UK Local Elections 2022

[YL]

The Yorkshire councils which counted today:

Leeds (Lab 52, Con 23, Lib Dem 8, Local Parties For Local People 6+3, Green 3, Independent 2, vacant 2)  Leeds has tended to be fairly dull in recent years, with a lot of safe wards.  As such Labour's majority is more secure than it looks; assuming they regain two seats held by ex-Labour Independents and the vacancy in Roundhay they'd need to lose six seats and that doesn't look very likely.

For the most part, Labour did quite well here, in particular winning seats in the outer north-west of the city (Horsforth and Guiseley & Rawdon) from the Tories.  But they lost a central seat to the Greens, and also managed to lose a seat in the council estate ward of Middleton Park in the south of the city to the SDP.

Bradford (Lab 51, Con 22, Lib Dem 7, Green 3, various Independents 7) Labour would need to lose seven seats to lose their majority here.  There are five wards where they're defending and didn't win last year, and Bradford is very capable of surprising results, but seven losses doesn't look likely.  Several Tory councillors have turned into Independents.

Labour gained a couple of seats each from Tories and Lib Dems, including winning in one-time BNP stronghold Queensbury thanks to a split in the Tory vote.  But they also lost a seat to the Greens and one in Little Horton to an Independent.  The Greens also beat the Tories in Craven ward in the far north-west of the borough and retook a Shipley seat they lost four years ago to a Labour councillor who eventually left Labour, so had a pretty good set of results.

Kirklees (Lab 33, Con 19, Lib Dem 9, Green 3, Heavy Woollen District Independent 1, other Independents 4) Labour is two seats short of a majority here, which is about where they've been for a few years.  They have several potential gains but also a number of awkward defences, so while they might win control they might also slip further from it.

Labour took control: they held Denby Dale quite comfortably and took Holme Valley South and Colne Valley from the Tories and Golcar from the Lib Dems.  The Tories broke through in Holme Valley North, long dominated by Independents, but their winning vote share was quite low.  In Batley West, a candidate from United Russia George Galloway's Workers Party came quite a strong second with 33% of the vote.

Calderdale (Lab 27, Con 16, Lib Dem 5, Independent 2, vacant 1) Here Labour has a narrow majority.  There are two seats Labour are defending in wards the Tories won last year (Elland and Illingworth & Mixenden) and they don't have obvious targets of their own, so they are a little vulnerable, but would need to lose somewhere else to lose their majority.  The vacancy is a Labour seat in Ovenden, which will elect two councillors this year.

Only one ward changed hands, and that was a narrow Green gain from the Tories in Northowram & Shelf.  Labour reasonably clearly carried the Calder Valley constituency thanks to their almost North Korean margins in the Upper Calder Valley wards around Hebden Bridge, and they won both wards they were defending that the Tories had won last year.

Wakefield (Lab 43, Con 16, Lib Dem 2, Ind 1, vacant 1) Labour had a poor result last year, but are still reasonably secure for control this year.  The vacancy is a Labour seat in South Elmsall & South Kirkby, which again elects two councillors this year.

Popcorn time!  Actually not that much happened in terms of seats changing hands.  The Lib Dems completed their set of three seats in Knottingley and Labour gained Horbury & South Ossett convincingly from the Tories.  They also gained Wrenthorpe & Outwood West where the sitting councillor, the Tory group leader, had been deselected and stood as an Independent, splitting the Tory vote.  As already posted above Labour carried Wakefield constituency easily; notably the Tories won Wakefield East last year, but this year it was a Labour landslide.

North Yorkshire Another massive new unitary, covering the whole of the current county council area, but not the City of York.  There are new ward boundaries with 90 councillors, slightly more than the old county council has.  This is, for the most part, a very Tory area, so something will have gone wrong for them if they don't win control.  Lib Dems often do well in Harrogate, Labour tend to win some seats in Scarborough, and Independents will probably win some seats somewhere, especially in the remoter areas of the Dales.

The Tories did win control, but only just: they ended with 47 seats.  The Lib Dems and Labour both did well in the anticipated places and some others, and Independents and Greens did well in several wards.  A pretty poor performance from the Tories IMO.

