Australia 2022 Election

[Pulaski]

If nothing else, this election has sent a resounding verdict to the major parties on climate change. I'm hopeful that an Albanese Labor government will join the international community in trying to drastically curb carbon emissions.

I certainly got individual seats very wrong, and underestimated the teal independents, but 75 seats for Labor looks very close to how things will end up. I'll take that.

[Talleyrand]

WA is really something else. Looks like ALP will win 53-54% of the vote (they haven't won the 2PP since 1987). 9 ALP seats, 4 Libs, and 1 Teal. Another seat, Moore, is on a knife edge between the ALP and Libs.

ALP also on track to win a 3rd Senate seat in the stage, so it may be 3 ALP, 1 GRN, and 2 Libs.

Who would have thought 2 years ago that WA would be the ALP's strongest state in a federal election?

Another highlight is the extraordinary Greens performance in Brisbane. Looks like they'll take Brisbane itself and Ryan off the LNP, and defeat the ALP in Griffith (Rudd's old seat), boosting their lower house representation from 1 to 4.

[Mike88]

Don't know if someone wrote about this but, the remaining 37%, of votes still to be counted, are basically postal votes, right? Do they have a tendency to lean ALP or LNP?

[GoTfan]

Anyone checked on Rupert?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

cracking up at Keneally struggling to win Fowler against an independent. What a cursed career she has had.

The Alenka Bratusek of Australian politics imo.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

A picture says a thousand words.

The ABC has condemned Speersy to a shadow realm with nothing but a big board to keep him company?

[brucejoel99]

A PSA for Australian-left posters: don't wear "Liberal tears" merchandise here in the U.S. or we'll think you're a Trumpist

[Vosem]

Rooting for an ALP-led government but also the largest crossbench possible

Hell yeah!

particularly Campbell Newman for the Senate.

Well, this didn't work out. 2 Coalition, 1 Labor, 1 Green looks absolutely certain in QLD, with the second Labor seat very very likely and then a contest for the last seat between Pauline Hanson and the Legalize Cannabis party, who seem to have over-performed basically everywhere. Given the abolition of directed preferences (RIP Sports and Motoring parties, FFs) and Hanson's high name recognition 2 LNP, 2 Labor, 1 Green, 1 One Nation looks pretty solid, though I guess there're still lots of votes to be counted.

[Mike88]

Update:

With 12 seats in doubt, but according to the current trend, the seat tally is as follows:

79 Labor
56 Coalition
  4 Greens
  1 Katter
11 Independents

Bennelong, Deakin, Gilmore and Lyons are trending Labor now, while Menzis is still trending for the Coalition.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I forgot about this due to our convention. Good to see!

BTW I was pleased to see the Sydney Opera House is in a Labour seat because if I ever visited Australia I'd be trying to stay out of Liberal seats.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

ABC suggesting that Labor getting better swings with Chinese language speakers. Not a surprise but interesting to see-if it plays out.

Another swing in Chinese voters towards the left, similar to the collapse of the Canadian Tories in the Canadian election.  I wonder if some of this is to do with age churn as younger more left-wing Chinese voters come into the electorate.

That would be consistent with what’s happened in the US and Canada. Curious what if any swings there were with other Eastern Asian or subcontinental groups.

[Хahar 🤔]

I forgot about this due to our convention. Good to see!

BTW I was pleased to see the Sydney Opera House is in a Labour seat because if I ever visited Australia I'd be trying to stay out of Liberal seats.

Well, actually, it's in a Labor seat.

[Crumpets]

As an outsider, it's interesting to see how much environmentalism was a make-or-break of this election for two reasons: One, because Australian COVID policies have become such a hot issue outside the country. And two, because I think Australian politics are generally seen as still the closest thing to US politics outside the US, and we still really haven't had anything like this in terms of climate mobilization. Hopefully Australia is a leading indicator and not an exception.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I forgot about this due to our convention. Good to see!

BTW I was pleased to see the Sydney Opera House is in a Labour seat because if I ever visited Australia I'd be trying to stay out of Liberal seats.

sadly if you want to go to the Great Barrier Reef you'd probably have to go through Cairns, which was carried by the LNP in that very large electorate that also includes the Cape York Peninsula, (although it is held by the Queensland Labor Party at a state level, if that would alleviate your concern).

