Australia 2022 Election

[Pulaski]

WA now:

Thanks for doing these seat by seat explainers, they are really interesting. I’ve noticed that you expect non-UNS for different states which has previously been a feature of Australian elections. Generally speaking what are the basis for you expecting different states to swing different ways? Is there credible state level polling, is it the popularity/unpopularity (measured in polls?) of state governments, the appeals the federal party are making, or perhaps even something else?

There definitely seems to be more variance by state that's emerged in the past 15-20 years. Big swings in Queensland in particular were huge deciding factors in the 2007, 2010 and 2019 elections and it's emerged as probably the most conservative-leaning state - previously WA would have been vying for that title due to its mining interests, but as morgie mentioned a hugely popular state government seems to be one of the big deciding factors there. Generally I don't think before covid that state governments and their popularities had huge bearings on federal voting intention - New South Wales had a popular Labor government in the late 90s to mid 00s but still supported Howard's Liberals during that same period.

Overall I think that, despite the state variance, the real divide is the same one that's emerging in other western countries - that between cities and regions. There's a non-zero chance that the Libs come out of this election with no seats anywhere near inner Sydney, for instance. This, for me, better explains why Victoria is a Labor-leaning state (Melbourne makes up well over 70% of the total population of Victoria), Queensland is LNP-leaning (a number of regional towns means Brisbane makes up a little less than 50% of the population), and NSW is more of a battleground (Sydney is around 65% of the population).

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Is there any truth to the sterotype that Melborune is Australia most left-wing city ? if so, why is that the case ?

[Pulaski]

Is there any truth to the sterotype that Melborune is Australia most left-wing city ? if so, why is that the case ?

Really, Canberra is the most progressive city, being a hive for public servants and academics and consistently giving the Greens the balance of power at the Territory level. But it often gets overlooked due to its small size (including by me in the original version of this post!)

Of the big cities, Melbourne would take the title, though this wasn't always the case; the modern Liberal Party was born out its wealthier eastern suburbs. I suspect it's at least in part due to its association with being the "cultural capital" of Australia, which really started with the Victorian Labor government in the 80s and its efforts to draw in more art and culture into the city. A lot of bohemian artsy types reside there now for sure.

But I've never lived in Melbourne, so I'll defer to anyone who has if they want to offer up alternate ideas.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Is there any truth to the sterotype that Melborune is Australia most left-wing city ? if so, why is that the case ?

Really, Canberra is the most progressive city, being a hive for public servants and academics and consistently giving the Greens the balance of power at the Territory level. But it often gets overlooked due to its small size (including by me in the original version of this post!)

Of the big cities, Melbourne would take the title, though this wasn't always the case; the modern Liberal Party was born out its wealthier eastern suburbs. I suspect it's at least in part due to its association with being the "cultural capital" of Australia, which really started with the Victorian Labor government in the 80s and its efforts to draw in more art and culture into the city. A lot of bohemian artsy types reside there now for sure.

But I've never lived in Melbourne, so I'll defer to anyone who has if they want to offer up alternate ideas.

Melbourne has a green MP though and probably a solid third of citizens are thejuicemedia fans.

[Pulaski]

Is there any truth to the sterotype that Melborune is Australia most left-wing city ? if so, why is that the case ?

Really, Canberra is the most progressive city, being a hive for public servants and academics and consistently giving the Greens the balance of power at the Territory level. But it often gets overlooked due to its small size (including by me in the original version of this post!)

Of the big cities, Melbourne would take the title, though this wasn't always the case; the modern Liberal Party was born out its wealthier eastern suburbs. I suspect it's at least in part due to its association with being the "cultural capital" of Australia, which really started with the Victorian Labor government in the 80s and its efforts to draw in more art and culture into the city. A lot of bohemian artsy types reside there now for sure.

But I've never lived in Melbourne, so I'll defer to anyone who has if they want to offer up alternate ideas.

Melbourne has a green MP though and probably a solid third of citizens are thejuicemedia fans.

True, but it also has a number of Liberal MPs in its east.

All 3 of Canberra's seats are solid Labor - but I don't think it's long before the Greens make a play in the seat of Canberra, they got 23% of the primary vote last time and only narrowly came in third behind the Libs. Labor's held government in the ACT for 20 years, most of that time needing the Greens to secure a majority. The ACT legally recognised same sex couples long before any states, and legislated for civil unions and marriage well before the tide had truly shifted in the rest of the country. There's also a chance that the ACT returns no Liberal senator for the first time at this election - former Rugby player David Pocock is running as a progressive independent and is apparently a decent shout, though apparently Labor are worried he might win at the expense of their Senator, rather than the Liberal.

That article also mentions the ACT's recent transition to 100% renewable energy.

I'd certainly put Melbourne as #2, but Canberra, for me, pips it.

