Alberta election 2023

[adma]

Tonight's debate will be crucial.

Notley is more personally popular (really, less disliked, neither of them are particularly popular)

At this point, the "not particularly popular-ness" of Notley has *everything* to do with the kind of party she leads versus the kind of province Alberta is.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Tonight's debate will be crucial.

Notley is more personally popular (really, less disliked, neither of them are particularly popular)

At this point, the "not particularly popular-ness" of Notley has *everything* to do with the kind of party she leads versus the kind of province Alberta is.

Yes, and "the kind of party she leads" might be her greatest weakness in this election. Although the AB NDP is running on a platform and message acceptable to centre-right suburbanites, who hold the balance of power in Alberta, many of the party's activists and some of the candidates are too left-wing for the median Albertan, to say nothing of the federal NDP which is quite unpopular with most Albertans. The NDP wants this election to be Notley vs Smith, the UCP wants it to be Conservative vs NDP

[adma]

Tonight's debate will be crucial.

Notley is more personally popular (really, less disliked, neither of them are particularly popular)

At this point, the "not particularly popular-ness" of Notley has *everything* to do with the kind of party she leads versus the kind of province Alberta is.

Yes, and "the kind of party she leads" might be her greatest weakness in this election. Although the AB NDP is running on a platform and message acceptable to centre-right suburbanites, who hold the balance of power in Alberta, many of the party's activists and some of the candidates are too left-wing for the median Albertan, to say nothing of the federal NDP which is quite unpopular with most Albertans. The NDP wants this election to be Notley vs Smith, the UCP wants it to be Conservative vs NDP

Though in Notley's case, her personal popularity to some extent transcends the innate "unpopularity" of her party.

Maybe a closer case in point is that of Bob Rae in Ontario in 1995, whose perceived gravitas continued to be an electoral saving-the-furniture salvage-job plus for an NDP party brand that had become toxic--but one cannot say that the residual good will t/w Rae was "party-transcending" in the way Notley's is, particularly as his government's woes tended to accrue to him regardless and indeed likely foretold his own ultimate jump to the Liberals.  (Plus, while the NDP brand didn't have a prior record of governance in Ontario, it wasn't necessarily as "alien" as in pre-Rachel Alberta.)

[Benjamin Frank]

Tonight's debate will be crucial.

Notley is more personally popular (really, less disliked, neither of them are particularly popular)

At this point, the "not particularly popular-ness" of Notley has *everything* to do with the kind of party she leads versus the kind of province Alberta is.

Yes, and "the kind of party she leads" might be her greatest weakness in this election. Although the AB NDP is running on a platform and message acceptable to centre-right suburbanites, who hold the balance of power in Alberta, many of the party's activists and some of the candidates are too left-wing for the median Albertan, to say nothing of the federal NDP which is quite unpopular with most Albertans. The NDP wants this election to be Notley vs Smith, the UCP wants it to be Conservative vs NDP

Though in Notley's case, her personal popularity to some extent transcends the innate "unpopularity" of her party.

Maybe a closer case in point is that of Bob Rae in Ontario in 1995, whose perceived gravitas continued to be an electoral saving-the-furniture salvage-job plus for an NDP party brand that had become toxic--but one cannot say that the residual good will t/w Rae was "party-transcending" in the way Notley's is, particularly as his government's woes tended to accrue to him regardless and indeed likely foretold his own ultimate jump to the Liberals.  (Plus, while the NDP brand didn't have a prior record of governance in Ontario, it wasn't necessarily as "alien" as in pre-Rachel Alberta.)

It did have something of a prior record of governance in Ontario as you may be referring to, with the CASA (or whatever it was called) between Rae and David Peterson from 1985-1987. The NDP themselves both credit their losses in the 1987 election to this agreement (the minority party in any 'coalition' suffering in the subsequent election) but also to their victory in 1990 (people saw the policies we promoted from 1985-1987) and saw we weren't wild eyed socialists.)

[Estrella]

Meanwhile in the Alberta Liberal Party:

https://twitter.com/ksituan/status/1659307887850844161

[Njall]

The debate overall seemed to be a wash - Notley supporters probably think that she won it and Smith supporters probably think that Smith won in. The general sentiment from the commentariat is that Smith handled herself better in terms of stage presence, but was also chillingly comfortable with spilling lies again and again (I'm only editorializing a bit).

Also, today's Mainstreet tracker has a 47-47 tie (likely a slight UCP lead before rounding).

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The debate overall seemed to be a wash - Notley supporters probably think that she won it and Smith supporters probably think that Smith won in. The general sentiment from the commentariat is that Smith handled herself better in terms of stage presence, but was also chillingly comfortable with spilling lies again and again (I'm only editorializing a bit).

Also, today's Mainstreet tracker has a 47-47 tie (likely a slight UCP lead before rounding).

