Australia 2022 Election

[GoTfan]

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/solomon-islands-tells-japan-it-will-not-allow-china-military-bases-2022-04-26/

Reports that the Solomon Islands have told Japan that they will not allow a Chinese military base, I wonder if this takes some of the pressure off of the government that they've faced recently over the situation.

I doubt it.

Again, I don't expect this to affect the election that much, but it is telling that Dutton started banging the war drum. On Anzac Day no less.

Side note: Good ol' ScoMo was out showing just how much he respects our veterans by texting at a Dawn Service:

[morgieb]

Because I'm bored I'll do predictions for every seat as I did in 2013 and 2016. Will take me some time to do, this could change as the campaign rages.

Anyway, here's NSW Coalition seats:

Riverina - safe seat for the Nationals. Theoretically it could be viable turf for an Independent as the seat is pretty homogenous and McCormack isn't the most beloved politician, but no good one is running so....

Cook - alas, Scotty is safe here. The margin might be fun to watch as Morrison is far less popular now than what he was in 2019 and the margin seems kind of inflated (before 2013 it was generally a 60%-ish kind of seat), but yeah this won't be close.

Mitchell - this is another very safe seat for the Libs. It's not even a socially liberal kind of seat (quite the opposite) so I can't imagine any threat from the Teals. Hawke did have a bit of preselection trouble but that won't matter.

Parkes - if a Shooters candidate ran, this could be semi-interesting (they did very well in the area in the 2019 state election), but as it is it won't be, despite Broken Hill.

Bradfield - this was historically the Liberal's safest seat. It's not right now but it's still very safe.....but like most North Shore seats there is a progressive strain here that could make it semi-interesting for an Independent. With that said, it doesn't seem like Boele has had the same sort of attention as Tink, let alone Spender. So while I could see the margin be interesting, this shouldn't be competitive.

Berowra - another safe Liberal seat in the North Shore, and this one doesn't even have an Independent of note. Safe Liberal.

Lyne - another seat where the margin seems a tad inflated, but is still a safe seat for the Nationals unless a big name Independent runs, which doesn't seem to be happening.

New England - another safe Nationals seat unless there's a good Independent, no matter how much of an embarrassment Barnaby seems to be.

Calare - this seat is interesting as it used to be a genuine marginal (Labor held it in the Hawke/Keating years for example) and has some post-industrial terrority (Lithgow and surrounds) that should give Labor at least some kind of base. Yet in recent times it's been a safe seat and Lithgow has turned a long way right. And the rest of the seat is rock-solid National territory. Will be a Nationals hold.

Mackellar - now we get to the seats that might legitimately be a threat to the Teals. While Scamps probably isn't the most high-profile of them, she does seem to be getting her name out there. And Falinski isn't the most beloved candidate. Is there enough discontent for him to lose? Perhaps not, but it's certainly a seat to watch.

Hume - while Taylor isn't exactly a beloved incumbent, the seat should be safe enough for him to hold. Theoretically it could be vulnerable to an Independent but the seat seems a bit too disparate for one to win - it has traditional Coalition territory in the Southern Highlands, a working-class(ish) city in Goulburn and outer suburban territory around Camden and Narellan. Word on the street is that Ackery is running hard in the rural areas but hasn't made much inroads in the suburban part of seat.

Farrer - given Ley won a majority of the primary vote in 2019 despite strong Independent opposition, I can't see her losing without one. And on a Coalition/Labor basis, this is one of the safest seats in the country.

Hughes - this is Craig Kelly's seat. He of course quit the Coalition due to the party finally having enough of his anti-vaxxer nonsense. This is usually a safe Liberal seat (now anyways, it used to be a safe Labor seat funnily enough) but the whole drama about finding a new candidate has to bite, and it seems that whille Jenny Ware (the new Liberal candidate) is a decent fit for the seat and does have branch support, she's still struggling to find the right kind of funds to compete with a strong local Independent in Georgia Steele. I feel like a seat  like this feels more ideologically in line with the modern Liberal party compared to say Wentworth, but it sounds like the Liberals will have the fight of their life on their hands. Forced to call, I still expect the Liberals to hold.

Page - on paper this shouldn't be competitive, but the seat was a long-time marginal before a massive swing in 2019. While the massive swing does suggest that Hogan has a strong personal vote, I do wonder what the floods will mean in this seat as it was the main epicentre for the floods and Morrison's handling of it was not well regarded. Perhaps not a lot but I'd expect a fairly significant correction. This seat also has a decent Independent running, though I'm not sure how strong she is.

