🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 3.0 (2024 snap elections: Azores 4 Feb; General 10 Mar)
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  🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 3.0 (2024 snap elections: Azores 4 Feb; General 10 Mar)
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VPH
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« Reply #1150 on: February 10, 2024, 08:55:49 AM »

Not sure if this was mentioned here, but CHEGA's platform was written in part by a former PAN MP, Cristina Rodrigues. I read she's gotten into some hot water for being more progressive than many CHEGA members on abortion.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1151 on: February 10, 2024, 10:28:03 AM »
« Edited: February 10, 2024, 10:32:11 AM by Mike88 »

whats the number of mp they want and what electoral reform do they support?

From what I'm aware, no details at all, which is the usual in CHEGA. Just something to show off, probably.

Not sure if this was mentioned here, but CHEGA's platform was written in part by a former PAN MP, Cristina Rodrigues. I read she's gotten into some hot water for being more progressive than many CHEGA members on abortion.

CHEGA is a mess of positions and values, you can easily find someone who is favour and against something all at the same time, or who don't know what they actually believe, like that young guy in CHEGA's congress, last month, who said he defends what Ventura believes, and when asked by a reporter what is it that Ventura believes, he replied that "well, I don't read people's thoughts". Cool Wink
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Mike88
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« Reply #1152 on: February 10, 2024, 01:21:55 PM »

CDU election manifesto:

The manifesto launch was two weeks ago, but the event was quite overshadowed by the Azores campaign, the Sócrates case and the Madeira political crisis. Nonetheless, CDU leader Paulo Raimundo criticizes the "rightwing policies" of the last PS governments, that didn't resolve the country's problems and that benefited special interests, pointing that the latter was the reason for the fall of António Costa. Raimundo also pointed to the low wages and pensions, plus the rise in the cost of living and the degradation of the NHS and Education. The main policies:

- Minimum wage at 1,000 euros already in 2024;
- Reduction of working hours, maximun 35 hours per week;
- 25 holiday days for all workers;
- Ensure family doctors (GP) and nurses to all the population;
- Turn the NHS is an universal and free system with full public management;
- Measures to stop big media monopolies;
- Pension rises of 7.5%;
- Maximum age for retirement at 65 years old;
- 6% VAT on water, gas and electricity;
- Renationalization of airports and end of tolls on highways;
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Mike88
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« Reply #1153 on: February 11, 2024, 08:15:53 AM »
« Edited: February 11, 2024, 05:46:47 PM by Mike88 »

10 February debates:

- Luís Montenegro (PSD/CDS/PPM) vs Paulo Raimundo (PCP), 8:30pm, RTP1:




It was a debate by distance, Raimundo was in Lisbon while Montenegro in Porto. The debate started with the post-10 March situation, with Montenegro pressing that he "will win" and be PM, however, if that doesn't happen, Montenegro was asked if would support a PS minority, which was responded by an "awkward" silence from him. Raimundo says that a possible support of a PS minority from the PCP depends on the policies. On pensions, Raimundo proposed a 7.5% increase, that would cost 1,6 billion euros, while Montenegro "trashed" these numbers saying they have no "feasibility". Raimundo then responded by going back to the troika years and accusing the PSD of cutting pensions, in which Montenegro replied that he assumes his responsabilities during that time, but that the country was bankrupt and that the pensions cuts were signed by the PS, not the PSD. On wages, PCP proposes a 15% increase in both the public and private sector, worth 15 billion euros, while Montenegro focused on the growth of the average wage;

- Pedro Nuno Santos (PS) vs Inês Sousa Real (PAN), 9pm, TVI:




The debate was marked by the possible "bridges" between PS and PAN post-election day. Regarding a possible support to a PS minority, Sousa Real presses that all depends on the PS' policies and how far they support PAN's causes, while Nuno Santos pressed that many of PAN' policies were approved because of the PS and accused PAN of being "ambiguous" regarding the right-wing. The new, and still to be decided, Lisbon airport divided both leaders, with PNS pressing for the construction in Alcochete, while Sousa Real wants to use already existing infrastructures, like the empty Beja airport. Then the debate went to railways, with Sousa Real criticizing the state and abandonment of the railways, but with PNS pressing that "The railway country is under works because of me". On tax cuts, Sousa Real wants to cut corporate taxes to 17%, with benefits for those companies that have "green policies", while Nuno Santos prefers to change other contributions rather than corporte taxes. As the debate was closing, the NHS was debated with Nuno Santos pressing to continue the ongoing PS policies, and PAN saying that changes are needed in the current path;
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Mike88
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« Reply #1154 on: February 11, 2024, 06:03:27 PM »
« Edited: February 11, 2024, 06:19:57 PM by Mike88 »

PS unveils their election manifesto:


Quote
This afternoon, the socialists presented the electoral program for the 2024 legislative elections.

