🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 3.0

[Mike88]

Montenegro and Bolieiro just gave their victory speeches. Montenegro said that a PSD minority can govern with stability unless the "PS and CHEGA unite", and Bolieiro said he will govern as a minority and that the ball is now on the PS side.

[Mike88]

And now, results by parish:


Image link.
Empate means tie.

[Mike88]

In terms of seats by party, PSD and PS are tied, repeating the 1996 scenario:

23 PSD (+2)
23 PS (-2)
  5 CHEGA (+3)
  2 CDS (-1)
  1 PPM (-1)
  1 BE (-1)
  1 IL (nc)
  1 PAN (nc)

Also, in Rabo de Peixe parish, where the famous Netflix series, regarding the events in that parish, was filmed, voted like this:

47.2% PSD/CDS/PPM (-11.5)
29.0% PS (+3.1)
13.3% CHEGA (+9.4)
  3.2% BE (-1.1)
  1.6% PAN (+0.3)
  1.1% IL (-0.3)
  0.8% Livre (+0.7)
  0.5% JPP (new)
  0.5% CDU (-0.1)
  0.2% ADN (new)
  2.7% Blank/Invalid (-0.6)

35.8% Turnout (-1.7)

The results are shaking the PS, who was expecting a much better result, which now faces a difficult situation: Let the PSD coalition minority govern or "throw" the PSD into CHEGA. Pundits say that the PS has no other option than to support Bolieiro's minority in the time being, but within the PS there is division: Some are publicly saying that the PS needs to support a PSD minority to block CHEGA, while others are very vague and don't want to take a strong position. Who will lead the PS-Azores is another question. Cordeiro didn't resigned, but his exit could be inevitable. His possible successor could be the son of the former Azores President Carlos César, Francisco César. But, the popularity of the César family has had better days in the Azores, so, who will lead the PS will also be crucial for the stability of the PSD minority.

[Mike88]

Madeira political crisis: Albuquerque becomes a caretaker President.

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1754532989852344636

Albuquerque formally dismissed becomes leader of a caretaker government

Miguel Albuquerque's resignation has been officially accepted by the Representative of the Republic in Madeira and Albuquerque will now lead a caretaker government. The Representative will not met with all parties seated in the regional parliament. Who will become Albuquerque successor? No one knows, as the PSD-M is delaying and delaying any decision regarding it, while opposition parties are pressing for snap elections. But, because of the trainwreck way Albuquerque managed the whole situation, plus the divisions within PSD-M between "Jardinistas" and those of "Renovação", snap elections could be almost inevitable.

[Mike88]

UCP–CESOP poll for RTP and Público newspaper:

Vote share %:

32% PSD/CDS/PPM (+1)
28% PS (nc)
19% CHEGA (+3)
  6% IL (-3)
  5% BE (-1)
  3% Livre (+1)
  2% CDU (-1)
  1% PAN (-1)
  4% Others/Invalid (+1)

Poll conducted between 24 January and 1 February 2024. Polled 1,192 voters. MoE of 2.80%.

[Mike88]

The "tsunami" of debates started this evening:

- Pedro Nuno Santos (PS) vs Rui Rocha (IL), SIC TV, 9pm:

The debate between the PS and IL leaders was rather lukewarm and quite boring, to say the least. For 30 minutes, PNS and Rui Rocha discussed the Azorean election outcome, fiscal issues, the NHS and housing. PNS started by criticizing IL for using defamatory reports against him, and didn't open much about the PS' possible position regarding the PSD minority in the Azores, saying he will "respect the autonomy of the PS-A". Rocha said that the Liberal's result was a "non-defeat" and that they are ready to support what's best for the Azores. Both then clashed regarding fiscal issues, with Rocha saying that the PS is "more of the same", while Nuno Santos labeled the Liberals as "unrealistic, adventurous and radical". Regarding the NHS, Rocha trashed the PS record, criticizing the end of Public-Private-Partnerships (PPP), and proposed more inclusion of the private sector. PNS recognized that if some PPP's work, they should continue. The debate ended with housing and the railways situation with Rocha, once again, criticizing the PS' track record, accusing Nuno Santos of being incompetent, while Santos defended his record by saying that more houses were and are being built.