If it was a wash though, I'd say that's good news for Smith. I watched a bit of it, it was actually enjoyable because there was actual substance, as opposed to the six-person screaming matches we've been subject to federally. I thought Smith did better, but I'm a conservative (though not Albertan, and if I were, I would be leaning UCP this time around but just barely - then again, "uncomfortable conservatives" like me are probably the key swing demo for the UCP to turn out, and to the extent the debate matters, I think Smith did as well as she needed to).

[Hatman 🍁]

It was a very enjoyable debate, both leaders did well, and it was refreshing to see two women face off against each other for a change. I agree that the "winner" depends on your political perspective, but in an attempt to put on a neutral hat, I think Smith was the winner, even though most of what she was saying was pure dishonest drivel. But, she was really good at communicating that drivel. Notley had a few falters, but also made some great quips. I also really liked her answer to which policies you like from the opposite party.

[Benjamin Frank]

I think Smith 'won' because I don't know that most people watching will be aware of her lies and she seemed to be a rational person.  I think that was really all she had to pull off.

How much of a difference that makes I don't know, because it seems that many Albertans views of her are already 'baked in.' However, to the degree that her seeming rational behavior might calm some of the 'reluctant conservatives' I think this debate performance could only have helped her.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I think Smith 'won' because I don't know that most people watching will be aware of her lies and she seemed to be a rational person.  I think that was really all she had to pull off.

How much of a difference that makes I don't know, because it seems that many Albertans views of her are already 'baked in.' However, to the degree that her seeming rational behavior might calm some of the 'reluctant conservatives' I think this debate performance could only have helped her.

Yeah I mean leaders' debates aren't really about selling policies anyway, they're more about selling the leader. And for UCP-accessible voters, that meant Smith mainly needed to not seem like a crazy person. People who don't want a UCP government aren't gonna change their minds in such a polarized atmosphere, not least because of a debate (which rarely cause people to switch their vote anyway).

Of course, "not seeming like a crazy person" wouldn't even be a problem had the UCP elected Travis Toews in the first place, but I digress.

[adma]

I suspect the biggest "sell" for Smith in the debate is that she permed her hair for the occasion.

[Hatman 🍁]

We're currently in field with an online poll. Since there's no client, I don't mind blabbing a bit about it (AMA!). Quite a good response over night, considering it's the beginning of a long weekend. Based on unweighted data, it looks like the UCP are up by ~5 points.

[brucejoel99]

We're currently in field with an online poll. Since there's no client, I don't mind blabbing a bit about it (AMA!). Quite a good response over night, considering it's the beginning of a long weekend. Based on unweighted data, it looks like the UCP are up by ~5 points.

Any divulgeable Calgary-specific numbers?

[Hatman 🍁]

We're currently in field with an online poll. Since there's no client, I don't mind blabbing a bit about it (AMA!). Quite a good response over night, considering it's the beginning of a long weekend. Based on unweighted data, it looks like the UCP are up by ~5 points.

Any divulgeable Calgary-specific numbers?

It appears the NDP has a slight lead in Calgary.

A big caveat here is I'm dealing with unweighted data, so I'm extrapolating based on who respondents indicated they voted for in the last federal and provincial elections.

[DL]

We're currently in field with an online poll. Since there's no client, I don't mind blabbing a bit about it (AMA!). Quite a good response over night, considering it's the beginning of a long weekend. Based on unweighted data, it looks like the UCP are up by ~5 points.

Any divulgeable Calgary-specific numbers?

It appears the NDP has a slight lead in Calgary.

A big caveat here is I'm dealing with unweighted data, so I'm extrapolating based on who respondents indicated they voted for in the last federal and provincial elections.

Do you weight by past vote?

[Hatman 🍁]

We're currently in field with an online poll. Since there's no client, I don't mind blabbing a bit about it (AMA!). Quite a good response over night, considering it's the beginning of a long weekend. Based on unweighted data, it looks like the UCP are up by ~5 points.

Any divulgeable Calgary-specific numbers?

It appears the NDP has a slight lead in Calgary.

A big caveat here is I'm dealing with unweighted data, so I'm extrapolating based on who respondents indicated they voted for in the last federal and provincial elections.

Do you weight by past vote?

No, but it will be used as a benchmark for accuracy purposes. People often forget who they voted for, and of course there are always people who didn't vote in the last election, so there's the question of what to do with them.

[Njall]

We're currently in field with an online poll. Since there's no client, I don't mind blabbing a bit about it (AMA!). Quite a good response over night, considering it's the beginning of a long weekend. Based on unweighted data, it looks like the UCP are up by ~5 points.

Any divulgeable Calgary-specific numbers?

It appears the NDP has a slight lead in Calgary.

A big caveat here is I'm dealing with unweighted data, so I'm extrapolating based on who respondents indicated they voted for in the last federal and provincial elections.

