Conservative Dems in the Senate

[opebo]

Knowles probably will win narrowly in Alaska.  I went there this summer and the people were mad at Gov. Murkowski for appointing her unqualified daughter to the senate.

Sheesh, so they're mad enough to shoot themselves in the foot?  If there was ever a state electorate who's interests were served by just one party it is Alaska.  Heck the national Dems want to turn to the whole place in to some sort of bear and reindeer preserve.

[nclib]

You say that you believe Louisiana will go Republican and Florida stay Democratic...I think you may have those two reversed. Recent events in Louisiana like the close re-election of Senator Mary Landrieu, and the 2003 Republican defeat of Bobby Jindal for Governor, suggest to me that the Democratic Party is hanging on better in Louisiana that in any other state in the South. And the reason should be obvious....they have far more rural white poor in Louisiana than a state like Georgia for example, and those rural white poor are far more vulnerable to a populist, anti-rich people message. The Georgia Democrats are actually paying the price for the economic boom of the 1990's, but that boom did not impact Louisiana nearly as much.

This analysis is interesting. I would have thought that since the rural white poor in Louisiana tend to be very socially conservative, they would be more GOP since politics has become more closely identified with social issues.

[jravnsbo]

LA I think is misleading and will go for BUSh.  See Gov Blanco ran substantially to the right of the national dem party, she is pro life , against gun control, etc etc.  Sen Landrieu also ran touting how close her voting record was to President Bush, not against him.

Kerry gets the nomination, safe GOP in LA.

You say that you believe Louisiana will go Republican and Florida stay Democratic...I think you may have those two reversed. Recent events in Louisiana like the close re-election of Senator Mary Landrieu, and the 2003 Republican defeat of Bobby Jindal for Governor, suggest to me that the Democratic Party is hanging on better in Louisiana that in any other state in the South. And the reason should be obvious....they have far more rural white poor in Louisiana than a state like Georgia for example, and those rural white poor are far more vulnerable to a populist, anti-rich people message. The Georgia Democrats are actually paying the price for the economic boom of the 1990's, but that boom did not impact Louisiana nearly as much.

This analysis is interesting. I would have thought that since the rural white poor in Louisiana tend to be very socially conservative, they would be more GOP since politics has become more closely identified with social issues.

[MarkDel]

NCLib,

Under strong or even modest economic times I would agree with your analysis because so many of the rural white poor in Louisiana tend to be Pro-Life, but the 2004 Election is a bit unique. Even though the economiy is picking up, JOBS are the number one issue and in a state like Louisiana, it's going to be pretty hard to convince the rural white poor that Free Trade and Nafta and the Global Economy are a good thing for them as their manufacturing jobs continue to disappear. Louisiana is still a bit less sophisticated than a Southern state like North Carolina where you are from. In North Carolina, the theoretical nature of concepts like Free Trade are a difficult sell to the working class, but not an impossible sell...in Louisiana, a weaker education system makes for less informed electorates, hence the complexities of things like Nafta don't resonate as well.

This does NOT mean that John Kerry has even the slightest chance of winning Louisiana...but it does mean the Democrats could hold the Senate seat in Vitter/John contest.

[© tweed]

Sheesh, so they're mad enough to shoot themselves in the foot?  If there was ever a state electorate who's interests were served by just one party it is Alaska.  Heck the national Dems want to turn to the whole place in to some sort of bear and reindeer preserve.

They already elected Tony Knowles governor, and he was very popular.

MarkDel-I know Frank is a man, I was thinking of his daughter, Lisa.

[© tweed]

You wrote "Frank Murkowski appointed her daughter Lisa", though. Are you sure you know this?

Yes....
I saw Gov Murkowski's mansion in Juneau.

[jravnsbo]

gov knowles always ran in off year election and one year the gOP candidate lost the backing of his partya nd I believe the other year a 3rd party took from GOP.  Knowles successor Ulmer was trounced by Murkowski the father.

It will be a good race but why elect a governor that can not help with drilling inthe artic as the people of alaska want it.  His party is against it nationally.

You wrote "Frank Murkowski appointed her daughter Lisa", though. Are you sure you know this?

Yes....
I saw Gov Murkowski's mansion in Juneau.

[© tweed]

Knowles is the best candidate that AK Dems can round up, I don't think there is any dispute about that.

[opebo]

Sheesh, so they're mad enough to shoot themselves in the foot?  If there was ever a state electorate who's interests were served by just one party it is Alaska.  Heck the national Dems want to turn to the whole place in to some sort of bear and reindeer preserve.

They already elected Tony Knowles governor, and he was very popular.

I know but its a big difference between electing a governor and electing a Democrat to the Senate - which is the very body that the national Democrats are using to hold back the development of the state.

[© tweed]

I know but its a big difference between electing a governor and electing a Democrat to the Senate - which is the very body that the national Democrats are using to hold back the development of the state.

The fact remains, Gov Knowles was elected by the Alaskan people.  Lisa "thank you daddy for this senate seat" Murkowski was not.

[opebo]

I know but its a big difference between electing a governor and electing a Democrat to the Senate - which is the very body that the national Democrats are using to hold back the development of the state.

The fact remains, Gov Knowles was elected by the Alaskan people.  Lisa "thank you daddy for this senate seat" Murkowski was not.

Well if they elect Knowles Alaskans will have no one but themselves to blame if the Senate Dems continue to thwart the economic development of the state.

[© tweed]

Well, here we sit on February 7th, 2004.  I will make a bold prediction that will most likely come back to bite me.

GOV. KNOWLES WILL DEFEAT "SEN." MURKOWSKI IN ALASKA.

[Ben.]

Well, here we sit on February 7th, 2004.  I will make a bold prediction that will most likely come back to bite me.

GOV. KNOWLES WILL DEFEAT "SEN." MURKOWSKI IN ALASKA.

Sorry, saw it, felt sad, bumped it up in the process... my bad...

[True Democrat]

Zell Miller is the pick here. He has already announced his intention to vote for George W in the fall.

Wow, somebody was right!

[ATFFL]

Well, here we sit on February 7th, 2004.  I will make a bold prediction that will most likely come back to bite me.

GOV. KNOWLES WILL DEFEAT "SEN." MURKOWSKI IN ALASKA.

Sorry, saw it, felt sad, bumped it up in the process... my bad...

He was right that it came back to bite him.

[© tweed]

Hell, it was one of two senate races I got wrong.  The other was North Carolina I think.  Not bad at all.  (And I got every state right in the presidential race)