- Inês Sousa Real (PAN) vs André Ventura (CHEGA), RTP3, 10pm:

Now, this debate was, as expected, more tense. Ventura and Sousa Real constantly interrupted each other, accusing one and another of lying. The debate started with the ongoing police protests, in which both candidates support the police protest, and then went to fiscal issues. Despite the tense mood between both, both leaders agree on a windfall tax, but differ on how to use that money: Ventura wants to invest in public transports, while Sousa Real wants to give it to families. Regarding housing, they both seem to agree on some policies, but, in Parliament, voted against each other, with both then exchanging accusations of stealing policies from each other. Ventura accused PAN of being a "crutch" to the PS, while Sousa Real accused Ventura of "incoherence" for saying he wants to "clean up Portugal" but has a lot of people on his lists with legal problems;

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

honestly I like the idea of all of these 1v1 debates, though obviously I'd assume it becomes white noise to Portuguese considering how many there are.

Also those Azores results are pretty bad for PS. Losing seats to CHEGA here is not acceptable.

[Mike88]

honestly I like the idea of all of these 1v1 debates, though obviously I'd assume it becomes white noise to Portuguese considering how many there are.

Also those Azores results are pretty bad for PS. Losing seats to CHEGA here is not acceptable.

I think this format doesn't work, honestly. I get that it gives equal opportunity to the parties, but, a 30-minute debate doesn't give time to put forward ideas or strategies and debate them. In the end, it's more a snapshot of who's stronger or who gave the best "soundbite". I'd prefer a series of 2 vs 2 debate format, for 90 minutes, and then the Prime Ministerial debate, the all parties debate and the smaller parties debate. Like you said, in the end it's just noise that comes out of these debates.

The PS losing support to CHEGA isn't that surprising as polling has also catched that trend, as PSD has remained stagnant, 27-28%, but the PS has plummeted and what the PS is losing seems to match what CHEGA is gaining. We see that also in the crosstabs: the PS is "collapsing" in younger and, in some degree, in middle age voters, although holding on to their "fortress" in older voters.

[VPH]

Would match with younger voters moving towards right wing populist parties in other European countries. In Portugal, I wonder too whether the memory of PS’ role in democratization is fading. Younger and middle age voters just don’t have that heroic image of PS from 1974-1976.

[Mike88]

Would match with younger voters moving towards right wing populist parties in other European countries. In Portugal, I wonder too whether the memory of PS’ role in democratization is fading. Younger and middle age voters just don’t have that heroic image of PS from 1974-1976.

Time and circumstances change parties and the PS is no exception. In fact, the PS was indeed the leading party in the fight for democracy against the Communists and those who wanted to derail the regime change, but in the 80's and until the mid 90's, the PS was actually seen as a party with outdated solutions while the PSD was the party of modernization, growth, etc. The PS changed in the mid 90's, just like New Labour in the UK, and became the party that it is today. But, since then, the party has been in power for a long time, with a lot of scandals, sleaze, incompetence, etc, and that erodes the image of the party in younger parts of the electorate.

[Mike88]

6 February debates:

- Inês Sousa Real (PAN) vs Paulo Raimundo (CDU), RTP3, 6pm:

It was a somewhat dull debate with very few moments in which both were in disagreement, and both parties refused the notion that they are in risk of "extinction" in these elections. Regarding corruption, which basically was the trigger for these snap elections, Sousa Real pressed for the legalization of lobbying in Portugal, while Raimundo was quite vague about and pointed that many have different interests regarding lobbies. Agriculture was the only point where both leaders were in some disagreement: Sousa Real accused the PCP of not supporting PAN's agriculture policies, with Raimundo separated enviornmental causes with agriculture causes. Both criticized the EU common agricultural policy, adding that the protests of farmers are just.

