Argentina 2023 election

[Red Velvet]

Again, you're trying to compare Brazilian and Argentinean politics and that's wrong. Brazil never had anything similar to Peronism that makes the left-right axis irrelevant.

Political polarization doesn’t need to be left vs right in order to effectively exist. And it’s showing signs it does clearly exist in Argentina, the strong party system at most represses it but not necessarily limits it or stops it.

If Milei ends up in 1st; Massa 2nd, you won’t be able to say Milei votes didn’t come mostly from people who are more sympathetic towards JxC than they are to Peronists. This is THEIR “election” after all. Even if Milei has a broad overperformance regardless of region.

[Peeperkorn]

https://twitter.com/ElTrumpista/status/1690883141089509376

https://twitter.com/osojudio/status/1690883371881136128

It would be crazy if Milei wins thanks to the provinces' votes instead of CABA's.

[Peeperkorn]

Again, you're trying to compare Brazilian and Argentinean politics and that's wrong. Brazil never had anything similar to Peronism that makes the left-right axis irrelevant.

Political polarization doesn’t need to be left vs right in order to effectively exist. And it’s showing signs it does clearly exist in Argentina, the strong party system at most represses it but not necessarily limits it or stops it.

I was talking about clientelism, do you live in Sweden?

[Red Velvet]

Again, you're trying to compare Brazilian and Argentinean politics and that's wrong. Brazil never had anything similar to Peronism that makes the left-right axis irrelevant.

Political polarization doesn’t need to be left vs right in order to effectively exist. And it’s showing signs it does clearly exist in Argentina, the strong party system at most represses it but not necessarily limits it or stops it.

I was talking about clientelism, do you live in Sweden?

Well then in that case that’s a big prejudice and misconception of yours about Brazil itself, to think that the shift from PSDB to Bolsonaro easily happened because of buying of votes (??) instead of the people’s actual will.

You didn’t live here between 2015-2018. As much as I hate Bolsonaro, I can fully say that people (filled with anti-PT hate and propaganda for four years straight) WANTED him because they wanted a radical change and break with the system.

Also, if you recognized before that Bolsonaro didn’t have partisan backing, then where the hell he got money to pay for votes?? Lmao. His campaign didn’t have any money in 2018, he was a nobody then. It was a full grassroots movement.

2022 is a different story, as he had the government machine on his side as president. But since we’re talking about 2018, what you’re saying makes absolutely zero sense.

In terms of political behaviors and culture, Argentina might actually be the closest country there is in the entire world to Brazil.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

The Joker made an appearance at Massa's closing event

https://twitter.com/therealbuni/status/1690887397788020737

[Mike88]

Larreta has conceded defeat and has congratulated Bullrich.

[Edu]

I'm planning to watch C5N if Massa + Grabois are below 30%. But I don't think that will happen.

I regret to inform you that I tried to watch them just now but they are absolutely insufferable, so I had to quit. I rather read Red Velvet's "analysis" than subject myself to C5N a minute longer.

[Mike88]

61.21% counted:

32.6% Milei
27.6% JxC
25.5% UP

[Peeperkorn]

Pintó C5N.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

The map of the results is really something.

Milei relatively weak in CABA, narrowly first (as a candidate, ahead of Massa) in PBA, absolute gangbusters in the most remote provinces.

[kaoras]

61.21% counted:

32.6% Milei
27.6% JxC
25.5% UP

UP could still end up ahead of JxC lol.

Hmmm, that % is the rock bottom of Peronism or there are still voters that could switch to Bullrich as the only one who could plausibly beat Milei?

[kaoras]

Also, this is going to make Chilean political discurse even more insufferable than already is. I still remember how Bolsonaro was the hot sh*t among the right in 2018.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

61.21% counted:

32.6% Milei
27.6% JxC
25.5% UP

UP could still end up ahead of JxC lol.

Hmmm, that % is the rock bottom of Peronism or there are still voters that could switch to Bullrich as the only one who could plausibly beat Milei?

Or who could switch to Milei now that they see him as viable (insofar as this result wasn’t precisely those such people doing that exact thing).

[Mike88]

65.18% counted, by candidate with more than 1.5%:

32.2% Milei
20.8% Massa
17.0% Bullrich
10.7% Larreta
  5.0% Grabois
  5.0% Schiaretti
  1.7% Bregman

[Edu]

Anyone that tries to make predictions of what could happen in october is talking out of their ass

Anyway, this is hilarious, I'll be diving into the weird electoral maps all night lol

[Edu]

Pintó C5N.

Try and read Pagina12 online too, I'm sure the comments are hilarious

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

https://twitter.com/LLibertadAvanza/status/1690903958510866432

I expected Milei to be stronger in the interior and to outperform the polls but this is still kind of a surreal experience.

Lots of analysis tomorrow

[Lumine]

That result for Larreta - if it holds - is outright sad. He was leading the polls - and was the candidate with the highest approval rating -, and now he goes home with 10% and after having mishandled the voting process in his province.

[Peeperkorn]

Again, you're trying to compare Brazilian and Argentinean politics and that's wrong. Brazil never had anything similar to Peronism that makes the left-right axis irrelevant.