In a looong speech, more than 1 hour and a half long, PS leader Pedro Nuno Santos presented his manifesto to the March election. "Change" was the main word of his whole speech, but without "undoing or destroying" what has been done by the current PS government, and with Fernando Medina, Costa's Finance minister, right in front of him, PNS said his government will not be one where "the Finance minister makes the shots". He also talked about personal situations, like his friend who criticized the "tons of taxes" that he pays, but then got cancer, was treated in the NHS and never again complained about taxes. Nuno Santos also criticized the right-wing for their "phobia" that tax cuts solve everything. The main policies are:

- Higher income tax dedutions on rents;
- Free glasses for poorer children;
- Supports in the purchase of electric cars;
- Free preschool education;
- More use of resources in the NHS to do exams and cut waiting lists;
- More psychologists in the NHS and in schools;
- VAT cut in electricity that will benefit 3,4 million people;
- National minimum wage of 1,000 euros until 2028;
- Total recovery of teachers' frozen career and wage progressions;
- End of tolls in highways in rural Portugal and the Algarve;
- Strong investment in high-speed railways;
- Rapid decision of the location of the new Lisbon airport;
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Mike88
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« Reply #1155 on: February 11, 2024, 08:59:57 PM »
« Edited: February 12, 2024, 09:27:36 AM by Mike88 »

11 February debates:

Luís Montenegro (PSD/CDS/PPM) vs Inês Sousa Real (PAN), 8:50pm, SIC:




It was a very tense confrontation, with Sousa Real "surprising" Montenegro. The debate started with Sousa Real "throwing to the table" statements made by PPM leader, Gonçalo da Câmara Pereira, back in 2017 in which he defended that it's "legitimate to hit a woman", and confronted Montenegro with these statements accusing the AD coalition of disparaging women. Montenegro said he condemns the statements and was unaware of them, but the tone of the debate was set, everytime Montenegro tried to "corner" Sousa Real, she accused him of diminishing her. Montenegro rejected Sousa Real's tone and pressed on policies to fight domestic abuse and to lower the wage gap between men and women. The debate then turned to bullfighting with Sousa Real accusing Montenegro of supporting it and that the AD supports "animal torture", in which Montenegro accused Sousa Real of "litany" that is far away from the truth. With the environment also present, Sousa Real pressed that the AD is against the green agenda, and Montenegro responded with the PSD's past as a "leading party" in environment causes;

- Mariana Mortágua (BE) vs Paulo Raimundo (CDU), 10pm, SIC Notícias:




If BE and PCP have similar views on national affairs, they start to diverge regarding international affairs. Both agree that the 2015 "Geringonça" deal gave more "stability and solutions" to the country than the PS minority/majority governments, as the 2015 solution, both agree, forced the PS to fulfill its promises. However, if Mortágua wants a written deal with the PS, Raimundo is not that open to it, and was quite vague on his answer. Then euthanasia entered in the debate and BE and PCP diverged, and then the war in Ukraine. Raimundo says that all are to blame in the war in Ukraine from Russia to NATO, while Mortágua pressed on more EU security and that any peace deal has to ensure the self-determination of Ukraine. Mortágua also criticized PCP for having difficulties is criticizing regimes like the Angolan and the Chinese;
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Mike88
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« Reply #1156 on: February 12, 2024, 09:23:49 AM »

Final and certified results of the Azorean February 4th 2024 regional elections:

% of vote; Party/coalition; (Votes cast); Seats; Seat change

42.08% PSD/CDS/PPM (48,672 votes), 26 seats (nc)
35.92% PS (41,538), 23 (-2)
  9.19% CHEGA (10,627), 5 (+3)
  2.54% BE (2,936), 1 (-1)
  2.15% IL (2,482), 1 (nc)
  1.65% PAN (1,907), 1 (nc)
  1.57% CDU (1,821), 0 (nc)
  0.64% Livre (735), 0 (nc)
  0.54% JPP (626), 0 (new)
  0.33% ADN (378), 0 (nc)
  0.00% A21 (4), 0 (nc)

