2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.kgw.com/article/news/politics/elections/primary-election-2022-results-oregon-portland/283-3d3554f8-23b7-4dd9-99b6-11bee5bfe48e

OR-5 is potentially winnable


Republicans are only 1k behind in the total votes in that district than the Democrats

I mean y'all have won it for the past 14 years

not this is Kurt's district

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/politics-government/election/article261500077.html

U.S. Rep. Mike Simpson has secured the Republican nomination for his House seat...With 20 of Idaho’s 44 counties reporting at least partial returns, Simpson led with about 58% of the vote, while Bryan Smith, an Idaho Falls attorney, received 30%. The other three challengers, Flint L. Christensen, Daniel A.L. Levy and Chris Porter, split the remaining 12%.

[politicallefty]

https://www.kgw.com/article/news/politics/elections/primary-election-2022-results-oregon-portland/283-3d3554f8-23b7-4dd9-99b6-11bee5bfe48e

OR-5 is potentially winnable


Republicans are only 1k behind in the total votes in that district than the Democrats

NYT is estimating another ~42k for the Democratic side and another ~32k for the Republican side. If those are estimates are correct, it'd be about D+8 overall, only very slightly worse than the Biden+8.85% result. Of course, as we all know, trying to forecast the general election with primary turnout should be taken with a generous dose of NaCl.

[NOVA Green]

https://www.kgw.com/article/news/politics/elections/primary-election-2022-results-oregon-portland/283-3d3554f8-23b7-4dd9-99b6-11bee5bfe48e

OR-5 is potentially winnable


Republicans are only 1k behind in the total votes in that district than the Democrats

NYT is estimating another ~42k for the Democratic side and another ~32k for the Republican side. If those are estimates are correct, it'd be about D+8 overall, only very slightly worse than the Biden+8.85% result. Of course, as we all know, trying to forecast the general election with primary turnout should be taken with a generous dose of NaCl.

Still closed PRIM State so can't look at DEM & PUB TV PRIMs to infer.

Honestly if anything, where NPAs / NPV RV's tend to lean a bit DEM vs PUB might even be a bit worse than that.

Still, Linn County DINO RVs can sometimes bag 15-20% of DEM PRIM votes, perhaps even a larger chunk than even in Clatsop County.

Ancestral DEM RVs still float around in places, where after all Jimmy Carter did quite well in '76 and Dukakis overperformed national % numbers in the GE in '88.

[Sir Mohamed]

Cathorn is out? Glorious news!

[ElectionsGuy]

https://www.kgw.com/article/news/politics/elections/primary-election-2022-results-oregon-portland/283-3d3554f8-23b7-4dd9-99b6-11bee5bfe48e

OR-5 is potentially winnable


Republicans are only 1k behind in the total votes in that district than the Democrats

Not potentially. It is. Dare I say, R's are favored to pick it up if Schrader loses.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

https://www.kgw.com/article/news/politics/elections/primary-election-2022-results-oregon-portland/283-3d3554f8-23b7-4dd9-99b6-11bee5bfe48e

OR-5 is potentially winnable


Republicans are only 1k behind in the total votes in that district than the Democrats

I mean y'all have won it for the past 14 years

not this is Kurt's district

And Kurt is a Republican!

[beesley]

https://www.kgw.com/article/news/politics/elections/primary-election-2022-results-oregon-portland/283-3d3554f8-23b7-4dd9-99b6-11bee5bfe48e

OR-5 is potentially winnable


Republicans are only 1k behind in the total votes in that district than the Democrats

Not potentially. It is. Dare I say, R's are favored to pick it up if Schrader loses.

To my knowledge Schrader has generally ran behind the Dem ticket, so whilst other things do suggest that the Rs can win here I'm not sure that that is one of them.

[ElectionsGuy]

https://www.kgw.com/article/news/politics/elections/primary-election-2022-results-oregon-portland/283-3d3554f8-23b7-4dd9-99b6-11bee5bfe48e

OR-5 is potentially winnable


Republicans are only 1k behind in the total votes in that district than the Democrats

Not potentially. It is. Dare I say, R's are favored to pick it up if Schrader loses.

To my knowledge Schrader has generally ran behind the Dem ticket, so whilst other things do suggest that the Rs can win here I'm not sure that that is one of them.

I already viewed it as a toss-up, this just moves the needle a tiny bit to R's. It's also something that a Dem is getting potentially primaried out for not being progressive enough. That's what R's do, I was told. R's are becoming a far-right fascist extremist party while Dems are becoming centrist.

https://twitter.com/FreeBeacon/status/1526581362983051266

[Tekken_Guy]

https://www.kgw.com/article/news/politics/elections/primary-election-2022-results-oregon-portland/283-3d3554f8-23b7-4dd9-99b6-11bee5bfe48e

OR-5 is potentially winnable


Republicans are only 1k behind in the total votes in that district than the Democrats

Not potentially. It is. Dare I say, R's are favored to pick it up if Schrader loses.

