Australia 2022 Election

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Found it weird there's no thread on this quickly upcoming election, Labour has a large polling lead but they also did last time so nobody is going into election day not sweating. Main topics will probably be a referendum on covid, the greens seems to have vanished and unvaxxed billionare Clive Palmer has merged his moderate hero party with anti-vaxx sentiment to waste another small fortune.


https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jan/20/albanese-stakes-out-coalition-seats-in-queensland-as-morrison-zeroes-in-on-nsw-ahead-of-election

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

There looks to be a little more diversity in the 2PP polling than last time, but still not enough to make accusations of herding look unfounded...

I'm hopeful pollsters have learned from the last disaster to avoid that mistake but i'm still concenrds about the polls. Broadly covid lockdown measures are popular and tend to be more popular on the left, but have massively impacted certain key parts of the labour base foreign immigrants with substantial ties to their country of origin as well events workers that traditionaly tend to lean labour. These groups also tend to be harder for pollsters to access which could probably create a suprise for the results.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Morrison still leads the Preferred PM polls, at least until the most recent one, I won’t start to feel confident until Albanese has a sustained lead in them.

Yeah especially since the unpopularity is mostly driven by the current omicron wave which seems to already be subsiding, as well as messaging on covid leaving labour vulnerable to a culture war attacks.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Not sure on what basis you say ‘the Greens seem to have vanished’. They’re basically polling the same as they got last time, if anything maybe very slightly up.

Well in terms of public profile, they don't seem to be running on anything.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Morrison still leads the Preferred PM polls, at least until the most recent one, I won’t start to feel confident until Albanese has a sustained lead in them.

Yeah especially since the unpopularity is mostly driven by the current omicron wave which seems to already be subsiding, as well as messaging on covid leaving labour vulnerable to a culture war attacks.

They have been behind since the Delta lockdowns mid last year, and Morrison has been hit on many different issues. So it's possible that this is a mood for change election after 9 years of a government that is divided and without much to show for itself, especially because Labor are not providing voters a reason to hesitate like last time.

Also very true, 3 elections is a long-time for the same party to hold power and voters may simply be tiring of the coalition brand.

It all depends on the campaign that Labour runs, but I do think they should be wary of overermphaising covid-19 and the current omicron wave which could cause them to loose support from an unexpected qurater.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I think Morrison might eek out a minority, running solely against Morrison didn't work out too well for labour last time. IDK why they expect it work better this time ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

How hardline are Labor on Covid restrictions compared to the government's policies?

As an outside observer my impression is that Labour has bee trying to pin the blame on Scomo for the omicron surge while avoiding saying what they've had done differently beyond more ART's or "competence" avoiding the hard question of whether or not they'd have reopened the border to quarantine free-travel or not.

As someone very hostile the LNP/National Coallation this is strikes me as a very self-serving political strategy that would probably discourage me from voting labour if I was australian.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

What are People predicting ? this is a hot-take of mine but I'm thinking it'll be Labour Minority government.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Well, at least Morrison can have this: first PM to last an entire term since Howard.

Strange how quickly people forgot about the LNP's chronic backstabbing syndrome.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

ScoMo has lasted so long because his only skill is his ruthlessness in internal party politicking. The party room is still united around him (...for five more weeks) because he's spent the last 4 years taking calculated decisions to unite the factions and protect his leadership. If only he could actually lead the country as well rather than buggering off to Hawaii...

The new rules aren't particularly relevant as a majority of the party can still force the leader to ""resign"" when their position becomes untenable. If a majority of your colleagues want you gone you cannot continue in your position for long, yet alone fight an election. All the new rules do is force all the internal bloodletting further behind closed doors and gets rid of the sudden midnight spills that cause awful PR.

Will he be gone if labour manages to form Goverment?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Is there any party that considers the horrifying, totalitarian Australian lockdowns a grave mistake and actually promises no more lockdowns? This would be my issue 1, 2, 3 etc. in Australia.

I mean pretty much everyone important outside of WA admit that it's time to move on....NSW and Vic are now saying "only isolate if you test positive" and masks have largely been scrapped.

In terms of being hard anti-lockdown, most of the minor right (especially the UAP and the LDP) seem to be pitching that way.

I don't even think the UAP is right wing. I think their position is more or less 'whatever Clive Palmer thinks will help him'

Let's not kid ourselves, Clive Palmer is the leader of that party, not Craig Kelly.

Weren't they like pro-refugee or something ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I hate when this forum "Americanizes"--you know, overstating the "totalitarianism" of lockdowns.

If you think opposition to totalitarian lockdowns is a purely American phenonenon, it might be you who has an America-centric worldview.

If you genuinely think Australia's lockdowns were totalitarian you're listening to too much Ted Cruz and not enough of us who actually went through them.