  3.40% Blank/Invalid ballots (3,929)

50.30% Turnout (115,655)
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« Reply #1157 on: February 12, 2024, 04:30:14 PM »

Is it thought likely that the AD will become a perma-coalition, de-facto single party similar to the L/NP Coalition or Union? CDS have no reason to believe they will one day be relavent alone again.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1158 on: February 12, 2024, 05:31:04 PM »

Is it thought likely that the AD will become a perma-coalition, de-facto single party similar to the L/NP Coalition or Union? CDS have no reason to believe they will one day be relavent alone again.

Everything points to that, as CDS is, right now, totally dependent on the PSD. There could be some areas where, in local elections, PSD and CDS still contest separately, but nationwide, we're almost certainly heading into a "merge" of the two parties. However, the coalition's result on 10 March will be very important to see what kind of future there is for the two parties. (Also because a November election is still quite possible)
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Mike88
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« Reply #1159 on: February 12, 2024, 06:07:10 PM »
« Edited: February 12, 2024, 06:28:43 PM by Mike88 »

12 February debate:

Luís Montenegro (PSD/CDS/PPM) vs André Ventura (CHEGA), 9pm, RTP1:




In the longest debate so far, 40 minutes, Wow! Cool, Montenegro and Ventura faced each other, for the first time, and, let's just say that when 3 people start speaking at the same time, no one understands a word. The debate was marked by several interruptions, either from the moderator or the candidates, and it started with the post-10 March scenarios, with Montenegro pressing that he will not accept being PM if he's not the most voted and refused anykind of deal with CHEGA, which he labeled as "populist, racist, xenophobic" and the "zero degree of politics". Ventura responded by accusing Montenegro of being indecisive and that the PSD just wants to "jump into the lap" of the PS, thus being, in his words, an "useful idiot for the left". Pressed if he would support an AD minority regardless of a deal or not, Ventura only said he was willing to "talk". The debate then headed to the "weird" policies of CHEGA in their manifesto, like the right of police officers to go on strike, with Montenegro accusing Ventura of "instrumentalizing" the security forces problems to his benefit, while Ventura responded that the PSD governments "trampled" police officers and that the party failed them. The fiscal policies of CHEGA were also used by Montenegro to accuse Ventura of being incompetent, and while responding, Ventura was quite confusing on how he will get the money to fund his plans. Both also clashed on pensions, with Montenegro accusing Ventura of being unrealistic, but Ventura pressed that unlike the PSD, he doesn't need to "reconcile" with pensioners.
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« Reply #1160 on: February 12, 2024, 06:44:18 PM »

Montenegro pressing that he will not accept being PM if he's not the most voted and refused anykind of deal with CHEGA, which he labeled as "populist, racist, xenophobic" and the "zero degree of politics".

I have to say, it's quite a breath of fresh air to see the leader of a European center-right party actively hostile to the far-right instead of trying to court them.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1161 on: February 13, 2024, 02:15:16 PM »

Montenegro pressing that he will not accept being PM if he's not the most voted and refused anykind of deal with CHEGA, which he labeled as "populist, racist, xenophobic" and the "zero degree of politics".

I have to say, it's quite a breath of fresh air to see the leader of a European center-right party actively hostile to the far-right instead of trying to court them.

The question is if his party will allow it. The main talking point that this election could lead to a deadlock and possible new elections in October/November, is that if Montenegro wins, then the ball is on CHEGA and the PS, but if he polls second, will he follow up on his word? Will he resign or be kicked out by his own party? Will the PSD use the deadlock in order to change its leadership and form a government? And let's not forget President Marcelo's role in the whole process.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1162 on: February 13, 2024, 08:08:31 PM »
« Edited: February 14, 2024, 07:03:12 AM by Mike88 »

13 February debates:

- Paulo Raimundo (CDU) vs Rui Tavares (Livre), 6:15pm, CNN Portugal:




It was much more a "conversation" rather than a debate, despite the big gap between both being Ukraine. Both are open for a "broad" compromise on the left, but criticized the PS' strategy of tactical voting saying that the only way to have either Livre's or CDU's policies is by voting in these parties, and not the PS. The war in Ukraine was the big split between both men, however, Tavares pointed that the Communists position on Ukraine will not be a problem in a future left-wing deal. Tavares said he's a strong "Europeanist" and that Europe should fight against "imperialism", either from Russia or the US. Raimundo tried, once again, to explain his party's position on Ukraine saying that both sides need to talk of peace and stop the war. On the controversial CHEGA proposal of giving police officers the right to strike, CDU and Livre sided with CHEGA;

- André Ventura (CHEGA) vs Mariana Mortágua (BE), 10pm, RTP3:




Tense, tense, tense, was the mood of this debate, with a lot of personal attacks and insults from both sides. The debate started with the housing crisis, with Mortágua accusing CHEGA of supporting Golden Visas and of being in the "pocket" of big corrupt real estate interests. Ventura responded that the housing shortage is due to short supply and big demand, and accused BE of being hypocrite regarding housing, putting on the table the "Robles affair", a BE Lisbon councillor that sold a building by almost 5,7 million euros after buying by just 347,000 euros, and Catarina Martins' Airbnb business. Mortágua pressed on the connections of Ventura with special interests, and Ventura started accusing BE of having "terrorists" in their lists, in which Mortágua responded that it is CHEGA that has terrorists, highlighting the role of CHEGA MP Diogo Pacheco de Amorim in the far-right terrorism organization, Democratic Movement for the Liberation of Portugal (MDLP), during the 70's. An exchange between "you should be ashamed of yourself" and "he killed a priest" started. On immigration, Ventura pointed that the shutdown of the former border control agency, SEF, was a major mistake and that the country cannot allow more people to enter if it doesn't have conditions to integrate them. Mortágua says that CHEGA defends "politics of hate" and that immigrants are an important part of your society.

The history of Mortágua's grandmother came up again, with Ventura accusing her of "lying", while Mortágua pressed, strongly, she's not a liar and the her grandmother received a letter saying that her rent could increase in the future. The government's 400 million euros gender ideology package also came up with Ventura saying he is favour of more resources against domestic abuse, but that mixing everything up is a mistake. Mortágua criticized Ventura for his rejection of the package. The debate ended with Mortágua saying "she's closer to being in government" unlike Ventura, as she pointed that "no one wants to sit next to you because of your xenophobic and racist positions";
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« Reply #1163 on: February 14, 2024, 04:16:30 AM »

The debate ended with Mortágua saying "she's closer to being in government" unlike Ventura, as she pointed that "no one wants to sit next to you because of your xenophobic and racist positions";
Ouch.
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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #1164 on: February 14, 2024, 04:50:36 AM »

Montenegro pressing that he will not accept being PM if he's not the most voted and refused anykind of deal with CHEGA, which he labeled as "populist, racist, xenophobic" and the "zero degree of politics".

I have to say, it's quite a breath of fresh air to see the leader of a European center-right party actively hostile to the far-right instead of trying to court them.

The question is if his party will allow it. The main talking point that this election could lead to a deadlock and possible new elections in October/November, is that if Montenegro wins, then the ball is on CHEGA and the PS, but if he polls second, will he follow up on his word? Will he resign or be kicked out by his own party? Will the PSD use the deadlock in order to change its leadership and form a government? And let's not forget President Marcelo's role in the whole process.
considering ps got in to government because of the support of the far right the centre right got every right to do the same with chega some of the polls suggest a majority like the right did in 2011 or even bigger even if ps comes first
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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #1165 on: February 14, 2024, 04:51:14 AM »

Montenegro pressing that he will not accept being PM if he's not the most voted and refused anykind of deal with CHEGA, which he labeled as "populist, racist, xenophobic" and the "zero degree of politics".

I have to say, it's quite a breath of fresh air to see the leader of a European center-right party actively hostile to the far-right instead of trying to court them.

