Australia 2022 Election

[brucejoel99]

He lasted so long because of the Liberal partyroom rule changes that he made right after coup-ing Turnbull to prevent future coups: because the new rule is that 2/3rds of the partyroom vote is required to trigger a spill motion when the Libs are in government & the leader had previously led the party to victory at an election (i.e., a rule that didn't apply to ScoMo when he first introduced them, but that only came into effect after he & the Libs won in 2019), it became very unlikely that any member of the federal Lib caucus would successfully be able to coup ScoMo before this election since, as of right now, it'd take 61 out of the 91 members of the federal Lib caucus to trigger a spill, although the old "simple majority of the party room" rules can always still apply if such a simple majority is willing to just go nuclear on ScoMo's rules to start off a coup. As we can see, however, no such coup was ever instigated by the time that ScoMo had the G.G. call this election.

[brucejoel99]

Albo has tested positive for COVID and going into isolation for the next week. Not sure how this will affect the election, given the fact that campaigns have become increasingly presidential in the last 30-odd years.

Hopefully for the better if Labor is smart & uses the next week to highlight the frontbench stars like Chalmers & Wong.

[brucejoel99]

Albo has tested positive for COVID and going into isolation for the next week. Not sure how this will affect the election, given the fact that campaigns have become increasingly presidential in the last 30-odd years.

Hopefully for the better if Labor is smart & uses the next week to highlight the frontbench stars like Chalmers & Wong.

I must be one of the few that’s underwhelmed by Chalmers. He’s a likely future leader but just comes across as very bland and mechanic.

She’s probably some way off it, but if the next leader has to be from the Right, then Clare O’Neil is my pick. She’s currently the shadow minister for aged care and presumably is a big player behind the party’s strategy/policy in this area. Very impressive.

She's very good (how can't you be when you're a Fulbright scholar?), if in need of some more time in the political limelight.

If nothing else, Chalmers is an undeniable asset for Labor in Queensland, particularly since he's somehow mastered the art of presenting himself on behalf of Labor as a sensible, well-spoken pragmatist. If anything, as far as campaigning in Queensland is concerned, Labor should be campaigning by treating him as the realist Keating to Albo's idealist Hawke, if only just for those Queenslanders who'll never be able to bring themselves to vote for somebody other than "one of their own" (see: Kevin '07), especially when they honestly hate nothing more than condescending out-of-staters perceived to be telling them what's good for them (which is arguably, if not exactly what lost Shorten's Labor the last election 3 years ago).

[brucejoel99]

Some food-for-thought for those interested in this election: only 7 years out of the last 30 have seen the ALP govern with a majority; &, apart from the Hawke-Keating years, the ALP has held power only twice since Curtin/Chifley: Gough Whitlam's 1-term government in the '70s that never had the Senate on its side, & the Rudd-Gillard years, obviously, but that's just 6 years of non-Hawke/Keating majority ALP government since 1949, & really only 3 years if counting Senate numbers too. Massive ideological differences aside, you could say that the Liberals are both Canada & Australia's natural governing party.

[brucejoel99]

On a uniform swing Labor needs 51.8% to win a majority. So it is a very close one, doing slightly worse than the polling and ending up on 51% likely won't be good enough for a majority. Scott Morrison obviously is quite far from winning another majority of his own.

Couldn't the Libs theoretically retain a majority government on, like, 48-52 if the increase in ALP support is concentrated enough in the inner cities? Granted, I'm pretty sure that'd require everything going right for them (i.e., a disastrous polling failure worse than 2019's resulting in the largest city/suburban split in Australian history) to work, but still, it doesn't seem like an impossibility, esp. in the event that the expected swings in some seats don't materialize & the indy surge falls flat.

[brucejoel99]

On a uniform swing Labor needs 51.8% to win a majority. So it is a very close one, doing slightly worse than the polling and ending up on 51% likely won't be good enough for a majority. Scott Morrison obviously is quite far from winning another majority of his own.

Couldn't the Libs theoretically retain a majority government on, like, 48-52 if the increase in ALP support is concentrated enough in the inner cities? Granted, I'm pretty sure that'd require everything going right for them (i.e., a disastrous polling failure worse than 2019's resulting in the largest city/suburban split in Australian history) to work, but still, it doesn't seem like an impossibility, esp. in the event that the expected swings in some seats don't materialize & the indy surge falls flat.