- Luís Montenegro (PSD/CDS/PPM) vs Mariana Mortágua (BE), TVI, 9pm:

This debate was tense with both sides striking blows to each other. Mortágua started criticizing the Democratic Alliance's healthcare policies saying they are too close to the private sector and that it will give worse and more expensive healthcare to people. Montenegro responded by saying that the current NHS crisis has the "footprint" of BE as the party supported the two first minority governments of Costa, pressing that he has a lot of hope in the NHS and that's why he wants to save it. Mortágua counter attacked with the Public-Private-Partnerships (PPP) in hospitals saying there were a disaster, while Montenegro refuted that claim saying that hospitals with PPP's had better results. On housing, Mortágua defends a rent cap, while Montenegro proposes less taxes and bureaucracy. Both then exchange blows, with Mortágua accusing the PSD of negociating gold visas with Putin's cronies and that's the reason for the high housing prices in Portugal, and Montenegro said that, with Mortágua, Portugal would become the "Cuba or Venezuela" of Europe. On wages, Mortágua trashed the AD's policy of paying a 15th month to workers free of tax, while Montenegro says that only by cutting taxes for the middle class, will the economy grow and pay higher wages;

- André Ventura (CHEGA) vs Rui Rocha (IL), SIC Notícias, 10pm:

This debate was very tense, with Ventura "slipping a lot" and Rocha even labeling Ventura as "Socialist". Both seemed to agree on taxes, but then everything changed when the details emerged. Ventura's pensions policies, that would cost up to 9 billion euros, were trashed by Rocha which accused Ventura of deceiving people and of being just another socialist. Ventura refused the accusation saying that the 9 billion euros can be paid by fighting corruption, taxing the informal economy and by using EU funds. Rocha responded that Ventura would lead Portugal into bankruptcy, with Ventura pointing that Rocha has no sympathy to poorest pensioners. TAP airlines was a hot topic of discussion with Rocha saying that privatization is the only solution, while Ventura was quite vague, by pressing that TAP is a "strategic company", which led Rocha to throw that Ventura sounds just like Pedro Nuno Santos. The debate closed with the topic of immigration, with Ventura saying that the current immigrantion strategy is a "muddle" and that those that come to Portugal need to come with good intentions. Rocha responded that the immigration strategy needs to focus on "dignity and humanism". Rocha at the very end of the debate tried to force Ventura to sign a pledge that he would not block a AD+IL minority government, but Ventura dismissed the pledge;

[VPH]

Would match with younger voters moving towards right wing populist parties in other European countries. In Portugal, I wonder too whether the memory of PS’ role in democratization is fading. Younger and middle age voters just don’t have that heroic image of PS from 1974-1976.

Time and circumstances change parties and the PS is no exception. In fact, the PS was indeed the leading party in the fight for democracy against the Communists and those who wanted to derail the regime change, but in the 80's and until the mid 90's, the PS was actually seen as a party with outdated solutions while the PSD was the party of modernization, growth, etc. The PS changed in the mid 90's, just like New Labour in the UK, and became the party that it is today. But, since then, the party has been in power for a long time, with a lot of scandals, sleaze, incompetence, etc, and that erodes the image of the party in younger parts of the electorate.

Right, and they'd probably be even weaker if they didn't control so many municipal positions and their associated resources.

[Mike88]

7 February: Just one debate.

Rui Rocha (IL) vs Rui Tavares (Livre), 6:15pm, CNN Portugal:

Not a primetime debate taking into account the hour and the channel that broadcast it. Both leaders clashed on basically all topics, from taxes to housing, with Rocha proposing a 5 billion euros on tax cuts, while Tavares, who also proposed some tax cuts, accused the Liberals of having a "rainbow vision" regarding the State and of wanting to dismantle it. Rocha responded that Tavares' vision is the same as the PS and to keeping everything the same. On healthcare, Tavares is open to more private initiative but is worried about the possible ​"unfair competition" with the NHS, while Rocha defended that only the private sector can make a difference, due to the current state of the NHS. On the 4-day work week, both may agree on the idea, but clash on how to implement it. And just like that, 37 minutes passed.

The day was also marked by the usual tension regarding these debates: There will be a final debate on the radios, with all parties seated in Parliament, but PNS refused a one-on-one debate with Montenegro also on the radio. At the same time, the AD is wanting to be represented by CDS leader, Nuno Melo, in the debates with CDU and Livre. Both parties are furious with the AD and TV networks have already said that they do not accept Melo was an invitee.

