Argentina 2023 election

[kaoras]

Colombia will soon overtake Argentina's economy for the first time ever. And with the migration from Venezuela to Colombia they get additional people to employ as well. I believe Colombia will be among the biggest 'newcomers' on the Latin American theater as a future modern powerhouse, however Brazil and Mexico obviously are from a different category.

I wonder where Colombia gets all that money from. (wink)

Where?

Oh come on.

?

He appears to be under the delusion that drug money is counted in the GDP

[oldtimer]

Colombia will soon overtake Argentina's economy for the first time ever. And with the migration from Venezuela to Colombia they get additional people to employ as well. I believe Colombia will be among the biggest 'newcomers' on the Latin American theater as a future modern powerhouse, however Brazil and Mexico obviously are from a different category.

I wonder where Colombia gets all that money from. (wink)

Where?

Oh come on.

?

He appears to be under the delusion that drug money is counted in the GDP

I'm under the delusion that drug money can be laundered into something that counts into GDP.
Like Real Estate.

[kaoras]

Colombia will soon overtake Argentina's economy for the first time ever. And with the migration from Venezuela to Colombia they get additional people to employ as well. I believe Colombia will be among the biggest 'newcomers' on the Latin American theater as a future modern powerhouse, however Brazil and Mexico obviously are from a different category.

I wonder where Colombia gets all that money from. (wink)

Where?

Oh come on.

?

He appears to be under the delusion that drug money is counted in the GDP

I'm under the delusion that drug money can be laundered into something that counts into GDP.
Like Real Estate.

If you knew anything at all about LatAm you would know that all that real state is in Miami.
Anyway, enough with this.

[jman123]

Sunday is the first Presidential debate.

[jman123]

Argintineans seem to have a belief that Milei will be the inevitable winner.

[Peeperkorn]

Sunday is the first Presidential debate.

Link to watch the debate, it starts in 45 minutes:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cc0BhQcXdC0

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

My main takeaway from the debate is that Patricia Bullrich is a dope. She's like Argentina's answer to Rick Perry; a candidate with a good resume but when she's put under any kind of pressure whatsoever she just crumbles. She somehow managed to be completely rehearsed and totally unprepared at the same time.

Schiaretti sounded surprisingly reasonable, though it helped that he clearly had some kind of pact with Milei to set each other up with easy questions, something caused by the weird format of when you can and can't respond to someone.

Bregman had a few incisive attacks (particularly against Massa) and was more effective than anyone else in using the limited responses efficiently but was held down by having to defend Communism.

Massa's presentation was fine and his attacks on other candidates ranged from "competent" to "laughable" but he has no defense whatsoever for his terrible record as minister.

Milei was in full economist mode for the first half and thus was relatively calm but was also probably going way over the heads of the average viewer. Later on he became a lot spicier and while I wouldn't say he won I'd say he did better than Massa or especially Bullrich, whose entire career he ended with an innocuous question about Leliqs.

[jman123]

My main takeaway from the debate is that Patricia Bullrich is a dope. She's like Argentina's answer to Rick Perry; a candidate with a good resume but when she's put under any kind of pressure whatsoever she just crumbles. She somehow managed to be completely rehearsed and totally unprepared at the same time.

Schiaretti sounded surprisingly reasonable, though it helped that he clearly had some kind of pact with Milei to set each other up with easy questions, something caused by the weird format of when you can and can't respond to someone.

Bregman had a few incisive attacks (particularly against Massa) and was more effective than anyone else in using the limited responses efficiently but was held down by having to defend Communism.

Massa's presentation was fine and his attacks on other candidates ranged from "competent" to "laughable" but he has no defense whatsoever for his terrible record as minister.

Milei was in full economist mode for the first half and thus was relatively calm but was also probably going way over the heads of the average viewer. Later on he became a lot spicier and while I wouldn't say he won I'd say he did better than Massa or especially Bullrich, whose entire career he ended with an innocuous question about Leliqs.

Do you think this is heading for a first round win or is this going to a runoff?

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

My main takeaway from the debate is that Patricia Bullrich is a dope. She's like Argentina's answer to Rick Perry; a candidate with a good resume but when she's put under any kind of pressure whatsoever she just crumbles. She somehow managed to be completely rehearsed and totally unprepared at the same time.

Schiaretti sounded surprisingly reasonable, though it helped that he clearly had some kind of pact with Milei to set each other up with easy questions, something caused by the weird format of when you can and can't respond to someone.

Bregman had a few incisive attacks (particularly against Massa) and was more effective than anyone else in using the limited responses efficiently but was held down by having to defend Communism.

