Australia 2022 Election

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

ScoMo has lasted so long because his only skill is his ruthlessness in internal party politicking. The party room is still united around him (...for five more weeks) because he's spent the last 4 years taking calculated decisions to unite the factions and protect his leadership. If only he could actually lead the country as well rather than buggering off to Hawaii...

The new rules aren't particularly relevant as a majority of the party can still force the leader to ""resign"" when their position becomes untenable. If a majority of your colleagues want you gone you cannot continue in your position for long, yet alone fight an election. All the new rules do is force all the internal bloodletting further behind closed doors and gets rid of the sudden midnight spills that cause awful PR.

Will he be gone if labour manages to form Goverment?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I think he was also seriously helped by Tony Abbott being defeated last election: that dude definitely was out for revenge.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I think he was also seriously helped by Tony Abbott being defeated last election: that dude definitely was out for revenge.

Oh absolutely, hell hath no fury like Tony Abbott scorned. Another big benefit is the two members best placed to succeed him as leader (Dutton and Frydenberg) are both in marginal seats and have been rather distracted for the last year with constituency affairs as the national polling has tanked. On uniform swing they are in deep deep trouble and word on the ground backs that up. Even if they hold their seats on a wafer thin margin the party has no desire to repeat the Howard embarrassment.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think he was also seriously helped by Tony Abbott being defeated last election: that dude definitely was out for revenge.

Oh absolutely, hell hath no fury like Tony Abbott scorned. Another big benefit is the two members best placed to succeed him as leader (Dutton and Frydenberg) are both in marginal seats and have been rather distracted for the last year with constituency affairs as the national polling has tanked. On uniform swing they are in deep deep trouble and word on the ground backs that up.

Would Frydenburg sooner lose to a Green or to a Labor candidate?

[GoTfan]

I still say Morrison wins. Polls are already tightening, and given that the media is already running interference, that will bias things toward him.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Anthony Albanese stumbles on First Day of Campaigning at First Press Conference

Basic Economic Questions

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vyK6gAb6Eao

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NUcCi63k1GA

Possibly the worst first day of campaigning in Australian politics. Anthony Albanese could not name the Reserve Bank Cash Rate or National Unemployment Rate.

Scomo quickly pounced and just received some free fodder for his campaign ads.

Day 1: Scomo 1, Albanese 0

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Very cheap gotcha question by the journos but it's the sort of thing you need to anticipate and be prepared for. Meanwhile ScoMo also had a pretty poor day, debuting some sh**tty beer cans and insisting Alan Tudge is still a cabinet minister even though he isn't.

[GoTfan]

Like I said, the only story anyone's talking about Albo's flub.

Newscorp's already decided who the winner will be.

[Ebowed]

Albanese spent the last three years hiding in the basement and it means that he hasn't had very much practice.  It shows.  He's just lucky that this happened now and not one week out from election day.

[Pericles]

I don't think voters are going to change their minds over this, really.

[Pulaski]

Like I said, the only story anyone's talking about Albo's flub.

Newscorp's already decided who the winner will be.

I don't know if you're old enough to remember the 2007 election in detail, but during that campaign Rudd was similarly blasted by conservatives for being unable to correctly list all the different income tax brackets. Granted, Rudd had more personal popularity than Albanese, but my hunch is that this will make little difference in the minds of most voters come election day.

On a far less interesting note, I bumped into Tony Burke today while out and about in Newtown and wished him good luck.

[GoTfan]

So overall, a pretty mixed week with some bad flubs from both leaders.

Among the highlights: Morrison seems unable to develop an election strategy beyond 'we make jobs'. Ironic, considering the factory he visited is cutting jobs and outsourcing them.

[Ebowed]

The problem with Albanese's opening gaffe was that it underlined a common Coalition line of attack, that Labor is no good at managing the economy.  (By the way, perception matters just as much, if not more, than reality in an election campaign.)  The subsequent headlines have not done anything to neuter that line of attack, indeed they have re-enforced it.  For instance, Albanese insists that his policies are fully costed; his finance spokesperson has now corrected him.  The costings are coming before polling day, but it was an unprovoked error for him to be unequivocal that he only releases costed policies two days before backtracking and admitting that the policy has not yet been costed.

Again, none of these things will make the difference in isolation.  But right now, Albanese is succumbing to a narrative that does not cast him in a positive light.  Incompetent and complacent.

The election is still his to lose, but he's in a bit of a catch-22, in that the more people see of him, the less they will like him, but he can't just continue to hide because Morrison works his hardest when there's an election on.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Getting ahead a bit, but who are the likely leaders of the party that loses?

[Pulaski]

Getting ahead a bit, but who are the likely leaders of the party that loses?

Josh Frydenberg, current Treasurer, is widely considered the prohibitive favourite for the Liberal leadership should they lose. Only other potential candidate would be defence minister Peter Dutton, but I think the Liberals are too smart to try to win back government with literally Voldemort at the helm.

On the Labor side it's a little bit trickier. Tanya Plibersek (my MP) was considered more of a favourite than Albanese last time, but chose not to run citing her young family. Strange that the same young family wasn't a barrier to being deputy leader for 6 years, or a minister before that. Other likely contenders would be their treasury spokesman Jim Chalmers, or possibly their deputy leader Richard Marles (please God no).

[AustralianSwingVoter]

If Labor loses it's unlikely they'll try another NSW Left acolyte. Jim Chalmers is probably the best bet, especially if Labor loses because they fail to make the needed gains in Queensland. Marles is possible but unlikely as there's still a lot of rumours swirling around about the Victorian Right. If Labor had balls they'd try Penny Wong given how well she polls but SA Left Senator are three big disqualifiers for a potential leader.