[Battista Minola 1616]

The Azores election result seems like a stalemate, which is not good for anyone involved, except CHEGA probably. Also I notice that our good old friend Corvo (and similarly nearby Flores) had a massive swing from the Monarchists to the PS; that's quite funny.

[Mike88]

The Azores election result seems like a stalemate, which is not good for anyone involved, except CHEGA probably. Also I notice that our good old friend Corvo (and similarly nearby Flores) had a massive swing from the Monarchists to the PS; that's quite funny.

It's a bit of a stalemate, but one that "cracked" both PS and CHEGA: The PS is divided in half on what to do, as you have high ranking PS members saying that the PS should abstain and let a PSD minority govern, while others, including Pedro Nuno Santos, don't want to support the PSD at all and want to vote against them. The PS-Azores decision will likely be to vote against a PSD minority. But, CHEGA is also divided as the local branch says that they will only let the PSD govern if they get cabinet posts, while the national party CHEGA says that they will never align themselves with the PS in order to bring down a PSD government. Of course, the positions taken in Azores will probably have impact on what will happen post-10 March. I mean, the likeliest result for 10 March is a PS victory with a rightwing majority, so, the result would be the PSD refusing to support a PS minority, voting it down and then new elections in November would be almost inevitable.

Corvo and Flores had results that differ a lot from the rest of the Azores. I believe this is still a result from the aftermath of the 2019 Lorenzo hurricane that damaged deeply these two islands. In 2020, the islands punished a lot the PS for its slow response, and, because the response remained slow under a PSD government, it was the PSD turn to be punished. Crals could explain it better, or if there's other reasons behind it.

[VPH]

The Azores election result seems like a stalemate, which is not good for anyone involved, except CHEGA probably. Also I notice that our good old friend Corvo (and similarly nearby Flores) had a massive swing from the Monarchists to the PS; that's quite funny.

unironically in the upcoming election, I was considering a vote for PS or a somewhat-joke-protest vote for PPM if they ran independently

[Mike88]

The Azores election result seems like a stalemate, which is not good for anyone involved, except CHEGA probably. Also I notice that our good old friend Corvo (and similarly nearby Flores) had a massive swing from the Monarchists to the PS; that's quite funny.

unironically in the upcoming election, I was considering a vote for PS or a somewhat-joke-protest vote for PPM if they ran independently

In Madeira they are running independently.

[Mike88]

8 February debate:

Mariana Mortágua (BE) vs Rui Tavares (Livre), SIC Notícias, 6:15pm:

Another dull debate, with very little that created disagreements between both sides and in which both tried to show who's the best at "seducing" the PS. The debate started with the ongoing controversy of Montenegro refusing to debate PCP and Livre and wanting Nuno Melo, CDS leader, to replace him, with both Mortágua and Tavares trashing Montenegro for his decision, and with Mortágua "trying" to respond to the story she told about her grandmother receiving a notice of eviction due to the current rent law, as there is a debate if this is really a true story or something made up. The debate went on to talk about housing in which there was little disagreement, unless regarding BE's proposal of forbidding foreigners of buying houses in Portugal, something the Livre disagrees. They both support a 4-week day, however, Mortágua criticized the idea of a universal basic income, saying it would cost 28 billion euros, and in which Tavares responded with a "let's experiment it first". On foreign affairs, Mortágua defends the exit of Portugal from NATO, while Tavares pressed on a stronger EU response.

[Mike88]

As expected, the PS will vote against a PSD minority in the Azores:

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1755920648877076975

Live/ PS-Açores announces vote against Bolieiro’s government

With no surprise, the PS-Azores leader, Vasco Cordeiro, announced that the PS will vote against the PSD/CDS/PPM minority government in the regional parliament. The PS continues to accuse the PSD and CHEGA of having a secret deal, due to their "silences" and "dubious statements", and that national politics seems to be meddling in Azorean politics. Now, the ball is in CHEGA's hands, which is also confused on what to do, one person says this, the regional party says that and Ventura says another thing.

