2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

So I guess this is as good a time as any to say that my PA-ticket was Oz/Mastriano/DelRosso (etc. etc.).    

If you don’t mind me asking, I was just curious, why did you vote for them?

Probably sarcasm

Are you joking?

Not sarcasm, not joking -- that was my ballot.  

Really?

Hey, I wasn't any happier about it than you are.  I just figured that it was the easiest way for Josh Shapiro to win.  I like him -- I think he has a lot of integrity.  

DelRosso was just...because.  And I had my reasons for voting Oz.  

Do you think Shapiro will win? And if so, do you think he wins by a big enough margin to pull Fetterman across the line?

I'll put it this way: I think Shapiro has the best chance of any statewide candidate in PA this cycle.  I'm totally unsure about the Senate. 

[Politician]

Let's talk Democrats a little bit here too:

Rep. Kurt Schrader was one of the 5 Members who initially opposed BBB and then voted for it after the BIF was passed.
Rep. Stephanie Murphy did not bother to even run for Re-Election. It remains to be seen what happens to Rep. Josh Gottheimer in NJ.

If Jamie McLeod-Skinner (OR-5) and Summer Lee (PA-12) win that bodes very bad News for Henry Cuellar in TX on Tuesday.

So Democrats purging out their moderates as well.

Moderate Democrats: Actively worked to derail their party’s signature legislative effort on behalf of Republican donors.
Moderate Republicans: Doesn’t explicitly say they will end democracy, wears pants in public

There’s a bit of a difference here.

Lol, most "moderate" Democrats vote with Biden >80% of the time.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Let's talk Democrats a little bit here too:

Rep. Kurt Schrader was one of the 5 Members who initially opposed BBB and then voted for it after the BIF was passed.
Rep. Stephanie Murphy did not bother to even run for Re-Election. It remains to be seen what happens to Rep. Josh Gottheimer in NJ.

If Jamie McLeod-Skinner (OR-5) and Summer Lee (PA-12) win that bodes very bad News for Henry Cuellar in TX on Tuesday.

So Democrats purging out their moderates as well.

Moderate Democrats: Actively worked to derail their party’s signature legislative effort on behalf of Republican donors.
Moderate Republicans: Doesn’t explicitly say they will end democracy, wears pants in public

There’s a bit of a difference here.

Lol, most "moderate" Democrats vote with Biden >80% of the time.

Also, most of the people successfully primaried by the left in the last few years have not been moderates. Schraeder, if he goes down, is the exception.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Is there any reason why Oregon is taking so long to count? Feel like there haven’t been any ballots counted for OR-5 in 2 days

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Is there any reason why Oregon is taking so long to count? Feel like there haven’t been any ballots counted for OR-5 in 2 days

Apparently Clackamas has to copy all the votes onto new ballots manually.

[Greedo punched first]

Is there some kind of strong anti-establishment presence in Oregon?

[2016]

Is there any reason why Oregon is taking so long to count? Feel like there haven’t been any ballots counted for OR-5 in 2 days

Apparently Clackamas has to copy all the votes onto new ballots manually.

McLeod-Skinner has expanded her lead again to 9.670 Votes in the latest batch of Results.

[2016]

Is there some kind of strong anti-establishment presence in Oregon?

More like Anti-Incumbent. Polls show almost 3/4 Voters want to fire both Houses of Congress.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Is there some kind of strong anti-establishment presence in Oregon?

Schrader just spend the past term very visibly fighting a Democratic administration on major policy goals and capped it off by publicly killing the prescription drug reform that has been a party campaign plank since 2006.

It doesn't take a strong anti-establishment streak to explain him losing a Democratic primary.


The open seat, OR-6, was won by a four term state senator and former Harry Reid staffer.

Everything else was incumbents.

[NOVA Green]

Is there any reason why Oregon is taking so long to count? Feel like there haven’t been any ballots counted for OR-5 in 2 days

Apparently Clackamas has to copy all the votes onto new ballots manually.

McLeod-Skinner has expanded her lead again to 9.670 Votes in the latest batch of Results.

So aside from Clackamas...

The last batch from Multnomah was extremely more favorable to McLeod-Skinner, which as I had posited on election night that in general the later the ballots cast the more favorable, which might potentially be a poor omen for Schrader's overall chances on top of having to essentially win big in Clackamas to overtake since unless outstanding ballots are being segregated by precinct in Linn and Marion (Which I very much doubt), depending upon how many outstanding ballots are out there it is not unfeasible that Schrader's total raw vote margin in both could continue to shrink with an outside chance that Linn county could even flip if there are really 3k outstanding DEM ballots there.

Not sure how many more outstanding ballots there are from Multnomah, but regardless this will just add to her margins and not subtract from them.


Multnomah County went from 7,359 to 9,128 Total DEM PRIM votes counted.

