Australia 2022 Election

[(no subject)]

I live in Adam Bandt's electorate. He's a windbag and an idiot.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I live in Adam Bandt's electorate. He's a windbag and an idiot.

That makes two of you then.

[GoTfan]

To ignore Slugg's derailing of the thread, can we please discuss that Morrison literally instructed Brder Force to reveal the boat turnback on the day of the election?!

That must be some violation of the law, surely. I mean, ScoMo and the Liberals haven't held the law in much regard for the last three years, but this takes the cake.

[brucejoel99]

To ignore Slugg's derailing of the thread, can we please discuss that Morrison literally instructed Brder Force to reveal the boat turnback on the day of the election?!

That must be some violation of the law, surely. I mean, ScoMo and the Liberals haven't held the law in much regard for the last three years, but this takes the cake.

I don't think that it is, annoying though that might be. It's disgusting for sure, & the Reps can definitely vote to hold him in contempt, but he technically only violated a political convention rather than any actual concrete laws that are on the books.

[brucejoel99]

Brisbane has been called for the Greens, meaning that Stephen Bates will be the party's 4th Rep. in the next Parliament (& also meaning that the Greens have now taken more seats previously held by the Libs than Labor; seriously, imagine telling somebody a few years ago that not only would QLD elect a Greens MP, but 3 more than Victoria, lol). I presume that it'll be good to have him there; he's a "normal" person, as a renting retail worker, & Parliament could probably use more of them.

As for the ALP's 76th seat:

https://twitter.com/AntonyGreenElec/status/1530410212896583680
Of course, Deakin & Gilmore are still up for grabs by Labor - they're currently within 656 & 215 votes, respectively - & the remaining absentee/postal votes could very easily swing either way; I'd wager that Labor must be close to even money to hold Gilmore, but the Libs are more likely to hold Deakin. So, with 77 seats minus Speaker Rob Mitchell, they'd have an exact majority in the House & wouldn't be able to afford the loss of a single Labor Rep.'s vote on policy, although Albo has already secured commitments from Wilkie, Haines, Steggall, Sharkie, & Bob Katter himself that they'll support passage of supply & won't support any no-confidence motions against the government, obviously rendering them safe on that front.

Granted, unless it's supremely bad legislation, Labor will always have at least 1 crossbencher voting for their policies anyway, even if they do lose a vote thanks to the Speaker; the Senate is where the real drama is gonna happen, since they'll obviously still have to deal with the Greens & Pocock to get anything done there, especially since Dutton is the new Lib leader, given that an actively hostile opposition obviously inherently necessitates cooperation with the Greens, no matter that a sensible LNP would actually work with Labor right now, but hey, it's not like they're needed anyway because it's not 2007 anymore. In any event, Albo needs to drop this "I don't do deals with the Greens" nonsense because Labor clearly needs to swallow their pride & work with the Greens to pass progressive policies because, while the 2010 minority government may have been legislatively successful, they need to make sure that the public is actually on-board this time.

[brucejoel99]

In case anyone else wanted something to smile about:

Pauline Hanson has lost her Senate seat to the Greens.

Don't get your hopes up too quickly. Apparently she's still in with a decent shout.

So for an update, it's now looking as though Pauline Hanson will indeed be returned to the Senate after all; her fiercest rivals in the race for QLD's final Senate seat have been the LNP, which has already claimed 2 of the state's 6 seats, & Legalise Cannabis, but preference analysis thus far has been indicating that she's likely to come out ahead in the end :/

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Has anyone commented that it was strange for Newman to be running on the libertarian platform, given my major memory of his premiership was a particularly intense and authoritarian law and order campaign targeted at biker gangs?

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/AntonyGreenElec/status/1530410212896583680

How likely are the Liberals to make up a 500 vote gap with 3k postal votes in a 3-way marginal?