[Pulaski]

WA now:

Thanks for doing these seat by seat explainers, they are really interesting. I’ve noticed that you expect non-UNS for different states which has previously been a feature of Australian elections. Generally speaking what are the basis for you expecting different states to swing different ways? Is there credible state level polling, is it the popularity/unpopularity (measured in polls?) of state governments, the appeals the federal party are making, or perhaps even something else?

There definitely seems to be more variance by state that's emerged in the past 15-20 years. Big swings in Queensland in particular were huge deciding factors in the 2007, 2010 and 2019 elections and it's emerged as probably the most conservative-leaning state - previously WA would have been vying for that title due to its mining interests, but as morgie mentioned a hugely popular state government seems to be one of the big deciding factors there. Generally I don't think before covid that state governments and their popularities had huge bearings on federal voting intention - New South Wales had a popular Labor government in the late 90s to mid 00s but still supported Howard's Liberals during that same period.

Overall I think that, despite the state variance, the real divide is the same one that's emerging in other western countries - that between cities and regions. There's a non-zero chance that the Libs come out of this election with no seats anywhere near inner Sydney, for instance. This, for me, better explains why Victoria is a Labor-leaning state (Melbourne makes up well over 70% of the total population of Victoria), Queensland is LNP-leaning (a number of regional towns means Brisbane makes up a little less than 50% of the population), and NSW is more of a battleground (Sydney is around 65% of the population).

Just to provide another opinion, this article analyses the respective states' votes against the national 2PP at every election since 1958 and concludes that most states are actually converging towards the national trend - with the exception of Victoria's leftward trend and Queensland's rightward trend.

So yes, I don't think it's really a state thing so much as it is a city/country thing.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

So Canberra is basically Aussie DC?

[morgieb]

So Canberra is basically Aussie DC?

Yes. There are a couple of big differences though - one is that Canberra is far whiter than DC (I think the English-speaking white population of Canberra is like 90%), and the DC metro is way larger (the DC metro in the US is roughly the size of Sydney/Melbourne, whereas Canberra only has a population of about 400k)

[morgieb]

Polling data today has been....concerning:

Morgan: 53-47 (Kevin Bonham's calculations suggest 54-46); Labor 34, Coalition 34, Greens 13, One Nation 4, UAP 1, Others 14. Apparently 56-44 on respondent preferences. That should indicate a comfortable Labor win but Morgan is notoriously ALP-friendly which worries me if their primary vote is in the mid-30's.

Resolve: 52-48 (51-49 on respodnent preferences); Coalition 34, Labor 31, Greens 14, One Nation 6, UAP 4, Others 10. Those figures look kind of bad, especially given that undecideds/3P voters have a significant tendency to choose the Coalition if they move off the fence. On those figures a Labor government would be expected....but a minority government likely and those figures remind me a lot of Ipsos's in 2019.....

Add that Morrison produced a buzz-friendly policy in allowing people to use their super for buying a house (most economists have slammed it but I get the feeling especially with those suspectible to BS would see it as "Liberals are making it easier to buy your own home with your money, Labor expect the government to own part of it") and that Albanese apparently had a difficult press conference and I'm getting really concerned that this is 2019 redux.

[CumbrianLefty]

I mean, if the ALP manage to blow this one they might as well pack up and go home.

[morgieb]

I mean, if the ALP manage to blow this one they might as well pack up and go home.

Yeah, that would be a major bit of soul searching. They had most things going for them - high inflation, a not super well-regarded COVID response, climate change coming true, disliked PM. And they weren't victims to a scare campaign. The obvious answer is that Albanese ran a crap campaign and people can get bought off.

I think if Labor learn the right lessons (don't coronate a leader, a small target needs an effective overarching message) they could absolutely run up the score in 2025 as the issues that have plagued the current government will only get worse. But there is little reason to think that they will.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Will the greens be able to break out of Melbourne in the lower house ?

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Can’t find a more recent article than October, but will the Norfolk Island Party manage to do any better than last place in Bean?

Edit: lol, nvm. They didn’t get on the ballot.

[Meclazine for Israel]

I mean, if the ALP manage to blow this one they might as well pack up and go home.

From Sportsbet:

Labor are favourite with 76-80 seats predicted.

Liberals are predicted to only get 66-70 seats. Josh Frydenburg predicted to lose his seat.

Labor would then have a clear majority of the 151 available seats.

On Sportsbet, Labor have fallen out to $1.42

Liberals have 'shorten'ed to $2.90

Sportsbet is the most accurate poll in Australia. Once they put you at $1.42, you are overwhelming favourite.

Scott Morrison just needs Albanese to forget the official Reserve Bank cash rate, the national Unemployment Rate and his own 6 point policies live on national TV.......oh wait.

