WV-SEN 2024: Manchin out, Justice for All

[MT Treasurer]

CLARKSBURG, W.Va. (WV News) — West Virginia’s senior U.S. senator, Joe Manchin, a Democrat, told a $5,000-a-plate lunch crowd during a recent fundraiser in Florida that he plans to run for re-election in 2024, CNBC reports.

The fundraiser, hosted by Wall Street titan Nelson Peltz at his Florida estate, fuels speculation that the Republican Party continues to court Manchin, perhaps even to run for president against President Joe Biden, CNBC reports.

Peltz has been a major donor for Republicans, and the lunch crowd of about 50 people was believed to be mostly GOP supporters.

https://www.wvnews.com/news/wvnews/report-sen-manchin-tells-fundraiser-crowd-he-will-run-for-re-election-in-2024-amid/article_1664796a-bf4e-11ec-84c2-4f8aabeb0b0e.html

[SnowLabrador]

Unless he switches parties, he's not winning.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I still don't think he can win, but could he lose by less than Brown?

[NerdyBohemian]

WV will thank him by voting for a Republican by > 60%.

[SnowLabrador]

Unless he switches parties, he's not winning.

He’s literally made WV believe he’s a Republican even as he voted to confirm a liberal Supreme Court Justice. If those numbers are even close to accurate, he doesn’t "need" to switch parties to win reelection.

He's not actively running for reelection right now. Once the campaign has truly begun, the GOP will attack him as a communist pedophile, and his numbers with Republicans will go way down. Right now, he's useful to them for blocking Biden's "agenda", but they'd still rather have someone who wouldn't have confirmed KBJ.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Democrats should run someone credible like a state legislator to run for the Green (or Mountain if it still exists) Party nomination and give them enough money to run ads.  Better to throw the election to a generic Trump Cultist than risk letting Manchin win again

[Xing]

And nearly all of those Republicans will still happily vote for a literal Republican who will vote with the Party 100% of the time.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I believe in this polls accuracy about as much as I believe in the ability of my pet cats being able to turn blue and start to fly sometime.

[NYDem]

Democrats should run someone credible like a state legislator to run for the Green (or Mountain if it still exists) Party nomination and give them enough money to run ads.  Better to throw the election to a generic Trump Cultist than risk letting Manchin win again

Is this satire?

[President Johnson]

Unless he switches parties, he's not winning.

He’s literally made WV believe he’s a Republican even as he voted to confirm a liberal Supreme Court Justice. If those numbers are even close to accurate, he doesn’t "need" to switch parties to win reelection.

He's not actively running for reelection right now. Once the campaign has truly begun, the GOP will attack him as a communist pedophile, and his numbers with Republicans will go way down. Right now, he's useful to them for blocking Biden's "agenda", but they'd still rather have someone who wouldn't have confirmed KBJ.

Does anybody in West Virginia even care about KBJ's confirmation vote? I doubt it. Let alone we're talking about an election not taking place for another 2.5 years.

I'm still not convinced Manchin can win, given how close 2018 was against a weak Republican, but you never know.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Imagine if WV Rs fail to defeat Manchin...again

[One Term Floridian]

Imagine if WV Rs fail to defeat Manchin...again

@realInvincibleTitan

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Imagine if WV Rs fail to defeat Manchin...again

He has a 60% Approval like Laura Kelly and Sherrod Brown and Andy Beshear and Jon Tester Rs don't have a Monopoly on red states, they can take blue states but we can't take red states we have won Red states LA, NC, OH, AZ, KY WV,, ND, IN and KS outside of FL and TX

There is a Border Wall in TX and a Cuban Embargo in FL that's why Rs win in TX and FLORIDA

[Vosem]

I still think what he wants in 2024 is WV-Gov.

[Ferguson97]

If he somehow wins again in 2024 I will literally never complain about him ever again.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

In 2018 Manchin voted for Kavanaugh, was in a huge blue wave and was in an era of less polarization and yet he still won by 3%. He won't win in 2024.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In 2018 Manchin voted for Kavanaugh, was in a huge blue wave and was in an era of less polarization and yet he still won by 3%. He won't win in 2024.

Lol did you know we didn't win 80 M votes in 2018 that's why even in this Environment we can still replicate the blue wall despite the R advantage voter registration went up from 90 M to 125/150 M the myth is we won just as many votes as we did 2018/2020

Anyways he's running in a Prez yr it's 80 percent TURNOUT

Also it's important to note WV and MT split their votes for Prez and Sen in 2o12 and OH with Obama and Biden and Turnout was 65)60 M 125 M votes

[Huey Long is a Republican]

In 2018 Manchin voted for Kavanaugh, was in a huge blue wave and was in an era of less polarization and yet he still won by 3%. He won't win in 2024.

Honestly, all the talk about #candidatequality and #inelasticity is overblown when it comes to federal races on this forum. Tester, Manchin, and Brown are doomed no matter their approvals. In all their elections, they were incredibly fortunate in some ways - 2006 Blue Wave, 2010 WV Spec Sen was Manchin a popular governor against a non-serious candidate, 2012 had a re-elected Democratic President at the top of the ballot, and 2018 was a blue wave. Everytime an election happened for them, the environment was in the Democrats' favor. Hell, one could even extend this to Baldwin, Stabenow, King, Casey, Sinema, Rosen, and Klobuchar as well as maybe Menendez, and Heinrich. Favorable environments ensured their wins, not the "inelasticity" of the state or "quality" of a Candidate. That might have mattered pre-2000, but not anymore. It depends on who turns out their base more. Now, I know it's 2 years until 2024 and a lot can happen between now and then, but I think Manchin, Tester, and Brown are screwed as long as the GOP doesn't nominate people like Timken or Morrissey

[Roll Roons]

So this probably doesn't hurt McKinley: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5DQqCtMAN9c&t=29s

[Mr. Smith]

He still loses.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He still loses.

No he won't Rs don't have a monopoly on Red states just like Rs think we don't have a monopoly on blue states they feel that in an R wave they can take blue states but we can't take red states hypocrisy

[Utah Neolib]

Quite intriguing numbers, but the 2022 midterms aren’t even over yet and the smear campaign hasn’t gone full force yet. I’m 75% sure Manchin will still lose, but if he wins again, he’s truly an ELECTORAL TITAN!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I previously said Rs don't have a monopoly on Red states

That's why I make the Predictive map that I do we don't know whom is gonna win the scarse state by state polls

[MillennialModerate]

I still think what he wants in 2024 is WV-Gov.

I’m sure what you mean is he’s will settle for that.

That’s a race he can win. Senate will be an uphill battle unless by some miracle it was a Dem landslide nationally (which would bring GOP POTUS numbers from 70 down to around 60-65% which gives Manchin an outside shot. But even that is a LONGGGGG shot.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I still think what he wants in 2024 is WV-Gov.

I’m sure what you mean is he’s will settle for that.

That’s a race he can win. Senate will be an uphill battle unless by some miracle it was a Dem landslide nationally (which would bring GOP POTUS numbers from 70 down to around 60-65% which gives Manchin an outside shot. But even that is a LONGGGGG shot.

.

Not. MT and WVA in 2012 split their votes for Prez and S with Biden and Obama Romney easily win MT and WV and Tester, Brown and Manchin all won

I have statistics two