2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[South Dakota Democrat]

So I guess this is as good a time as any to say that my PA-ticket was Oz/Mastriano/DelRosso (etc. etc.).    

If you don’t mind me asking, I was just curious, why did you vote for them?

Probably sarcasm

Are you joking?

Not sarcasm, not joking -- that was my ballot.  

Really?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

So I guess this is as good a time as any to say that my PA-ticket was Oz/Mastriano/DelRosso (etc. etc.).    

If you don’t mind me asking, I was just curious, why did you vote for them?

Probably sarcasm

Are you joking?

Not sarcasm, not joking -- that was my ballot.  

Really?

I mean, someone had to vote for him. He did win the primary after all

[Xing]

I’m guessing Schrader has to be done, right? I’m sure he’ll close some of the gap when Clackamas reports, but I don’t see him catching up unless he wins it by way more than 15%…

[NOVA Green]

OR-Cd-05:

Marion County added another small batch of votes earlier today and percentages remained effectively unchanged.

Schrader:           +1,039   (56.0)
Mcleod-Skinner:  +  815    (44.0)

TOTAL:  1,854

Clackamas County also finally released their first reports today (a Couple small batchs) early today.

Both of these had Schrader at 57% versus Mcleod-Skinner's 43%.

Still too early to say what's going on there since it is a relatively small sample and we don't really know where the votes are coming from.

Hopefully Clackamas County will speed up processing, despite the initial glitches now that the Secretary of State is turning up the heat on the local election officials.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

OR-Cd-05:

Marion County added another small batch of votes earlier today and percentages remained effectively unchanged.

Schrader:           +1,039   (56.0)
Mcleod-Skinner:  +  815    (44.0)

TOTAL:  1,854

Clackamas County also finally released their first reports today (a Couple small batchs) early today.

Both of these had Schrader at 57% versus Mcleod-Skinner's 43%.

Still too early to say what's going on there since it is a relatively small sample and we don't really know where the votes are coming from.

Hopefully Clackamas County will speed up processing, despite the initial glitches now that the Secretary of State is turning up the heat on the local election officials.

So Clackamas only dropped 1,200 votes so I’m not sure percentages mean anything, but NYT is now showing McLeod-Skinner up 9,500 with about 38,000 left.
57% won’t do it for Schrader

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Clackamas dropped another 1,000 while I was typing.
Still 57-43

[Nyvin]

Considering Clackamas has reported around 5800 votes in OR-5 for the GOP primary and only about 2600 for the Dem primary I have to assume most of the reported areas are more in the southeast than the northwest.   

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Considering Clackamas has reported around 5800 votes in OR-5 for the GOP primary and only about 2600 for the Dem primary I have to assume most of the reported areas are more in the southeast than the northwest.   

I don’t know Oregon, but based on the pattern seen in the rest of the district, with JMS crushing Kurt in Portland and Bend and Kurt with small but comfortable leads in the smaller counties, that has to be good news right?

[NOVA Green]

Considering Clackamas has reported around 5800 votes in OR-5 for the GOP primary and only about 2600 for the Dem primary I have to assume most of the reported areas are more in the southeast than the northwest.   

Wouldn't be so sure about the locations of the ballots...

For example Clackamas County has only 3,581 total DEM GOV votes reported versus 6,249 PUB GOV reported votes.

Currently Clackamas County currently has only 65,786 Total Ballots Returned (As of 5/18/22 1703 PM Update) with only a 21.5% return rate, while meanwhile the OR-SoS website is showing an average of 33.2% returned total ballots.

Total returned DEM ballots in ClackCo are 31.3k / 103.0k eligible ballots vs 23.5k PUB total returned ballots / 82.9k eligible.

Still, you do raise a good point in that overall it does appear that the ballot issues might be disproportionately hitting NW ClackCo, despite the fact that it is not just heavily DEM precincts getting hit on this...

As an Oregonian Live subscriber can share elements of their subscriber exclusive:

Clackamas County elections officials were woefully unprepared to handle a known ballot counting challenge and likely won’t finish counting votes until early next week at best, county commissioners learned Wednesday.

That could leave key races, including Congressman Kurt Schrader’s difficult reelection bid for the 5th District, hanging. Two county commission seats, the presidency of regional government Metro, several seats in the Legislature and other outcomes hinge on near-final Clackamas results.