The question is if his party will allow it. The main talking point that this election could lead to a deadlock and possible new elections in October/November, is that if Montenegro wins, then the ball is on CHEGA and the PS, but if he polls second, will he follow up on his word? Will he resign or be kicked out by his own party? Will the PSD use the deadlock in order to change its leadership and form a government? And let's not forget President Marcelo's role in the whole process.
considering ps got in to government because of the support of the far right the centre right got every right to do the same with chega some of the polls suggest a majority like the right did in 2011 or even bigger even if ps comes first
my theory on this could be just Montenegro trying to gain voters from chega
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Mike88
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« Reply #1166 on: February 14, 2024, 06:53:07 AM »

Intercampus poll for CMTV and CM/Negócios newspapers:

Vote share %: (after 12.4% of undecideds are excluded)

27.8% PSD/CDS/PPM (+3.5)
25.6% PS (-5.3)
18.8% CHEGA (-0.6)
  7.5% IL (+1.2)
  6.2% BE (-2.5)
  3.7% PAN (+1.1)
  3.1% CDU (-1.5)
  3.1% Livre (+1.6)
  4.2% Others/Invalid (+2.5)

Popularity ratings: (between 1 and 5)

2.7 Luís Montenegro (+0.2)
2.7 Rui Rocha (+0.1)
2.7 Inês Sousa Real (+0.1)
2.7 Mariana Mortágua (nc)
2.7 Rui Tavares (nc)
2.6 Nuno Melo (+0.1)
2.5 Pedro Nuno Santos (nc)
2.3 Paulo Raimundo (nc)
2.3 André Ventura (nc)

Poll conducted between 6 and 10 February 2024. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.00%.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1167 on: February 14, 2024, 07:28:26 AM »

considering ps got in to government because of the support of the far right the centre right got every right to do the same with chega some of the polls suggest a majority like the right did in 2011 or even bigger even if ps comes first
my theory on this could be just Montenegro trying to gain voters from chega

You're refering to the 2022 election, when the PS used the PSD "vagueness" regarding CHEGA and achieved a surprise majority, right? Anyway, of course the PSD is trying to "charm" CHEGA voters into voting in the AD, pressing on tactical voting, as in "spreading your vote, will end up in a PS victory". In the debate, Montenegro talked directly to CHEGA voters, basically saying that voting CHEGA is a waste vote.

Now, the question regarding CHEGA's possibility of supporting or being included in government, is very debatable because of the nature itself of the party. Unlike other right-wing/far-right parties in Europe, CHEGA doesn't have a strong structure or credible people, everything "orbits" around Ventura, and his constant changes in opinion. Plus, their policies are very confusing and a total "pig's breakfast" of left and right-wing policies that contradict themselves. It's a party that looks unstoppable, but at the same, constantly at the brink of colapse. The party lists for this election have a lot of PSD "scrap", and these people could become a problem as, for Ventura, it's easy to control 12 MPs that he picked by hand, but 30, 35, even 40 MPs, that come from all backgrounds could be the necessary ingrediants for a major split in CHEGA, something already quite common in the party.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1168 on: February 14, 2024, 02:10:25 PM »

Update on the Madeira crisis:
(...)
- Also, the 3 arrested during the raids, former Funchal mayor Pedro Calado and two businessmen, are are currently in the middle of a legal limbo, because they still haven't been inquired by a judge, for a week now, when the law says 48 hours after the arrest. Errors in the investigation, delays in receiving documentation and the ongoing strike of Court staff, is stalling the judicial process. The lawyers of the accused say that basic rights are being violated;
(...)

Judge ruling on the Madeira corruption investigation: Judge releases all 3 suspects and rules that there is "no evidence" of any crime being committed.


Quote
Madeira. Judge determined that Pedro Calado, Avelino Farinha and Custódio Correia will await trial in freedom.

It was quite a bombshell ruling. After 21 days arrested, which already raised a debate on the legality of the whole process, the judge that questioned the 3 suspects in the Madeira corruption investigation, former Funchal mayor Pedro Calado, and businesspeople Avelino Farinha and Custódio Correia, ruled that all three will be released from jail and await trial in freedom, but also "trashed" the Prosecutor's case, ruling that there are "no evidences of any crime being committed". The Prosecutor wanted the 3 suspects in jail and has announced it will appeal to the Court of Appeals (Relação).

This now begs the question: What now for the Madeira political crisis?
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« Reply #1169 on: February 15, 2024, 04:28:14 AM »

considering ps got in to government because of the support of the far right the centre right got every right to do the same with chega some of the polls suggest a majority like the right did in 2011 or even bigger even if ps comes first
my theory on this could be just Montenegro trying to gain voters from chega

You're refering to the 2022 election, when the PS used the PSD "vagueness" regarding CHEGA and achieved a surprise majority, right? Anyway, of course the PSD is trying to "charm" CHEGA voters into voting in the AD, pressing on tactical voting, as in "spreading your vote, will end up in a PS victory". In the debate, Montenegro talked directly to CHEGA voters, basically saying that voting CHEGA is a waste vote.