[CumbrianLefty]

One of the places to elect their first ever Green councillor yesterday was Coventry - given how much a certain other site devoted to electoral matters gets referred to on here at times, it might be notable that the winner is a regular on said forum (and unlike certain others there, a genuinely nice guy)

[YL]

Labour have gained Worthing and Crawley.

Five years ago Labour had no councillors in Worthing at all.

[DL]

As more results come in it gets more and more catastrophic for the Tories. Yesterday the spin from the Tory supporting tabloids was that a loss of more than 350 seats would be "catastrophic" for the Tories. They have now lost over 450 with more to come! They may even reach the 500 loss mark!

[afleitch]

Party vote map Scotland

Colours should be self explanatory. If I use a lighter colour, it means it was won by 'Independents' but is coloured by which party came second. In some cases by a little, in others like Orkney and Shetland a lot (which is why it looks Green).

Grey is where independents won everything

Dark grey is where no election was held because the number of nominated candidates matched the total number of STV seats awarded so there was no need for an election.

With thanks to the sublime BallotBox Scotland for access to a results database

[bore]

snip

Excellent work, thanks.

The map suggests why despite their relatively small number of gains Labour will be quietly pleased with the results, because its genuinely striking how similar their contours are (with if you were being picky a couple of swaps: Coatbridge for West Dunbartonshire and the Hamilton seats for each other) with the 2017 general election map, the solitary time in the last decade where the party had reason to be optimistic.

[afleitch]

snip

Excellent work, thanks.

The map suggests why Labour, despite their relatively small number of gains will be quietly pleased with the results, because its genuinely striking how similar their contours are (with if you were being picky a couple of swaps: coatbridge for  west dunbartonshire and the hamilton seats for each other) with the 2017 general election map, the solitary time in the last decade where the party had reason to be optimistic.

To an extent I'd agree with you.

Compared with the 2017 locals, on 'topping the ward' Labour have moved forward but also fallen back. They topped 9 wards in North Lanarkshire in 2017, now just 3. They have of course 'bled; into Glasgow. You are seeing a lot of consolidation in Labour 'rumps' that have established themselves as redoubts during various Labour collapses; so south east Edinburgh (since 2015), Dumbartonshire, East Lothian etc but there's no overall pattern to their support. The same is true of the Lib Dems who have went absolutely turbo in their own hold outs and went into the stratosphere in Broughty Ferry of all places.

Results in Perthshire and Angus is now the third set of elections since the 2017 upsets where we've seen the SNP start to claw back a lead, but not anything close to what the party can now achieve in the central belt.

[bore]

snip

Excellent work, thanks.

The map suggests why Labour, despite their relatively small number of gains will be quietly pleased with the results, because its genuinely striking how similar their contours are (with if you were being picky a couple of swaps: coatbridge for  west dunbartonshire and the hamilton seats for each other) with the 2017 general election map, the solitary time in the last decade where the party had reason to be optimistic.

To an extent I'd agree with you.

Compared with the 2017 locals, on 'topping the ward' Labour have moved forward but also fallen back. They topped 9 wards in North Lanarkshire in 2017, now just 3. They have of course 'bled; into Glasgow. You are seeing a lot of consolidation in Labour 'rumps' that have established themselves as redoubts during various Labour collapses; so south east Edinburgh (since 2015), Dumbartonshire, East Lothian etc but there's no overall pattern to their support. The same is true of the Lib Dems who have went absolutely turbo in their own hold outs and went into the stratosphere in Broughty Ferry of all places.

Results in Perthshire and Angus is now the third set of elections since the 2017 upsets where we've seen the SNP start to claw back a lead, but not anything close to what the party can now achieve in the central belt.

Yeah I think the churn is a really important point. The figures from Fife are a great example of this.  Labour went from +2 to -3 in West Fife and from -0.1 to +4 in Kirkcaldy Central - clearly one result is an improvement and the other a deterioration, but, especially when combined, neither are showing a fundamental change in Labour's position with respect to the last council elections.

And I think that's why there will be some optimism but hopefully no triumphalism from Labour, because both 2017 and this year were clear SNP victories which nevertheless, and unlike 2015, 2019 and 2021, demonstrates some potential (and potential is the key word) for weakness in the future.

