Has GOP recruitment given Dems a shot at holding the Senate?

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Oz, Walker, Laxalt, potentially Masters? Sununu declining to run in NH. The Republican Party isn't sending their best this cycle.

Let's say Oz faceplants in PA: the GOP then needs two flips. Could weak R candidates and strong D incumbency keep those losses limited enough for Democrats to retain the Senate?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Laxalt is a good candidate, and I'd say Oz and Masters are neutral.
NH has a good shot at flipping even without Sununu

[Sir Mohamed]

It looks this is the case, but ask me again November 9.

[Blair]

Well it hasn't exactly helped the GOP.

The tried and tested way of winning senate races in difficult years is to run officials who've won state-wide previously (CCM, Hassan, Scott) and in easier years just run people who aren't going to detonate upon seeing a microphone.

[Xing]

It’s not going to matter enough to make the difference in a year like this.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[wesmoorenerd]

It's certainly possible, and anyone who thinks otherwise is overconfident. The GOP's core problem is that their worst recruits are coming in the states that they can least afford it: Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona. Laxalt and whoever they put up in NH are better, but those states are a bit of a tougher lift just based on the fundamentals. Ultimately, I think we're going to have a lot of battleground states sitting at around the same margin on EDay, whether they be narrowly D or narrowly R.

[sg0508]

Been saying this for two months now. The GOP has utterly failed in their Senate and Governorship recruiting. Democrats are on track to gain seats in both cases. 

[mtvoter]

Oz and Masters are neutral.

There's no way Oz is a 'neutral' (generic) candidate given all his baggage and background. His approvals speak for themselves.

[MT Treasurer]

The biggest flops were Oz, Sununu not running (although it would still have been winnable for Hassan even with him running), and (so far, at least) Walker, who was always going to be hit or miss. Laxalt is not a "bad candidate" no matter how much people want him to be one (again, NV is a textbook example of generic R vs. generic D), and Masters is still a wild card who is not guaranteed to be the nominee.

Recruitment has been rather awful for the GOP this year - there’s no denying that - but it’s not going to give Democrats a "great" shot at holding the Senate on a night when they’re losing 25 House seats.

[Skill and Chance]

The biggest flops were Oz, Sununu not running (although it would still have been winnable for Hassan even with him running), and (so far, at least) Walker, who was always going to be hit or miss. Laxalt is not a "bad candidate" no matter how much people want him to be one (again, NV is a textbook example of generic R vs. generic D), and Masters is still a wild card who is not guaranteed to be the nominee.

Recruitment has been rather awful for the GOP this year - there’s no denying that - but it’s not going to give Democrats a "great" shot at holding the Senate on a night when they’re losing 25 House seats.

The environment would have to improve meaningfully for Dems.  As of today, R's are still on track to take the senate even if Walker and Oz both flop.  They only need 2 of AZ/NV/NH, all of which are looking pretty good for them. 

[MT Treasurer]

The biggest flops were Oz, Sununu not running (although it would still have been winnable for Hassan even with him running), and (so far, at least) Walker, who was always going to be hit or miss. Laxalt is not a "bad candidate" no matter how much people want him to be one (again, NV is a textbook example of generic R vs. generic D), and Masters is still a wild card who is not guaranteed to be the nominee.

Recruitment has been rather awful for the GOP this year - there’s no denying that - but it’s not going to give Democrats a "great" shot at holding the Senate on a night when they’re losing 25 House seats.

The environment would have to improve meaningfully for Dems.  As of today, R's are still on track to take the senate even if Walker and Oz both flop.  They only need 2 of AZ/NV/NH, all of which are looking pretty good for them.  

I don’t think Republicans should count on NH even with a "strong" campaigner (the state is blue enough at the federal level to carry even an unpopular Democratic Senator short of a truly massive wave), but if they can’t win AZ/NV (especially NV) in this environment, it’ll be less about "GOP candidates underperforming" and more about 2022 being a historic midterm election across the board for the party holding the White House.

NV's PVI is closer to the nation than that of any other state, it’s one of the most nationalized states (in part due to the large transient population), the House Popular Vote in NV mirrored the presidential vote in 2016/2020 (with the HPV in 2018 mirroring the Senate race that year), both candidates are very generic, and there have been no signs of a leftward shift in NV. While you could debate PA/GA and even AZ, there’s no reason to believe the NV Senate race will defy the overall environment or end up notably left of the national HPV.

I’m of course not saying that Democrats can’t win NV, just that Republicans will be lucky to even win the House if they lose NV-SEN or NV-GOV. I’m honestly surprised that people can’t agree on that?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes we are ahead in OH, NC and PA and no poll in WI and tied in NC, NH, AZ and GA, Rs aren't winning 54 seats forget it

[xavier110]

Potentially. Walker and Oz are terrible, terrible candidates. Winning PA and holding GA/NH would be an excellent outcome given the state of the world today, even if it means Ds lose control of the Senate by one.

