Conservative Dems in the Senate

[© tweed]

I couldn't think of many more.

[MarkDel]

Zell Miller is the pick here. He has already announced his intention to vote for George W in the fall.

[© tweed]

I voted for ol' Joe.

You're wrong, but you are entitled to your opinion.

[zorkpolitics]

Zell is the one:
A mathematician did a correlation analysis of voting records over 498 roll call votes from 1998 to 2000.  This ranked the 100 Senators.  On his scale the most liberal Democrat has the lowest score, Feingold  WI (1), and the most conservative Senator Kyl AZ (102).  Zell Miller was the least liberal Democrat, interestingly only one Repubican was more liberal then him (Chafee of RI). I don't have a web link but here is the journal reference:
"Non-Parametric Unfolding of Binary Choice Data." Political Analysis, 8:211-237, 2000.

[© tweed]

Zell is the one:
A mathematician did a correlation analysis of voting records over 498 roll call votes from 1998 to 2000.  This ranked the 100 Senators.  On his scale the most liberal Democrat has the lowest score, Feingold  WI (1), and the most conservative Senator Kyl AZ (102).  Zell Miller was the least liberal Democrat, interestingly only one Repubican was more liberal then him (Chafee of RI). I don't have a web link but here is the journal reference:
"Non-Parametric Unfolding of Binary Choice Data." Political Analysis, 8:211-237, 2000.

WE KNOW.

[minionofmidas]

Zell is the one:
A mathematician did a correlation analysis of voting records over 498 roll call votes from 1998 to 2000.  This ranked the 100 Senators.  On his scale the most liberal Democrat has the lowest score, Feingold  WI (1), and the most conservative Senator Kyl AZ (102).  Zell Miller was the least liberal Democrat, interestingly only one Repubican was more liberal then him (Chafee of RI). I don't have a web link but here is the journal reference:
"Non-Parametric Unfolding of Binary Choice Data." Political Analysis, 8:211-237, 2000.

I tried the same once, for the 2000-2 period. I lost interest somewhere in the middle, but up to the point I did that, there were quite a number of Republicans more Democratic (not the same as more liberal, I know) than Miller.
Specter, McCain, Susan Collins, at least two or three more. (I remember being surprised at how unconservative Thad Cochran of MS was. I don't think he was much more Rep. than Miller, may have been less)
Effectively, Miller
is a Republican and Chafee is a Democrat. They both vote with the other party more than 50% of the time. I think they are alone in this regard though.

[jravnsbo]

voted Zell, but Senator Ben nelson of Nebraska would be another one.

[Dave from Michigan]

Miller is conservative he should be a republican have you read his book.

[jravnsbo]

Yes I have, got it for Christmas.  He has not changed thought he Democrat party has gotten more Liberal.

He was always for tax cuts as he outlined in his book, giving 3 in GA as Governor.  He has always been strong on national defense.  he established a pre- Kindergartern program for GA and proposed the HOPE scholarships for GA students to geta  free college education no matter their color , creed or whatever as long azs they got a B average.

National Democrat Party is no longer strong on defense and none of them are for tax cuts, instead they all discuss tax increases.

The radical lefties are the ones mad at Miller, but he has stayed the same.

Miller is conservative he should be a republican have you read his book.

[Dave from Michigan]

Miller's a good guy I could actually vote for him.

[Nation]

Most Republicans could vote for Miller, just as most Democrats could probably vote for Chafee, and to a lesser extent, McCain, even though he supports Bush.

[© tweed]

Most Republicans could vote for Miller, just as most Democrats could probably vote for Chafee, and to a lesser extent, McCain, even though he supports Bush.

Does Chaffee vote Dem in elections?  I don' think so, they all support Bush, no matter how moderate.

[© tweed]

We'll never know. There's a secret ballot in America. Frankly, should the senate split fifty-fifty again, Chafee is quite likely to follow Jeffords' example.

That's unlikely, the Republicans are likely to gain seats in 2004.

[MarkDel]

Miami,

I give you credit for conceding that Republicans are likely to gain Senate seats in 2004. That could not have come easy for you!!!

Objectively, I think the Republicans will gain at least two seats and could win as many as six...do you agree?

