2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[ꙮ]

I used to be in the camp that thought Dobbs would be a moderate help to Democrats this fall. I thought we were still going to lose the House, but I thought the abortion issue might help around the margins. I thought it might keep us the Senate or some Governors. Sure, most people are voting on the economy and not abortion, but I figured it might move some at the margins.

After tonight? I think it's going to be much more important. We are seeing near-Presidential turnout for otherwise sleepy primaries in August 2022. The 'No' vote is outrunning Biden by what, 20 points? And this is just for removing the Constitutional protection for abortion. This isn't about some total abortion ban nightmare bill. This is pretty close to the bare-minimum pro-life proposal.

This overreaction might age terribly, but who cares: If this Midterm becomes an election about abortion I don't see how Democrats can lose.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I used to be in the camp that thought Dobbs would be a moderate help to Democrats this fall. I thought we were still going to lose the House, but I thought the abortion issue might help around the margins. I thought it might keep us the Senate or some Governors. Sure, most people are voting on the economy and not abortion, but I figured it might move some at the margins.

After tonight? I think it's going to be much more important. We are seeing near-Presidential turnout for otherwise sleepy primaries in August 2022. The 'No' vote is outrunning Biden by what, 20 points? And this is just for removing the Constitutional protection for abortion. This isn't about some total abortion ban nightmare bill. This is the bare-minimum pro-life proposal.

This might age terribly, but who cares: If this Midterm becomes an election about abortion, I don't see how Democrats can lose.

DNC: "But what if we tried?"

[Alben Barkley]

How long until Trump pivots back to pro-choice and supports court-packing against his own nominees now that he sees how unpopular pro-birthism is?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Catching up on calls:

Calling KS-GOV R for Schmidt!
Calling KS-GOV D for Kelly!
The KS Amendment has failed!
Calling KS SOS R for Schwab!
Calling KS-SEN R for Moran!
Calling KS-SEN D for Holland!
Calling KS-3 R for Adkins!


Uncalled:

KS-AG R
KS-Treasurer R
MO
all MI except MI-9 R

[Ferguson97]

https://sos.ks.gov/elections/22elec/2022-Primary-Election-Constitutional-Amendment-HCR-5003.pdf

Yah this was a misleading question

Cope.

[Skill and Chance]

Am i really more right wing on this issue than the average Kansas Republican. Like I really am stunned on this

If this turnout is even somewhat reflective of 2020's partisan makeup, then it's safe to say that you are to the right of at least 40% of Trump voters in Kansas.

Kind of an eerie similarity to when a random person gets 30% or 40% of the Dem primary vote in Appalachian states.  Makes me wonder if Kansas is about to trend left pretty hard in GEs?

[Senator Incitatus]

This overreaction might age terribly, but who cares: If this Midterm becomes an election about abortion I don't see how Democrats can lose.

This was already extremely unlikely, but after tonight it is nearly impossible.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://sos.ks.gov/elections/22elec/2022-Primary-Election-Constitutional-Amendment-HCR-5003.pdf

Yah this was a misleading question

Cope.

I cannot believe that I am to the right of nearly 40% of Trump voters in KS on this issue. That is just hard to believe.

[Sestak]

Because Kansans value both women
and children, the constitution of the
state of Kansas does not require
government funding of abortion
and does not create or secure a
right to abortion. To the extent
permitted by the constitution of the
United States, the people, through
their elected state representatives
and state senators, may pass laws
regarding abortion, including, but
not limited to, laws that account
for circumstances of pregnancy
resulting from rape or incest, or
circumstances of necessity to save
the life of the mother

https://sos.ks.gov/elections/22elec/2022-Primary-Election-Constitutional-Amendment-HCR-5003.pdf


Yah this was a misleading question

Your party literally handselected this language.

[Senator Incitatus]

I do think No is going to win at this point, but I think some of you are having extreme overreactions to the margin so far; I expect it will narrow significantly.

edit: At this point, No was up something like 67–33%.

[soundchaser]

I do think No is going to win at this point, but I think some of you are having extreme overreactions to the margin so far; I expect it will narrow significantly.

What makes you expect that? It’s certainly not the voting patterns thus far.