[Politician]

Republicans said the same thing in 2018, that Democrats nominating "extreme" candidates would somehow save them...which didn't happen.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs think NC and OH aren't competetive are blinded because they just sent me emails about GA,AZ, NV, NH, PA, OH and NC Partisan trends don't matter in Midterms we won OH, WVS SEN IN 2018 and we didn't win 80M votes

FL Crist is tied with DeSantis and Beto is 5 pts behind Abbott and OH 13 is competetive

We don't know about DEMINGS, Franken or Greitans in MO or AK or UT 3 way split in AK S and H

[Pollster]

The Republicans have certainly done a bad job recruiting - especially in the Senate - and are doing a generally poor job taking advantage of the political climate to maximize their potential gains. Doesn't mean they won't win, though.

And do remember that Democrats are doing a lot of the work here - there is more meddling in primaries up and down the ballot this cycle than I can recall in recent memory.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Republicans said the same thing in 2018, that Democrats nominating "extreme" candidates would somehow save them...which didn't happen.

In some cases it did. Kara Eastman blew a perfectly winnable race for example by being a poor fit for her district.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Republicans said the same thing in 2018, that Democrats nominating "extreme" candidates would somehow save them...which didn't happen.

In some cases it did. Kara Eastman blew a perfectly winnable race for example by being a poor fit for her district.

Could be argued that Beto would have knocked off Cruz if he had ran a little more moderate.

[Schiff for Senate]

It's certainly possible, and anyone who thinks otherwise is overconfident. The GOP's core problem is that their worst recruits are coming in the states that they can least afford it: Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona. Laxalt and whoever they put up in NH are better, but those states are a bit of a tougher lift just based on the fundamentals. Ultimately, I think we're going to have a lot of battleground states sitting at around the same margin on EDay, whether they be narrowly D or narrowly R.

Perfect response and I agree.

[Schiff for Senate]

Republicans said the same thing in 2018, that Democrats nominating "extreme" candidates would somehow save them...which didn't happen.

In some cases it did. Kara Eastman blew a perfectly winnable race for example by being a poor fit for her district.

Could be argued that Beto would have knocked off Cruz if he had ran a little more moderate.

Beto ran a great campaign, which is exactly why it was so close. It’s impressive he came that close. Had he actually run a poor campaign then Trump’s 2020 margin would’ve been smaller than Cruz’s 2018 margin.

[MargieCat]

GOP recruitment has been a disaster and there is a chance it helps the democrats.

Sununu, Ayotte, or even Scott Brown would have a chance against Maggie Hassan.

The best candidate for Arizona would have been Doug Ducey, followed by Brnovich or Yee. Masters is a disaster and Kelly is a strong candidate.

Herschel Walker is very unstable and could end up fumbling the race and giving Warnock a full term. David Perdue really should have ran in this race or even Doug Collins. They are more like generic Georgia republicans.

Laxalt is not the strongest candidate. He's also pro-life, in a pro-choice state. He's not the worst recruit and could be considered a generic-R. The election conspiracy theories are not a great look.

Oz is not a great candidate, and the base seems to not like him. Fetterman is an outstanding candidate. I still think Oz could defeat Fetterman. But McCormick would have been a more difficult opponent.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Republicans said the same thing in 2018, that Democrats nominating "extreme" candidates would somehow save them...which didn't happen.

In some cases it did. Kara Eastman blew a perfectly winnable race for example by being a poor fit for her district.

Could be argued that Beto would have knocked off Cruz if he had ran a little more moderate.

Beto ran a great campaign, which is exactly why it was so close. It’s impressive he came that close. Had he actually run a poor campaign then Trump’s 2020 margin would’ve been smaller than Cruz’s 2018 margin.

Sure, both can be true.

[Coldstream]

A chance yes. But it’s very up in the air, I could see the Democrats holding all seats & Fetterman flipping PA by 7-10 pts, I could also the Dems going -3/4 - and really anywhere in between. I do think that Oz, Walker, Vance & Masters are uniquely awful candidates that could easily mess up - which is a strong contrast to the House primaries where they seem to be getting more normal people.

[Senator Incitatus]

Republican recruitment has been below par, probably because everyone hates the NRSC, McConnell, and/or Rick Scott, but no, Democrats do not have a realistic chance at holding the Senate unless something else changes.

And on the flip side, if things continue on a Republican trajectory the battleground may shift to NH/CT/WA. We could just as easily be talking about how lucky the Republicans are to have solid candidates in those races. (They blew Oregon and potentially Colorado, though.)