Now, the question regarding CHEGA's possibility of supporting or being included in government, is very debatable because of the nature itself of the party. Unlike other right-wing/far-right parties in Europe, CHEGA doesn't have a strong structure or credible people, everything "orbits" around Ventura, and his constant changes in opinion. Plus, their policies are very confusing and a total "pig's breakfast" of left and right-wing policies that contradict themselves. It's a party that looks unstoppable, but at the same, constantly at the brink of colapse. The party lists for this election have a lot of PSD "scrap", and these people could become a problem as, for Ventura, it's easy to control 12 MPs that he picked by hand, but 30, 35, even 40 MPs, that come from all backgrounds could be the necessary ingrediants for a major split in CHEGA, something already quite common in the party.
i am referring to 2016
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« Reply #1170 on: February 15, 2024, 07:26:03 AM »
« Edited: February 15, 2024, 07:29:27 AM by Mike88 »

14 February debates:

- Inês Sousa Real (PAN) vs Rui Tavares (Livre), 6:25pm, RTP3:




Both are united on environmental causes and the fight against the tactical voting in the PS, but lithium and nuclear energy divides the candidates. However, the debate started with the Madeira corruption ruling, with Tavares proposing a discussion on Justice reform, something also supported by Sousa Real, who defended PAN's support to the PSD/CDS minority in Madeira. Also, here, Tavares criticized PAN for supporting a government that "disorders the territory" and "mistreats animals". Then, Tavares proposed a "ecogeringonça", betting on renewable energies like green hydrogen, something also supported by Sousa Real. On lithium exploration, Tavares saud he has some doubts, but is open to it, while Sousa Real rejects both lithium and nuclear exploration as they are "environmentally dangerous";

- Pedro Nuno Santos (PS) vs André Ventura (CHEGA), 9pm, TVI:




The most awaited debate of the day. Just like the PAN vs Livre debate, the Madeira corruption ruling also opened the debate. PNS didn't want to comment the case specifically, saying that "Justice is working" and that we must let the process continue, while Ventura accused Nuno Santos of being "floppy" on Justice, accusing the PS of having nothing in their manifesto regarding Justice and the fight against corruption. Nuno Santos responded that CHEGA only has "fake answers" to corruption and that he didn't like the tone of Ventura. On healthcare, PNS defended more public financing of the NHS and explained the controversial policy of fixing in the NHS doctors who graduated in a public university, also accusing CHEGA of not being credible on healthcare. Ventura labeled PNS as the "amnesiac candidate", for not remembering what the PS did to the NHS, and pressed on a reform in which the public, private and social healthcare systems compete for better treatments. On fiscal policies, PNS again pointed to the lack of credibility of CHEGA's policies, as they want to cut all taxes and increase spending, and accused Ventura of "flip-flopping" as when he was a PSD member, he didn't criticized the PSD/CDS policies. Nuno Santos also "threw" at Ventura that not even the PSD "wants anything to do with you". Ventura responded by putting a new label on Nuno Santos, "minister mish-mash", for governing via whatsapp and for, regarding housing, overseeing the lowest construction levels in this century. PNS refused the accusations saying he has a "record to show for";

- Rui Rocha (IL) vs Paulo Raimundo (CDU), 10pm, RTP3:




As expected, nothing unites the two candidates, although it was bit dull debate. Like in the two previous debates of the day, Madeira was the opening topic. Rocha criticized the 21 days in jail until a judge ruling, while Raimundo defend a justice system that responds to the people's problems, as he pointed that there's a perception of lack of trust in the Justice system. On taxes, Rocha defended tax cuts, eliminating several little taxes and reducing corporate taxes to 12%. Raimundo agrees that there is a lot of "little taxes", but pointed that the Liberals didn't support a PCP bill to eliminate some of those taxes. Rocha also defended the privatization of State owned companies, while Raimundo rejected and wants TAP airlines, and others, to remain in the public sphere. On healthcare, Rocha wants the return of Public-Private Partnerships in the NHS, while Raimundo prefers to give better working conditions to NHS staff. On post-10 March scenarios, Rocha said that government posts are not the most important, while Raimundo is open to "be part and with more strength" in a left-wing majority;


Oh, you mean the support of the left-wing in 2015 to the PS, when the PSD coalition won a minority in the elections. Yes, there is that line of thought, that's why many within the PSD don't like Montenegro's "no is no" and that he will only govern if he's the most voted.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1171 on: February 15, 2024, 09:44:57 AM »

Intercampus poll for CMTV and CM/Negócios newspapers on post-10 March scenarios:

Q1: What will be the most likely outcome after the March 10 elections?

