Will Sinema's 2024 Senate primary be called when polls close?

[brucejoel99]

Do you think that Sinema's 2024 Senate primary will be called when polls close?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

No, I think it will be closer than people expect.

[MT Treasurer]

I don’t think so, but the race probably won’t be all that close when all is said and done (either Sinema wins fairly easily or loses decisively — the former is still more likely than the latter, in my view). 'Bold' prediction: Sinema is more likely to win reelection (both primary & GE) than Mark Kelly.

If she survives the primary challenge, there’s a good chance her GE win is projected at poll closing time, though.

[Real Texan Politics]

Not exactly when called but I don't think it'll be that long.

[Xing]

Primaries are usually not called immediately if they’re at all competitive, even if they end up being quite lopsided, so almost certainly not, and I don’t think it’s impossible that this primary ends up somewhat close.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I don’t think it will be called when polls close because when networks do this, it is based on exit polling, and networks don’t usually do exit poll for Senate primaries.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I think there is a better than even chance that Sinema doesn’t bother trying to run again, at least not as a Democrat.

She certainly has the delusional self-regard of an Indy gadfly. First incumbent Senator to come in third place will certainly be a good for a laugh.

[SnowLabrador]

I don't think she's even going to bother running. She can't possibly be stupid enough to think she can win a general election after completely sh*tting all over the D base. No, she's going to retire and make big bucks as a lobbyist.

I do, however, have a sinking feeling that if she does run, she'll win the primary. That is my hot take of the evening.