County Clerk Sherry Hall didn’t assign anywhere near enough workers to handle the routine number of ballots that voters turned in during the final week of the election cycle, Hall and other county officials disclosed Wednesday. The majority of those ballots were marred by a printing error, first discovered at least two weeks ago, that requires affected ballots to be hand-duplicated onto new ballots that then can be read by vote tallying machines. Even though her office was aware that it would be tedious to duplicate the defective ballots, Hall said that workers did not process ballots over the weekend because most did not want to work.

Another article from yesterday on OregonLive:

Oregon Secretary of State Shemia Fagan admonished Clackamas County election officials Tuesday night for failing to provide timely results from the May primary, calling the delays “unacceptable.”

Even before Tuesday’s worst-in-state performance, a substantial portion of results from Clackamas County were expected to be delayed due to a printing error affecting two-thirds of ballots that required election workers to hand-duplicate votes onto new ballots. The majority of the defective ballots were Democratic ones.

In theory we might not know the results until this coming Monday unless Clackamas County picks up their game, where despite diverting extra county resources into manually transferring ballots, plus the reluctance of election workers to do weekend OT, might end up being a "long haul".

Early on on the 5/17/22 ED, I had warned Atlas to be prepared for election results to take longer to be counted because of changes that allow same day postmarked mail ballots to be counted, which in theory could impact extremely close election results being confirmed.

Now it looks like we have an entire other clusterf**k, which was not something that most independent observers were anticipating....

But yeah... you might well be right on the tea leaves, but it is still extremely frustrating nonetheless.

[lfromnj]

https://www.young4ky.com/

By the way did anyone see the Dem primary winner in Kentucky 6th ?
 
​

Such a #populist

So true bestie He won all the protest vote rurals. Funnily enough I think the light gerrymander in Kentucky made the difference.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

https://www.young4ky.com/

By the way did anyone see the Dem primary winner in Kentucky 6th ?

Just embarrassing, not that it will matter in the slightest.

[lfromnj]

https://www.young4ky.com/

By the way did anyone see the Dem primary winner in Kentucky 6th ?

Just embarrassing, not that it will matter in the slightest.

Yeah just funny overall. Technically the district could still be competitive in a D wave year FWIW.

[Joseph Cao]

I don’t know where the idea that conservative Democrats must be electoral titans comes from anyway.
Schrader has historically done either marginally better or marginally worse than national and statewide Dems in his district. There is no evidence that being a giant headache for his colleagues has actually netted him any votes.

I don't necessarily disagree with you in this case, but to play DCCC's advocate for a moment the question for them isn't whether the giant headache in question creates an overperformance for him but whether replacement with a more strident progressive would result in an underperformance. If Schrader made it through to the general we'd have a chance to see if, conversely, this has lost him any votes, since as you say there's no evidence in the other direction. But he hasn't, so moot point.

The DCCC is an incumbent protection outfit first and foremost, of course they'd stick with him all else being equal, or in other words if Schrader isn't any more of an electoral liability than he previously was. You don't have to argue he's somehow the epitome of electability to get to that position.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/davecatanese/status/1527341714427351041

Assuming this is right by Mr Catanese then Oz is going to win this!

[2016]

Let's talk Democrats a little bit here too:

Rep. Kurt Schrader was one of the 5 Members who initially opposed BBB and then voted for it after the BIF was passed.
Rep. Stephanie Murphy did not bother to even run for Re-Election. It remains to be seen what happens to Rep. Josh Gottheimer in NJ.

If Jamie McLeod-Skinner (OR-5) and Summer Lee (PA-12) win that bodes very bad News for Henry Cuellar in TX on Tuesday.

So Democrats purging out their moderates as well.

[Senator Incitatus]

https://www.young4ky.com/

By the way did anyone see the Dem primary winner in Kentucky 6th ?

Just embarrassing, not that it will matter in the slightest.

Better than McGrath.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Let's talk Democrats a little bit here too:

Rep. Kurt Schrader was one of the 5 Members who initially opposed BBB and then voted for it after the BIF was passed.
Rep. Stephanie Murphy did not bother to even run for Re-Election. It remains to be seen what happens to Rep. Josh Gottheimer in NJ.

If Jamie McLeod-Skinner (OR-5) and Summer Lee (PA-12) win that bodes very bad News for Henry Cuellar in TX on Tuesday.

So Democrats purging out their moderates as well.

Moderate Democrats: Actively worked to derail their party’s signature legislative effort on behalf of Republican donors.
Moderate Republicans: Doesn’t explicitly say they will end democracy, wears pants in public

There’s a bit of a difference here.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Let's talk Democrats a little bit here too:

Rep. Kurt Schrader was one of the 5 Members who initially opposed BBB and then voted for it after the BIF was passed.
Rep. Stephanie Murphy did not bother to even run for Re-Election. It remains to be seen what happens to Rep. Josh Gottheimer in NJ.