It’s Biden+9, a pretty steep hill to climb.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This proves polling is worthless just like polls are showing Biden low Approvals are completely worthless D's can win in 22 based on GCB Barnette did so poorly and so did Keynetta

[ElectionsGuy]

https://www.kgw.com/article/news/politics/elections/primary-election-2022-results-oregon-portland/283-3d3554f8-23b7-4dd9-99b6-11bee5bfe48e

OR-5 is potentially winnable


Republicans are only 1k behind in the total votes in that district than the Democrats

Not potentially. It is. Dare I say, R's are favored to pick it up if Schrader loses.

It’s Biden+9, a pretty steep hill to climb.

Biden +9 is literally less than a 5-point Republican win on the generic ballot nationally on average. Not steep at all actually.

Republicans on this forum greatly underestimate their own party. Almost like they've internalized the massive Dem bias here and elsewhere.

[YE]

https://www.kgw.com/article/news/politics/elections/primary-election-2022-results-oregon-portland/283-3d3554f8-23b7-4dd9-99b6-11bee5bfe48e

OR-5 is potentially winnable


Republicans are only 1k behind in the total votes in that district than the Democrats

Not potentially. It is. Dare I say, R's are favored to pick it up if Schrader loses.

It’s Biden+9, a pretty steep hill to climb.

Biden +9 is literally less than a 5-point Republican win on the generic ballot nationally on average. Not steep at all actually.

Republicans on this forum greatly underestimate their own party. Almost like they've internalized the massive Dem bias here and elsewhere.

Do you mean Democratic win? Since when is the GCB R+14?

[Tekken_Guy]

Does Oz have it in the bag at this point, or can McCormick come back?

[ElectionsGuy]

https://www.kgw.com/article/news/politics/elections/primary-election-2022-results-oregon-portland/283-3d3554f8-23b7-4dd9-99b6-11bee5bfe48e

OR-5 is potentially winnable


Republicans are only 1k behind in the total votes in that district than the Democrats

Not potentially. It is. Dare I say, R's are favored to pick it up if Schrader loses.

It’s Biden+9, a pretty steep hill to climb.

Biden +9 is literally less than a 5-point Republican win on the generic ballot nationally on average. Not steep at all actually.

Republicans on this forum greatly underestimate their own party. Almost like they've internalized the massive Dem bias here and elsewhere.

Do you mean Democratic win? Since when is the GCB R+14?

Biden +9 was 4.5 more D than the national vote in 2020. So if national vote is R+5, that district would be highly competitive in most circumstances. R+14 would make Biden +18 ish districts competitive.

[YE]

https://www.kgw.com/article/news/politics/elections/primary-election-2022-results-oregon-portland/283-3d3554f8-23b7-4dd9-99b6-11bee5bfe48e

OR-5 is potentially winnable


Republicans are only 1k behind in the total votes in that district than the Democrats

Not potentially. It is. Dare I say, R's are favored to pick it up if Schrader loses.

It’s Biden+9, a pretty steep hill to climb.

Biden +9 is literally less than a 5-point Republican win on the generic ballot nationally on average. Not steep at all actually.

Republicans on this forum greatly underestimate their own party. Almost like they've internalized the massive Dem bias here and elsewhere.

Do you mean Democratic win? Since when is the GCB R+14?

Biden +9 was 4.5 more D than the national vote in 2020. So if national vote is R+5, that district would be highly competitive in most circumstances. R+14 would make Biden +18 ish districts competitive.

Oh, right. But I think most people would agree it’s fairly competitive though not certain to fall and pretty safe in non-wave years?

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Does anyone know why there are so many more votes out in OR-5, where AP has 50% reporting than everywhere else where they have 80ish% reporting?

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Does anyone know why there are so many more votes out in OR-5, where AP has 50% reporting than everywhere else where they have 80ish% reporting?

Printing error in Clackamas County.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://www.kgw.com/article/news/politics/elections/primary-election-2022-results-oregon-portland/283-3d3554f8-23b7-4dd9-99b6-11bee5bfe48e

OR-5 is potentially winnable


Republicans are only 1k behind in the total votes in that district than the Democrats

Not potentially. It is. Dare I say, R's are favored to pick it up if Schrader loses.

It’s Biden+9, a pretty steep hill to climb.

Biden +9 is literally less than a 5-point Republican win on the generic ballot nationally on average. Not steep at all actually.