[GoTfan]

Has anyone commented that it was strange for Newman to be running on the libertarian platform, given my major memory of his premiership was a particularly intense and authoritarian law and order campaign targeted at biker gangs?

Newman's the sort of man who's never met a populist bandwagon he doesn't like, and will flip his beliefs based on what he thinks is best for him to get into office.

[DL]

Has anyone calculated what the seat count would have been in Australia if there was no preferential ballot and it was pure FPTP like in the UK or Canada?

[YL]

Has anyone calculated what the seat count would have been in Australia if there was no preferential ballot and it was pure FPTP like in the UK or Canada?

It's not easy, because you can't just assume that people's first preference votes would become their only preference votes.  I assume that in practice a lot of first preference votes for parties out of contention would have instead been tactical votes, but you'd have to estimate the extent to which that would happen.

[DL]

Has anyone calculated what the seat count would have been in Australia if there was no preferential ballot and it was pure FPTP like in the UK or Canada?

It's not easy, because you can't just assume that people's first preference votes would become their only preference votes.  I assume that in practice a lot of first preference votes for parties out of contention would have instead been tactical votes, but you'd have to estimate the extent to which that would happen.

I realize that if you change system people may vote differently - though in Canada having pure FPTP doesn't prevent over 30% of people from voting for smaller parties! I just want to know how many seats each party would have won last week in Australia if we just counted who led on first preferences. Period.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/AntonyGreenElec/status/1530410212896583680

How likely are the Liberals to make up a 500 vote gap with 3k postal votes in a 3-way marginal?

The Libs can't win. Either they're 3rd & their preferences elect Labor over the Greens; they're 2nd & preferences from whichever of Labor & the Green finish 3rd will flow to the 1st-place party, electing them over the Libs; or even if they claim the #1 spot on 3CP, preferences from whichever of Labor & the Green finish 3rd will just flow to the 2nd-place party, electing them over the Libs.

[adma]

Has anyone calculated what the seat count would have been in Australia if there was no preferential ballot and it was pure FPTP like in the UK or Canada?

It's not easy, because you can't just assume that people's first preference votes would become their only preference votes.  I assume that in practice a lot of first preference votes for parties out of contention would have instead been tactical votes, but you'd have to estimate the extent to which that would happen.

I realize that if you change system people may vote differently - though in Canada having pure FPTP doesn't prevent over 30% of people from voting for smaller parties! I just want to know how many seats each party would have won last week in Australia if we just counted who led on first preferences. Period.

Bennelong: Lib rather than ALP
Boothby:  Lib rather than ALP
Brisbane:  LNP rather than Green
Curtin:  Lib rather than Ind
Fowler: ALP rather than Ind
Goldstein:  Lib rather than Ind
Higgins:  Lib rather than ALP
Kooyong:  Lib rather than Ind
Lyong:  Lib rather than ALP
Mackellar:  Lib rather than Ind
North Sydney:  Lib rather than Ind
Robertson:  Lib rather than ALP
Ryan:  LNP rather than Green
Tangney:  Lib rather than ALP
Wentworth:  Lib rather than Ind

So the present ALP-and-leaning is 76, Coalition-and-leaning 59--which'd mean 73 Coalition to 71 ALP.  (If my math is right, that is.)

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/AntonyGreenElec/status/1530410212896583680

How likely are the Liberals to make up a 500 vote gap with 3k postal votes in a 3-way marginal?

The Libs can't win

Yes, but that wasn't quite the question I asked

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/AntonyGreenElec/status/1530410212896583680

How likely are the Liberals to make up a 500 vote gap with 3k postal votes in a 3-way marginal?

The Libs can't win

Yes, but that wasn't quite the question I asked

In that case, they've since taken a 50-vote 3CP lead, but that's rather meaningless for them as anything other than a mere statistic. As for the count, they're now down to just 2K ballots left in Macnamara.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://twitter.com/AntonyGreenElec/status/1530410212896583680

How likely are the Liberals to make up a 500 vote gap with 3k postal votes in a 3-way marginal?

