Rate New Mexico

[ElectionsGuy]

Vote and edit votes in previous threads

AZ FL GA ME MI MN NV PA WI

Ratings



Predictions



Republicans: 27 (? % of population)
Democrats: 15 (? % of population)

[Calthrina950]

Lean D, closer to Tossup than Likely D. Grisham has never been particularly popular, has had one of the harsher responses to the pandemic, and has been caught in a number of scandals (i.e. sexual harassment claims and the jewelry scandal). Ronchetti, who is her likely opponent, overperformed against Lujan in 2020 and would be a solid candidate. And New Mexico has the kind of demographics that could lead to a Republican victory. I'd say she has the advantage for now, but this could be a surprise pickup for Republicans on Election Night.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe D

[Real Texan Politics]

Assuming Ronchetti gets the nomination, I think this could be the surprise flip of the year. Remember he didn't lose by that much in the 2020 senate race, in fact it was more competitive than Maine, which many expected to flip.

Tossup/tilt R

[Calthrina950]

Assuming Ronchetti gets the nomination, I think this could be the surprise flip of the year. Tossup/tilt R. Remember he didn't lose by that much in the 2020 senate race, in fact it was more competitive than Maine, which many expected to flip.

Not just Maine. In addition to Gideon, Ronchetti also did better than Bullock, Bollier, Greenfield, Gross, Harrison, and Hegar, all of whom were in supposedly competitive races. In contrast to all of these candidates, he was largely ignored during the campaign and did not fundraise to nearly the same extent or have the same amount of party resources allocated to him.

[ModerateRadical]

Assuming Ronchetti gets the nomination, I think this could be the surprise flip of the year. Tossup/tilt R. Remember he didn't lose by that much in the 2020 senate race, in fact it was more competitive than Maine, which many expected to flip.

Not just Maine. In addition to Gideon, Ronchetti also did better than Bullock, Bollier, Greenfield, Gross, Harrison, and Hegar, all of whom were in supposedly competitive races. In contrast to all of these candidates, he was largely ignored during the campaign and did not fundraise to nearly the same extent or have the same amount of party resources allocated to him.

Entirely possible that being largely ignored helped his campaign outperform Trump, just like how Mike Espy outran Biden by more than Jaime Harrison in 2020.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Michelle LG is Latina so she is the same as Susana Martinez and Bill Richardson NM has had 3 straight 2 T Latino Govs and they are won 55/45

[Xing]

Lean D. An upset isn’t impossible here, but I think ME flips first, and there’s absolutely no way Whitmer wins while Grisham loses.

[Chips]

Lean D. The ingredients to create a competitive race are definitely there but given that Grisham is running, I still give her the advantage based on New Mexico's partisan lean and incumbency alone. Still, as some have already said watch this race for a possible upset.

[Real Texan Politics]

Lean D. An upset isn’t impossible here, but I think ME flips first, and there’s absolutely no way Whitmer wins while Grisham loses.

Honestly if we’re gonna compare this to 2021, I could see New Mexico being like Virginia and Maine being like New Jersey.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Lean D. An upset isn’t impossible here, but I think ME flips first, and there’s absolutely no way Whitmer wins while Grisham loses.

Honestly if we’re gonna compare this to 2021, I could see New Mexico being like Virginia and Maine being like New Jersey.

NM = VA makes sense, but ME is much more Republican than NJ. NJ could be Oregon or CT.