WV-SEN 2024: Manchin out, Justice for All

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Imagine if WV Rs fail to defeat Manchin...again

He has a 60% Approval like Laura Kelly and Sherrod Brown and Andy Beshear and Jon Tester Rs don't have a Monopoly on red states, they can take blue states but we can't take red states we have won Red states LA, NC, OH, AZ, KY WV,, ND, IN and KS outside of FL and TX

There is a Border Wall in TX and a Cuban Embargo in FL that's why Rs win in TX and FLORIDA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In 2018 Manchin voted for Kavanaugh, was in a huge blue wave and was in an era of less polarization and yet he still won by 3%. He won't win in 2024.

Lol did you know we didn't win 80 M votes in 2018 that's why even in this Environment we can still replicate the blue wall despite the R advantage voter registration went up from 90 M to 125/150 M the myth is we won just as many votes as we did 2018/2020

Anyways he's running in a Prez yr it's 80 percent TURNOUT

Also it's important to note WV and MT split their votes for Prez and Sen in 2o12 and OH with Obama and Biden and Turnout was 65)60 M 125 M votes

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He still loses.

No he won't Rs don't have a monopoly on Red states just like Rs think we don't have a monopoly on blue states they feel that in an R wave they can take blue states but we can't take red states hypocrisy

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I previously said Rs don't have a monopoly on Red states

That's why I make the Predictive map that I do we don't know whom is gonna win the scarse state by state polls

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I still think what he wants in 2024 is WV-Gov.

I’m sure what you mean is he’s will settle for that.

That’s a race he can win. Senate will be an uphill battle unless by some miracle it was a Dem landslide nationally (which would bring GOP POTUS numbers from 70 down to around 60-65% which gives Manchin an outside shot. But even that is a LONGGGGG shot.

.

Not. MT and WVA in 2012 split their votes for Prez and S with Biden and Obama Romney easily win MT and WV and Tester, Brown and Manchin all won

I have statistics two

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Manchin was overestimated in quite a few 2018 pre-election polls. And even if he does still have some crossover appeal among West Virginia Republicans, that hardly translates into real votes.

Honestly, it's hard for me to see how anyone can justify him being favored in this race when even slight changes in the fundamentals (not a D+9 election year, having higher turnout due to the presidential race) will doom him.

Lol let the voters speak he is not Doomed and no are we in. 22 until the votes are casted users want to always Preempt a VBM election when the close contests we are gonna find out days later like we did in 20

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There are many people hurting in this Environment and Rs aren't gonna do nothing but cut they're not gonna give out stimulus checks like during Trump

I'd we narrowly lose the H but 8/10 seats we will get it back in 24

The Hilarious when Ds quote R talking pts Manchin is gonna lose and it's two yrs out

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Manchin was gonna sign onto Voting Rights it was only Sinema who went to AZ with Cornyn and said she was set against removing the Filibuster that means if we won ME, whom Collins won because of Tara Reade scandal broke before the Election we would have Voting Rights, White women particular in ME was offended by Reade,, when Collins upset Gideon I knew it was Bidens Fault that's why I supported Booker, Harris or Bernie

Reverend Barber went to AZ many times to stage protest against Sinema and she still was against Voting Rights

That's why Sinema not Manchin is being primaries Gallego

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Turnout is always higher in Prez elections and WVA MT and OH solit their votes for Prez and S in 2012 and Manchin won in 2012 and Tester with Obama and Biden in the Ballot when Romney easily win WVA and MT

We have to see how we do in red states in 22 we have won red states like KY and KS outside of FL, TX

Ryan and Franken and whomever is nominated in MO aren't gonna go down easy especially Vance who is unknown and never ran for office

That's why I have OH as number 2 pickup after PA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Manchin isn't DOA, the WVA pipeline is gonna determine his fate the Ds should of passed it before Eday Trump and Vance and Don Jr pounced on WVA pipeline before Eday and Biden anti Coal remarks that's why before Sept 30 Ryan was leading and after Sept 30th Ryan was LOSING

Mary Landrieu and Braley lost Cassidy and Ernst in 2014 ran on Keystone and Obama vetoed it

Biden is gonna sign the Mountain Valley pipeline, but no Questions asked it hurt Ryan Ohio is a coal state

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah Mountain Valleys is gonna determine Manchin fate whatever happens to it, Bernie Filibuster it

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There aren't any polls we need to wait for POLLING

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don’t get the people rooting against him. He’s still better than a Republican. He still voted for a decent amount for Biden. I thought the IRA focused on the wrong things but it still was a help for Dems

He’s going to lose. But had he blocked the IRA… I think he would’ve won

He's gonna to lose and he is rallying around a WVA pipeline do you know why Landrieu lost 2014 OBAMA vetoed Keystone, Bernie and Progressives blocked Keystone Biden already said he's gonna sign it and it's gonna be in the Debt Ceiling Speaker McCarthy supports it

