Will TX and FL switch positions in the 2nd half of this decade?

[Sir Mohamed]

FL used to be a slightly red-leaning swing state while TX used to be Republican's CA, a large state pretty much safe for them. Looking ahead into the 2nd half of this decade or into the 2030s, how likely do you think it these 2 will switch positions? Ergo, FL becoming a solid red state Dems don't even bother to contest anymore, while TX becomes a swing state just slightly R-leaning.

I think this pretty much about to happen. I'm still surprised FL has moved so far to the right in recent years. After the 2012 election and the GOP autopsy of that year, I firmly believed FL would become a D-leaning state, therefore locking Republicans out of the WH.

[Mr.Phips]

I think it’s pretty likely.  I still don’t think TX will be quite as competitive as Florida in 2008/2012 or Florida quite as red as TX was in those years, but FL will be to the right of TX potentially as early as 2024.

[DS0816]

Will TX and FL switch positions in the 2nd half of this decade?

In part—yes.

Every time the presidency has switched parties, dating back to 1968, there has been at least one pickup state which has not flipped back to the party which lost it. (I wrote about this here: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=441838.msg8079566#msg8079566.)

I am conscious of the nation’s Top 10 populous states because 53 to 54 percent of the citizens (as do I) live in one of those states.


Top 10 populous states:
01. California
02. Texas
03. Florida
04. New York
05. Pennsylvania
06. Illinois
07. Ohio
08. Georgia
09. North Carolina
10. Michigan


Since 1992, with the average number of carried states by presidential elections winners at 29 (a range of 25 to 32 carried states), the highest number of Top 10 states carried has been 8. This was applicable to 1996 Bill Clinton and 2008 Barack Obama. With re-election in 2012, Obama carried 7. That was true with the first-term election for 1992 Clinton. And this was the case with 2016 Donald Trump.

Estimate on likely states for prevailing Republicans and Democrats:


Republican
01. Ohio
02. Florida
03. * Texas
04. * North Carolina
05. * Pennsylvania
06. * Michigan
07. Georgia
08. Illinois
09. New York
10. California

Democratic
01. California
02. New York
03. Illinois
04. Georgia
05. * Michigan
06. * Pennsylvania
07. * North Carolina
08. * Texas
09. Florida
10. Ohio


Bellwethers—starting with the two of the Rust Belts and two more from the South—are marked with an asterisk *.

What this means, for the Republicans, is that they should go to work on bringing change to their party to go after replacing Georgia—which, along with Arizona, may have realigned to the Democrats beginning in 2020—by pursuing California and Illinois (which vote alike) or New York.

[Person Man]

Will TX and FL switch positions in the 2nd half of this decade?

In part—yes.

Every time the presidency has switched parties, dating back to 1968, there has been at least one pickup state which has not flipped back to the party which lost it. (I wrote about this here: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=441838.msg8079566#msg8079566.)

I am conscious of the nation’s Top 10 populous states because 53 to 54 percent of the citizens (as do I) live in one of those states.


Top 10 populous states:
01. California
02. Texas
03. Florida
04. New York
05. Pennsylvania
06. Illinois
07. Ohio
08. Georgia
09. North Carolina
10. Michigan


Since 1992, with the average number of carried states by presidential elections winners at 29 (a range of 25 to 32 carried states), the highest number of Top 10 states carried has been 8. This was applicable to 1996 Bill Clinton and 2008 Barack Obama. With re-election in 2012, Obama carried 7. That was true with the first-term election for 1992 Clinton. And this was the case with 2016 Donald Trump.

Estimate on likely states for prevailing Republicans and Democrats:


Republican
01. Ohio
02. Florida
03. * Texas
04. * North Carolina
05. * Pennsylvania
06. * Michigan
07. Georgia
08. Illinois
09. New York
10. California

Democratic
01. California
02. New York
03. Illinois
04. Georgia
05. * Michigan
06. * Pennsylvania
07. * North Carolina
08. * Texas
09. Florida
10. Ohio


Bellwethers—starting with the two of the Rust Belts and two more from the South—are marked with an asterisk *.

What this means, for the Republicans, is that they should go to work on bringing change to their party to go after replacing Georgia—which, along with Arizona, may have realigned to the Democrats beginning in 2020—by pursuing California and Illinois (which vote alike) or New York.

They would probably have better luck pursuing comfortable wins in the 20-25 EVs they barely lost in 2016 (NV,ME,NH,MN) than going after one big blue state. Then again, just like an opening is emerging in Texas and closing in Florida (which makes sense for it to be the Republican California if you really think about it), there could be an opening in some of the Northeast suburbs like NJ,DE,RI...or basically any NY/NE state that isn't New York or Massachusetts. 

[Xing]

I don't see Florida starting to vote Republican by 15-20% like Texas used to, though it could certainly end up more Republican-leaning than Texas, especially if Texas becomes a true Toss-Up state.

[Person Man]

I don't see Florida starting to vote Republican by 15-20% like Texas used to, though it could certainly end up more Republican-leaning than Texas, especially if Texas becomes a true Toss-Up state.

If Democrats don't win again anytime soon (we have a two or three-term GOP administration getting elected next), I foresee Democrats winning Texas by the mid-single digits and Florida being lost by perhaps slightly more when they win their next one in the 2030s.