47.5% New elections
29.6% A stable government
22.9% Undecided

Q2: Preferred government solution:

16.6% AD government allied with CHEGA
12.3% AD majority government
11.2% PS government allied with BE
11.0% PS minority government without alliances
  9.5% AD government allied with IL
  9.5% AD minority government without alliances
  8.4% PS majority government
  4.1% PS government allied with AD
  1.6% PS government allied with CDU
15.6% Undecided

Poll conducted between 6 and 10 February 2024. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.00%.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1172 on: February 15, 2024, 06:29:02 PM »
« Edited: February 22, 2024, 07:36:47 AM by Mike88 »

Just one debate today:

Rui Rocha (IL) vs Mariana Mortágua (BE), 6:30pm, CNN Portugal:




In this debate, both candidates tried to "trash" each other's manifestos. Housing was the opening topic of the debate, with Rocha saying that the housing crisis is not the fault of foreigners and that one way to resolve the housing crisis is to use the empty State owned property and lower bureaucracy in licensings. Mortágua, on the other hand, defended that the problem of the housing crisis is because the "market is working", and accused construction companies of turning to luxury construction in order to have higher profits, thus proposing a mandatory share of 25% for affordable housing in all new construction. On State companies, Mortágua wants to use the public bank, CGD, to lower mortages and support housing credits, however, Rocha rejected the idea saying that the public bank needs to be privatized and let the market work. Rocha also accused BE of having a re-nationalization plan that would cost 30 billion euros, a number that Mortágua rejected. On taxes, Rocha says he wants to cut corporate taxes in order to bring big businesses to Portugal. On her part, Mortágua accused IL of proposing an "unconstitutional" flat tax on income. Regarding healthcare, Rocha accused BE of having deeply ideological policies that "anesthetizes healthcare", while Mortágua said that the chairwoman of Portugal's biggest private hospitals conglomerate, went to the Liberal's manifesto launch announcing that healthcare "is the big business of the 21st century", accusing IL of passing "checks" to the private sector;
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Mike88
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« Reply #1173 on: February 16, 2024, 06:52:20 AM »

Consulmark2 poll for Sol newspaper and Euronews:

Vote share %:

30.0% PSD/CDS/PPM (+1.9)
27.4% PS (+0.7)
18.1% CHEGA (+0.6)
  5.5% IL (-0.8 )
  4.2% BE (-3.0)
  2.9% Livre (+0.8 )
  2.6% CDU (-0.7)
  1.1% PAN (-0.1)
  8.1% Others/Invalid (+0.6)

Poll conducted between 6 and 12 February 2024. Polled 804 voters. MoE of 3.50%.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1174 on: February 16, 2024, 11:59:41 AM »
« Edited: February 16, 2024, 06:43:00 PM by Mike88 »


Update on the Madeira case, which is becoming a messy mess of a mess:

- The surprising judge ruling has restarted the "good old war" between Judges and the Prosecutor. Judges associations demand answers from the Attorney-General, and many lawyers are also trashing the Public Prosecutor, due to their constant "defeats", and calls for the resignation of Attorney-General Lucília Gago have started again;

- The Public Prosecutor and the Attorney General reacted to the ruling by "trashing" the presiding Judge on the case. The AG criticizes the Judge for the "unusual delay" in the inquiry to the suspects, 21 days when the law only allows 48 hours, and pointed that 5 other different Judges signed warrants as they believed that the evidences were strong. A story also broke out last night, that the presiding Judge and the main Prosecutor in the case have a long feud, which already had consequences for the judge, but that neither side excused themselves from the case, also raising the question of why this information is only now being made public;

- At the same time, the political situation in Madeira is not clear either. The Representative of the Republic in Madeira met this morning with President Marcelo to discuss the situation and is expected to announce a decision on what happens next tomorrow. The PSD-Madeira is also pressing for a decision, and announced that after the Judge's ruling, all options are open, even the possibility of Miguel Albuquerque be nominated again as President, but this seems to clash with the positions of CDS and PAN. Let's wait for the next episodes;
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