If you have UCP+5 provincewide and NDP slightly up in Calgary, would it be safe to assume that the UCP lead is mainly coming from wide margins in the areas outside of the two major cities? And do you have insights into any differences between the small cities (primarily Lethbridge/Red Deer) and the rest of the "Rest of Alberta"?

[Hatman 🍁]

Everything is very rough, and very "back of the envelope" right now, as I'm just looking at raw numbers, but to give you more perspective, it seems that the NDP's numbers in Edmonton are very similar to 2019, maybe up by a couple of points. So yeah, the UCP lead is coming from the rurals. The numbers in Lethbridge and Red Deer are bit too small to extrapolate (n=35 combined).

We did ask full postal code, so I will be able to have some fun with the numbers, in terms of geography, but there's always the caveats about subsamples. 

[DL]

At one time there was speculation that the NDP could win the popular vote and lose the election due to "wasted votes" in Edmonton. Now I think that the reverse would be more likely. I could see the UCP win the popular vote by as much as 3 or 4 points and have the NDP win due to lots of wasted UCP votes in rural Alberta. Similarly in Manitoba, a tied popular vote almost invariably means an NDP win because the PCs tend to waste so many votes in rural Manitoba.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

We're currently in field with an online poll. Since there's no client, I don't mind blabbing a bit about it (AMA!). Quite a good response over night, considering it's the beginning of a long weekend. Based on unweighted data, it looks like the UCP are up by ~5 points.

How does your poll impact thus far what you would guess in regards to who wins and loses?

[Hatman 🍁]

At one time there was speculation that the NDP could win the popular vote and lose the election due to "wasted votes" in Edmonton. Now I think that the reverse would be more likely. I could see the UCP win the popular vote by as much as 3 or 4 points and have the NDP win due to lots of wasted UCP votes in rural Alberta. Similarly in Manitoba, a tied popular vote almost invariably means an NDP win because the PCs tend to waste so many votes in rural Manitoba.

This makes sense. A lot of that Notleymania vote in Edmonton that the party won in 2015 is not coming back, meaning the city isn't going to be the NDP vote sink to counter the UCP vote sink in the rurals.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Does Marie Renaud look set to be the first MLA from the riding of St. Albert to win three consecutive terms since 1967?

[brucejoel99]

We're currently in field with an online poll. Since there's no client, I don't mind blabbing a bit about it (AMA!). Quite a good response over night, considering it's the beginning of a long weekend. Based on unweighted data, it looks like the UCP are up by ~5 points.

How does your poll impact thus far what you would guess in regards to who wins and loses?

[politicallefty]

Big polling dump today! All figures are among decided and leaning voters:

Ipsos (field dates May 10-13)

Provincewide:
UCP: 48%
NDP: 45%

Calgary:
UCP: 48%
NDP: 44%

Edmonton:
NDP: 61%
UCP: 33%

Rest of Alberta:
UCP: 64%
NDP: 30%


Angus Reid (field dates May 12-16)

Provincewide:
UCP: 51%
NDP: 43%

Calgary:
NDP: 49%
UCP: 46%

Edmonton:
NDP: 56%
UCP: 38%

Rest of Alberta:
UCP: 64%
NDP: 31%


Mainstreet (field dates May 13-16)

Provincewide:
UCP: 49%
NDP: 45%


Abacus (field dates May 15-17)

Provincewide:
NDP: 49%
UCP: 46%

Calgary:
UCP: 51%
NDP: 45%

Edmonton:
NDP: 66%
UCP: 27%

Rest of Alberta:
UCP: 56%
NDP: 39%

Apart from the Angus Reid poll, the others have fairly similar results provincewide. However, when you look at the regional results, you're going to get some very different results in terms of seats. Maybe I'm wrong but it looks like all of those polls likely result in a UCP Majority. The NDP needs to win Calgary. They do that in the Angus Reid poll, but the problem there is that they're not winning Edmonton by enough. The Abacus poll seems to be a very optimistic result for the NDP in the rest of Alberta (and Edmonton for that matter).

[adma]

At one time there was speculation that the NDP could win the popular vote and lose the election due to "wasted votes" in Edmonton. Now I think that the reverse would be more likely. I could see the UCP win the popular vote by as much as 3 or 4 points and have the NDP win due to lots of wasted UCP votes in rural Alberta. Similarly in Manitoba, a tied popular vote almost invariably means an NDP win because the PCs tend to waste so many votes in rural Manitoba.

This makes sense. A lot of that Notleymania vote in Edmonton that the party won in 2015 is not coming back, meaning the city isn't going to be the NDP vote sink to counter the UCP vote sink in the rurals.

Though it might depend on how one defines "Edmonton"--that is, if it's not a matter of the inner-Edmonton NDP ridings staying put, so much as it's the outer Sherwood Pk and Spruce Grove zones sticking to some extent to their "rest of Alberta" guns...