Speak for yourself.  Being confined to a 5 kilometre radius for 3 months at a time, repeatedly, under the threat of thousands of dollars of fines, is not an experience that I care to repeat.

It is not an experience I care to repeat either, but it was one that I felt was necessary at the time (along with many health experts).

The Issue is not so much the past lockdown but a consistent push by a loud minority to normalize some aspects of the lockdown permanently, minimize how invasive it was to fundamental rights and perhaps some remnants who want to re-adopt a zero covid approach.

Look at how people have been complaning about the scrapping of vaccine pass systems(despite almost all evidence indicating that they were useless at actualy preventing spread outside of encouraging vaccination) and how some people want to make mask wearing a permenant part of life(treating it as no different from another piece of clothing).

The term "freedumbs" and it's popularity is charecteristic of this tendency, as if not wanting any of these measures makes you some sort of far-right crazy person.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I hate when this forum "Americanizes"--you know, overstating the "totalitarianism" of lockdowns.

If you think opposition to totalitarian lockdowns is a purely American phenonenon, it might be you who has an America-centric worldview.

If you genuinely think Australia's lockdowns were totalitarian you're listening to too much Ted Cruz and not enough of us who actually went through them.

Speak for yourself.  Being confined to a 5 kilometre radius for 3 months at a time, repeatedly, under the threat of thousands of dollars of fines, is not an experience that I care to repeat.

It is not an experience I care to repeat either, but it was one that I felt was necessary at the time (along with many health experts).

The Issue is not so much the past lockdown but a consistent push by a loud minority to normalize some aspects of the lockdown permanently, minimize how invasive it was to fundamental rights and perhaps some remnants who want to re-adopt a zero covid approach.

Look at how people have been complaning about the scrapping of vaccine pass systems(despite almost all evidence indicating that they were useless at actualy preventing spread outside of encouraging vaccination) and how some people want to make mask wearing a permenant part of life(treating it as no different from another piece of clothing).

Your post is an example of how those outside Australia totally misunderstand its policies. I can tell you definitively that mask wearing is barely required in any normal setting anymore here; hospitals and public transport (and it is not now, nor was it ever, enforced on public transport). Some of you seem to have this picture of Australia as a police state when we have been living fairly normally and lockdown-free for about 6 months now.

I understand quite well what the situation was like in australia and how defacto for much of the population life was pretty normal and is now everywhere pretty normal. My comment is about the long-term political effects and why people are still concerned about them.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I hate when this forum "Americanizes"--you know, overstating the "totalitarianism" of lockdowns.

If you think opposition to totalitarian lockdowns is a purely American phenonenon, it might be you who has an America-centric worldview.

If you genuinely think Australia's lockdowns were totalitarian you're listening to too much Ted Cruz and not enough of us who actually went through them.

Speak for yourself.  Being confined to a 5 kilometre radius for 3 months at a time, repeatedly, under the threat of thousands of dollars of fines, is not an experience that I care to repeat.

It is not an experience I care to repeat either, but it was one that I felt was necessary at the time (along with many health experts).

The Issue is not so much the past lockdown but a consistent push by a loud minority to normalize some aspects of the lockdown permanently, minimize how invasive it was to fundamental rights and perhaps some remnants who want to re-adopt a zero covid approach.

Look at how people have been complaning about the scrapping of vaccine pass systems(despite almost all evidence indicating that they were useless at actualy preventing spread outside of encouraging vaccination) and how some people want to make mask wearing a permenant part of life(treating it as no different from another piece of clothing).

Your post is an example of how those outside Australia totally misunderstand its policies. I can tell you definitively that mask wearing is barely required in any normal setting anymore here; hospitals and public transport (and it is not now, nor was it ever, enforced on public transport). Some of you seem to have this picture of Australia as a police state when we have been living fairly normally and lockdown-free for about 6 months now.

I understand quite well what the situation was like in australia and how defacto for much of the population life was pretty normal and is now everywhere pretty normal. My comment is about the long-term political effects and why people are still concerned about them.

Do you live in Singapore or not?

I do live in singapore, but i'm familiar with Australias approach to covid and the reality of what measure were imposed.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Are any of the races in Tasmania going to be interesting ? I'm particulary curious about who Andrew Wilkie's voter base in Hobart are ?. he seems to be a crypto-green having been a former member of the party who's officaly left but mostly kept the same kind of left-wing policies(focused more on social liberalism) but i'm curious what his voting patterns.

Are his voters just your normal green voters or is there something else at play here ?


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Wilkie

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Are any of the races in Tasmania going to be interesting ? I'm particulary curious about who Andrew Wilkie's voter base in Hobart are ?. he seems to be a crypto-green having been a former member of the party who's officaly left but mostly kept the same kind of left-wing policies(focused more on social liberalism) but i'm curious what his voting patterns.

Are his voters just your normal green voters or is there something else at play here ?