They're notionally on 76 seats at the moment, and would be under that with a 0.4% uniform swing. I guess they could get lucky in the ultra marginals but they just can't afford a 3-4% swing. Maybe if they can bring the 2PP to a tie, but it's just hard to see. Plus, having a swing concentrated in urban areas would be good for the independents. While some of those seats are relatively safe, seats like Wentworth and then Kooyong are already within striking distance.

Fair, but after the last few Australian elections, I don't discount the likelihood that enough of the Australian people would say that they care about the environment or hospital funding or whatever if a microphone were stuck in their face, only to then just vote with greed or hate in the privacy of their little cardboard cubicle with the stubby little pencil that they wield.

[brucejoel99]

I'll still predict a Labor win with anywhere between 76 & 85 seats, though.

[brucejoel99]

So apparently the Liberals think the 2PP is 53-47 their way.....

Although if the Libs thought they would win I don't think they'd be doing the whole "boat intercepted" story.....

inb4 it's revealed to be the dirtiest trick played in Australian politics since the Tampa affair:

https://twitter.com/KarenMMiddleton/status/1527890813149007872

[brucejoel99]

A PSA for Australian-left posters: don't wear "Liberal tears" merchandise here in the U.S. or we'll think you're a Trumpist

[brucejoel99]

In all seriousness, it really is quite something to see Higgins falling to Labour. Even though it high on their target list, it was the seat held by Harold Holt, John Gorton, and Peter Costello.

That's what happens when the Libs turn so right & away from the center that Labor is now closer to Menzies than the Libs.

[brucejoel99]

Apparently the Palmer Vanity Project is polling less that Legalise Cannabis Australia.

Clive: *spends billions in 2019*
Also Clive: *wins no seats*
Craig: *leaves the Libs for Clive*
Clive: *spends billions again*
Clive & Craig: *lose their one seat to the Libs*

[brucejoel99]

Looking at results this morning, I've got the following:

Labor: 74 (71 called, plus Lingiari, Macnamara and Richmond where they look in a strong enough position)
Coalition: 54 (52 called plus Cowper and Bass)
Greens: 4 (3 called plus Brisbane)
KAP: 1
CA: 1
Independents: 10!! (Clark, Curtin, Fowler, Goldstein, Indi, Kooyong, Mackellar, North Sydney, Warringah and Wentworth)

Still in doubt: 7

• Bennelong: Labor ahead.
• Deakin: Labor ahead.
• Gilmore: Labor ahead by an absolute whisker. Wouldn't be surprised if it flips at this stage.
• Lyons: Labor ahead. One of the big shocks of the night for me, it will be very tight.
• Menzies: Liberals ahead and I'd be surprised if they didn't retain.
• Moore: Liberals ahead. Not on my radar at all! WA seat so anything could happen here.
• Sturt: Absolute knife-edge. Liberal ahead by less than 100 votes at last count.

So Labor still a good chance of taking a majority, but it will be close.

If Labor doesn't take the majority, is there any chance they'd prefer a coalition with left-leaning teal members over the Greens?

Was discussing this with a mate last night. He thinks it’s a real possibility if Labor want to avoid the “Labor-Green” sledges. I think they’ll happen anyway, but also that many of the teals might want to avoid being accused of keeping Labor in power if they can at all help it, given that most of them come from formerly Liberal seats.

Of course the other option for Labor if they reach 75 seats is relying solely on Andrew Wilkie, who’s more of a straight-up progressive rather than a teal.

What could also help Labor, in any event, is if they could end up getting a teal indy to be named the Speaker of the House.

[brucejoel99]

Looking at results this morning, I've got the following:

Labor: 74 (71 called, plus Lingiari, Macnamara and Richmond where they look in a strong enough position)
Coalition: 54 (52 called plus Cowper and Bass)
Greens: 4 (3 called plus Brisbane)
KAP: 1
CA: 1
Independents: 10!! (Clark, Curtin, Fowler, Goldstein, Indi, Kooyong, Mackellar, North Sydney, Warringah and Wentworth)

Still in doubt: 7

• Bennelong: Labor ahead.
• Deakin: Labor ahead.
• Gilmore: Labor ahead by an absolute whisker. Wouldn't be surprised if it flips at this stage.
• Lyons: Labor ahead. One of the big shocks of the night for me, it will be very tight.
• Menzies: Liberals ahead and I'd be surprised if they didn't retain.
• Moore: Liberals ahead. Not on my radar at all! WA seat so anything could happen here.
• Sturt: Absolute knife-edge. Liberal ahead by less than 100 votes at last count.

