2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[2016]

Missoula just dumped some more ballots and I think only Lincoln is left outstanding. Zinke currently leading by just under 1200 votes.

Is it possible Olszewski can take the lead from Lincoln? All the surrounding counties voted for him.

Not sure. He won Sanders & Lake by only a couple of hundred Votes BUT won Flathead by almost 4000 over Zinke.

Going to be interesting. If Olszewski gets only half out of Lincoln what he got out of Flathead he takes the lead.

[lfromnj]

FYI Lincoln is in the same region but actually in a different media market.

[Minnesota Mike]

Starting to get some election day+1 ballot dumps in CA. Orange and San Bernardino counties both had small absentee ballot reports that were a more Democratic than their totals reported through last night. I know the conventional wisdom is Republicans will continue to improve post election day but I'm not so sure. Republicans really cleaned up with the in person voting but that is mostly accounted for, what's left is a ton of absentees and I think they will be closer to the early absentees and favor Democrats. We shall see.

[Cyrusman]

Is there anything we can take away from the primary numbers to gauge whether Newsom will underperform or over perform his 2018/2021 margins in the general this year? Anything in So Cal at all or not really?

[Ferguson97]

Gottheimer is lucky that Pallotta won, DeGregorio would've been a stronger general election candidate.

[TML]

Primary turnout numbers in MT are one giant yikes for Democrats:

MT-1 (Trump +7.1)* -

GOP - 79,198 - 60%
DEM - 53,614 - 40%

MT-2 (Trump +27.5) -

GOP - 94,994 - 72%
DEM - 36,695 - 28%

Statewide (MT-1 & MT-2 R/D vote totals added up) -

GOP - 174,192 - 66%
DEM - 90,309 - 34%

For comparison and some context, MT-AL (D) 2018 & MT-SEN (R) 2018:

GOP - 152,483 - 58%
DEM - 110,883 - 42%

(a 16-point shift to the GOP since 2018)

*This is without deep-red Lincoln County reporting, which will widen the GOP's lead when it comes in (although I expect it to end up very close to 60/40 when everything is tallied).

Based on these numbers, do you think that the lack of ticket-splitting in MT in 2020 was a fluke, or do you think that it will be the norm for this state in the foreseeable future?

[Greedo punched first]

What’s taking so long to count in-person votes in Orange County?

[2016]

MT-1
Lincoln County Primary Ballots to be "Hand Counted"
https://www.kpax.com/news/western-montana-news/heres-why-the-primary-ballots-in-lincoln-co-are-being-counted-by-hand

This explains the delay. What a SNAFU!

[Kamala's side hoe]

I'll note that in the primary Republicans will probably finish within single-digits in neighboring CA-38, which was Biden+30. This general area seems like one of the epicenters of right-wing backlash to Biden.

A combined R percentage in the low-mid 40s for the Whittier-to-Diamond Bar district is a pretty big swing from 2020-PRES, but is it inconsistent with SoCal suburbia generally being more R at the non-presidential level?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling CA-16 Slot 2 for Kumar

[2016]

Calling MT-1 for Zinke. Lincoln is now fully in and Zinke beat Olszewski by 400 Votes.

Zinke now has 1,608 Vote lead Overall!

edit: AP calls it for Zinke!

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Olszewski is an election hoax-promoting, climate change-denying religious extremist, so if he won he would've been a top target for Democrats in 2024/6/whenever their next good year is. Zinke will be able to hold this seat more easily.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling MT-1 R for Zinke!

Uncalled:

CA-2 Slot 2
CA-14 Slot 2
CA-22 Slot 2
CA-23 Slot 2
CA-30 Slot 2
CA-33 Slot 2
CA-37 Slot 2
CA-39 Slot 2
CA-46 Slot 2
CA-AG Slot 2
CA-Insurance Commissioner Slot 2
CA-Superintendent Slot 2
CA-Treasurer Slot 2
TX-15 D

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1535336686422437888

Valadao's lead over Mathys grows slightly with a new update from Kern County. He should make it to the general.

It's a tough district, but he's battle-tested and gas prices in California are the highest in the country.

[2016]

CA-40
CNN projects Congresswoman Young Kim (R) advances to General Election in November, faces Asif Mahmood.
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2022/results/california/primaries/us-house-district-40

Kim has an almost 11,000 Vote lead over Raths.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling CA-23 Slot 2 for Marshall!
Calling CA-Treasurer Slot 2 for Guerrero!

Uncalled:

CA-2 Slot 2
CA-14 Slot 2
CA-22 Slot 2
CA-30 Slot 2
CA-33 Slot 2
CA-37 Slot 2
CA-39 Slot 2
CA-46 Slot 2
CA-AG Slot 2
CA-Insurance Commissioner Slot 2
CA-Superintendent Slot 2
TX-15 D

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Am I the only one who still has get used to reading MT-1 and MT-2? 😄

[TML]

Am I the only one who still has get used to reading MT-1 and MT-2? 😄

How well would you be able to adapt to ME-AL and/or RI-AL at some point within the next generation?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Am I the only one who still has get used to reading MT-1 and MT-2? 😄

Now it looks normal again!

(Montana had two districts until the 1990 Census.)

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Am I the only one who still has get used to reading MT-1 and MT-2? 😄

How well would you be able to adapt to ME-AL and/or RI-AL at some point within the next generation?

Don't forget that DE-01 and DE-02 might happen at some point in the next few decades

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Am I the only one who still has get used to reading MT-1 and MT-2? 😄

How well would you be able to adapt to ME-AL and/or RI-AL at some point within the next generation?

Don't forget that DE-01 and DE-02 might happen at some point in the next few decades

DE-00 is the oldest congressional district in america, if we loose it america will collapse

don’t ask me how

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

How well would you be able to adapt to ME-AL and/or RI-AL at some point within the next generation?

As to Maine: It would probably take me a whole decade to stand that loss.
As to Rhode Island it's exactly the other way round; I can't even understand why this tiny blob of land mass is still split into two districts.

As to Montana: It was about time that that state gained a second representative. since it used to be the most underrepresented state in the US the last decade. My brain merely has to cope with the new situation; someone wrote about MT-1 and MT-2 and I was thinking about what he could mean. 😄

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Don't forget that DE-01 and DE-02 might happen at some point in the next few decades

Last time Delaware had 4 EV, Biden voted for Clinton.

[brucejoel99]

Don't forget that DE-01 and DE-02 might happen at some point in the next few decades

Last time Delaware had 4 EV, Biden voted for Clinton.

Delaware has never had 4 EVs.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Don't forget that DE-01 and DE-02 might happen at some point in the next few decades

Last time Delaware had 4 EV, Biden voted for Clinton.

Delaware has never had 4 EVs.

It did. For one single decade.
I wouldn't mind telling you and GALeftist when, but then my sophisticated joke would lose its effect.