[CumbrianLefty]

Lewis Baston has been one of a few to point out that the order in which local council results have tended to be announced in recent years has tended to exaggerate media "this is actually a terrible night for Labour" narratives. The most egregious example of all maybe remains 2014, when one of the first authorities to declare - Rotherham - set the tone of coverage for the next 24 hours, despite the sweeping UKIP gains from Labour there being repeated *literally nowhere else in the country*.

John Curtice in particular was frankly ridiculous in declaring pretty much unequivocal woe for the red team when less than one fifth of results had actually declared. And he, along with others, maybe got suckered by the preceding "800 losses" bull***t from the Tory camp as well.

[Alcibiades]

https://www.camdennewjournal.co.uk/article/hampstead-get-out-of-bed-call-as-labour-win-with-paper-candidate

One of my favourite stories of this year’s elections: Labour put up a paper candidate in extremely wealthy long-time Tory stronghold Hampstead Town, they do not put any resources into the ward, he still wins, and he has to be woken up and taken to the count he was told he didn’t need to bother turning up to!

[vileplume]

https://www.camdennewjournal.co.uk/article/hampstead-get-out-of-bed-call-as-labour-win-with-paper-candidate

One of my favourite stories of this year’s elections: Labour put up a paper candidate in extremely wealthy long-time Tory stronghold Hampstead Town, they do not put any resources into the ward, he still wins, and he has to be woken up and taken to the count he was told he didn’t need to bother turning up to!

It is inaccurate to call Hampstead Town a 'Tory Stronghold'. It voted Labour last year for Mayor and Assembly and definitely went red in both the 2017 and 2019 General Elections. Yes, it was traditionally much more Tory pre-Brexit (though the Lib Dems often did well back in the day) and it does remain more Tory in council elections than it does nationally. A Labour gain there is perhaps a bit surprising as they were pretty far behind in 2018, but considering how this ward has voted in other elections recently it is hardly the earth-shatteringly shocking event this article makes it out to be.

Also, according to a Labour Activist on Vote UK Forum, Mr Cohen did campaign in the ward, albeit without much support from the local Labour Party. This wouldn't make him a 'paper candidate' either, as that is someone who is persuaded to stand for a party in a ward thought to be a complete no-hope area just for the purposes of to giving their voters a candidate to vote for, but who does no campaigning, canvassing or leafletting whatsoever. That clearly wasn't the case here.

[YL]

Lewis Baston has been one of a few to point out that the order in which local council results have tended to be announced in recent years has tended to exaggerate media "this is actually a terrible night for Labour" narratives. The most egregious example of all maybe remains 2014, when one of the first authorities to declare - Rotherham - set the tone of coverage for the next 24 hours, despite the sweeping UKIP gains from Labour there being repeated *literally nowhere else in the country*.

John Curtice in particular was frankly ridiculous in declaring pretty much unequivocal woe for the red team when less than one fifth of results had actually declared. And he, along with others, maybe got suckered by the preceding "800 losses" bull***t from the Tory camp as well.

There's certainly something to this.  The Labour gain in Kirklees, which if it had been announced at 2am on Friday morning might have caused some people to change the narrative a little, was announced so late that the media had mostly lost interest.  This cuts both ways of course: the same is true of the Tory gain in Harrow, which also might have suggested that the London v. rest of the country divide some of them were going for was an oversimplification.  (And we still don't know the Croydon result, which thanks to local issues might also not be good for Labour.)

But I'm afraid I think some people are looking for a narrative and there's always something in local election results where you can find it.  This is particularly obvious with someone like D*n H*dg*s (does anyone actually take him seriously?) but there are others heading in the same direction.  There's also a reluctance to engage with the detail of what's going on locally; IMO a proper look at Sunderland with a bit of context from 2019 and 2021 should have suggested that actually the results there weren't that bad for Labour.  (They were certainly better than I was expecting!)

[Alcibiades]

https://www.camdennewjournal.co.uk/article/hampstead-get-out-of-bed-call-as-labour-win-with-paper-candidate

One of my favourite stories of this year’s elections: Labour put up a paper candidate in extremely wealthy long-time Tory stronghold Hampstead Town, they do not put any resources into the ward, he still wins, and he has to be woken up and taken to the count he was told he didn’t need to bother turning up to!