Also, there hasn't been any polls since Eday where are the GA, KY and WVA poll
Alot these Doomers that I haven't read like Centrist Republican and you said with Biden Low Wpprovals Ds are gonna have only 200 votes v Rs 240 well the Doomers we're wrong including yourself


I said a 52/47/1 S and 225/210 H as the D Floor and a 218/217 DH and 52 plus seats as the Ceiling I never Doom, along with Wbrooks he never Dooms either

So we never listen to the Doomers

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am not saying we are gonna win WVA, MT and OH, we lost the PVI in 22 and still kept the S, and won KS GOV and 3 Biden is likely to win the PVI in 2024 and OH, MT and WVA can split it's votes just like KS GOV did

It depends on what we end up with,  and TX Senate is more in play than FL unless DEMINGS or Graham runs, if John Loves is completetive we may not win TX but it can split it's votes with Sen and Prez

Users forgot Kemp Warnock, Ryan DeWine, Johnson and Evers and how did Tester and Manchin win 2012 and Obama won the PVI 51/47 Romney won MT and WVA and Tester and Manchin both won, it all depends on Border wall, WVA pipeline and extended tax cuts until 2025 in the Debt Ceiling

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well guess what Andy Beshear won in 2019 and he has a 60% approvals in the same state Trump won by 20, it's early, there are zero polls but in 2012 guess what Manchin and Tester won and the PVI was Obama plus 4 51/49 and Romney easily won MT and WV but Obama won OH there is evidence of ticket splitting on Prez yrs 2012

I believe in blue waves you know I do John Love is gonna beat Ted Cruz and give us a 52/48 Senate as well as the H based on NY, but it's early it's nothing but fundraiser except for KY Gov and Rs are gonna win LA GOV but we are gonna win KY

Don't forget NC Cooper won and Biden and Cunningham lost in 2020 that's split voting too

John Love III IS THE SECOND COMING OF COLIN ALRED HE PROMISES TO GIVE CRUZ A FIGHT ITS ON HIS CAMPAIGN WEBSITE

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We need polls and we don't have any just remember there is ticket splitting plenty of it and Romney easily carried WVA and MT 2012 and Tester and Manchin both won, and Rosedale and Rehnberg already lost to Tester and Rosendale whom is thinking about running whom is a los


Johnson won in a blue state and buck party trends, Barnes was the Fav 2016 forgot that Tester and Manchin already did it in 2012

And Brown and John Love can win as I said I rather have Colin Aldred

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely R.

Should Democrats even help Manchin after all the crap he let them go through the past few years?

I hate to say it, but cut him loose. Not because he's betrayed us so many times, but because he has no chance and would only take money away from more winnable races.

I want him to run simply to divert GOP resources from other competitive senate races.

I won't be crying when he loses.

^^^^

Manchin could serve the role Tim Ryan did in Ohio this year.  It would be his last -and greatest- service he could render to the Democratic Party in 2024, and could be instrumental in enabling us to perhaps even keep the Senate that year.  By all means, we should help him, if for no other reason than to keep the National Republican Senatorial Committee spending valuable resources on a Senate race in a safe Republican state in Appalachia of all places.

T Ryan wasn't a Pragmatic he is just as liberal as Brown and OH isn't PA where it's gonna vote for 2 liberal Dems

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm just gonna say it: I think he can win again.

I think the Rs have completely and totally maxed out WV, and already had by 2016 for that matter. All the evidence points to this; there has just been a mild D trend there ever since. Manchin won in 2018 anyway. Does this mean he is definitely going to win again? No. But he is by no means out, and I'd actually give him better odds than I would have Tim Ryan earlier this year. People who think otherwise underestimate just how strong a brand Manchin is unto himself in West Virginia, and how strongly his popularity defies the odds (as it does for Beshear in KY; believe it or not such things actually still matter in this region). I actually think it might largely come down to the national environment: If it's a good year for Dems, he could win again. If a bad year, he probably goes down. But thinking of this race as Likely to Safe R is folly IMO.

Beshear is competitive in KY and it's an R plus 20 state like WV we must wait for the KY Gov results before we assumed Mnchin is DOA we were supposed to have 200 H seats 229 we're Safe R according to COOK and Sabato, Stella

When are users gonna wait until 2023 when the results are for KY Gov to wait to call WV SEN, in addition in some polls Biden is 50/50 like D internals Greenberg always had the GCB 51/47 D

It's good to go against the grain we need 218/217 and 51/4.9 S to end the Filibuster it's not a midterm it's a Prez race last time we got 80/75M in a Prez race in 2020 Rs the PVI this time but failed in WI, MI and PA , and you live in KY and you know KY is an R plus 20 state, McConnell won by 20 just like WVA if Beshear can win 23 so can Manchin in 24 and there are no POLL

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's gonna be a 51/49 Senate anyways we can afford to lose 1 seat but it's 2 yrs till Eday