Political polarization doesn’t need to be left vs right in order to effectively exist. And it’s showing signs it does clearly exist in Argentina, the strong party system at most represses it but not necessarily limits it or stops it.

I was talking about clientelism, do you live in Sweden?

Well then in that case that’s a big prejudice and misconception of yours about Brazil itself, to think that the shift from PSDB to Bolsonaro easily happened because of buying of votes (??) instead of the people’s actual will.

You didn’t live here between 2015-2018. As much as I hate Bolsonaro, I can fully say that people (filled with anti-PT hate and propaganda for four years straight) WANTED him because they wanted a radical change and break with the system.

Also, if you recognized before that Bolsonaro didn’t have partisan backing, then where the hell he got money to pay for votes?? Lmao. His campaign didn’t have any money in 2018, he was a nobody then. It was a full grassroots movement.

2022 is a different story, as he had the government machine on his side as president. But since we’re talking about 2018, what you’re saying makes absolutely zero sense.

In terms of political behaviors and culture, Argentina might actually be the closest country there is in the entire world to Brazil.

I think that you misunderstood me 100%, what I was trying to say is that I thought (maybe until today) that political machines in Argentina (Peronism) were more powerful than yours and therefore Brazil was a "healthier" democracy.

[Edu]

Currently, Malena Galmarini (Massa's wife) is losing the primary against incumbent mayor of Tigre, Zamora

[Edu]

Antártida Argentina with a combined vote for Millei, Bullrich and Larreta of 93,43% lol

[Red Velvet]

Again, you're trying to compare Brazilian and Argentinean politics and that's wrong. Brazil never had anything similar to Peronism that makes the left-right axis irrelevant.

Political polarization doesn’t need to be left vs right in order to effectively exist. And it’s showing signs it does clearly exist in Argentina, the strong party system at most represses it but not necessarily limits it or stops it.

I was talking about clientelism, do you live in Sweden?

Well then in that case that’s a big prejudice and misconception of yours about Brazil itself, to think that the shift from PSDB to Bolsonaro easily happened because of buying of votes (??) instead of the people’s actual will.

You didn’t live here between 2015-2018. As much as I hate Bolsonaro, I can fully say that people (filled with anti-PT hate and propaganda for four years straight) WANTED him because they wanted a radical change and break with the system.

Also, if you recognized before that Bolsonaro didn’t have partisan backing, then where the hell he got money to pay for votes?? Lmao. His campaign didn’t have any money in 2018, he was a nobody then. It was a full grassroots movement.

2022 is a different story, as he had the government machine on his side as president. But since we’re talking about 2018, what you’re saying makes absolutely zero sense.

In terms of political behaviors and culture, Argentina might actually be the closest country there is in the entire world to Brazil.

I think that you misunderstood me 100%, what I was trying to say is that I thought (maybe until today) that political machines in Argentina (Peronism) were more powerful than yours and therefore Brazil was a "healthier" democracy.

I think that’s more of a myth tbh, coming from the fact that Peronism can take any shape from right (90s) or left (00s onwards).

Nowadays, Peronism is firmly associated with the left and since it presents more “left” options that naturally opens doors for alternatives to rise.

I mean, if the current government is disliked and there isn’t opposition to them other than outside peronism, then it’s kind of a given that these forces will rise? People define political forces much more than political forces define them. I mean, at least outside USA, that’s a place where I would be shook to see an outsider from the two big parties win, there you need to co-opt one of the parties to your side.

But in Argentina isn’t much of a surprise at all to me, under the current context. I even see signs of what I saw later emerging in Brazil 2022, with CABA being heavily the biggest JxC stronghold now, while Milei and Peronism dominate regions in the interior.

It’s exactly what you would expect from the “Populist Right”, it’s usually way more popular outside the big cities. São Paulo city, for instance, was always a PSDB friendly city in comparison to others. Once PSDB collapsed, it became way more undefined, going for Bolsonaro in 2018 (year the left was very unpopular) and for Lula in 2022 (year the right was more unpopular).

If 2nd round is Bullrich vs Milei, CABA will probably go Bullrich and be one of the “leftist” in the country.

If 2nd round is Massa vs Milei, CABA will overwhelmingly go Milei and be one of the more “right-wing” ones otoh, as peronism has more strength in the interior areas.

And in the scenario where it’s Massa vs Milei and Milei wins and does and awful Bolsonaro-like government, attacking all human rights possible while economy stays bad, don’t doubt the possibility of CABA in 2027 becoming way more “Peronist-friendly” in comparison to other parts of the country either, where Milei will retain his force no matter what he says.

In Brazil, the “left-wing shift” from 2022 came exactly from the big cities in the South and Southeast, which were extremely in favor of Bolsonaro in 2022. The close association to those in Argentina is CABA.

[Vosem]

https://twitter.com/trumperizar/status/1690905511116386304?s=46&t=-ymuyMIAGx...

Heard that beautiful and insane things are happening in Argentina tonight; hopefully you guys seal the deal over the next two rounds. ¡Qué zarpado!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Antártida Argentina with a combined vote for Millei, Bullrich and Larreta of 93,43% lol

The UP vote there has gone as far south as the area's latitude.

[Edu]

Also, worst performance by the FIT in presidential primaries since 2011 since they are at 2,50% (and still could be the worst which was 2,46%)