So Labor still a good chance of taking a majority, but it will be close.

If Labor doesn't take the majority, is there any chance they'd prefer a coalition with left-leaning teal members over the Greens?

Was discussing this with a mate last night. He thinks it’s a real possibility if Labor want to avoid the “Labor-Green” sledges. I think they’ll happen anyway, but also that many of the teals might want to avoid being accused of keeping Labor in power if they can at all help it, given that most of them come from formerly Liberal seats.

Of course the other option for Labor if they reach 75 seats is relying solely on Andrew Wilkie, who’s more of a straight-up progressive rather than a teal.

What could also help Labor, in any event, is if they could end up getting a teal indy to be named the Speaker of the House.

I can't really see this happening. Of the 10 independents, 9 will be in either their first or second term, meaning they aren't very experienced in the rules and standing orders. Labor will also remember the Slipper debacle well and will hardly be keen to suffer any repeat. Rob Mitchell seems to be the next cab off the rank on Labor's side and I expect he'll be elected Speaker when Parliament comes back.

If Labor winds up on exactly 76 seats, wouldn't there be an issue about their having a majority on the floor? Or is that not typically taken into consideration even though it recently has been in other Westminster systems like, say, BC in 2017?

[brucejoel99]

Congrats to Prime Minister Albo, now officially:

Great, now Prime Ministers Avenue is 3 PMs behind schedule.

[brucejoel99]

To ignore Slugg's derailing of the thread, can we please discuss that Morrison literally instructed Brder Force to reveal the boat turnback on the day of the election?!

That must be some violation of the law, surely. I mean, ScoMo and the Liberals haven't held the law in much regard for the last three years, but this takes the cake.

I don't think that it is, annoying though that might be. It's disgusting for sure, & the Reps can definitely vote to hold him in contempt, but he technically only violated a political convention rather than any actual concrete laws that are on the books.

[brucejoel99]

Brisbane has been called for the Greens, meaning that Stephen Bates will be the party's 4th Rep. in the next Parliament (& also meaning that the Greens have now taken more seats previously held by the Libs than Labor; seriously, imagine telling somebody a few years ago that not only would QLD elect a Greens MP, but 3 more than Victoria, lol). I presume that it'll be good to have him there; he's a "normal" person, as a renting retail worker, & Parliament could probably use more of them.

As for the ALP's 76th seat:

https://twitter.com/AntonyGreenElec/status/1530410212896583680
Of course, Deakin & Gilmore are still up for grabs by Labor - they're currently within 656 & 215 votes, respectively - & the remaining absentee/postal votes could very easily swing either way; I'd wager that Labor must be close to even money to hold Gilmore, but the Libs are more likely to hold Deakin. So, with 77 seats minus Speaker Rob Mitchell, they'd have an exact majority in the House & wouldn't be able to afford the loss of a single Labor Rep.'s vote on policy, although Albo has already secured commitments from Wilkie, Haines, Steggall, Sharkie, & Bob Katter himself that they'll support passage of supply & won't support any no-confidence motions against the government, obviously rendering them safe on that front.

Granted, unless it's supremely bad legislation, Labor will always have at least 1 crossbencher voting for their policies anyway, even if they do lose a vote thanks to the Speaker; the Senate is where the real drama is gonna happen, since they'll obviously still have to deal with the Greens & Pocock to get anything done there, especially since Dutton is the new Lib leader, given that an actively hostile opposition obviously inherently necessitates cooperation with the Greens, no matter that a sensible LNP would actually work with Labor right now, but hey, it's not like they're needed anyway because it's not 2007 anymore. In any event, Albo needs to drop this "I don't do deals with the Greens" nonsense because Labor clearly needs to swallow their pride & work with the Greens to pass progressive policies because, while the 2010 minority government may have been legislatively successful, they need to make sure that the public is actually on-board this time.

[brucejoel99]

In case anyone else wanted something to smile about:

Pauline Hanson has lost her Senate seat to the Greens.

Don't get your hopes up too quickly. Apparently she's still in with a decent shout.

So for an update, it's now looking as though Pauline Hanson will indeed be returned to the Senate after all; her fiercest rivals in the race for QLD's final Senate seat have been the LNP, which has already claimed 2 of the state's 6 seats, & Legalise Cannabis, but preference analysis thus far has been indicating that she's likely to come out ahead in the end :/

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/AntonyGreenElec/status/1530410212896583680

How likely are the Liberals to make up a 500 vote gap with 3k postal votes in a 3-way marginal?