I will never underestimate Brown, Manchin or Tester since they won in both 2012/18

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think this Seat is gone

Lol do you know Eday is two yrs from now it's nowhere near 24 yet and Ds are gonna do better with Biden on the ballot Manchin and Tester and Brown all won in 2012/2018

Users act like Eday is yesteryear and inflation is gonna be 7% in 24 Biden Approvals aren't going down they going up Biden is leading Trump 51(49 in FL where DeSantis win by 20 and Warnock is leading if the Approvals were going down Trump would be leading in FL and Walker winning, wait for awhile before polls come out pollsters are obsessed with Prez primary that's why they keep polling

It's a 303 map anyways but it's 4.2 unemployment Incumbents especially D Incumbents as we saw with Johnson have a better chance of survival as Johnson did better than Michels because he was an incumbent and Brown is gonna do better than Ryan because Brown as a 3*Incumbents

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Looks like Manchin already has a fundamentally good opponent, so I'm going to tentatively call him done. I think we should give him enough funding to make the GOP waste money in WV, just so we can focus our arsenal on defense and taking out Cruz, but other than that I'm willing to say that this one's gone.

Manchin, Brown and Tester aren't DOA or Beshear as I have said many times unless a Fabio AARP poll show they are losing and so far there aren't any they predicted Evers and Johnson winning accurately although they had Johnson up 51/46 and Evers up 50/47

It's two yrs til Eday it's just Rs anxiety that since Ryan lost then Beshear and Brown and Tester and Manchin are DOOMED, and as Johnson proved in blue state WI there are no auto flips with Incumbents, it was an upset when Johnson won because it's blue state WI

Beshear, Brown and Tester and Manchin have similar approvals as Johnson and Johnson was at near 50% that's why he won , if you are an incumbent at 50% you usually don't lose just like all the GCB show Ds at 48/45 that's a 303 map Biden isn't losing in 24

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Manchin could even beat Justice.

Seriously.

It's not enough to change my rating from Lean R at most.

Granted, it would be a LOT easier for Manchin in a non-presidential year. Especially if Trump is on the ballot, it will be quite hard for him to win. But Manchin has defied the odds for years. Betting completely against him now would be foolish. This is a soft Lean R for me. I think it's slightly more likely to flip than not, but by no means is Manchin "done." He absolutely can win and I wouldn't be surprised if Justice (who looks like his heart will give out any minute) doesn't or can't run and if it's Mooney or any other challenger? Well, my gut if not my brain (and my gut has proved smarter in recent years) tells me Manchin wins outright! He's just more "West Virginia" than those other challengers are, and believe it or not the people of West Virginia know and appreciate that fact.

I mean seriously, just think about it: In 2018, you had several Democratic incumbents in ostensibly "less red" states who got blown away. Manchin survived. In 2018, Trumpism was in full swing and was aimed against Manchin in maybe the Trumpiest state in the country. Manchin survived. If he wasn't gonna be beaten then, why would he now? Literally the only reason is increased presidential turnout of people voting for Trump/R Senate Candidate. If it's not Trump on the ballot, however? Or maybe even if it is if Manchin plays all his cards right? He can survive again!

Did you know WVA split it's votes between Bush W and Jay Rockefeller and Robert C Byrd since 2000 WVA has elected Ds for S and Rs for Prez and we just saw split ticket voting this Eday and NC Gov split it's votes for Trump and GOV COOPER in 2020 we should wait for a series of polls before it's rating, for Goodness sakes there are no ratings yet for 23/24 and Beshear won in an R plus 20 state and is favored in 23

Cook and Sabato haven't put any ratings out, and 2012 WVA and MT split it's votes between Romney and Manchin and Tester even in a Prez yr

You live or go by KY and KY is very much an R plus 20 state like WV and elected Beshear because he has the family name well Manchin is in Robert C Byrd seat and has the D name behind him

It won't be a landslide either way in WVA, OH, MT, TX or FL because unlike in 22 in a Prez race Ds are expected to win the PVI

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This seat is gone even if Manchin's opponent is a cross between Roy Moore and OJ Simpson.

No it's not

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WVA split its votes for Prez and Senate since 2000 this state isn't gone until a poll comes out there are split votes and Beshear isn't doomed either because he has a 60 percent Approvals why do users come on this thread and keep saying Manchin is doomed and hes not until a poll comes out

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This seat is gone even if Manchin's opponent is a cross between Roy Moore and OJ Simpson.

After Roy Moore himself lost in f--king Alabama, I don't know how anyone could say this with a straight face. It betrays a tragic misunderstanding of West Virginia politics. Manchin himself clearly still thinks he can win, btw, and he knows more about winning elections in West Virginia than probably anyone else alive. Underestimate him at your own peril.

t
WVa isn't AL and it has clearly voted for Rockefeller and Byrd at the same time Bush W


Oh and for the record: Underestimate ME at your own peril, too. Especially when it comes to states in this region.