It is inaccurate to call Hampstead Town a 'Tory Stronghold'. It voted Labour last year for Mayor and Assembly and definitely went red in both the 2017 and 2019 General Elections. Yes, it was traditionally much more Tory pre-Brexit (though the Lib Dems often did well back in the day) and it does remain more Tory in council elections than it does nationally. A Labour gain there is perhaps a bit surprising as they were pretty far behind in 2018, but considering how this ward has voted in other elections recently it is hardly the earth-shatteringly shocking event this article makes it out to be.

Also, according to a Labour Activist on Vote UK Forum, Mr Cohen did campaign in the ward, albeit without much support from the local Labour Party. This wouldn't make him a 'paper candidate' either, as that is someone who is persuaded to stand for a party in a ward thought to be a complete no-hope area just for the purposes of to giving their voters a candidate to vote for, but who does no campaigning, canvassing or leafletting whatsoever. That clearly wasn't the case here.

You are of course correct on its increased red lean, but it nonetheless has not elected a Labour councillor for over 50 years (hence the “long-time”), and for whatever reason (evidently misguidedly) the local Labour party did not feel that it was a realistic target at this year’s local. And who doesn’t like a little bit of electoral romance?

But seriously, that the Tories are losing this ward does go to show just how far they have fallen in London and that they have essentially been wiped out in much of the professional upper middle class portion of the capital.

[Blair]

Croydon mayoral race very narrowly goes Tory- only about 200 votes in it which is even closer as it was the whole borough voting for the elected mayor.

Not a huge surprise considering the council not only went bust but did so in a way that impacted peoples lives in a very real sense.

Croydon, Harrow and Tower Hamlets are all examples of how Labour needs to actually be careful in how they run these councils- with the obvious caveat that the Government doesn’t make it easy at times.

[CumbrianLefty]

Margin of around 2k for the Tories on first preferences, which very likely wouldn't be enough to get them a majority on the council given Croydon's famously skewed electoral geography.

Feel a bit sad for Shawcross who almost pulled it off against the odds.

[YL]

West Yorkshire:



Colours are mostly obvious, but pink is the SDP, white in Bradford is Independent and the two shades of turquoise in Leeds are two different Local Parties for Local People.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Insert snarky remark about how 'the rEd wALL still loves bORiS' here.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/ipaulmadden/status/1522462890426613760?s=20&t=LW7I9sBoIA...

[Blair]

I’m still baffled how any Conservative is claiming this isn’t a bad result for them, especially when it’s not as if the Government has a lot of good ideas up it’s sleeve at the moment.

[Blair]

I regret to inform everyone that this is now the line.

I look forward to Tory MPs who live in London and will do forever, telling everyone over the next few days that it doesn’t actually matter and it’s not the ‘real country.’

The line is already forming that winning in London is irrelevant and that Labour aren’t doing well enough outside or at least should be better.

[CumbrianLefty]

I’m still baffled how any Conservative is claiming this isn’t a bad result for them, especially when it’s not as if the Government has a lot of good ideas up it’s sleeve at the moment.

I assume you have seen this morning's Express front page?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I regret to inform everyone that this is now the line.

I look forward to Tory MPs who live in London and will do forever, telling everyone over the next few days that it doesn’t actually matter and it’s not the ‘real country.’

The line is already forming that winning in London is irrelevant and that Labour aren’t doing well enough outside or at least should be better.

This is made especially funny by the fact that literally the only two objectively good Conservative performances in the country* were both in London!

_{*At least that I can find: Harrow and Croydon. I suppose, being generous, you could make a case for Oldham as a half, which would take us to two and a half.}

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I’m still baffled how any Conservative is claiming this isn’t a bad result for them, especially when it’s not as if the Government has a lot of good ideas up it’s sleeve at the moment.

I assume you have seen this morning's Express front page?

Guess the Tory Expectation management of playing up 800 seat losses and loosing Kensington & Chelsea worked.

[CumbrianLefty]

Rahman's protection racket party has also won a majority on Tower Hamlets council.

[JimJamUK]

Rahman's protection racket party has also won a majority on Tower Hamlets council.

I’m not usually one for arguing that it’s good that parties lose support with certain groups (the Conservatives current ‘of course the London elites hate us which just goes to show how great we are’ message won’t be going them any good), but if many Tower Hamlets local elections voters could only have been kept by Labour going full pandering then I’m not sure it reflects badly on Labour.