[VPH]

Why is everybody so mad about Nuno Melo showing up for a few debates? Because he won't be the PM if AD wins? I mean it makes sense to highlight different members of the coalition if you ask me...

[Mike88]

Why is everybody so mad about Nuno Melo showing up for a few debates? Because he won't be the PM if AD wins? I mean it makes sense to highlight different members of the coalition if you ask me...

I think this is a lame controversy, just like 2 years ago when the PCP refused to attend some debates because they weren't broadcast on a main channel or in primetime. PCP and Livre say that Montenegro is the leader of AD and will only debate with him, while TV channels say that CDS doesn't have MPs so it would be unfair to the other parties. AD says that they warned TV channels that they would sent Melo to a few debates. And at the same time, PNS, who is refusing to debate Montenegro on the radios, wants, in exchange, to debate Montenegro, Melo and Câmara Pereira. Does this make any sense?

Look, this debate format doesn't work. It worked when there were just 4 or 5 parties in Parliament. I get that this gives equal opportunity to all parties with seats, but the reality is completely different and 3 debates in one day, with 30 minutes in length and with many having basically no content at all, it's just a waste of time. A new format needs to be studied.

P.S.: The matter has been resolved: Montenegro will attend the debates with PCP and Livre.

[Mike88]

CHEGA presents their electoral manifesto: Controlled immigration and NMW at 1,000 by 2026.

In a press conference where question from reporters weren't allowed, André Ventura, CHEGA's leader, unveiled the party's election manifesto for the 10 March general elections. The manifesto focus on immigration control, a rapid rise in the NMW and reform of the healthcare system. In the end of press conference, the media wasn't given the manifesto. The main policies are the following:

- Annual quotas for immigration, based on the qualifications of immigrants and the economy's needs;
- Repeal of the CPLP, Community of Portuguese Language Countries, mobility agreement;
- Creation of the crime of "illegal residence on Portuguese soil".
- Minimum wage increase to 1,000 euros by 2026;
- Cuts on VAT, corporate and fuel taxes;
- Increase of low pensions to the current NMW, worth up to 9 billion euros;
- Fiscal incentives for families with children and women protection for fiscal, labour and personal situations;
- Creation of a windfall tax for extra profits on banks, oil companies and distributors;
- Tax cuts for housing construction and State guarantee for young people to buy a house;
- Reopen of closed Courts across the country;
- Cuts in Justice resources, meaning less litigation capacity and supression of rights;
- Creation of a "National Heath System", not Service, that articulates private and public hospitals;
- Extinction of the post of CEO of the NHS;
- Life imprisonment for "heinous crimes";
- Reduction of the number of MPs and electoral reform;

[Mike88]

Democratic Alliance (AD) unveils their election manifesto:

https://twitter.com/ECO_PT/status/1755991659572027691

AD promises budget surpluses until 2028

Luís Montenegro, PSD leader and main candidate of AD, presented this afternoon the Alliance's election manifesto, titled "Safe Change". In a crowded room at the Alcântara Maritime Station in Lisbon city, Montenegro said that the Alliance wants to work for a "better country" and that it's time to "turn the page". He promised that budget surplases will continue under an AD government, with a promise of tax cuts and fighting against poverty. He also promised to negotiate with security forces, currently in protest, in order to reach a fair deal and to regulate lobbying and conflict of interests rules. The main policies:

- Tax cuts for "all the middle class";
- Flat tax of 15% for young people until 35 years old;
- Tax exemption for productivity prizes, a sort of 15th monthly payment;
- Exemption of housing tax in the first home purchase;
- Cut licence and construction bureaucracy and recover State real estate assets;
- NHS emergency plan in the first 60 days of government;
- Family doctors (GP) for all people by the end of 2025;
- Surgery and appointment vouchers when the maximum guaranteed response time in the NHS is surpassed;
- Recovery of all teachers frozen wage and career progressions, 20% by each year during the whole term;
- Income tax deductions for teachers who work more than 70 km away from their area of residence;
- Free and universial acess to pre-school and kindergartens;
- Regulated immigration in order to achieve good integration and decent living conditions;
- 50% increase in Culture budgets in the next 4 years;
- Solidarity Supplement for the Elderly equivalent to the NMW;