On the Labor side it's a little bit trickier. Tanya Plibersek (my MP) was considered more of a favourite than Albanese last time, but chose not to run citing her young family. Strange that the same young family wasn't a barrier to being deputy leader for 6 years, or a minister before that.

Who on earth thought Plibersek was the favourite in 2019? The Guardian? She didn't run because she wasn't as acceptable to the Right and would've drawn a contested ballot with Chris Bowen, something both factions desperately wanted to avoid with the Rudd rules.
Albanese was already positioning himself for the leadership and had been since the July '18 by-elections.

[Pulaski]

If Labor loses it's unlikely they'll try another NSW Left acolyte. Jim Chalmers is probably the best bet, especially if Labor loses because they fail to make the needed gains in Queensland. Marles is possible but unlikely as there's still a lot of rumours swirling around about the Victorian Right. If Labor had balls they'd try Penny Wong given how well she polls but SA Left Senator are three big disqualifiers for a potential leader.

On the Labor side it's a little bit trickier. Tanya Plibersek (my MP) was considered more of a favourite than Albanese last time, but chose not to run citing her young family. Strange that the same young family wasn't a barrier to being deputy leader for 6 years, or a minister before that.

Who on earth thought Plibersek was the favourite in 2019? The Guardian? She didn't run because she wasn't as acceptable to the Right and would've drawn a contested ballot with Chris Bowen, something both factions desperately wanted to avoid with the Rudd rules.
Albanese was already positioning himself for the leadership and had been since the July '18 by-elections.

Plibersek was definitely considered more likely than Albanese initially. Albanese was at first considered a little old to be leader. Both Shorten and Gillard were prepared to back Plibersek. However, you’re probably right that her real reasons for not contesting were more to do with factional difficulties.

I’m a big Penny Wong fan, but having observed her as Senate leader she’s actually not a brilliant parliamentary performer in my view; something else that limits her chances of ever becoming leader. She’ll make a fantastic Foreign Minister though.

[Pulaski]

Another one to watch would be Kristina Keneally, who’s moving to the lower house at this election. Despite leading NSW Labor to a crushing defeat as premier a decade ago, and forever having the stink of the NSW right around her, she’s obviously held in high esteem by the party itself, for reasons I can’t fathom.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

If Labor loses it's unlikely they'll try another NSW Left acolyte. Jim Chalmers is probably the best bet, especially if Labor loses because they fail to make the needed gains in Queensland. Marles is possible but unlikely as there's still a lot of rumours swirling around about the Victorian Right. If Labor had balls they'd try Penny Wong given how well she polls but SA Left Senator are three big disqualifiers for a potential leader.

On the Labor side it's a little bit trickier. Tanya Plibersek (my MP) was considered more of a favourite than Albanese last time, but chose not to run citing her young family. Strange that the same young family wasn't a barrier to being deputy leader for 6 years, or a minister before that.

Who on earth thought Plibersek was the favourite in 2019? The Guardian? She didn't run because she wasn't as acceptable to the Right and would've drawn a contested ballot with Chris Bowen, something both factions desperately wanted to avoid with the Rudd rules.
Albanese was already positioning himself for the leadership and had been since the July '18 by-elections.

Plibersek was definitely considered more likely than Albanese initially. Albanese was at first considered a little old to be leader. Both Shorten and Gillard were prepared to back Plibersek. However, you’re probably right that her real reasons for not contesting were more to do with factional difficulties.

I’m a big Penny Wong fan, but having observed her as Senate leader she’s actually not a brilliant parliamentary performer in my view; something else that limits her chances of ever becoming leader. She’ll make a fantastic Foreign Minister though.

Being backed by both Shorten and Gillard was if anything a disadvantage! And any discussion of Penny Wong's prospects can't go without mentioning Don Farrell either.

[GoTfan]

Morrison will still win I believe-Australians are stupid people and easily influenced by whatever's in The Australian.

[CumbrianLefty]

Morrison will still win I believe-Australians are stupid people and easily influenced by whatever's in The Australian.

All this sounds rather familiar to a British leftist.....

(but in both cases, it is just a bit of an over-simplification - even to the extent it is true)

[GoTfan]

My question is why an 'impartial' ABC journalist created a Twitter list called 'Labor Trolls' when she could've just blocked them. Instead she decided to single them out politically, which I believe is a violation of the ABC's code of conduct.

[morgieb]

Getting ahead a bit, but who are the likely leaders of the party that loses?

Liberal: Frydenberg/Dutton battle, Frydenberg might be favoured but if the party "purges" a lot of the moderates (which I think Liberals want) then that favours Dutton. If one were to lose the other one would be earmarked as leader. If somehow both lose.....then I really have no idea. Taylor/Andrews, maybe?

Labor: I suspect Chalmers is the heir apparent. Only problem might be him in a leadership ballot, but that didn't hurt Shorten. I think Plibersek's time has past, Kenneally feels too toxic (and might not win her seat) and Marles too much of a lightweight.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Labor are leading by 14 points in the polls over the LNP.

Not even a Hillary Clinton style choke will stop Albo from losing this election.

Labor has got it in the bag.

Women just don't like Scomo.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Labor are leading by 14 points in the polls over the LNP.

Not even a Hillary Clinton style choke will stop Albo from losing this election.

Labor has got it in the bag.

Women just don't like Scomo.

Why such a big swing, Meclazine?