Ohio and Pennsylvania to vote Democratic again?
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  Ohio and Pennsylvania to vote Democratic again?
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Author Topic: Ohio and Pennsylvania to vote Democratic again?  (Read 991 times)
BushKerry04
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« on: June 04, 2022, 12:09:22 AM »

There are two slightly different arguments to be made that Ohio and Pennsylvania could become more reliably Democratic states in the future. Do you agree with my arguments? Disagree? Am I missing something? I'd love to hear some feedback, here goes:

According to an article I read, over 55% of Ohio's residents live outside the three metropolitan counties where Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati are located. We know that in recent years, rural America has moved further into the GOP column while Democrats have seen even greater strengthening in urban America and modest gains in suburban areas. So it makes sense that Ohio has trended more Republican. HOWEVER, the trend has been that more and more people, particularly young people, have been moving out of rural America into cities and suburban communities. Assuming this trend continues, it would seem to me Ohio's metro areas like Columbus and Cleveland would matter more in future elections statewide, thus helping Democrats.

Pennsylvania is still what I'd consider a purple state, though it has shifted right in recent years. Unlike Ohio, 57% of the population resides in the Philadelphia or Pittsburgh areas. There are Democratic strongholds like Harrisburg and State College to be clear, but the most rural parts of the state have become increasingly Republican. In addition to what I mentioned before about younger voters fleeing to metro areas, Pennsylvania also attracts people from New Jersey and New York since the taxes are lower and you get more value for your money in terms of real estate. While some of these migrants are Republicans, some aren't. The Lehigh Valley seems to be a popular destination for relocating New Yorkers and New Jerseyians. Already, Northhampton County flipped from Trump to Biden. Given all of these factors, I would argue Pennsylvania will trend Democratic.
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Unelectable Bystander
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« Reply #1 on: June 04, 2022, 09:16:19 AM »

There’s no chance this stops what’s happening in Ohio. The places where the bottom has fallen out for Dems, like southeastern Ohio and the Mahoning valley, have been bleeding population for years. The only growing parts of the state are Columbus metro, Cleveland suburbs, and Cincy suburbs. None of that matters. At the end of the day, democrats are moving to states like Georgia at faster rates than republicans.

Pennsylvania I suspect will continue to trend R but I can see the case for it being neutral. It will most likely not trend D for the same reasons
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BushKerry04
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« Reply #2 on: June 04, 2022, 09:37:28 PM »

There’s no chance this stops what’s happening in Ohio. The places where the bottom has fallen out for Dems, like southeastern Ohio and the Mahoning valley, have been bleeding population for years. The only growing parts of the state are Columbus metro, Cleveland suburbs, and Cincy suburbs. None of that matters. At the end of the day, democrats are moving to states like Georgia at faster rates than republicans.

Pennsylvania I suspect will continue to trend R but I can see the case for it being neutral. It will most likely not trend D for the same reasons

Interesting, thank you!
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seskoog
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« Reply #3 on: June 09, 2022, 01:19:01 PM »

I think Ohio will continue trending R for the next decade or two, simply because Ds have more room to fall everywhere else in the state than Rs have to fall in Columbus. Pennsylvania will probably remain a swing state and not trend much in either direction, as it is becoming increasingly suburban (I think Kerry 04 will be the last losing candidate of either party to carry PA for quite some time).
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DS0816
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« Reply #4 on: June 13, 2022, 07:39:35 PM »


Refer to my topic thread from last year:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=441838.msg8079566#msg8079566



The best bellwether states nowadays are—in order of their population ranks—Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Next: North Carolina.

Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are the only states carried in each of the last four presidential-election cycles—2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020—and they are 95-plus-percent likely to once back the winner in 2024. That would become five in a row.

In 2012 and 2020, Barack Obama and Joe Biden won the U.S. Popular Vote by (whole-number estimate) +4 percentage points. While Obama carried 26 states, his No. 27 best was North Carolina. While Biden carried 25 states, North Carolina was his No. 26. Both needed to win the U.S. Popular Vote by +5 percentage points to carry North Carolina and, in such case, it would have joined those three Rust Belt states with having carried in each of the last four presidential-election cycles.

Ohio—and with it is Florida (the two vote alike)—is a bellwether no more.

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BushKerry04
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« Reply #5 on: June 14, 2022, 08:31:29 PM »
« Edited: June 17, 2022, 10:13:40 AM by America Needs Jesus Christ »

I think Ohio will continue trending R for the next decade or two, simply because Ds have more room to fall everywhere else in the state than Rs have to fall in Columbus. Pennsylvania will probably remain a swing state and not trend much in either direction, as it is becoming increasingly suburban (I think Kerry 04 will be the last losing candidate of either party to carry PA for quite some time).

I understand your point about Ohio.

So you don't believe the suburbs will continue to be good territory for Democrats?


Refer to my topic thread from last year:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=441838.msg8079566#msg8079566



The best bellwether states nowadays are—in order of their population ranks—Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Next: North Carolina.

Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are the only states carried in each of the last four presidential-election cycles—2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020—and they are 95-plus-percent likely to once back the winner in 2024. That would become five in a row.

In 2012 and 2020, Barack Obama and Joe Biden won the U.S. Popular Vote by (whole-number estimate) +4 percentage points. While Obama carried 26 states, his No. 27 best was North Carolina. While Biden carried 25 states, North Carolina was his No. 26. Both needed to win the U.S. Popular Vote by +5 percentage points to carry North Carolina and, in such case, it would have joined those three Rust Belt states with having carried in each of the last four presidential-election cycles.

Ohio—and with it is Florida (the two vote alike)—is a bellwether no more.



Certainly a compelling argument. Wisconsin turned out to be the critical state in 2020, per 538.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #6 on: June 14, 2022, 09:36:37 PM »
« Edited: June 20, 2022, 09:07:15 PM by TDAS04 »

Ohio is not going Democratic next time.  Pennsylvania probably will, if 2024 is all right for Democrats.
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