Republicans on this forum greatly underestimate their own party. Almost like they've internalized the massive Dem bias here and elsewhere.

Republicans definitely could win the district but it’s hard to see how Democrats are not still favored to hold it.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I should also note that Schrader was already an under-performer to begin with even before he was doing stuff like calling Trump’s second impeachment “a lynching” and voting against BBB.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

So I guess this is as good a time as any to say that my PA-ticket was Oz/Mastriano/DelRosso (etc. etc.).  

Also: SnowLab, I owe you an apology.  While your trademark dooming can be a bit tiresome, you were right in your early-night forecast that McCormick would overperform expectations.  Shout-out to Xing as well.  

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I should also note that Schrader was already an under-performer to begin with even before he was doing stuff like calling Trump’s second impeachment “a lynching” and voting against BBB.

This is good to note. He underperforms Statewide and National Dems.
People see Blue Dog and assume electoral titan when there is no evidence that a generic Dem wouldn’t do better in this case.

Also, did some back of the table math, I’m seeing estimates of 55% in and McLeod-Skinner up by about 9,000 votes. If those numbers are accurate Schader would need to win 64% of outstanding votes to win here. It’s not impossible but doesn’t look great for him.

[n1240]

The % reporting vote numbers from NYTimes were pretty nonsensical throughout last night, and still remain to be wildly off, here's my valuation of what's left in the R primary, and offering a scenario putting McCormick on top.

First it's worth considering the counties that have not reported a single mail-in vote -

Armstrong, Beaver, Cameron, Clarion, Forest, Franklin, Greene, Mercer, Mifflin, Monroe, Montour, and Tioga

I don't know the exact amount to expect from these counties, but I have a pretty good estimate which I can refine when I have the updated absentee voter file. As of now, I expect around 9000 votes from these counties that McCormick will net around 1000 votes in, due to the favorable margins he generally achieved in these counties

Next, I'll consider the counties that have reported fewer mail-in votes than ballots reported as received as of Tuesday morning:

Berks, Blair, Bradford, Carbon, Centre, Chester, Clinton, Crawford, Dauphin, Erie, Lancaster, Lebanon, Luzerene, Philadelphia.

The biggest chunk of votes from these counties will be from Lancaster which had processing issues, around 5000 should be expected. Luzerene should have more than 2000 , Berks, Blair, Erie, Crawford and Philadelphia should have more than 1000 each, the rest relatively smaller amounts. Cumulatively these counties should have around 10000 votes (excluding Lancaster) which McCormick may net around 800 votes from. It's worth noting that these votes generally aren't necessarily cast "later", so I don't think it should be expected that these votes will vary significantly from the initial early mail votes in these counties.

Lancaster appears to be an interesting case - McCormick should net around 500 votes based on election day looked like here, however in the initial mail ballot drop, Oz had slightly more votes than McCormick, which is an extremely odd result considering no other county in the state had McCormick ahead of Oz on election day and behind on early vote. Would think it could just be a very unrepresentative sample and it reverts to the norm, but if it doesn't then it's a serious blow to McCormick's chances

Next it is worth considering Allegheny and Montgomery counties - both counties have only reported slightly more mail votes than what they reported to have received as of Tuesday morning, so I'd assume that they do have more to vote, but can't confirm this yet (will be able to confirm more strongly when I get the absentee file). Allegheny I'd probably expect around 1500 votes which McCormick nets 300 from, and Montgomery maybe 500 which McCormick nets <50 from.

There is some election day from Allegheny and Philadelphia respectively as well, but I think together they'll be a wash with no net towards either candidate.

So overall, I've proposed a fairly reasonable scenario where McCormick ends up taking the lead by less than 100 votes, which around 27k votes counted. Obviously it probably won't play out exactly like this but this was just an exercise to demonstrate the reasonability of McCormick winning off the remaining mail vote, along with reconsidering some assumptions, but I think it's extremely likely the race will end within a 500 vote margin in either direction before a potential recount. I'll try and refine my estimates later when I get the updated absentee file to better refine the distribution of remaining mail.

[Unelectable Bystander]

We've gotten the full GOP experience-

Tight race between unethical businessman, insane person, and random celebrity ending in a demand for recounts and voter fraud allegations.

Lol you gotta laugh at that one

[JM1295]

If Schrader really does go down, I have to imagine Cuellar is panicking even more now. Polling had apparently shown both Schrader and Cuellar trailing in their primaries. Started out as a rough night for progressives with the losses in North Carolina, but Fetterman, Andrea Salinas, and Summer Lee winning and potentially ousting Kurt Schrader is a solid showing.