The Libs can't win. Either they're 3rd & their preferences elect Labor over the Greens; they're 2nd & preferences from whichever of Labor & the Green finish 3rd will flow to the 1st-place party, electing them over the Libs; or even if they claim the #1 spot on 3CP, preferences from whichever of Labor & the Green finish 3rd will just flow to the 2nd-place party, electing them over the Libs.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/AntonyGreenElec/status/1530410212896583680

How likely are the Liberals to make up a 500 vote gap with 3k postal votes in a 3-way marginal?

The Libs can't win

Yes, but that wasn't quite the question I asked

In that case, they've since taken a 50-vote 3CP lead, but that's rather meaningless for them as anything other than a mere statistic. As for the count, they're now down to just 2K ballots left in Macnamara.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/AntonyGreenElec/status/1530410212896583680

How likely are the Liberals to make up a 500 vote gap with 3k postal votes in a 3-way marginal?

The Libs can't win

Yes, but that wasn't quite the question I asked

In that case, they've since taken a 50-vote 3CP lead, but that's rather meaningless for them as anything other than a mere statistic. As for the count, they're now down to just 2K ballots left in Macnamara.

There’s at least 6k votes minimum left to be counted in Macnamara. No clue where you’ve got 2k from, perhaps votes counted as primaries but not yet as 3cp?

3K was from Antony Green saying yesterday that there were only 3K postals left for the 3CP, & 2K today is from #AusPol.

[brucejoel99]

Deakin is now officially a likely Liberal hold but with Labor already likely in Macnamara(!), it's very good news for Labor that it's now ahead in Gilmore thanks to absentee votes & pre-poll declarations, but only by 142 votes, so counting of <2K (if #AusPol is correct ) continues, & christ, it'll be a nail-bitingly close one. There'll also be an automatic recount if the final margin is 100 or less. Lord knows that Labor will be very happy if they can get to 77, making the Speaker irrelevant.

[brucejoel99]

So if I'm not mistaken the ALP now not only has a majority government federally, but they are also the government in almost all the states and territories. I think the last powerbase the coalition has is the state government in NSW - normally, you would expect it would be Labor's "turn" to win back power in NSW after a long period of Coalition rule - plus i hear the Liberal Premier there is some rightwing Catholic nutbar cut form the same cloth as Tony Abbott - but then again by the time the next NSW election rolls around the honeymoon for the Albanese government will likely be over and people may not want the ALP in power at every single level.

That's Dominic Perrottet, & yes, he does always look like a high school economics teacher who just stepped out of a sauna. Regarding the NSW Libs, the moderates therein are the most powerful faction right now, but they basically have a truce with the right, hence Perrottet being Premier; said truce is also one on social issues, as neither faction has the numbers to pass legislation that the other would strongly oppose, so the NSW government basically tries to actively avoid significant social controversies, as one happening might just be the one that could tear the party apart. As for the election, it's still a long way's off, being 10 months away, so anything can still happen, but one thing's for sure: Perrottet will never have the personal approvals that his predecessor, Gladys Berejiklian, had; for all of her faults, she came across so, so much better than her Treasurer that a majority of NSW voters were still satisfied with her job performance & even remained sympathetic to her in the aftermath of her resignation that was literally induced by a corruption scandal. Plus, Labor's Chris Minns seems good, & Perrottet's Libs certainly have some nerve when they do things like tell Albo that NSW hospital standards are his problem when Labor has been both out-of-power in NSW for over a decade & federally for nearly as long.

[brucejoel99]

Isn't the Gilmore call a bit premature? Labor is leading by 0.2 with about 91% counted, so the Coalition would only need to win what's left by 2 points or so. Do we have reason to believe the remaining batch will is favorable to Labor?

While the bolded technically remains a possibility, there are only ~1K votes left to count in Gilmore right now anyway, & at least Antony Green at the ABC uses stats, trends, & math to produce a 99% confidence level in every electorate before he even calls them, so he clearly views the odds of the remaining ballots splitting Liberal enough to close Constance's gap in Gilmore as highly unlikely. He did a 30+ min. talk in Jan. about how he does it all & it was posted to YouTube, if curious:

[brucejoel99]

Can anyone explain to me who the crossbenchers are and why the support the new Labour guvernement?! For example Ketter?! Why is a rightwinger as he is supporting Labour?!