Massa's presentation was fine and his attacks on other candidates ranged from "competent" to "laughable" but he has no defense whatsoever for his terrible record as minister.

Milei was in full economist mode for the first half and thus was relatively calm but was also probably going way over the heads of the average viewer. Later on he became a lot spicier and while I wouldn't say he won I'd say he did better than Massa or especially Bullrich, whose entire career he ended with an innocuous question about Leliqs.

Do you think this is heading for a first round win or is this going to a runoff?

I'd guess that it's more likely than not that there's a Milei-Massa runoff but a first round victory is entirely possible, particularly if Bullrich completely collapses.

[Peeperkorn]

I wouldn't call that an actual "debate", the format was quite terrible and most interventions sounded like fragments of premade speeches (and I wouldn't be surprised if it was structured that way in order to avoid Milei attacking everyone a la Trump).

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS

The Argentine legislative elections will occur concurrently with the 1st round of the presidential elections on the 22nd of October. Seats in the Chamber of Deputies are distributed provincially according to the D'Hondt method and just over half of those seats (130/257) are up for grabs in this election. Whereas Senate seats are determined solely by placement: the winner in each province gets two Senators while the runner up gets one, with a third of the Senate (24/72) getting renewed in this election. There are also Parlasur elections but I don't care enough about those to give them a writeup

Anyway, going province by province:

BUENOS AIRES (Province):

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PASO results:

Unión por la Patria: 31% (14 deputies, 2 senators)
Juntos por el Cambio: 29% (12 deputies, 1 senator)
La Libertad Avanza: 22% (9 deputies)

Likely Range:

Unión por la Patria 8-16 deputies, 0-2 senators
Juntos por el Cambio: 7-14 deputies, 0-2 senators
La Libertad Avanza: 9-16 deputies, 0-2 senators)

BUENOS AIRES (City):

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PASO results:

Juntos por el Cambio: 46% (7 deputies)
Unión por la Patria: 22% (3 deputies)
La Libertad Avanza: 19% (2 deputies)

Likely Range:

Juntos por el Cambio: 4-8 deputies
Unión por la Patria 2-5 deputies
La Libertad Avanza: 2-5 deputies

CÓRDOBA:

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PASO results:

La Libertad Avanza: 33% (3 deputies)
Hacemos por Nuestro País: 27% (3 deputies)
Juntos por el Cambio: 25% (3 deputies)

Likely Range:

La Libertad Avanza: 3-5 deputies
Hacemos por Nuestro País: 2-4 deputies
Juntos por el Cambio: 2-4 deputies

SANTA FE:

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PASO results:

La Libertad Avanza: 34% (4 deputies)
Juntos por el Cambio: 31% (4 deputies)
Unión por la Patria: 20% (2 deputies)

Likely Range:

La Libertad Avanza: 4-6 deputies
Juntos por el Cambio: 2-5 deputies
Unión por la Patria: 1-3 deputies

MENDOZA:

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PASO results:

La Libertad Avanza: 44% (3 deputies)
Cambia Mendoza (JxC): 27% (1 deputy)
Unión por la Patria: 16% (1 deputy)

Likely Range:

La Libertad Avanza: 2-4 deputies
Cambia Mendoza (JxC): 1-2 deputies
Unión por la Patria: 0-1 deputies

CATAMARCA:

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PASO results:

Unión por la Patria: 43% (2 deputies)
Juntos por el Cambio: 21% (0 deputies)
La Libertad Avanza: 14% (0 deputies)

Likely Range:

Unión por la Patria: 1-2 deputies
Juntos por el Cambio: 0-1 deputies
La Libertad Avanza: 0-1 deputies

CORRIENTES:

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PASO results:

ECO + Vamos Corrientes (JxC): 35% (2 deputies)
Unión por la Patria: 29% (1 deputy)
La Libertad Avanza: 27% (1 deputy)

Likely Range:

Juntos por el Cambio: 1-2 deputies
Unión por la Patria: 1-2 deputies
La Libertad Avanza: 1-2 deputies

CHACO:

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PASO results:

Unión por la Patria: 34% (1 deputy)
La Libertad Avanza: 26% (1 deputy)
Juntos por el Cambio: 26% (1 deputy)

Likely Range:

Unión por la Patria: 1-2 deputies
La Libertad Avanza: 1-2 deputies
Juntos por el Cambio: 0-2 deputies

CHUBUT:

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PASO results:

La Libertad Avanza: 37% (1 deputy)
Juntos por el Cambio: 23% (1 deputy)
Unión por la Patria: 23% (1 deputy)