5/18/22 7:14 AM PST:

McLeod-Skinner:  4,272    (58.1%)         +16.4%       +1,200 Votes
Schrader:            3,072    (41.7%)

5/19/22 6:00 AM PST:

McLeod-Skinner:  5,419    (59.4%)         +19.0%        +1,729 Votes
Schrader:            3,690    (40.4%)

Change:

McLeod-Skinner:   + 1,147   (64.8%)     +29.9%          + 529 Votes
Schrader:             +    618   (34.9%)

[JM1295]

The funny thing about Schrader is how easily he beat his primary challenger in 2020 and then proceeded to enrage and piss off the base after seeing what happened to incumbents like Lipisnki and Cuellar surviving by a narrow margin in 2020. From comparing Trump's second impeachment to a lynching to obstructing on BBB to essentially killing prescription drug reform (a cornerstone of every single Democratic campaign).

[2016]

Only 8.700 VBM Republican Ballots left to count in PA per SoS Office.

[NOVA Green]

So just for fun thought I would throw together a quick map of the precinct results thus far from Multnomah County so that maybe people could chime in on the potential implications in neighboring precincts in Clackamas County while we are waiting.   

Should be pretty self explanatory the two numbers are the McLeod-Skinner vs Schrader % and the 2nd number if Maroon are the McLeod Skinner RAW VOTE margins or if in Black the Schrader RAW VOTE margins.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Let's talk Democrats a little bit here too:

Rep. Kurt Schrader was one of the 5 Members who initially opposed BBB and then voted for it after the BIF was passed.
Rep. Stephanie Murphy did not bother to even run for Re-Election. It remains to be seen what happens to Rep. Josh Gottheimer in NJ.

If Jamie McLeod-Skinner (OR-5) and Summer Lee (PA-12) win that bodes very bad News for Henry Cuellar in TX on Tuesday.

So Democrats purging out their moderates as well.

That’s an insult to moderates

[OSR stands with Israel]

I still have PA Senate at either seat number 52 or 53 for the GOP as this what I think the GOP's chance of winning these seats are:

WI: 95%
NC: 90%
NV: 75%
AZ: 70%
GA: 55%
PA: 55%
NH: 30%
CO: 20%
WA: 5%

[NOVA Green]

Looks like part of delays in Marion County election results are possibly also impacting election counting.

Have avoided commenting for the most part on the OR-PUB-SEN and OR-PUB-GOV races thus far, but suspect Marion County issues might also be part of the reason we aren't seeing calls yet in both races.

Marion County Clerk Bill Burgess said county officials missed a step in posting a file to the Secretary of State's website. While county election results were posted on its own website soon after 8 p.m., those results were not included as part of the larger state tallies until later Tuesday night.

Burgess apologized Wednesday morning to voters for the "inconvenience" and "aggravation" the issue caused. He said he doesn't think it is going to be a problem in the future.

More people appear to have cast ballots this year than the most recent comparable election. In 2018, roughly 60,000 Marion County voters participated in that year's primary, Burgess said.

https://www.statesmanjournal.com/story/news/politics/2022/05/18/2022-primary-election-results-marion-clackamas-county/65356416007/

[NOVA Green]

Neglected to post this earlier, but however for context about those wondering about OR-22 PRIM election results, this will likely be a major factor in many higher profile DEM/PUB PRIM elections considering the sheer total numbers of RVs from both parties in on the most populated as well as a key statewide wide "swing county" for GOV and SEN elections:

The massive delay in tabulating election results for Oregon’s third-largest county could continue until mid-June, the Clackamas County clerk said Wednesday.

Clerk Sherry Hall defended herself from accusations that she failed to plan to handle a huge influx of ballots that must be processed by hand due to defective barcodes, even though she learned about the printing flaw two weeks before Election Day. But the veteran election official acknowledged she and her staff are struggling and said that voters — and candidates — may not see final tallies until the June 13 deadline to certify the election.

https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2022/05/clackamas-county-ballot-counting-could-stretch-to-mid-june-unapologetic-county-elections-head-says.html

[Xing]

Looks like we just got a small batch of votes from Clackamas, and it looks like Schrader only gained a handful of votes, and his margin overall in the county went down to 55.8-44.2.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1527671585519325185?t=Uljvwxbfbu9gIFd8MlRG...

[wbrocks67]

Yeah looks like this could be the books for McCormick. He needed to outright win the Allegheny ones to have any type of chance.

[2016]

The New Numbers from Allegheny County were also favourable to Summer Lee in her Primary over State Senator Steve Irwin
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2022/results/pennsylvania/democratic-primaries/us-house-district-12

Lee is now leading Irwin by a more comfortable 682-Vote Margin!

[Gracile]

Wasserman has seen enough in PA-12, calls it for Lee:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1527677794607587335

[Greedo punched first]

Would Schrader likely win had he been more supportive of Biden's policies?

[TML]

Would Schrader likely win had he been more supportive of Biden's policies?

Maybe, but remember that his votes against key elements of Biden's policy agenda were the direct result of special interest donations he raked in during his tenure in Congress (e.g. he voted against prescription drug price reform after collecting hundreds of thousands of dollars from pharmaceutical industry donors).

[wbrocks67]

Great for Lee and McLeod-Skinner.