[GoTfan]

Polling data today has been....concerning:

Morgan: 53-47 (Kevin Bonham's calculations suggest 54-46); Labor 34, Coalition 34, Greens 13, One Nation 4, UAP 1, Others 14. Apparently 56-44 on respondent preferences. That should indicate a comfortable Labor win but Morgan is notoriously ALP-friendly which worries me if their primary vote is in the mid-30's.

Resolve: 52-48 (51-49 on respodnent preferences); Coalition 34, Labor 31, Greens 14, One Nation 6, UAP 4, Others 10. Those figures look kind of bad, especially given that undecideds/3P voters have a significant tendency to choose the Coalition if they move off the fence. On those figures a Labor government would be expected....but a minority government likely and those figures remind me a lot of Ipsos's in 2019.....

Add that Morrison produced a buzz-friendly policy in allowing people to use their super for buying a house (most economists have slammed it but I get the feeling especially with those suspectible to BS would see it as "Liberals are making it easier to buy your own home with your money, Labor expect the government to own part of it") and that Albanese apparently had a difficult press conference and I'm getting really concerned that this is 2019 redux.

I'm almost certain that Morrison wins because of two things:

1) By now, it's blatantly obvious to anyone paying attention that the media has it out for Labor, no matter who's leading them.

2) Australians are idiots. This really should've been clear in 2019, but is crystal clear this year.

[MaxQue]

I mean, if the ALP manage to blow this one they might as well pack up and go home.

Yeah, that would be a major bit of soul searching. They had most things going for them - high inflation, a not super well-regarded COVID response, climate change coming true, disliked PM. And they weren't victims to a scare campaign. The obvious answer is that Albanese ran a crap campaign and people can get bought off.

I think if Labor learn the right lessons (don't coronate a leader, a small target needs an effective overarching message) they could absolutely run up the score in 2025 as the issues that have plagued the current government will only get worse. But there is little reason to think that they will.

Which is NOT the right lesson. Labour big problems seems to be that policy is designed to please the malignant big unions, rather than the voters. Also, they need a secret plan to quickly pass antitrust laws in media the second they win.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I definitely don't know if the ALP will win or lose this election, but I can't imagine putting any credence in the work of a company called 'Resolve Strategic', no matter what they exactly they did.

[Pericles]

I think Labor can be pretty worried they'll end up barely short of a majority, but it is looking good that Albanese will be PM, and very likely that there won't be another majority for Morrison.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

A labour minority Goverment would be better from a policy and left wing perspective so long as the greens plus Wilke alone can hold the balnce of power.

[Pulaski]

Essential today has Labor 48-46 on its weird "2PP+" metric.

A narrowing race, but too little too late I think. Millions have already voted, and one guy thinks as many as 50% of voters could prepoll.

I'll post my full predictions on Saturday but I still think a small Labor majority or a hung parliament with Labor heavily favoured are the most likely scenarios.

[GoTfan]

I mean, if the ALP manage to blow this one they might as well pack up and go home.

From Sportsbet:

Labor are favourite with 76-80 seats predicted.

Liberals are predicted to only get 66-70 seats. Josh Frydenburg predicted to lose his seat.

Labor would then have a clear majority of the 151 available seats.

On Sportsbet, Labor have fallen out to $1.42

Liberals have 'shorten'ed to $2.90

Sportsbet is the most accurate poll in Australia. Once they put you at $1.42, you are overwhelming favourite.

Scott Morrison just needs Albanese to forget the official Reserve Bank cash rate, the national Unemployment Rate and his own 6 point policies live on national TV.......oh wait.

Yeah, Morrison only had multiple sexual assaulters in his party, a horrible economic record, and the fact that he is genuinely a horrible human being.

[Pulaski]

Talking of which, the PM had his very own Boris Johnson moment at a photo-op in Tasmania today.

Lucky the kid got straight back up so everything was okay.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/race-tightens-poll-shows-coalition-lifting-support-and-labor-dropping-20220517-p5am44.html'

Resolve Strategic Poll has Liberals 49-Labor 51 in 2PP vote.

[GoTfan]

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/race-tightens-poll-shows-coalition-lifting-support-and-labor-dropping-20220517-p5am44.html'

Resolve Strategic Poll has Liberals 49-Labor 51 in 2PP vote.

I haven't really heard of these guys before, and wouldn't put a lot of stock in them the major polling groups have changed their modelling significantly, and consensus seems to be ALP ahead by anywhere from 55-45 to 53-47.

[JimJamUK]

FWIW, the differences between most pollsters (and the difference between the same pollsters polls over time) for 2PP seem worrying small. Only really Ipsos have remotely stood out from the crowd recently with a big Labour lead, so it will be interesting if Resolve does too (their previous results were fairly average).