Australia 2022 Election

[Estrella]

It's still unclear on what day will the election take place, but for now, the most likely options are May 7, May 14 or May 21.

As for the polls, ALP is ahead 54-46 or so, as said earlier in the thread. Albo is still behind Morrison in preferred PM polls, but he's closing in fast and his personal disapproval ratings are lower than Scomo's.

Assuming uniform swing and a smaller ALP victory than what the polls are showing right now, say 52-48, the election result would be 75 ALP, 68 Coalition - still one seat short of a majority. Coalition would lose Bass, Chisholm, Boothby, Swan, Braddon, Reid and Longman to ALP, plus possibly Wentworth to indie Kerryn Phelps, if she chooses to stand again. If ALP really got to 54-46, dominoes would start to fall: Coalition would also lose Higgins, Leichhardt, Robertson, La Trobe, Dickson, Casey, Deakin, Brisbane, Lindsay and Pearce for a result of 85 ALP, 58 Coalition. It seems that the map is pretty ALP-unfriendly - Rudd in 2007 and Abbott in 2013 both won a similar number or more seats on lower 2PP - but if marginal seats contain more swing voters than safe ones, that might not be a problem.

[Estrella]

For once, it's not Labor being a factional dumpster fire:

NSW Liberals reject another push to endorse sitting MPs as federal intervention considered

The fate of three key federal government MPs remains in the balance after the New South Wales Liberal party again rejected their endorsements, while the federal executive has given the fractious state division a 10-day deadline to “rectify” its problems or face intervention.

On Thursday the state executive of the NSW Liberal party again rejected a proposal to endorse the preselection of federal ministers Sussan Ley and Alex Hawke, as well as key moderate Trent Zimmerman, amid an ongoing factional war within the party.

After reports on Wednesday that the NSW division may soon become in breach of its constitution, the NSW division agreed on Thursday to request a limited federal intervention that would see the existing state executive reappointed. But when the federal executive, led by the prime minister, Scott Morrison, met on Thursday night, it instead issued a warning to the state executive to endorse the three MPs by 28 February or face a wider takeover.

Liberals have been zooming to the right over the past few years (or decades?), especially in NSW where right-wing factions copied ALP's tried and tested tactic of branch stacking and recruited members en masse from Pentecostal churches. That probably explains in particular Trent Zimmerman's trouble: he's openly gay and recently helped tank Scomo's signature religious freedom bill by supporting a Labor amendment to protect the rights of trans students.

[Estrella]

For once, it's not Labor being a factional dumpster fire:

NSW Liberals reject another push to endorse sitting MPs as federal intervention considered

Some more wonderful PR to start off Liberals' election campaign:

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I voted.

Based on the number of socialists down at the voting booth, I would say Fremantle will stay Labor in 2022.

How does one recognize a socialist?

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Love the honesty of (retired?) Australian politicians. The former director of Victorian Libs on ABC: "It's a teal bath." "It will get worse before it gets worse." "The wheel is turning but the hamster is dead."

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Outside their own heads. the Greens actually have little support from working class Australian voters. Years of refusing to listen to what these voters are saying and lecturing them on how they are wrong (notably on unauthorised immigration), will do that.

They've got more support than the far right but jobs you stan

not from working class Australians.

Even from working class australinans they do

most working class Australians oppose unauthorised immigration by boat, which the Greens support.

"Most" still leaves plenty who don't base their vote on it and vote for the Greens. Contrary to what the Coalition thinks, not every member of the working class is a middle-aged male tradie with a "f/ck off, we're full" sticker on his 4WD. Nurses, teachers, waitresses, aged care workers or cleaning ladies vote too.

[Estrella]

Congrats to Prime Minister Albo, now officially:

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I am shocked.