The Libs can't win

Yes, but that wasn't quite the question I asked

In that case, they've since taken a 50-vote 3CP lead, but that's rather meaningless for them as anything other than a mere statistic. As for the count, they're now down to just 2K ballots left in Macnamara.

There’s at least 6k votes minimum left to be counted in Macnamara. No clue where you’ve got 2k from, perhaps votes counted as primaries but not yet as 3cp?

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/AntonyGreenElec/status/1530410212896583680

How likely are the Liberals to make up a 500 vote gap with 3k postal votes in a 3-way marginal?

The Libs can't win

Yes, but that wasn't quite the question I asked

In that case, they've since taken a 50-vote 3CP lead, but that's rather meaningless for them as anything other than a mere statistic. As for the count, they're now down to just 2K ballots left in Macnamara.

There’s at least 6k votes minimum left to be counted in Macnamara. No clue where you’ve got 2k from, perhaps votes counted as primaries but not yet as 3cp?

3K was from Antony Green saying yesterday that there were only 3K postals left for the 3CP, & 2K today is from #AusPol.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://twitter.com/AntonyGreenElec/status/1530410212896583680

How likely are the Liberals to make up a 500 vote gap with 3k postal votes in a 3-way marginal?

The Libs can't win

Yes, but that wasn't quite the question I asked

In that case, they've since taken a 50-vote 3CP lead, but that's rather meaningless for them as anything other than a mere statistic. As for the count, they're now down to just 2K ballots left in Macnamara.

There’s at least 6k votes minimum left to be counted in Macnamara. No clue where you’ve got 2k from, perhaps votes counted as primaries but not yet as 3cp?

3K was from Antony Green saying yesterday that there were only 3K postals left for the 3CP, & 2K today is from #AusPol.

That isn’t at all what Antony said, he said Friday’s 3cp was missing the days batch of 3k postals (which were counted yesterday and boosted the Liberals to first). And #auspol keeps up the usual low standard in understanding late counts I see. Though tbf many journos have been failing as well!

[brucejoel99]

Deakin is now officially a likely Liberal hold but with Labor already likely in Macnamara(!), it's very good news for Labor that it's now ahead in Gilmore thanks to absentee votes & pre-poll declarations, but only by 142 votes, so counting of <2K (if #AusPol is correct ) continues, & christ, it'll be a nail-bitingly close one. There'll also be an automatic recount if the final margin is 100 or less. Lord knows that Labor will be very happy if they can get to 77, making the Speaker irrelevant.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Peter Dutton announced as Opposition Leader.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-30/federal-election-live-blog-anthony-albanese/101109296

Would have thought they might try a new up and coming female leader.

[GoTfan]

ABC has called Macnamara for Labor, giving them a majority government.

[CumbrianLefty]

Can't really be unhappy with that given their anaemic "first choice" share.

And getting a majority with slightly under 52% of the two party vote shows quite a lot of the previous "pro-coalition" bias in the system has been dissipated.

[Epaminondas]

Also stunning that with over 48% of TPP, Liberals are on track to win only 58 seats.

In raw seats, that's the lowest they have won since 1983.
In proportion (76% of a majority) it's the lowest since Robert Menzies took over the party in 1946.

Will a future path to power require them to win back all the marginals, or are there deeper trends at work favouring them?

[DL]

So if I'm not mistaken the ALP now not only has a majority government federally, but they are also the government in almost all the states and territories. I think the last powerbase the coalition has is the state government in NSW - normally, you would expect it would be Labor's "turn" to win back power in NSW after a long period of Coalition rule - plus i hear the Liberal Premier there is some rightwing Catholic nutbar cut form the same cloth as Tony Abbott - but then again by the time the next NSW election rolls around the honeymoon for the Albanese government will likely be over and people may not want the ALP in power at every single level.