I'm very confident that Republican pickups will include Georgia, South Carolina, Florida and North Carolina, with potential gains in Louisiana and South Dakota. Also, the Republicans have longshot pickup chances in North Dakota, Nevada, Washington and perhaps even California.

The Democrats have a likely pickup in Illinois and a good chance to pickup Alaska. They also have longshot pickup chances in Oklahoma and Pennsylvania.

What are your thoughts on my analysis?

[opebo]

Miami,

I give you credit for conceding that Republicans are likely to gain Senate seats in 2004. That could not have come easy for you!!!

Objectively, I think the Republicans will gain at least two seats and could win as many as six...do you agree?

I'm very confident that Republican pickups will include Georgia, South Carolina, Florida and North Carolina, with potential gains in Louisiana and South Dakota. Also, the Republicans have longshot pickup chances in North Dakota, Nevada, Washington and perhaps even California.

The Democrats have a likely pickup in Illinois and a good chance to pickup Alaska. They also have longshot pickup chances in Oklahoma and Pennsylvania.

What are your thoughts on my analysis?

I think you're right about GA, SC, and NC.  LA and FL are tossups - we'll probably win one.  Places like SD, ND, NV, WA, CA on the Dem side and Alaska, OK, and PA on the Repub side are likely to stay status quo.  And yes we have no chance in IL.  So worst case scenario +2.   I'd say +3 is most likely, but anything beyond that is just wishful thinking.

[minionofmidas]

Crystal Ball says 0 to 4: Highly likely gains in North and South Carolina and Georgia, a highly likely loss in Illinois, toss up possible gains in Louisiana and Florida, tossup possible losses in Alaska and Oklahoma.
I totally agree that another split senate is not likely (not impossible either though). When I wrote "should this happen...", I was not trying to claim it was probable.

[© tweed]

Miami,

I give you credit for conceding that Republicans are likely to gain Senate seats in 2004. That could not have come easy for you!!!

Objectively, I think the Republicans will gain at least two seats and could win as many as six...do you agree?

I'm very confident that Republican pickups will include Georgia, South Carolina, Florida and North Carolina, with potential gains in Louisiana and South Dakota. Also, the Republicans have longshot pickup chances in North Dakota, Nevada, Washington and perhaps even California.

The Democrats have a likely pickup in Illinois and a good chance to pickup Alaska. They also have longshot pickup chances in Oklahoma and Pennsylvania.

What are your thoughts on my analysis?

Well, your analysis is pretty good.  The south is revolutionizing, if you will.  Georgia in 2002 elected their first Republican governor since reconstruction!  The GOP almsot definitely will win SC, NC, and Georgia.  The Dems will win the Illinois seat almost for sure.  

In Alaska, is Tony Knowles running?  that's holding me up a little here.

Daschle and Boxer won't lose (major career mistake for John Thune).  Louisiana and Florida are tossups, but It hink the LA seat goes to the GOP and the Dems hold Florida.  Specter would win in Penn, but toomey wouldn't, and Oklahoma is a GOP seat.

So that ends up to be: Republicans +2 or 3, depending on Alaska.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

GA, NC, SC, FL and LA could all go either way... I would say that the GOP will pick up at least 1 and probably more, but I'm not sure which ones.

[NHPolitico]

Well, which one is voting for George W. Bush this November? Wait, which one has announced that Bush will get that senator's vote? I think it possible all of them will vote Bush in the secrecy of the booth.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Er... are I was talking about the Senate elections...

[MarkDel]

Miami,

Yes, Tony Knowles is running against Lisa Murkowski in Alaska. I think he has about a 50% chance of winning that seat, which would be the first Democratic Senator elected in Alaksa in quite some time.

You say that you believe Louisiana will go Republican and Florida stay Democratic...I think you may have those two reversed. Recent events in Louisiana like the close re-election of Senator Mary Landrieu, and the 2003 Republican defeat of Bobby Jindal for Governor, suggest to me that the Democratic Party is hanging on better in Louisiana that in any other state in the South. And the reason should be obvious....they have far more rural white poor in Louisiana than a state like Georgia for example, and those rural white poor are far more vulnerable to a populist, anti-rich people message. The Georgia Democrats are actually paying the price for the economic boom of the 1990's, but that boom did not impact Louisiana nearly as much.