Likely Range:

La Libertad Avanza: 1-2 deputies
Juntos por el Cambio: 0-1 deputies
Unión por la Patria: 0-1 deputies

ENTRE RÍOS:

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PASO results:

Más para Entre Ríos (UxP): 30% (2 deputies)
Juntos por Entre Ríos (JxC): 28% (1 deputy)
La Libertad Avanza: 17% (1 deputy)

Likely Range:

Más para Entre Ríos (UxP): 1-2 deputies
Juntos por Entre Ríos (JxC): 1-2 deputies
La Libertad Avanza: 1-2 deputies

FORMOSA:

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PASO results:

Unión por la Patria: 45% (2 deputies, 2 senators)
La Libertad Avanza: 24% (1 deputy, 1 senator)
Juntos por el Cambio: 21% (0 deputies)

Likely Range:

Unión por la Patria: 1-2 deputies, 2 senators
La Libertad Avanza: 0-1 deputies, 0-1 senators
Juntos por el Cambio: 0-1 deputies, 0-1 senators

JUJUY:

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PASO results:

Partido Renovador Federal (LLA): 33% (1 deputy, 2 senators)
Cambia Jujuy (JxC): 23% (1 deputy, 1 senator)
Unión por la Patria: 22% (1 deputy)

Likely Range:

Partido Renovador Federal (LLA): 1-2 deputies, 2 senators
Cambia Jujuy (JxC): 0-1 deputies, 0-1 senators
Unión por la Patria: 0-1 deputies, 0-1 senators

LA PAMPA:

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PASO results:

Juntos por el Cambio: 30% (1 deputy)
Unión por la Patria: 28% (1 deputy)

Likely Range:

Juntos por el Cambio: 1 deputy
Unión por la Patria: 1 deputy

LA RIOJA:

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PASO results:

La Libertad Avanza: 33% (1 deputy, 2 senators)
Unión por la Patria: 30% (1 deputy, 1 senator)
Juntos por el Cambio: 20% (1 deputy)

Likely Range:

La Libertad Avanza: 1-2 deputies, 1-2 senators
Unión por la Patria: 1-2 deputies, 1-2 senators
Juntos por el Cambio: 0-1 deputies

MISIONES:

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PASO results:

Frente Renovador (UxP): 24% (2 deputies, 2 senators)
Juntos por el Cambio: 19% (2 deputies, 1 senator)

Likely Range:

PASO results:

Frente Renovador (UxP): 1-3 deputies, 1-2 senators
Juntos por el Cambio: 1-3 deputies, 1-2 senators

NEUQUÉN:

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PASO results:

Arriba Neuquén (LLA): 33% (1 deputy)
Juntos por el Cambio: 21% (1 deputy)
Unión por la Patria: 16% (0 deputies)

Likely Range:

Arriba Neuquén (LLA): 1-2 deputies
Juntos por el Cambio: 0-1 deputies
Unión por la Patria: 0-1 deputies

RÍO NEGRO:

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PASO results:

Partido Fe (LLA): 34% (1 deputy)
Unión por la Patria: 23% (1 deputies)
Juntos por el Cambio: 19% (1 deputy)

Likely Range:

Partido Fe (LLA): 1-2 deputies
Unión por la Patria: 0-1 deputies
Juntos por el Cambio: 0-1 deputies

SALTA:

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Ahora Patria (LLA): 47% (2 deputies)
Unión por la Patria: 23% (1 deputy)
Juntos por el Cambio: 17% (1 deputy)

Likely Range:

Ahora Patria (LLA): 2-3 deputies
Unión por la Patria: 1-2 deputies
Juntos por el Cambio: 0-1 deputies

SAN JUAN:

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PASO results:

Unión por la Patria: 31% (1 deputy, 2 senators)
La Libertad Avanza: 31% (1 deputy, 1 senator)
Juntos por el Cambio: 29% (1 deputy)

Likely Range:

Unión por la Patria: 1-2 deputies, 0-2 senators
La Libertad Avanza: 1-2 deputies, 0-2 senators
Juntos por el Cambio: 0-1 deputies, 0-1 senators

SAN LUIS:

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PASO results:

La Libertad Avanza: 43% (1 deputy, 2 senators)
Juntos por el Cambio: 24% (1 deputy, 1 senator)
Unión por San Luis (UxP): 17% (0 deputies)

Likely Range:

