gets 1-2 (and unclear if their voters would go for Likud-RZ or for Gantz), so if Bibi wins next week, it might just be thanks to Balad

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I guess I'll give my prediction, as worthless as it is:

Likud 35
YA 24
RZ-NSDAP 13
Statist Party - 9
Shas -8
UTJ - 7
YB - 6
Labour - 5
Meretz - 5
Ra'am - 4
Hadash-Ta'al - 4
Balad - 0
JH - 0

Bibi Bloc - 63

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As of 10am 15.9% have already voted, the largest 10am turnout since 1981

I'd say high turnout generally benefits the right. But, we can't know if morning turnout will have a bearing on overall turnout

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As of 10am 15.9% have already voted, the largest 10am turnout since 1981

I'd say high turnout generally benefits the right. But, we can't know if morning turnout will have a bearing on overall turnout

Maybe, although I think it's probably safer to assume that a higher turnout is due to a high vote percentage in the Arab sector. While Jewish turnout has varied a little bit over the last several elections Arab turnout has been the primary driver in whether overall turnout is over or under 70%.

I've seen scattered reports that turnout is slightly higher in the Arab sector and much higher in the Negev. But we'll just have to see over the day whst happens.

By Negev do you mean Bedouin villages or Beer Sheba?

Also, for all Hebrew readers, election day bingo I made for my friends: