Australia 2022 Election

[Ebowed]

So are the "teals" basically a reincarnation of the old Australian Democrats?

It's not a bad comparison to make at all. Particularly as the Democrats were also founded by a disaffected "small-l" liberal.

But I think the teals will also share a lot of common ground with the Greens - the Greens gains in Queensland seem to have come via the same type of voters that went teal in NSW and Victoria.

I think the "Teals" are going to be very interesting.  Few people seem willing to make the observation that it may not be an inherently good thing to see the wealthiest parts of the inner cities take on a disproportionate level of leverage and influence within the parliament.  These are already the constituents who are most likely to have their voices heard; a drive through their electorates can tell you that much.  The fascinating and hilarious result in Fowler suggests that this Independent phenomenon need not be limited to the wealthy and well-educated, but that's where the funding predictably went, so that's where the focus lies.

Now, it's true that the Greens have a lot of support from wealthy inner-city voters, but their coalition of students and the working poor helps to keep some of those impulses in check quite a lot better than, I suspect, you will be seeing from these teals or tree tories or whatever you want to call them.

[YL]

At this rate, when it comes to the Coalition, who knows if we're headed for an eventuality of Liberal/National *seat parity*.

There have apparently been some Liberals saying that the Coalition has to split if the Liberals want to survive. Take that with a truckload of salt though.

Is it really the Nationals who are the problem, though?  Looking in from the outside, the Liberals seem to have enough of the sort of culture war politics which alienates the sort of voters who went to the "teal independents" of their own.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Is it possible that a hung parliament would be the best for the climate? I know the Labor climate policies are better (43% vs ScroMo's Kyoto Credit BS) but if Labor has to cooperate with the Teal Independents or the Greens they'd have to go more aggressively after the issue. I remember that happened in 2010-2013.

[CumbrianLefty]

At this rate, when it comes to the Coalition, who knows if we're headed for an eventuality of Liberal/National *seat parity*.

There have apparently been some Liberals saying that the Coalition has to split if the Liberals want to survive. Take that with a truckload of salt though.

Is it really the Nationals who are the problem, though?  Looking in from the outside, the Liberals seem to have enough of the sort of culture war politics which alienates the sort of voters who went to the "teal independents" of their own.

The massive transphobe who lost a very "winnable" seat was a Liberal, no?

[GoTfan]

At this rate, when it comes to the Coalition, who knows if we're headed for an eventuality of Liberal/National *seat parity*.

There have apparently been some Liberals saying that the Coalition has to split if the Liberals want to survive. Take that with a truckload of salt though.

Is it really the Nationals who are the problem, though?  Looking in from the outside, the Liberals seem to have enough of the sort of culture war politics which alienates the sort of voters who went to the "teal independents" of their own.

The Nationals are the reason those moderate Liberals lost their seats. The Teals ran on climate action, and the Liberals have more or less avoided climate policy because they risk ticking off the Nationals.

[brucejoel99]

Looking at results this morning, I've got the following:

Labor: 74 (71 called, plus Lingiari, Macnamara and Richmond where they look in a strong enough position)
Coalition: 54 (52 called plus Cowper and Bass)
Greens: 4 (3 called plus Brisbane)
KAP: 1
CA: 1
Independents: 10!! (Clark, Curtin, Fowler, Goldstein, Indi, Kooyong, Mackellar, North Sydney, Warringah and Wentworth)

Still in doubt: 7

• Bennelong: Labor ahead.
• Deakin: Labor ahead.
• Gilmore: Labor ahead by an absolute whisker. Wouldn't be surprised if it flips at this stage.
• Lyons: Labor ahead. One of the big shocks of the night for me, it will be very tight.
• Menzies: Liberals ahead and I'd be surprised if they didn't retain.
• Moore: Liberals ahead. Not on my radar at all! WA seat so anything could happen here.
• Sturt: Absolute knife-edge. Liberal ahead by less than 100 votes at last count.

So Labor still a good chance of taking a majority, but it will be close.

If Labor doesn't take the majority, is there any chance they'd prefer a coalition with left-leaning teal members over the Greens?

Was discussing this with a mate last night. He thinks it’s a real possibility if Labor want to avoid the “Labor-Green” sledges. I think they’ll happen anyway, but also that many of the teals might want to avoid being accused of keeping Labor in power if they can at all help it, given that most of them come from formerly Liberal seats.

Of course the other option for Labor if they reach 75 seats is relying solely on Andrew Wilkie, who’s more of a straight-up progressive rather than a teal.

What could also help Labor, in any event, is if they could end up getting a teal indy to be named the Speaker of the House.

I can't really see this happening. Of the 10 independents, 9 will be in either their first or second term, meaning they aren't very experienced in the rules and standing orders. Labor will also remember the Slipper debacle well and will hardly be keen to suffer any repeat. Rob Mitchell seems to be the next cab off the rank on Labor's side and I expect he'll be elected Speaker when Parliament comes back.

If Labor winds up on exactly 76 seats, wouldn't there be an issue about their having a majority on the floor? Or is that not typically taken into consideration even though it recently has been in other Westminster systems like, say, BC in 2017?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

they should make Katter speaker for banter.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

they should make Katter speaker for banter.

Speaker Katter will order the bringing in of a crocodile into the chamber if that is what is needed to restore order in the Parliament.

[Pulaski]

Looking at results this morning, I've got the following:

Labor: 74 (71 called, plus Lingiari, Macnamara and Richmond where they look in a strong enough position)
Coalition: 54 (52 called plus Cowper and Bass)
Greens: 4 (3 called plus Brisbane)
KAP: 1
CA: 1
Independents: 10!! (Clark, Curtin, Fowler, Goldstein, Indi, Kooyong, Mackellar, North Sydney, Warringah and Wentworth)

Still in doubt: 7

• Bennelong: Labor ahead.
• Deakin: Labor ahead.
• Gilmore: Labor ahead by an absolute whisker. Wouldn't be surprised if it flips at this stage.
• Lyons: Labor ahead. One of the big shocks of the night for me, it will be very tight.
• Menzies: Liberals ahead and I'd be surprised if they didn't retain.
• Moore: Liberals ahead. Not on my radar at all! WA seat so anything could happen here.
• Sturt: Absolute knife-edge. Liberal ahead by less than 100 votes at last count.

So Labor still a good chance of taking a majority, but it will be close.

If Labor doesn't take the majority, is there any chance they'd prefer a coalition with left-leaning teal members over the Greens?

Was discussing this with a mate last night. He thinks it’s a real possibility if Labor want to avoid the “Labor-Green” sledges. I think they’ll happen anyway, but also that many of the teals might want to avoid being accused of keeping Labor in power if they can at all help it, given that most of them come from formerly Liberal seats.

Of course the other option for Labor if they reach 75 seats is relying solely on Andrew Wilkie, who’s more of a straight-up progressive rather than a teal.

What could also help Labor, in any event, is if they could end up getting a teal indy to be named the Speaker of the House.

I can't really see this happening. Of the 10 independents, 9 will be in either their first or second term, meaning they aren't very experienced in the rules and standing orders. Labor will also remember the Slipper debacle well and will hardly be keen to suffer any repeat. Rob Mitchell seems to be the next cab off the rank on Labor's side and I expect he'll be elected Speaker when Parliament comes back.

If Labor winds up on exactly 76 seats, wouldn't there be an issue about their having a majority on the floor? Or is that not typically taken into consideration even though it recently has been in other Westminster systems like, say, BC in 2017?

The Speaker can cast a tiebreaking vote.

[Pulaski]

ABC have called Lingiari for Labor.

Have Macnamara, Richmond and Bennelong as "likely Labor" for now.

If Labor take all of those plus Lyons then they have 76.

Constance has pulled ahead in Gilmore and I'm pretty comfortable that he'll win it from here.

I'm definitely pulling back Brisbane as that's getting closer and closer for who finishes 2nd.

2PP a smidge over 52-48 Labor. When most of the final polls had 53-47, gotta say they've been pretty much on the money.

[GoTfan]

In case anyone else wanted something to smile about:

Pauline Hanson has lost her Senate seat to the Greens.

[Pulaski]

In case anyone else wanted something to smile about:

Pauline Hanson has lost her Senate seat to the Greens.

Don't get your hopes up too quickly. Apparently she's still in with a decent shout.

[(no subject)]

Outside their own heads. the Greens actually have little support from working class Australian voters. Years of refusing to listen to what these voters are saying and lecturing them on how they are wrong (notably on unauthorised immigration), will do that.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Outside their own heads. the Greens actually have little support from working class Australian voters. Years of refusing to listen to what these voters are saying and lecturing them on how they are wrong (notably on unauthorised immigration), will do that.

They've got more support than the far right but jobs you stan

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Outside their own heads. the Greens actually have little support from working class Australian voters. Years of refusing to listen to what these voters are saying and lecturing them on how they are wrong (notably on unauthorised immigration), will do that.

This is true to an extent, but tonight is the warning for people who overcorrect and find themselves in an anti-green (lower case "g") bubble of their own: you end up in an alternative conservative ecosystem feeding off one another and building your own ivory towers (don't want to bring this up because I know people here are divided and I myself am ambivalent but there was clearly a lockdown derangement syndrome, with people insisting because they despised Daniel Andrews etc. everyone else also hated him). The final analysis of this election is that the coalition has largely maxed out its vote in Queensland; are too cack-handed atm to penetrate the socially conservative ethnic suburbs and have alienated blue-blooded areas they need.

It's worth also noting that none of the Nats seemed to be that hit by independents, with the one challenger being an underperformer (and both PHON and UAP being duds). This is itself a bit of a departure, as the Nats have for quite a while constantly been undermined by little local outfits and indies. Say what you like about Barnaby Joyce, he has apparently been successful in that regard.

[(no subject)]

Outside their own heads. the Greens actually have little support from working class Australian voters. Years of refusing to listen to what these voters are saying and lecturing them on how they are wrong (notably on unauthorised immigration), will do that.

They've got more support than the far right but jobs you stan

not from working class Australians.

[(no subject)]

It's kinda like when a few thousand turn up at some leftist demo in Melbourne is trumpeted as a great success by the organisers - a few thousand, in a city with a population of over 4 million?

1970s style demos don't work any more.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Outside their own heads. the Greens actually have little support from working class Australian voters. Years of refusing to listen to what these voters are saying and lecturing them on how they are wrong (notably on unauthorised immigration), will do that.

They've got more support than the far right but jobs you stan

not from working class Australians.

Even from working class australinans they do

[(no subject)]

Outside their own heads. the Greens actually have little support from working class Australian voters. Years of refusing to listen to what these voters are saying and lecturing them on how they are wrong (notably on unauthorised immigration), will do that.

They've got more support than the far right but jobs you stan

not from working class Australians.

Even from working class australinans they do

most working class Australians oppose unauthorised immigration by boat, which the Greens support.

[Estrella]

Outside their own heads. the Greens actually have little support from working class Australian voters. Years of refusing to listen to what these voters are saying and lecturing them on how they are wrong (notably on unauthorised immigration), will do that.

They've got more support than the far right but jobs you stan

not from working class Australians.

Even from working class australinans they do

most working class Australians oppose unauthorised immigration by boat, which the Greens support.

"Most" still leaves plenty who don't base their vote on it and vote for the Greens. Contrary to what the Coalition thinks, not every member of the working class is a middle-aged male tradie with a "f/ck off, we're full" sticker on his 4WD. Nurses, teachers, waitresses, aged care workers or cleaning ladies vote too.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Outside their own heads. the Greens actually have little support from working class Australian voters. Years of refusing to listen to what these voters are saying and lecturing them on how they are wrong (notably on unauthorised immigration), will do that.

They've got more support than the far right but jobs you stan

not from working class Australians.

Even from working class australinans they do

most working class Australians oppose unauthorised immigration by boat, which the Greens support.

"Most" still leaves plenty who don't base their vote on it and vote for the Greens. Contrary to what the Coalition thinks, not every member of the working class is a middle-aged male tradie with a "f/ck off, we're full" sticker on his 4WD. Nurses, teachers, waitresses, aged care workers or cleaning ladies vote too.

This is a huge problem in American analysis of Obama->Trump voters too. There is a difference between holding this or that socioculturally conservative view and prioritizing it over other concerns when one votes.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Outside their own heads. the Greens actually have little support from working class Australian voters. Years of refusing to listen to what these voters are saying and lecturing them on how they are wrong (notably on unauthorised immigration), will do that.

They've got more support than the far right but jobs you stan

not from working class Australians.

Even from working class australinans they do

most working class Australians oppose unauthorised immigration by boat, which the Greens support.

Most also don't want their house to catch on fire.

[Estrella]

Congrats to Prime Minister Albo, now officially:

[Meclazine for Israel]

they should make Katter speaker for banter.

Speaker Katter will order the bringing in of a crocodile into the chamber if that is what is needed to restore order in the Parliament.

Careful what you wish for....

Bob Katter Speaks

https://youtu.be/DbZU2MkPxU8

[brucejoel99]

Congrats to Prime Minister Albo, now officially:

Great, now Prime Ministers Avenue is 3 PMs behind schedule.