[OSR stands with Israel]

But yah my rating for MI Governor now is a strong Lean D as I think Whitmer has a 65% chance of being reelected

[Senator Incitatus]

I do think No is going to win at this point, but I think some of you are having extreme overreactions to the margin so far; I expect it will narrow significantly.

What makes you expect that? It’s certainly not the voting patterns thus far.

It literally narrowed by a point in the minute since I posted this. There's a lot of election-day vote still out.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

https://twitter.com/im_sorry_wtf/status/1554648295808671744?s=20&t=FKgGVD5yh...

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Meijer to 49.5%.

https://sos.ks.gov/elections/22elec/2022-Primary-Election-Constitutional-Amendment-HCR-5003.pdf

Yah this was a misleading question

Cope.

I cannot believe that I am to the right of nearly 40% of Trump voters in KS on this issue. That is just hard to believe.

You've shiften from a negative PC Social score to a solid mid-2 score.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling MI-GOV R for Dixon!
Calling MI-2 R for Moolenaar!
Calling MI-5 R for Walberg!
Calling MI-8 R for Junge!
Calling MI-10 R for James!
Calling MI-11 D for Stevens!
Calling MI-11 R for Ambrose!



Uncalled:

MI-3 R
MI-6 R
MI-10 D
MI-12 D
MI-12 R
MI-13 D
KS-AG R
KS-Treasurer R
MO

[MT Treasurer]

Obviously disappointed by the results of the referendum, but credit where credit is due — Democrats have actually made voters forget that we’re currently governed by Biden (his invisibility actually helps Democrats in this regard) and a Democratic trifecta and have masterfully created the perception that the actual incumbents are a conservative Supreme Court combined with Trump-endorsed radicals who are running for statewide/federal offices all over the country.

Nice job, and one of the very, very few strategies which might actually allow you to defy much of the traditional midterm penalty. Unless something changes, it looks like this will be a neutral/-ish election at best for Republicans — a (massive) Republican wave is basically out of the question at this point, and an embarrassing Republican underperformance (of the fundamentals) even in the event that they win the Senate/House seems likely. The House probably still flips by a very underwhelming margin, but the Senate is somewhat of an uphill battle for the GOP.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Meijer to 49.5%.

https://sos.ks.gov/elections/22elec/2022-Primary-Election-Constitutional-Amendment-HCR-5003.pdf

Yah this was a misleading question

Cope.

I cannot believe that I am to the right of nearly 40% of Trump voters in KS on this issue. That is just hard to believe.

You've shiften from a negative PC Social score to a solid mid-2 score.

a Mid-2 Score is Center-Right

[Mexican Wolf]

But yah my rating for MI Governor now is a strong Lean D as I think Whitmer has a 65% chance of being reelected

I agree, especially with Donna Brandenburg and Mellissa Carone running third party and potentially drawing some more Republican votes away from Tudor Dixon.

[Alben Barkley]

https://sos.ks.gov/elections/22elec/2022-Primary-Election-Constitutional-Amendment-HCR-5003.pdf

Yah this was a misleading question

Cope.

I cannot believe that I am to the right of nearly 40% of Trump voters in KS on this issue. That is just hard to believe.

And yet it is a fact.

Maybe you should re-examine your own position on this issue? Maybe you'll find that you are, in fact, wrong about it?

(Spoiler alert: You are!)

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Kournaki calls it for no

[Alben Barkley]

NBC CALLS IT!!!

[Yoda]

And the Kansas referendum has been called. "No" wins!

edit: damn you mofos be fast

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling MO-SEN R for Schmitt!
Calling MO-Auditor R for Fitzpatrick!
Calling MO-1 D for Bush!
Calling MO-2 D for Gunby!
Calling MO-2 R for Wagner!
Calling MO-3 D for Mann!
Calling MO-3 R for Luetkemeyer!
Calling MO-4 R for Alford!
Calling MO-5 D for Cleaver!
Calling MO-6 R for Graves!
Calling MO-7 D for Radaker-Sheafer!
Calling MO-8 R for Smith!

Uncalled:

MO-SEN D
MO-1 R
MO-5 R
MO-6 D
MO-7 R
MI-3 R
MI-6 R
MI-10 D
MI-12 D
MI-12 R
MI-13 D
KS-AG R
KS-Treasurer R

[Senator Incitatus]

Are we getting results from Arizona?