[Mike88]

9 February debates:

- Inês Sousa Real (PAN) vs Rui Rocha (IL), 6:20pm, SIC Notícias:

In the debate it was clear that nothing unites the Liberals with PAN, although the debate was, like many others, quite dull. The debate started with PAN criticizing nuclear energy, saying that it's in IL's manifesto, but Rocha responded that he's happy that Sousa Real read the Liberal's manifesto as the same cannot be said of PAN, who hasn't unveiled their manifesto yet. Sousa Real, embarrased, decided to not answer. On taxes, Sousa Real accused IL of only worrying about the wealthy, while Rocha pressed again on the lack of a manifesto from PAN and that PAN supported the PS in the last years, thus being an accomplice of the current state of the country;

- Pedro Nuno Santos (PS) vs Rui Tavares (Livre), 9pm, RTP1:

It was more a debate between the moderator, João Adelino Faria, and Pedro Nuno Santos rather than with Rui Tavares, as both party leaders basically agree on everything. The debate started with the Azores post-election situation, with Tavares saying that the Left needs to regain people's trust, while PNS says that the worst thing that could happen is for PS and PSD to support each other, leaving the leadership of the opposition to CHEGA. On housing, Tavares criticized the PS' performance of the last 9 years, saying it was slow to respond and now it's too late, while Nuno Santos rejected the accusation saying that Costa's policies are "already starting to produce results". On education, Nuno Santos promissed to give back all frozen career and wage progressions to teachers, while Tavares "ran away" from the topic and instead talked about what could be the "school of the future". On healthcare, Tavares says that the State already pays enough to private hospitals, while PNS defends that the future of the NHS is at stake, but is open to using private hospitals if the NHS cannot give an answer to some problems;

- Paulo Raimundo (PCP) vs André Ventura (CHEGA), 10pm, CNN Portugal:

One word to describe this debate? Awful. The debate was tense but the way the topics were discussed was just very bad. On pensions, PCP and CHEGA defend basically the same thing but disagree on how to do it, with Ventura accusing Raimundo of "ideological blindness", a criticism that, however, didn't hit Raimundo which responded that Ventura is a "demagogue and a hypocrite". On corruption, wages and taxes on banks, there were similarities but that always fell apart on, again, how to achieve them. The post 1974 revolution was even brought up with Ventura accusing the PCP of "murdering people", while Raimundo responded that Ventura will never "forgive" the PCP for the decisive role in removing the PSD/CDS government in 2015;

[Flyersfan232]

CHEGA presents their electoral manifesto: Controlled immigration and NMW at 1,000 by 2026.

In a press conference where question from reporters weren't allowed, André Ventura, CHEGA's leader, unveiled the party's election manifesto for the 10 March general elections. The manifesto focus on immigration control, a rapid rise in the NMW and reform of the healthcare system. In the end of press conference, the media wasn't given the manifesto. The main policies are the following:

- Annual quotas for immigration, based on the qualifications of immigrants and the economy's needs;
- Repeal of the CPLP, Community of Portuguese Language Countries, mobility agreement;
- Creation of the crime of "illegal residence on Portuguese soil".
- Minimum wage increase to 1,000 euros by 2026;
- Cuts on VAT, corporate and fuel taxes;
- Increase of low pensions to the current NMW, worth up to 9 billion euros;
- Fiscal incentives for families with children and women protection for fiscal, labour and personal situations;
- Creation of a windfall tax for extra profits on banks, oil companies and distributors;
- Tax cuts for housing construction and State guarantee for young people to buy a house;
- Reopen of closed Courts across the country;
- Cuts in Justice resources, meaning less litigation capacity and supression of rights;
- Creation of a "National Heath System", not Service, that articulates private and public hospitals;
- Extinction of the post of CEO of the NHS;
- Life imprisonment for "heinous crimes";
- Reduction of the number of MPs and electoral reform;

whats the number of mp they want and what electoral reform do they support?