The dynamics in Florida are far different than the rest of the South due to the influx of Hispanic voters and influx of new residents from the Northeast and Midwest. The main reason why I believe Florida will go Republican (I'm a transplanted New Yorker but I live down here now) is that the 2000 Presidential Election controversy had a major impact on the electorate, an impact which has gone TOTALLY unreported in the media.

Native Floridians, or at least those folks that have been here for the past decade or longer, were hideously embarrassed by the events of 2000, and with the exception of the hardcore Democrats, the average citizen here is far more likely to blame the Democratic Party than the Republican Party. The whole "hanging chad" mess was the kind of "lawyer like" technicality that offends the hell out of moderate to conservative voters, and when the Democrats tried to exclude those absentee votes from members of the military on technical grounds...WOW does that not sit well with the average folks down here.

The fallout from the 2000 Palm Beach County Hanging Chad Power Play was well evidenced in the 2002 Election for Governor when Jeb Bush won by a larger margin than ANYONE would have predicted. And the news since then has done nothing to get the Democrats back on good ground with independent and moderate voters. For example, popular Senator Bob Graham was well liked for decades because he was seen as middle of the road and above the partisan fray, but in the last two years, he has issued some of the most hateful, left wing rhetoric of anyone in the nation, and has otherwise behaved as what Washington insiders have always known him to be...a borderline mental patient. Graham's lurch to the left played VERY poorly in Florida and it hurt the Dems chances in 2004. And the field of candidates they have put together for the Senate race is a prescription for disaster. You have ALL of the minority/special interest groups represented and the race to the nomination could be very ugly and leave the eventual candidate bruised, damaged goods for the general election.

At the risk of sounding like James Watt (remember that moron? the Democratic field for the Senate nomination pits a moderate Cuban (Penelas) against a liberal white academician female (Castor) against a transplanted Jewish New Yorker (Deutsch) against an angry black man (Hastings) who was once impeached as a federal judge!!! They should beat the HELL out of each other in the primary. The only reason the Democrats still have a shot here is because the Republicans have some primary issues of their own with the strong candidate (Martinez) taking heat from extremists like Byrd and McCollum.

[opebo]

MarkDel,

Thanks for the informative analysis of Florida politics.  A lot of people on here have said that FL is trending back Republican, but I hadn't seen much detail on why.  I think you're right that between Louisana and Florida we're more likely to pick up the seat in FL.

[MarkDel]

Opebo,

Thanks for the comments. Another reason Florida is trending back to the Republicans is that the younger generation of Cubans, the ones who were born in the US as opposed to their parents who fled Cuba in the 1960's, have stopped their slide to the Democratic Party in recent years. These second generation Cubans were not as reflexively Republican as their parents, probably because during the course of their colege educations they were encouraged by left leaning professors to think of themselves as part of an overall Hispanic Minority rather than Cuban expats. As a result, the Republican Party was losing some support among educated young Cubans, who are a HUGE part of the South Florida electorate. But then Bill Clinton and Janet Reno were kind enough to reverse this trend during the whole Elian Gonzalez mess. The image of Reno's crew storming that little house with automatic weapons pointed at unarmed people reminded too many Cubans of the way Castro does business and this event caused many to return to the Republican Party.

Another factor in trending Republican is the fact that much of the new population influx here is from the Midwest and Upper South as opposed to the usual Northeast transplants. The East Coast of Florida has become so overdeveloped, that most of the new inhabitants settle in the West or Central part of the state. Being less urban and culturally diverse than places like Miami and Fort Lauderdale, the West Coast attracts fewer Northeast liberals and much of the resettlement where I am comes from states like Indiana, Illinois, Tennessee, Kentucky, etc....

[© tweed]

Knowles probably will win narrowly in Alaska.  I went there this summer and the people were mad at Gov. Murkowski for appointing her unqualified daughter to the senate.

[MarkDel]

Miami,

Actually, Frank Murkowski is a "he" not a "she"

But you're right on target...the average person was not pleased with this display of nepotism. I think Alaska is 50/50 at this point, but only because the Republicans have a huge advantage in terms of overall voter registration in that state. Also, being a Presidential election, Bush may have some "coat tails" that carry Little Lisa to victory.