Rate Minnesota

[ElectionsGuy]

Vote and edit votes in previous threads

AZ GA ME MI NV PA WI

Ratings



Predictions



Republicans: 26 (? % of population)
Democrats: 14 (? % of population)

[Xing]

Lean D. The environment could be just enough for Republicans, but it's hard for them to form a path to victory in Minnesota.

[Calthrina950]

Lean D. Minnesota continues to remain a very difficult state for Republicans. They haven't won any statewide elections there since 2006, and the state's legendary Democratic voting streak at the presidential level remains. Walz is relatively popular, and I think he'll win by a clear, if underwhelming, margin.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe D

[Red Wall]

Toss-up

[Hope For A New Era]

The Universal* Law Of Minnesota Elections:

~ 45% = R percentage
~ 55% minus 3rd party percentage = D percentage


*universal unless you are Amy Klobuchar

[Real Texan Politics]

Lean D, but closer to tilt.

[Calthrina950]

The Universal Law Of Minnesota Elections:

~ 45% = R percentage
~ 55% minus 3rd party percentage = D percentage

Almost universal. Amy Klobuchar is the lone Democrat in recent years who has consistently gotten above 55% statewide, receiving 58% in 2006, 65% in 2012, and 60% in 2018.

[Utah Neolib]

Lean D, closer to tilt. The environment, and slow trends will play a real factor here. People are criminally underestimating Republican chances here. This may be a reverse version of 2018 GA GOV.

[MT Treasurer]

Tilt/Lean D. I don’t see why it would be harder for the GOP to form a path to victory in MN than in VA, and I think the 2020 results have led people to overstate the state's Democratic lean even in very Republican years. I’m not saying that Walz will lose, but I don’t buy this race being a blowout on a night when Republicans are flipping governorships in WI, MI, PA, ME, etc. and are competitive in places like NH (for federal office). The good thing for Walz is that he doesn’t need that much crossover appeal to win, hasn’t been nearly as aggressive on COVID as other Democratic governors, and is running in a state with (still, even if to a lesser extent than a decade ago) one of the most effective D state parties in the nation.

I will say that the so-called "Universal Law Of Minnesota Elections" was applied in exactly the same way to AZ, but with the parties reversed and Democrats supposedly having a "ceiling" of 45% in that state — we know how that one turned out. Walz will probably win, but it’s foolish to suggest that an open seat (or a Senate race with a D incumbent like Tina Smith, for instance) wouldn’t have been extremely winnable for the GOP in 2022.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Lean D

[Hope For A New Era]

The Universal Law Of Minnesota Elections:

~ 45% = R percentage
~ 55% minus 3rd party percentage = D percentage

Almost universal. Amy Klobuchar is the lone Democrat in recent years who has consistently gotten above 55% statewide, receiving 58% in 2006, 65% in 2012, and 60% in 2018.

fixed

[President Johnson]

Lean Democratic.

The state even elected Democratic governors in 2010 and 2014 and it seem like Walz has been largely uncontroversial and relatively popular. I think he ends up winning somehing like 50-45%.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lean D

I think Waltz should be ok.

He's stayed on down low, and Biden's decently strong performance in MN in 2020 also gives some hope.

He does have room to fall in rurals, but I think at this point Minneapolis has become large enough that it makes it tricky for GOP to outright win statewide, though if they do, 2022 would be the year.

[Miked0920]

Its a Lean D from me. Walz is far from safe and it should be pretty competitive but Minnesota still has a slight Democratic lean and Walz himself is personally popular enough to win re-election Id give him around a 75% chance of winning re-election to start

[DaleCooper]

The Universal Law Of Minnesota Elections:

~ 45% = R percentage
~ 55% minus 3rd party percentage = D percentage

Almost universal. Amy Klobuchar is the lone Democrat in recent years who has consistently gotten above 55% statewide, receiving 58% in 2006, 65% in 2012, and 60% in 2018.

I'm excited to see how she does in 2024. I think she will receive her lowest percentage yet, but still outperform the presidential candidate. It'll be interesting to see how Schumer does this year, as there were a ton of Trump-Schumer split-ticket voters in 2016, but I expect him to lose pretty much all of upstate New York this year.

[Greedo punched first]

Don’t the trends in the suburbs make it difficult for the GOP to win statewide?

[Calthrina950]

The Universal Law Of Minnesota Elections:

~ 45% = R percentage
~ 55% minus 3rd party percentage = D percentage

Almost universal. Amy Klobuchar is the lone Democrat in recent years who has consistently gotten above 55% statewide, receiving 58% in 2006, 65% in 2012, and 60% in 2018.

I'm excited to see how she does in 2024. I think she will receive her lowest percentage yet, but still outperform the presidential candidate. It'll be interesting to see how Schumer does this year, as there were a ton of Trump-Schumer split-ticket voters in 2016, but I expect him to lose pretty much all of upstate New York this year.

A Klobuchar victory along the lines of 55-43% or so wouldn't be surprising to me. And Schumer could be held under 60% this year, which would be a dramatic decline for him.