La Libertad Avanza: 1-2 deputies, 2 senators
Juntos por el Cambio: 0-1 deputies, 0-1 senators
Unión por San Luis (UxP): 0-1 deputies, 0-1 senators

SANTA CRUZ:

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Unión por la Patria: 18% (1 deputy, 2 senators)
Cambia Santa Cruz: 12% (1 deputy, 1 senator)
(lol)

Likely Range:

Unión por la Patria: 1 deputy, 1-2 senators
Cambia Santa Cruz: 1 deputy, 1-2 senators

SANTIAGO DEL ESTERO:

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PASO results:

Frente Cívico por Santiago (UxP): 51% (3 deputies)
Unión Celeste y Blanco (LLA): 23% (1 deputy)
Juntos por el Cambio: 5% (0 deputies)

Likely Range:

Frente Cívico por Santiago (UxP): 2-4 deputies
Unión Celeste y Blanco (LLA): 0-2 deputies

TUCUMÁN:

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PASO results:

Unión por la Patria: 32% (2 deputies)
Fuerza Republicana (LLA): 28% (2 deputies)
Juntos por el Cambio: 17% (1 deputy)

Likely Range:

Unión por la Patria: 1-3 deputies
Fuerza Republicana (LLA): 1-3 deputies
Juntos por el Cambio: 0-2 deputies

TIERRA DEL FUEGO:

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PASO results:

Republicanos Unidos (LLA): 30% (1 deputy)
Unión por la Patria: 21% (1 deputy)
Juntos por el Cambio: 18% (1 deputy)

Likely Range:

Republicanos Unidos (LLA): 1-2 deputies
Unión por la Patria: 1 deputy
Juntos por el Cambio: 0-1 deputies

Total Range:

Unión por la Patria: 26-57 deputies, 5-14 senators

Juntos por el Cambio: 21-60 deputies, 2-10 senators

La Libertad Avanza: 33-65 deputies, 5-11 senators

[jman123]

New poll out. Clarín

Milei 37
Massa 26
Bullrich 18

[jman123]

Second debate tomorrow night

[jman123]

Second debate finished. Any thoughts?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Second debate finished. Any thoughts?

Did not watch and don't know if you'll get any responses, but I would appreciate your commentary if you did either way.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Massa gave up on trying to be Mr. Moderate Economy Minister and went ham tossing around money to buy his place in the runoff. This temporarily boosted his poll numbers but now the chickens are coming home to roost and the central bank is completely out of ammunition; in just a few days the Blue Dollar skyrocketed from 800-1 to over 1000-1. Combined with various corruption scandals it seems Massa's situation is going to be grim going into the first (and possibly only) round.

Also while I didn't see the second debate what I've heard is that if anyone the biggest electoral winners from the debates have been Schiaretti and Bregman, who might gain a few deputies mostly at the expense of Massa. This dynamic is the one thing keeping the slim possibility of Bullrich in the runoff alive despite her utterly inept post-PASO campaign. The dynamics of the three way race are such that if Bullrich does too badly then Milei wins in the first round while if she does too well then she could displace Massa. The results from the provincial elections were universally bad for the government but Chaco was by far the worst in that unleashing the fiscal spigots failed to prevent a humiliating first round defeat in a province Massa actually won in the PASO.

Recent polling - which should still be taken with a huge grain of salt considering that they universally missed Milei's strength - has Milei right on the edge of a first round victory thanks to the strategic voters switching to him from Bullrich. It remains to be seen if the pollsters will gain some partial redemption this time around, but if they're even remotely accurate then whether there will be a second round will come down to whether one of Bullrich or Massa manage to get over 30% and raising the runoff threshold and how many blank votes there are which aren't counted and effectively lower the runoff threshold.



Yet despite the divisions there are still issues where Argentines are united:

https://twitter.com/ElTrumpista/status/1711777751294672918

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Earlier this week some audio files got leaked which seem to paint  Carlos Melconian, Patricia Bullrich's pick for economy minister and one of her main asvisors as having a history of being a sex pest/casting couch kind of guy
Initially they were largely dismissed by the media as the reporter that leaked them is a relative nobody and a sleazy known liar, with Bullrich first bizarrely claiming them to be "AI deepfakes" and later saying they are real but altered, taken out of  context, or fake or something, while Melconian is still cliaming that they're definitely fake (while at the same time claiming they're the result of illegally obtained files?)