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Wilkie

When he won in 2010 IIRC he did way better in the middle-class south of the seat than the more working-class north. So he clearly won a significant chunk of progressive voters. Since then it's been a massive personal vote that like him as a MP.....which is often the case for Indies.

I'm curious where the seat would go without him ? gut instinct says it would be safe labour with the greens in second ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Are any of the races in Tasmania going to be interesting ? I'm particulary curious about who Andrew Wilkie's voter base in Hobart are ?. he seems to be a crypto-green having been a former member of the party who's officaly left but mostly kept the same kind of left-wing policies(focused more on social liberalism) but i'm curious what his voting patterns.

Are his voters just your normal green voters or is there something else at play here ?


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Wilkie

When he won in 2010 IIRC he did way better in the middle-class south of the seat than the more working-class north. So he clearly won a significant chunk of progressive voters. Since then it's been a massive personal vote that like him as a MP.....which is often the case for Indies.

I'm curious where the seat would go without him ? gut instinct says it would be safe labour with the greens in second ?

Instincy is entirely correct as proven at state elections. Greens could be competitive if they got Libs preferences like they used to but those times have long passed.

Wait what ? I thought the Tree Tory phenomena was a newly emerging thing not something that has long since passed/

Was it mostly based on negative partisanship by the Liberal towards Labour, or did the greens have some actual attraction to liberal voters in the past ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

What is the UAPs mostly likely to win seat ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Something else that's moved Libs away from preferencing the Greens is their expansion away from purely being an environmentalist party and having a broader policy agenda (which of course is made up of standard left-wing stuff). I think the "Tree Tory" voter phenomenon is very much alive but these voters are much more likely to bolt towards a teal independent that cleverly keeps a narrow focus than ever vote for or preference a Greens candidate that they see as some kind of pseudo-Marxist.

Is there actually room in Australian politics for a conservative enviormentla policy ? I remember hearing something about some science party. I guess Sustaniable Australia is a bit like that with their stance on cutting economic immigration, but they haven't had much mainstream succses.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sustainable_Australia

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

What are the minority government scenarios here? What numbers do labours/collation require for a minority government?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Something else that's moved Libs away from preferencing the Greens is their expansion away from purely being an environmentalist party and having a broader policy agenda (which of course is made up of standard left-wing stuff). I think the "Tree Tory" voter phenomenon is very much alive but these voters are much more likely to bolt towards a teal independent that cleverly keeps a narrow focus than ever vote for or preference a Greens candidate that they see as some kind of pseudo-Marxist.

Is there actually room in Australian politics for a conservative enviormentla policy ? I remember hearing something about some science party. I guess Sustaniable Australia is a bit like that with their stance on cutting economic immigration, but they haven't had much mainstream succses.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sustainable_Australia

Historically that would have been the electorate of the Australian Democrats tbh

I thought the greens bit off the biggest chunk of their electorate, in providing a center-left not labour option ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Does anyone have a link to labours manifesto ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

What is that makes higher income people who are socially liberal and care about the environment so résistent to simply voting for the Labor Party, as opposed to voting for all these so called “teal independents”? It’s not as if the ALP stands for socialist Revolution. In the UK just about all of those urban “remain” types who care about climate change vote Labour. Is it some weird cultural vestigial attitude that makes professional university educated types in Australia look down their noses at the ALP because they grew up being told that only “icky manual labourers” voted ALP?

The ALP has often taken very visible anti enviorment pro fossil fuel positions. If enviormentalism is your main point of contention labour isn't exactly the most attractive party to switch too

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

In the UK just about all of those urban “remain” types who care about climate change vote Labour.

They certainly do not, except as a tactical choice on occasion. In fact both the question and the answer is exactly the same as 'why do people in Richmond never vote Labour when they're cross with the Conservatives?'

Yes, but Labour wins some pretty upscale seats like Islington etc...The thing that surprises me is that the Coalition is even still competitive in upscale inner city electorates like Wentworth. Seats like that in Canada are now totally unwinnable for the Tories and in the US professional urban voters have completely turned their backs on the GOP. And its not as if the Liberals in Australia have done anything to make themselves more palatable to urban quasi progressives - they are led by a fundamentalist Christian, they are totally xenophobic and into complete climate change denial.

Islington has an extremely high child poverty rate(43%), much of the labour support there comes from council estates not hipsters. The Bobo hipster left is a thing in Australia, but it's mostly concentrated in the green party(look at their single seat in Melbourne center) and the split-between the Australian National and Liberal party, prevents the urban conservative party from having the baggage that sinks other conservative parties among suburbanites.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The other issue is that the Australian population is far more concentrated in state capitals than in other countries, Queensland aside. If the Liberals wrote off Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth they would mathematically be locked out of rule in those states.

Australia is one of the worlds most urbanised countries, that means that any competitive party has to be able to win over urban voters.