North Sydney - similar to Mackellar but the seat is even more inner city and the margin smaller so the maths is easier for Tink. I think Zimmerman might just about hold on, but he is in deep trouble and this will be a massive fight.

Bennelong - while the margin is biggish, there's a lot riding against the Liberals here. Firstly, there's the problems that the Liberals that are having in urban electorates. Secondly, the Chinese population here is massive and it seems like they're ripe for a massive swing vis a vis 2019. Thirdly, the sitting MP is retiring, who seemed to have at least some popular appeal. The new Liberal candidate seems rather weak and has come out as opposing vaccine mandates, which would bite in a highly-educated and diverse electorate. And Labor preselected the local mayor. For now, a very narrow Liberal hold but this has significant upset potential.

Cowper - in theory a safe seat (the 2000's version was semi-marginal but the boundaries are more National-leaning now with the addition of Port Macquarie) and Oakeshott isn't running this time. But there's a new Independent in Caz Heise who has genuine local appeal that should give the Nats a scare. How big of a one I'm not sure, especially because Conaghan should get a sophmore surge. But it's another headache for the Coalition.

Banks - historically Labor held, this seat eventually moved to the Coalition's hands thanks to a double whammy of demographic change around the Georges River (especially around Panania/Revesby) and the rightwards shift of the Chinese vote. It also feels like Coleman has worked the electorate well. While the second factor should see a rebound for Labor, the margin seems big enough and the electorate suburban enough that I don't see this one flipping back.

Lindsay - one to watch, there were some significant local factors that depressed the Labor vote here, but it's also much more of a Morrison Lib demographic than a Turnbull Lib one so it likely would've flipped anyway. McIntosh should get a sophmore surge which I think should be enough of a buffer against the general swing and a better local situation for the ALP, but it will still be close. One factor to watch will be the populist right vote, which is probably a bigger factor in this seat than others in Sydney.

Robertson - another classic marginal. Labor candidate seems quite strong, incumbent doesn't seem too remarkable either way. I guess Liberals might just hang on because this feels like a Morrison friendly area, but it's on a knives edge.

Reid - it's worth noting that this seat has little in the common with the one that was an ultra safe one for Labor for 80 years, rather it's basically the old Lowe. An interesting balance between the gentrified harbour suburbs, blue ribbon Strathfield and Labor-leaning minority areas in Burwood. However, much of the Liberal electorate here is a fairly inner city one and it's the sort of area that Morrison feels quite on the nose. While Fiona Martin can expect a sophmore surge and has done well to distant herself from some of the more toxic elements of the Liberal brand, it likely won't be enough.

Wentworth - thank god Kerryn Phelps isn't running again, else she'd get smashed. Although this electorate has some of the most expensive suburbs in the entire country there are large chunks of the seat that is basically the CBD....or at least more of a progressive vibe (Bondi). Spender also seems better connected than Phelps and the Libs are more hated now than they were in 2019. While the harbour booths will keep it close and Sharma's done a decent job of making himself look moderate, I think he goes down.

[Pulaski]

Great analysis morgieb.

I know it's technically no longer a Coalition seat, but what are your thoughts on Hughes? I lived there at the last election and my parents and sister have moved there since so I still visit quite a lot. Very doubtful to me that Kelly gets up, but the factional squabbling that's gone on in NSW left the Libs without a candidate until the last minute, leaving them vulnerable in my opinion. Seemed the seat might have been ripe for an organised Independent campaign, but an inability of locals to settle on a candidate means there's two running - though Georgia Steele seems to have much more of a presence in posters and yard signs already.

Interestingly, Labor's original candidate had to withdraw due to dual citizenship, and I've just found out their new guy is Riley Campbell - an old mate of mine! Unfortunately I can't see him mounting a serious challenge; I suspect it will be between the Liberal and Steele.

[morgieb]

Great analysis morgieb.

I know it's technically no longer a Coalition seat, but what are your thoughts on Hughes? I lived there at the last election and my parents and sister have moved there since so I still visit quite a lot. Very doubtful to me that Kelly gets up, but the factional squabbling that's gone on in NSW left the Libs without a candidate until the last minute, leaving them vulnerable in my opinion. Seemed the seat might have been ripe for an organised Independent campaign, but an inability of locals to settle on a candidate means there's two running - though Georgina Steele seems to have much more of a presence in posters and yard signs already.

Interestingly, Labor's original candidate had to withdraw due to dual citizenship, and I've just found out their new guy is Riley Campbell - an old mate of mine! Unfortunately I can't see him mounting a serious challenge; I suspect it will be between the Liberal and Steele.

Hughes is there. My thoughts are basically that the North Shore equivalent of that seat would be a write-off for the Libs given everything that has happened in the last year or so, but it might just be fundamentally conservative for the Libs to hold on. But Steele will give the seat a significant challenge.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Are any of the races in Tasmania going to be interesting ? I'm particulary curious about who Andrew Wilkie's voter base in Hobart are ?. he seems to be a crypto-green having been a former member of the party who's officaly left but mostly kept the same kind of left-wing policies(focused more on social liberalism) but i'm curious what his voting patterns.

Are his voters just your normal green voters or is there something else at play here ?


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Wilkie

[morgieb]

Are any of the races in Tasmania going to be interesting ? I'm particulary curious about who Andrew Wilkie's voter base in Hobart are ?. he seems to be a crypto-green having been a former member of the party who's officaly left but mostly kept the same kind of left-wing policies(focused more on social liberalism) but i'm curious what his voting patterns.

Are his voters just your normal green voters or is there something else at play here ?


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Wilkie

When he won in 2010 IIRC he did way better in the middle-class south of the seat than the more working-class north. So he clearly won a significant chunk of progressive voters. Since then it's been a massive personal vote that like him as a MP.....which is often the case for Indies.

[Pulaski]

Great analysis morgieb.

I know it's technically no longer a Coalition seat, but what are your thoughts on Hughes? I lived there at the last election and my parents and sister have moved there since so I still visit quite a lot. Very doubtful to me that Kelly gets up, but the factional squabbling that's gone on in NSW left the Libs without a candidate until the last minute, leaving them vulnerable in my opinion. Seemed the seat might have been ripe for an organised Independent campaign, but an inability of locals to settle on a candidate means there's two running - though Georgina Steele seems to have much more of a presence in posters and yard signs already.

Interestingly, Labor's original candidate had to withdraw due to dual citizenship, and I've just found out their new guy is Riley Campbell - an old mate of mine! Unfortunately I can't see him mounting a serious challenge; I suspect it will be between the Liberal and Steele.

Hughes is there. My thoughts are basically that the North Shore equivalent of that seat would be a write-off for the Libs given everything that has happened in the last year or so, but it might just be fundamentally conservative for the Libs to hold on. But Steele will give the seat a significant challenge.

Oops, missed it sorry!

[Pulaski]

Are any of the races in Tasmania going to be interesting ? I'm particulary curious about who Andrew Wilkie's voter base in Hobart are ?. he seems to be a crypto-green having been a former member of the party who's officaly left but mostly kept the same kind of left-wing policies(focused more on social liberalism) but i'm curious what his voting patterns.

Are his voters just your normal green voters or is there something else at play here ?


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Wilkie

3 of Tasmania's 5 seats are battlegrounds - Labor are targeting Braddon and Bass. Bass is particularly interesting given it's held on a knife edge by the Liberals, but the sitting member Bridget Archer is something of a backbench rebel who's crossed the floor a few times on hot-button issues. It'll be interesting if she garners any support from putting distance between herself and the unpopular government.

The latest I heard was that the Liberals were actually optimistic about holding both of those seats and were even targeting Labor-held Lyons, so it'll be a state to watch, definitely.

Franklin is safe Labor and morgieb summed up Wilkie's strength in Clark very well - he's one of the best MPs in the House and Clark are very lucky to have him.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Great analysis morgieb.

I know it's technically no longer a Coalition seat, but what are your thoughts on Hughes? I lived there at the last election and my parents and sister have moved there since so I still visit quite a lot. Very doubtful to me that Kelly gets up, but the factional squabbling that's gone on in NSW left the Libs without a candidate until the last minute, leaving them vulnerable in my opinion. Seemed the seat might have been ripe for an organised Independent campaign, but an inability of locals to settle on a candidate means there's two running - though Georgina Steele seems to have much more of a presence in posters and yard signs already.

Interestingly, Labor's original candidate had to withdraw due to dual citizenship, and I've just found out their new guy is Riley Campbell - an old mate of mine! Unfortunately I can't see him mounting a serious challenge; I suspect it will be between the Liberal and Steele.

Hughes is there. My thoughts are basically that the North Shore equivalent of that seat would be a write-off for the Libs given everything that has happened in the last year or so, but it might just be fundamentally conservative for the Libs to hold on. But Steele will give the seat a significant challenge.

A big difference from the North Shore is Hughes has a much higher solid Labor vote that an Independent needs to beat to get into the final top two. Such has been the obstacle for Independent candidates to overcome in marginal to borderline marginal seats for eternity. For an independent to win Hughes they’d need to push the Labor primary a good deal below 20% which is a very tall ask given how rock bottom it already is.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Are any of the races in Tasmania going to be interesting ? I'm particulary curious about who Andrew Wilkie's voter base in Hobart are ?. he seems to be a crypto-green having been a former member of the party who's officaly left but mostly kept the same kind of left-wing policies(focused more on social liberalism) but i'm curious what his voting patterns.

Are his voters just your normal green voters or is there something else at play here ?


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Wilkie

When he won in 2010 IIRC he did way better in the middle-class south of the seat than the more working-class north. So he clearly won a significant chunk of progressive voters. Since then it's been a massive personal vote that like him as a MP.....which is often the case for Indies.

I'm curious where the seat would go without him ? gut instinct says it would be safe labour with the greens in second ?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Are any of the races in Tasmania going to be interesting ? I'm particulary curious about who Andrew Wilkie's voter base in Hobart are ?. he seems to be a crypto-green having been a former member of the party who's officaly left but mostly kept the same kind of left-wing policies(focused more on social liberalism) but i'm curious what his voting patterns.

Are his voters just your normal green voters or is there something else at play here ?


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Wilkie

3 of Tasmania's 5 seats are battlegrounds - Labor are targeting Braddon and Bass. Bass is particularly interesting given it's held on a knife edge by the Liberals, but the sitting member Bridget Archer is something of a backbench rebel who's crossed the floor a few times on hot-button issues. It'll be interesting if she garners any support from putting distance between herself and the unpopular government.

The latest I heard was that the Liberals were actually optimistic about holding both of those seats and were even targeting Labor-held Lyon, so it'll be a state to watch, definitely.

Franklin is safe Labor and morgieb summed up Wilkie's strength in Clark very well - he's one of the best MPs in the house and Clark are very lucky to have him.

Tassie Libs remain aggrieved by their failure in Lyons last election. Candidate selection was rushed and the eventual choice was disendorsed after islamophobic social media comments were found. A shamblolic effort by local Libs to push the Nats candidate failed and Labor skated through even though their primary vote fell to 36%.

Tasmania at federal elections is a black box that delights in swinging at random against the national trends (just look at the 80s!) but from what I’ve heard Tassie Libs are a putting on a brave face but both northern seats are on track to flip and Lyons firmimg up with it.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Are any of the races in Tasmania going to be interesting ? I'm particulary curious about who Andrew Wilkie's voter base in Hobart are ?. he seems to be a crypto-green having been a former member of the party who's officaly left but mostly kept the same kind of left-wing policies(focused more on social liberalism) but i'm curious what his voting patterns.

Are his voters just your normal green voters or is there something else at play here ?


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Wilkie

When he won in 2010 IIRC he did way better in the middle-class south of the seat than the more working-class north. So he clearly won a significant chunk of progressive voters. Since then it's been a massive personal vote that like him as a MP.....which is often the case for Indies.

I'm curious where the seat would go without him ? gut instinct says it would be safe labour with the greens in second ?

Instincy is entirely correct as proven at state elections. Greens could be competitive if they got Libs preferences like they used to but those times have long passed.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Are any of the races in Tasmania going to be interesting ? I'm particulary curious about who Andrew Wilkie's voter base in Hobart are ?. he seems to be a crypto-green having been a former member of the party who's officaly left but mostly kept the same kind of left-wing policies(focused more on social liberalism) but i'm curious what his voting patterns.

Are his voters just your normal green voters or is there something else at play here ?


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Wilkie

When he won in 2010 IIRC he did way better in the middle-class south of the seat than the more working-class north. So he clearly won a significant chunk of progressive voters. Since then it's been a massive personal vote that like him as a MP.....which is often the case for Indies.

I'm curious where the seat would go without him ? gut instinct says it would be safe labour with the greens in second ?

Instincy is entirely correct as proven at state elections. Greens could be competitive if they got Libs preferences like they used to but those times have long passed.

Wait what ? I thought the Tree Tory phenomena was a newly emerging thing not something that has long since passed/

Was it mostly based on negative partisanship by the Liberal towards Labour, or did the greens have some actual attraction to liberal voters in the past ?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Are any of the races in Tasmania going to be interesting ? I'm particulary curious about who Andrew Wilkie's voter base in Hobart are ?. he seems to be a crypto-green having been a former member of the party who's officaly left but mostly kept the same kind of left-wing policies(focused more on social liberalism) but i'm curious what his voting patterns.

Are his voters just your normal green voters or is there something else at play here ?


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Wilkie

When he won in 2010 IIRC he did way better in the middle-class south of the seat than the more working-class north. So he clearly won a significant chunk of progressive voters. Since then it's been a massive personal vote that like him as a MP.....which is often the case for Indies.

I'm curious where the seat would go without him ? gut instinct says it would be safe labour with the greens in second ?

Instincy is entirely correct as proven at state elections. Greens could be competitive if they got Libs preferences like they used to but those times have long passed.

Wait what ? I thought the Tree Tory phenomena was a newly emerging thing not something that has long since passed/

Was it mostly based on negative partisanship by the Liberal towards Labour, or did the greens have some actual attraction to liberal voters in the past ?

Nothing to do with ideology and all about how to vote cards. Both parties traditionally preference just about everyone bar total nutjobs above the other on the off chance something crazy happens, and that included Liberals consistently recommending preferencing Greens above Labor. That ended after their preferences elected Bandt in 2010, he backed Gillard and forced the Carbon Tax.

Victorian Libs broke the tradition first in their state election later that year and voters followed. Without that decision Greens would have beaten Labor in three seats (Melbourne, Brunswick and Richmond) and come very close in Northcote based off the preference flows from 2006. Just to illustrate the importance of HTV cards, in those four seats Liberal votes flowed 75% to the Greens in 2006 but flowed 68% to Labor in 2010.

And since 2010 Liberals have consistently preferenced Labor above the Greens, their voters have consistently followed and Greens have lost half a dozen lower house seats across the country because of it.

Bandt would survive in 2013 in spite of it and prove how impactful HTV cards are. In 2010 Liberal preferences flowed at an astounding 80% to Bandt, singlehandedly electing him. Come 2013 Liberal HTV cards preferenced Labor and Labor won 66% of Liberal preferences.

[Pulaski]

Something else that's moved Libs away from preferencing the Greens is their expansion away from purely being an environmentalist party and having a broader policy agenda (which of course is made up of standard left-wing stuff). I think the "Tree Tory" voter phenomenon is very much alive but these voters are much more likely to bolt towards a teal independent that cleverly keeps a narrow focus than ever vote for or preference a Greens candidate that they see as some kind of pseudo-Marxist.

[Pulaski]

Great analysis morgieb.

I know it's technically no longer a Coalition seat, but what are your thoughts on Hughes? I lived there at the last election and my parents and sister have moved there since so I still visit quite a lot. Very doubtful to me that Kelly gets up, but the factional squabbling that's gone on in NSW left the Libs without a candidate until the last minute, leaving them vulnerable in my opinion. Seemed the seat might have been ripe for an organised Independent campaign, but an inability of locals to settle on a candidate means there's two running - though Georgina Steele seems to have much more of a presence in posters and yard signs already.

Interestingly, Labor's original candidate had to withdraw due to dual citizenship, and I've just found out their new guy is Riley Campbell - an old mate of mine! Unfortunately I can't see him mounting a serious challenge; I suspect it will be between the Liberal and Steele.

Hughes is there. My thoughts are basically that the North Shore equivalent of that seat would be a write-off for the Libs given everything that has happened in the last year or so, but it might just be fundamentally conservative for the Libs to hold on. But Steele will give the seat a significant challenge.

A big difference from the North Shore is Hughes has a much higher solid Labor vote that an Independent needs to beat to get into the final top two. Such has been the obstacle for Independent candidates to overcome in marginal to borderline marginal seats for eternity. For an independent to win Hughes they’d need to push the Labor primary a good deal below 20% which is a very tall ask given how rock bottom it already is.

I mean, Steinwall (a fantastic local councillor who deserves much better) only managed a smidge over 30 last time, and Riley (in his 20s and as far as I know jobless) is not a serious candidate, so perhaps it is possible?

Either way, the primary vote is likely to be incredibly fragmented. Kelly's got next to no chance of winning the seat but he's been the MP for years and I assume will get big financial backing from Palmer, which may see him garner a decent slice of the vote. Most of his votes are likely to come from Liberals and minor parties, but these "populist" loons do tend to draw non-negligible numbers from Labor voters sadly.

[Pulaski]

On a side note, I just looked up 2019 results by polling place for Hughes and aside from Bundeena (an isolated area of the electorate next to the Royal National Park with lots of hippie artist types), the only other booth that went Labor on 2PP was my old area of Como West, which I find bizarre - it's a sleepy, affluent area very much like its surrounding suburbs that all went solidly blue. I wonder what the story behind that is?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

What is the UAPs mostly likely to win seat ?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What is the UAPs mostly likely to win seat ?

I would imagine Craig Kelly is the only real chance.

[Ebowed]

So, at this moment, where would y'all place Labor's chances at winning the election? Percentage terms...

It's a really interesting election, with a lot of variables.  I think Labor's chances of forming majority government are slightly declining week to week, but still looking at 50% chance at this point, with a hung parliament also looking like a good possibility.

The small target strategy by both major parties is probably a net advantage to Morrison.  But it's entirely possible that there is some movement in inner-city seats towards the Holmes a Court funded independents, which presents challenges to both parties: more acutely to the Liberals in retaining those seats, but also to the Labor party is negotiating with them to form government.  Nobody seriously doubts that all of these independents would support an Albanese government, but the cost for extracting that support remains undefined.

What the first couple weeks of the campaign have showed is that a few key assumptions going in may not have been correct:
1. It was generally believed by both sides that Victoria was going to be very strong for the ALP and that the Liberals would not be able to make gains here.  Reporting from on the ground seems to indicate that the Labor party is actually struggling in outer suburban Melbourne with constituencies that they have always been able to take for granted; these electorates are ethnically diverse and greatly affected by cost of living pressures.  Support for Palmer's UAP appears higher than the national average.  Whether gains among white, higher-income voters in the inner city are enough to offset this trend is an open question.  There is also some evidence that Daniel Andrews is beginning to act as a drag on the federal ALP here.

2. It was also generally understood that the ALP would have serious room to grow in Western Australia and Queensland, based on the positive performance of the Labor state governments there.  I think the WA seats are very interesting but I'm less convinced that Queensland is going to be as fruitful for the ALP as they would like.

3. The Liberal strategy to victory was defined as sandbagging NSW, maybe even gaining a seat or two there, and managing not to lose any further seats to the independents.  (They're also making a play for both seats in the NT, Lingiari being considered competitive because of the retirement of the popular ALP incumbent.)  Even as Labor's chances of forming a majority government begin to slightly decline, it's just not clear to me how the Coalition would be able to pull this off - it relies on just about everything going right.

Albanese needs to draw a sharper contrast between the parties if he wants to drive this home.  And both candidates for PM will be merely hoping that their opponent just "continues to be himself."

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Something else that's moved Libs away from preferencing the Greens is their expansion away from purely being an environmentalist party and having a broader policy agenda (which of course is made up of standard left-wing stuff). I think the "Tree Tory" voter phenomenon is very much alive but these voters are much more likely to bolt towards a teal independent that cleverly keeps a narrow focus than ever vote for or preference a Greens candidate that they see as some kind of pseudo-Marxist.

Is there actually room in Australian politics for a conservative enviormentla policy ? I remember hearing something about some science party. I guess Sustaniable Australia is a bit like that with their stance on cutting economic immigration, but they haven't had much mainstream succses.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sustainable_Australia

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

There's talk about how low Labor's primary vote is. It is the case that it is in the mid 30s, but I would say that its effective primary vote is about 44% (its own primary vote plus 80-90% of Green preferences). Unless the Coalition can knock this down a few percent, then it needs something approaching the same preference flow amongst One Nation and Palmer primaries.

[Pulaski]

Something else that's moved Libs away from preferencing the Greens is their expansion away from purely being an environmentalist party and having a broader policy agenda (which of course is made up of standard left-wing stuff). I think the "Tree Tory" voter phenomenon is very much alive but these voters are much more likely to bolt towards a teal independent that cleverly keeps a narrow focus than ever vote for or preference a Greens candidate that they see as some kind of pseudo-Marxist.

Is there actually room in Australian politics for a conservative enviormentla policy ? I remember hearing something about some science party. I guess Sustaniable Australia is a bit like that with their stance on cutting economic immigration, but they haven't had much mainstream succses.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sustainable_Australia

I think big c-Conservatism as it's understood in western politics will always struggle to embrace environmentalism because of the fundamental ideal of eternal growth that underwrites their economic thinking, which obviously environmental conservation grates up against. That and environmentalism has long been broadly associated with the Left. Australia bucks this trend in some ways - our vast mineral wealth and the unionised blue collar jobs that come with that has always put some distance between Labor governments and green movements. The CFMEU, one of the most powerful unions in the country, is still very much pro-coal. But we've also had some unions embrace environmentalism historically - the Green Bans movement, here in Sydney and elsewhere, is a fascinating and inspiring piece of history to learn about.

Back to your question though, while a party based on those ideals would struggle to gain financial support or stay at all consistent ideologically, voters with these somewhat conflicting ideals definitely do exist. It's worth noting that Tasmania, the state that saw the Franklin River Dam protests and the birth of the Greens, was the last state to decriminalise homosexuality in 1997(!)

[Хahar 🤔]

Something else that's moved Libs away from preferencing the Greens is their expansion away from purely being an environmentalist party and having a broader policy agenda (which of course is made up of standard left-wing stuff). I think the "Tree Tory" voter phenomenon is very much alive but these voters are much more likely to bolt towards a teal independent that cleverly keeps a narrow focus than ever vote for or preference a Greens candidate that they see as some kind of pseudo-Marxist.

Is there actually room in Australian politics for a conservative enviormentla policy ? I remember hearing something about some science party. I guess Sustaniable Australia is a bit like that with their stance on cutting economic immigration, but they haven't had much mainstream succses.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sustainable_Australia

The issue there is that this party's thing is "Labor but ecofascist-adjacent", which is probably not the majority view in any of these rich historically Liberal electorates. There's clearly room for a party exactly like Liberals for Forests, which would be conservative in the opposite way, but it's more suited to the self-perception of voters in these electorates as being politically sophisticated for all the candidates who might contest elections under such a banner to be independents instead.

[morgieb]

And now, the Labor (or non-major) held seats in New South Wales:

Macquarie - a very interesting seat in that it combines a safe Liberal seat (the Hawkesbury River towns/exurbs) with a safe Labor one (the Blue Mountains), along with a bit of marginal territory in the Lower Mountains. This of course makes it a very close seat that Labor have held thanks to an excellent local MP for the Mountains. For this reason I don't think it'll swing all that much, but I do think Templeman should hang on. Especially as all the floods in the north of the seat could see a swing against the Libs there.

Eden-Monaro - everyone's favourite bellweather up until 2016, it has stayed Labor thanks to an excellent candidate in Mike Kelly. When he retired it looked like a massive headache for Labor but picking the local mayor from a bushfire affected region was enough to hang on. Will be interesting to see how she's worked the seat since then. Again, I expect it to be close but I think Labor hang on. Especially given what happened in the area in the recent by-elections.

Dobell - classic marginal. It's usually a Labor-leaning seat, but it's not exactly so safe that Labor can ignore it. With the way 2022 is likely to behave I don't expect this to be that interesting, but the margin should still be tight and I could see an upset if the election mood changes.

Gilmore - the only seat to go Coalition -> Labor in 2019 when taking into account redistribution factors. So that makes it an interesting seat to start with. This probably only flipped because the Libs made the mistake of picking Warren Mundine. This time they preselected a popular state MP in Andrew Constance. However it's worth noting Constance's state seat doesn't have that much in common with this federal seat and Phillips has apparently worked the seat well. Constance also had one of the more difficult portfolio's in state politics where his legacy isn't all that glowing. Add that the margin isn't insignificant especially given that 2022 is likely to see a swing back to Labor and I think Phillips hangs on. I could see a counterswing though.

Greenway - an interestingly balanced seat between the Labor-friendly south around Blacktown and new rich suburbs up north which are swingier. The north is growing and becoming more Liberal-friendly which doesn't help Labor. Overall I expect a Labor hold though if the working-class areas see a major party revolt which has been hinted at this is worth watching.

Hunter - for the first time in forever this became a swing seat after a massive swing thanks to coal policy. Labor MP now retiring and the coal politics haven't changed. Still, a 3% swing isn't exactly easy when the country is swinging 3% the other way....and it's worth noting that the tightness of the election had a lot to do with ONP preferences, and the previous One Nation candidate was quite strong - he is now running as an Independent. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if this is an against the grain gain even as Labor win 90 seats or this returns to safety. I guess I'll tip a Labor hold as I don't think Central Queensland would be behaving like it allegedly is if coal was going to ruin Labor in working-class areas.

Parramatta - marginal seat. Labor's chances not helped by the sitting MP retiring, parachuting a candidate that isn't a local and an ex-Labor mayor running on a quasi-populist message. However, it's a fairly polarised seat which probably inhibits any potential swing and it's also possible that the way the Libs went about the last lockdown will breed resentment amongst voters they have to win. Given that the margin for this seat isn't that tight, a probable Labor hold though the swing will likely be small (or the other way).

Richmond - unless this area has a massive trend towards anti-vax style parties (which I guess is possible given that the seat is full of hippies), this won't vote National. The question is whether the Greens could pick it up. The swing for the Greens to win it is quite large (like around 6%) so I'm skeptical. Might be interesting if major party votes really tank, though.

Shortland - another Hunter area seat that suddenly became semi-marginal out of nowhere, though the seat has had a longer-term Liberal trend. It's not really a coal electorate so I'm not convinced there's enough movement left, though the margin will be interesting to watch.

Paterson - interesting one - this used to be a Liberal-leaning seat but the addition of Kurri Kurri and surrounds and the removal of the Mid-North Coast has made this a generally Labor-leaning one. Unlike Hunter Labor's vote in its industrial heartlands was still rather strong so there might be more room for a swing, but I'm dubious on Labor losing this one.

Werriwa - this seat has become a lot more marginal in recent years, which I think is linked to the suburbs west of the M7 growing substanially. Still fairly safe regardless. The next redistribution will be interesting to watch though.

McMahon - another seat that seems to have a road as divider between safe Labor areas and more marginal ones. Should be safe for 2022 though it's another seat where the long-term trend might be with the Liberals.

Macarthur - on current boundaries this is a fairly safe seat, and you've also got a local MP who seems to have a strong personal vote. Will be interesting to watch after the next redistribution, as the 1993-2013 version was generally a Liberal seat.

Kingsford Smith - this was threatening to be close for a while, but trends in inner-city areas has since returned the seat to safety.

Barton - it's interesting that this seat has actually trended quite strongly Liberal when redistributions are taken into account, but I guess the nature of the Chinese vote has influenced that and I guess McClelland had a decent personal vote. This won't be close in 2022, though.

Whitlam - safe seat, though it is interesting that Wollongong is still very solid for Labor when large chunks of the Hunter has moved right given how similar the core Labor vote has been in the areas.

Chifley - the margins (like a lot of the whiter bits of Western Sydney) will be worth watching, but realistically the question is whether Labor get 60% or 70%.

Cunningham - see Whitlam, but this is safer as it does not have a chunk of the Southern Highlands giving the Coalition a small base.

Watson - another safe Labor seat in Western Sydney. I guess the populist percentage might be worth watching?

Newcastle - it's interesting that this seat did not swing at all last year when the rest of the Hunter saw very aggressive swings towards the Coalition. I guess the seat being more of an inner-city electorate rather than a coal mining/industrial one (and the presence of a major university) influences that. Obviously a safe Labor seat.

Fowler - on paper a very safe Labor seat. However the sitting MP is retiring and Labor decided to parachute Kristina Keneally is. Given that she has no links to Liverpool, she's not Vietnamese (which Hayes's anoited successor was and this being such a Vietnamese heavy electorate) and she's quite the immigration hawk, this did not go down well. On a Labor/Liberal basis this wouldn't have been enough....but Dai Le is running as an Independent and she does have a strong local appeal/profile. Is that enough for Keneally to lose? I'm not sure. My guess is that she narrowly hangs on, but with Labor's majority slashed to ribbons.

Blaxland - another ultra-safe Labor seat in Western Sydney, most famous for being the seat of a man with fine cultural tastes and an ultra-sharp wit.

Grayndler - Albo's seat....also mine. This is safe but I will be interested in seeing what the margin is. Albanese has moved a fair way right since becoming the Opposition Leader so I could see a few Green-leaning voters who gave Albanese a personal vote moving towards the Greens. That won't be enough to make it interesting, though. But one way or another, in 2025 I could see it being very interesting as the area at the state level is very strongly Green.

Sydney - as things stand this is a very safe seat for Labor. Were Plibersek to retire the Greens vote would be interesting to watch, but the area feels slightly less left-friendly than Grayndler so I'm not convinced it would doom Labor here.

Warringah - this was Tony Abbott's seat. He of course lost in 2019 in a landslide after proving too controversial for an electorate that had some progressive leans and finding a strong candidate to run against him. In theory Steggall should've been vulnerable to a Liberal more in tune with the seat, but instead the Libs preselected a far-right culture warrior. So yeah, Steggall's majority will increase.

So Labor gain one seat (Reid) and one other seat (Wentworth) goes Indie. Interestingly there does seem to be a lot of seats where the Coalition might have hopes of gaining, but I don't see them doing so in 2022 unless I get the nature of the year dead wrong.