And the second debate revealed that Patricia and Melconian's relation is a lot more distant than what you'd expect from a presidential candidate and one of their main advisors and who's been a large focus of her campaign for a couple of months

In more neutral news, Bullrich announced that Horacio Rodríguez Larreta will be her pick for jefe de gabinete (chief of staff but as a cabinet-level position)

[Velasco]

This may sound like self-immolation or political suicide:

The woman in the video says that she couldn't afford the price of the bus ticket without the government's subsidy

- i can't renounce subsidy. It's a measure that shouldn't be implemented

- Who are you going to vote?

- Milei, obviously

- Milei is going to remove the subsidy

- It doesn't matter

https://twitter.com/DanteForesi/status/1715226824697938391?t=hBeuU1bzRbDEyufK5Aw...

This is the mood in a large part of the Argentinian aociety, apparently. The woman is aware that she cannot afford the market price and won't be able to use public transport anymore, but she's going to vote for the man who will remove all subsidies and cut all public spending with his famous motosierra (chainsaw). This is imposible to understand appealing to rationality,  for it's an emotional response caused by a deep sense of weariness

[afleitch]

This may sound like self-immolation or political suicide:

Such is right wing populism. And as much as I don't wish voters to suffer under it, the experience of it is sometimes the only way to shake people of their naivety.

[Mike88]

Regarding this election and the future of Argentina, I will only quote this common saying from my country: "Seja o que Deus quiser." (It's in God's hands.)

[Edu]

Cute seeing the eurotards worried about right wing populism while staying silent about the left wing (and right wing peronism!) populism that ravaged this country for 28 of the past 40 years. the remaining 12 years were also pretty crap tbh. If you are looking for rationality in our politics, you have been out of luck for a few decades by now (and I'm guilty of that too! lol). Also, the reason for Milei is that people are suffering right now, so spare me your tears about naivety or whatever.

In any case whoever wins, the country will still go to hell, so who care. If Milei is going to guillotine someone I hope it will be Cristina and Macri first lol

Imho, the probability of who gets elected right now is 1 - Milei, 2 - Massa, 3 - Bullrich, 4 - Schiaretti and 5 - Bregman. I think that Schiaretti would be the only one that could maybe have a somewhat decent and stable government, but he's not going to win so again, who care.

My plan is to get drunk today and tomorrow afternoon flip a coin to see if I will bother to go vote, then I'll flip a coin to see if I'll vote Bregman or Schiaretti, then I'll get drunk again and then I will stop caring again about politics here like i've been doing for the past decade or so. Will start concentrating about my trips to Italy in january and Belgium in April after this whole tiresome election is done for.

Good night

[PSOL]

Cute seeing the eurotards worried about right wing populism while staying silent about the left wing (and right wing peronism!) populism that ravaged this country for 28 of the past 40 years. the remaining 12 years were also pretty crap tbh. If you are looking for rationality in our politics, you have been out of luck for a few decades by now (and I'm guilty of that too! lol). Also, the reason for Milei is that people are suffering right now, so spare me your tears about naivety or whatever.

In any case whoever wins, the country will still go to hell, so who care. If Milei is going to guillotine someone I hope it will be Cristina and Macri first lol

Imho, the probability of who gets elected right now is 1 - Milei, 2 - Massa, 3 - Bullrich, 4 - Schiaretti and 5 - Bregman. I think that Schiaretti would be the only one that could maybe have a somewhat decent and stable government, but he's not going to win so again, who care.

My plan is to get drunk today and tomorrow afternoon flip a coin to see if I will bother to go vote, then I'll flip a coin to see if I'll vote Bregman or Schiaretti, then I'll get drunk again and then I will stop caring again about politics here like i've been doing for the past decade or so. Will start concentrating about my trips to Italy in january and Belgium in April after this whole tiresome election is done for.

Good night

Will you vote for either candidate's party for Parliament or Senate if that is the case or will you ensure your vote is optimized for most negligible impact?

[Velasco]

If you are looking for rationality in our politics, you have been out of luck for a few decades by now.

I know that. I had a conversation a week ago with an old friend from Argentina and we reached similar conclusions. Given that my friend believes in Jesus Christ and admires Pope Feancis, I asked him if he was going to pray.  His answer was "yes"

[Edu]

Will you vote for either candidate's party for Parliament or Senate if that is the case or will you ensure your vote is optimized for most negligible impact?

If I go vote, I'll vote for JxC in the City of Buenos Aires mayoral and the city legislature elections. Not sure what I'll do with the national chamber of deputies (we don't have senate elections in the city this time around).

[Edu]

Also, for another prediction, I think it's more likely that Massa ends up 1st (but triggering a runoff) than Bullrich getting into a runoff with either of the other two (however, a second round between Massa and Bullrich would be hilariously anti-climatic)