If Jamie McLeod-Skinner (OR-5) and Summer Lee (PA-12) win that bodes very bad News for Henry Cuellar in TX on Tuesday.

So Democrats purging out their moderates as well.

They didn't even field a challenge against Gottheimer.

Realistically the only ones we can still take out are Cuellar and Bordeaux. Costa has a primary challenger but he seems more interested in #Resistance grifting and tweeting than running a campaign. Maybe Case can get a better challenger.

[2016]

Let's talk Democrats a little bit here too:

Rep. Kurt Schrader was one of the 5 Members who initially opposed BBB and then voted for it after the BIF was passed.
Rep. Stephanie Murphy did not bother to even run for Re-Election. It remains to be seen what happens to Rep. Josh Gottheimer in NJ.

If Jamie McLeod-Skinner (OR-5) and Summer Lee (PA-12) win that bodes very bad News for Henry Cuellar in TX on Tuesday.

So Democrats purging out their moderates as well.

Moderate Democrats: Actively worked to derail their party’s signature legislative effort on behalf of Republican donors.
Moderate Republicans: Doesn’t explicitly say they will end democracy, wears pants in public

There’s a bit of a difference here.

Really? The matter of fact is that the Country isn't as progressive as Clown Car Joe, Kamala, Nancy and Chuck think it is.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Let's talk Democrats a little bit here too:

Rep. Kurt Schrader was one of the 5 Members who initially opposed BBB and then voted for it after the BIF was passed.
Rep. Stephanie Murphy did not bother to even run for Re-Election. It remains to be seen what happens to Rep. Josh Gottheimer in NJ.

If Jamie McLeod-Skinner (OR-5) and Summer Lee (PA-12) win that bodes very bad News for Henry Cuellar in TX on Tuesday.

So Democrats purging out their moderates as well.

They didn't even field a challenge against Gottheimer.

Realistically the only ones we can still take out are Cuellar and Bordeaux. Costa has a primary challenger but he seems more interested in #Resistance grifting and tweeting than running a campaign. Maybe Case can get a better challenger.

The local Hawaii Democrats and media seem to be all in to protect Case.
Which makes no damn sense. The only way Democrats lose his district would be a catastrophic scandal and even if you have no ideological priorities Ed Case makes running your caucus harder just by general jackassery.

[2016]

Then you have these insane bad Republicans like Alyssa Farah, David Urban, Chris Wallace sitting on CNN.

If DeSantis wins in 2024 he needs to purge out these Clowns.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

So I guess this is as good a time as any to say that my PA-ticket was Oz/Mastriano/DelRosso (etc. etc.).    

If you don’t mind me asking, I was just curious, why did you vote for them?

Probably sarcasm

Are you joking?

Not sarcasm, not joking -- that was my ballot.  

Really?

Hey, I wasn't any happier about it than you are.  I just figured that it was the easiest way for Josh Shapiro to win.  I like him -- I think he has a lot of integrity.  

DelRosso was just...because.  And I had my reasons for voting Oz.  

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1527400491520491522?t=XZTj2oZodmXoT2vH...


If this figure is correct, McCormick is done.

[OSR stands with Israel]

So I guess this is as good a time as any to say that my PA-ticket was Oz/Mastriano/DelRosso (etc. etc.).    

If you don’t mind me asking, I was just curious, why did you vote for them?

Probably sarcasm

Are you joking?

Not sarcasm, not joking -- that was my ballot.  

Really?

Hey, I wasn't any happier about it than you are.  I just figured that it was the easiest way for Josh Shapiro to win.  I like him -- I think he has a lot of integrity.  

DelRosso was just...because.  And I had my reasons for voting Oz.  

That’s an extremely risky way of voting and something I absolutely would never do . I would never want a crazy person to be nominated from either party in this current polarized day and age

[South Dakota Democrat]

So I guess this is as good a time as any to say that my PA-ticket was Oz/Mastriano/DelRosso (etc. etc.).    

If you don’t mind me asking, I was just curious, why did you vote for them?

Probably sarcasm

Are you joking?

Not sarcasm, not joking -- that was my ballot.  

Really?

Hey, I wasn't any happier about it than you are.  I just figured that it was the easiest way for Josh Shapiro to win.  I like him -- I think he has a lot of integrity.  

DelRosso was just...because.  And I had my reasons for voting Oz.  

Do you think Shapiro will win? And if so, do you think he wins by a big enough margin to pull Fetterman across the line?