Other famous Australian tourist traps you could visit: Bondi Beach is in the bougie Wentworth (Turnbull's old seat, won by an indie in a forewarning for the teal phenomena, and won back by a separate Teal tonight); Uluru is in Lingiari (ALP won despite its popular incumbent standing down), Blue Mountains (ALP) and Kangaroo Island (held by a former Xenephon indy). May be screwed if you want to go, say, the Kimberley or the nice parts of Tasmania.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

As an outsider, it's interesting to see how much environmentalism was a make-or-break of this election for two reasons: One, because Australian COVID policies have become such a hot issue outside the country. And two, because I think Australian politics are generally seen as still the closest thing to US politics outside the US, and we still really haven't had anything like this in terms of climate mobilization. Hopefully Australia is a leading indicator and not an exception.

Sadly this was also a theme the last time the ALP won power in 2007, but they were quickly stymied with the practicalities of implementing the carbon tax.

[Logical]

Late deciders broke for Liberals but it wasn't enough.
https://twitter.com/unusual_aussie/status/1528044094957944833

[Skill and Chance]

As an outsider, it's interesting to see how much environmentalism was a make-or-break of this election for two reasons: One, because Australian COVID policies have become such a hot issue outside the country. And two, because I think Australian politics are generally seen as still the closest thing to US politics outside the US, and we still really haven't had anything like this in terms of climate mobilization. Hopefully Australia is a leading indicator and not an exception.

I think this relationship has broken down since the Australian right went hard COVID hawk.

[cp]

Are the leads in the seats in doubt notional or pretty much a sure thing?

Alternatively: what's the likelihood of Labor still needing Green/crossbench support for a majority?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Noticed that Dickson has moved to "In Doubt". Tbh even though it would basically leave the Liberals decapitated, it may help the party to not be led by Dutton, who is a far less credible leader-in-waiting than Josh would have been.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Are the leads in the seats in doubt notional or pretty much a sure thing?

Alternatively: what's the likelihood of Labor still needing Green/crossbench support for a majority?

I'm pretty sure anything that hasn't been called could conceivably go either way.

It's hard to imagine Labor doesn't hit 76 seats, but the majority will probably be narrow enough that most of the crossbench being left-leaning will still be important to their ability to govern robustly.

[Logical]

Noticed that Dickson has moved to "In Doubt". Tbh even though it would basically leave the Liberals decapitated, it may help the party to not be led by Dutton, who is a far less credible leader-in-waiting than Josh would have been.

The egghead will send the Coalition under 50 seats if he becomes leader so I can't wait.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Are the leads in the seats in doubt notional or pretty much a sure thing?

Alternatively: what's the likelihood of Labor still needing Green/crossbench support for a majority?

I'm pretty sure anything that hasn't been called could conceivably go either way.

Yes - and it can sometimes be the case that seats that have been called have to be un-called: this has already happened for Bass. Things always then vary a bit, but a vague indicator at this stage is just momentum: if a particular party keeps getting a little better at each update, that's generally (if not always) a good sign for them.

It's hard to imagine Labor doesn't hit 76 seats, but the majority will probably be narrow enough that most of the crossbench being left-leaning will still be important to their ability to govern robustly.

It would be useful if they rarely need the votes of the LibDems Teale Independents, as the less that they're associated with Labor, the more likely they are to continue to be a dangerous nuisance for the Coalition next time round.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Worth noting that the Senate looks a lot nicer for the ALP than Rudd's 2007 upper house, with ALP+Greens+ACT left-independent probably taking a majority.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Worth noting that the Senate looks a lot nicer for the ALP than Rudd's 2007 upper house, with ALP+Greens+ACT left-independent probably taking a majority.

That is useful given that the new government will need to notch up a few concrete policy wins fairly quickly. Pretty clear that the electorate is still a little leery of Labor after the unfortunate experience of the last Labor government and that had Morrison not managed to hilariously meme himself into committing unwitting electoral suicide, the 'mmm not sure' factor would have caused them to fall short again.

[LAB-LIB]

I have to say, I'm pretty shocked considering how relatable ScoMo looked playing "April Sun in Cuba" on the ukulele.

In all seriousness, it really is quite something to see Higgins falling to Labor. Even though it high on their target list, it was the seat held by Harold Holt, John Gorton, and Peter Costello.