Katter isn't as simple as being on the right or the left. Economically, he sees more eye-to-eye with Labor than the Coalition, but social views are another matter entirely. He's just an agrarian, which is what the Nats pretend that they are but aren't. Now, maybe he just knew that he couldn't get anywhere with the Libs & so supported Labor to try & squeeze what he could from them, but by his own word, he's said a few times that he has a great relationship with Albo & likes him personally.

Andrew Wilkie, Rebekah Sharkie, Helen Haines, & Zali Steggall are assorted independents, yes (Wilkie sides with the Greens, his former party, ~90% & Labor 80-90% of the time; Sharkie - a Xenophon indy when he was relevant - plus Haines & Steggall vote with each other >90% of the time, & with Labor & the Greens ~60-70% of the time), but otherwise just your normal, relatively responsible Reps. who are no more motivated by ego than any other given politician & actually are probably better representatives of their divisions who are better-motivated to do well for them than major-party Reps.

None of the 6 elected teal indies, the 4 Greens, or Dai Le were involved in Labor's proactive C&S negotiations. The Greens' leader, Rep. Adam Bandt, tried to strike policy deals for his caucus of 4 in the House, but Albo rejected talks, noting that he'd already secured C&S (ofc, Labor needs to play ball soon to get Senate wins, which are only possible with the Greens).

Most of the teal indies, who ousted a sh*tton of Libs, tend to be more economically conservative (reminiscent of classic Liberalism, which is what gave the Libs their name), but socially or just environmentally more progressive, hence their doing so well, since historically urban Lib voters punished the party for its social drift to the right & inaction on the climate. Of them, I've thought that Monique Ryan has given off the vibe of being their most sympathetic to the plight of the less-fortunate & the working-class, but only time will tell via their voting records, so we'll know more ~18 months from now. (The Libs are also now happy that Labor is forming a majority government, although still obviously disappointed that they themselves lost, because they think that it'll marginalize the teal indies & limit their ability to entrench holds on formerly-Lib seats, which is stupid because, if anything, not getting into bed with Albo's government decreases the likelihood of negative press for the teals, but then again, name a more correlated duo than Peter Dutton's high-profile & Lib stupidity.)

As for Dai Le, she's a former Lib who called the teals "fake independents," & a multitude of factors contributed to her Fowler win: she's a popular city councillor there, she says a lot of pro-working class stuff & is kinda economically left-wing but socially conservative (so, the opposite of a teal), & sad ALP infighting favoring Keneally over Tu Le, who would've won.

[brucejoel99]

How easy of a ride will Labour get in the Senate? Getting the support of the Greens and David Pocock for socially liberal legislation seems very achievable, but the latter doesn’t seem to have talked much about his economic views (though it’s not like Labor have a markedly left wing agenda). Jacqui Lambie seems kinda left wing (or at least ‘populist’), would she be a reasonably reliable person to negotiate with?

He talked a lot about housing avaliability (and his only tweet about the new Cabinet was expressing satisfaction that Housing is now a Cabinet position).

He also talked about childcare & ensuring that corporations don't avoid paying their fair share of taxes, too, IIRC. Really, his whole pitch was basically that he wasn't born in Canberra, but he lives there, genuinely loves it, & wants to be better representing its interests than his predecessor, Zed Seselja's god-awful job of doing so, & so would see his primary duty in-office as representing the ACT & its interests to the best of his ability. The ACT is rather progressive as a whole, & he's certainly no Marx, but he's solidly socially progressive & economically in-line with the majority of the new Parliament, with a large focus on supporting local business & engaging with locals on their matters, & not being just another politician.

Lambie has a few differences with Labor & the Greens, but it's not a bad mix. Except for votes against renewables, she's a heterodox centrist populist who's basically a well-meaning person from the Tas Country without a pure, Xenophonian ego.

And with Albo announcing his Ministry, I think we can officially declare the election season over.

Among the appointments is Matt Thistlethwaite, who has been made Assistant Minister for the Republic!

What is the Assistant Minister for the Republic? Why does Australia even have a position like that, it isn't even a republic.

His mission in the new post is to restart the national discussion with the public about moving towards becoming a republic & having an Australian head of state, but they've already conceded that ditching the Monarchy isn't a 1st-term priority like the Indigenous Voice to Parliament is. Serious moves toward a republic aren't really expected 'til you-know-what happens.