… Am I missing something? …
Refer to my topic thread from last year:
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=441838.msg8079566#msg8079566 The best bellwether states nowadays are—in order of their population ranks—Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Next: North Carolina.
Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are the only states carried in each of the last four presidential-election cycles—2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020—and they are 95-plus-percent likely to once back the winner in 2024. That would become five in a row.
In 2012 and 2020, Barack Obama and Joe Biden won the U.S. Popular Vote by (whole-number estimate) +4 percentage points. While Obama carried 26 states, his No. 27 best was North Carolina. While Biden carried 25 states, North Carolina was his No. 26. Both needed to win the U.S. Popular Vote by +5 percentage points to carry North Carolina and, in such case, it would have joined those three Rust Belt states with having carried in each of the last four presidential-election cycles.
Ohio—and with it is Florida (the two vote alike)—is a bellwether no more.
