Australia 2022 Election

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Looking at results this morning, I've got the following:

Labor: 74 (71 called, plus Lingiari, Macnamara and Richmond where they look in a strong enough position)
Coalition: 54 (52 called plus Cowper and Bass)
Greens: 4 (3 called plus Brisbane)
KAP: 1
CA: 1
Independents: 10!! (Clark, Curtin, Fowler, Goldstein, Indi, Kooyong, Mackellar, North Sydney, Warringah and Wentworth)

Still in doubt: 7

• Bennelong: Labor ahead.
• Deakin: Labor ahead.
• Gilmore: Labor ahead by an absolute whisker. Wouldn't be surprised if it flips at this stage.
• Lyons: Labor ahead. One of the big shocks of the night for me, it will be very tight.
• Menzies: Liberals ahead and I'd be surprised if they didn't retain.
• Moore: Liberals ahead. Not on my radar at all! WA seat so anything could happen here.
• Sturt: Absolute knife-edge. Liberal ahead by less than 100 votes at last count.

So Labor still a good chance of taking a majority, but it will be close.

If Labor doesn't take the majority, is there any chance they'd prefer a coalition with left-leaning teal members over the Greens?

Was discussing this with a mate last night. He thinks it’s a real possibility if Labor want to avoid the “Labor-Green” sledges. I think they’ll happen anyway, but also that many of the teals might want to avoid being accused of keeping Labor in power if they can at all help it, given that most of them come from formerly Liberal seats.

Of course the other option for Labor if they reach 75 seats is relying solely on Andrew Wilkie, who’s more of a straight-up progressive rather than a teal.

What could also help Labor, in any event, is if they could end up getting a teal indy to be named the Speaker of the House.

I can't really see this happening. Of the 10 independents, 9 will be in either their first or second term, meaning they aren't very experienced in the rules and standing orders. Labor will also remember the Slipper debacle well and will hardly be keen to suffer any repeat. Rob Mitchell seems to be the next cab off the rank on Labor's side and I expect he'll be elected Speaker when Parliament comes back.

If Labor winds up on exactly 76 seats, wouldn't there be an issue about their having a majority on the floor? Or is that not typically taken into consideration even though it recently has been in other Westminster systems like, say, BC in 2017?

The Speaker can cast a tiebreaking vote.

Also, since there's an even number of seats, 76 minus a Labor Speaker gives 75-74, not 75-75.

[Sestak]

Also, since there's an even number of seats, 76 minus a Labor Speaker gives 75-74, not 75-75.

There are 151 total seats, no?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Also, since there's an even number of seats, 76 minus a Labor Speaker gives 75-74, not 75-75.

There are 151 total seats, no?

I didn't realize that had been changed. But yes, apparently since 2019 it's been 151. My mistake.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

How strong is party discipline, will labour have any trouble keeping it's MP's in line ?

[Meclazine for Israel]

Outside their own heads. the Greens actually have little support from working class Australian voters. Years of refusing to listen to what these voters are saying and lecturing them on how they are wrong (notably on unauthorised immigration), will do that.

They've got more support than the far right but jobs you stan

not from working class Australians.

Even from working class australinans they do

most working class Australians oppose unauthorised immigration by boat, which the Greens support.

The majority of top earning and high wealth Australians overwhelmingly oppose unauthorised immigration by boat.

Most Australians would be happy with immihration staff going to Poland and then selecting refugees from Ukraine who are in genuine need of resettlement until Russia pisses off.

The Sri Lankan and Indonesian boats are run by criminal networks and putting lives at risk.

Both Labor and Liberal are happy with the refugee system as it currently stands. Labor put it in place.

The Teal independents are not so thrilled with it, so that might be where things start to change with immigration policy.

I think there were 6 or 7 teals.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So I was looking at the endorsements and found that the Northern Territory News was the only News Corp paper to endorse Labor. Then I found it also endorsed Labor in 2019 and 2016.
What makes the NT News special?

[Velasco]

The discussion within the Nationals on climate action plans is fascinating. Barnaby Joyce denies any responsibility in the defeat of the National's inner city "cousins"

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/23/barnaby-joyce-signals-nationals-could-drop-support-for-net-zero-emissions

Clearly this election reveals climate crisis is an issue, as well the existence of a huge gap between the cities and the country regions

[Pulaski]

ABC's called Bennelong for Labor and Menzies and Moore for the Libs.

Bit surprised that Bass and Cowper are still only "likely" Coalition.

I can understand because of preferences they don't want to call Macnamara or Richmond yet, but they have them as "likely" Labor and given that they're winning in primary votes I can't see them falling into 3rd from this stage so I'm comfortable calling them both for Labor.

Labor: 75 (73 called, plus Macnamara and Richmond)
Coalition: 56 (54 called plus Cowper and Bass)
Greens: 3
KAP: 1
CA: 1
Independents: 10

Still in doubt: 5

• Brisbane: Called this one too early. Labor are in 3rd but only 200 votes behind the Greens in 2nd. Either way the Coalition have obviously lost this seat
• Deakin: Labor ahead, but by just 59 votes now and the Liberal's looking better at every update.
• Gilmore: Constance is only about 200 votes ahead but my hunch is that he'll win it from here.
• Lyons: Labor ahead and looking a little healthier.
• Sturt: Liberal has pulled ahead by nearly 1000 votes and I expect this one will be called soon.

So the smart money is probably on Labor scraping a majority at this stage, given that Lyons would get them there and they still stand a decent chance in both Brisbane and Deakin.

[morgieb]

ABC's called Bennelong for Labor and Menzies and Moore for the Libs.

Bit surprised that Bass and Cowper are still only "likely" Coalition.

I can understand because of preferences they don't want to call Macnamara or Richmond yet, but they have them as "likely" Labor and given that they're winning in primary votes I can't see them falling into 3rd from this stage so I'm comfortable calling them both for Labor.

Labor: 75 (73 called, plus Macnamara and Richmond)
Coalition: 56 (54 called plus Cowper and Bass)
Greens: 3
KAP: 1
CA: 1
Independents: 10

Still in doubt: 5

• Brisbane: Called this one too early. Labor are in 3rd but only 200 votes behind the Greens in 2nd. Either way the Coalition have obviously lost this seat
• Deakin: Labor ahead, but by just 59 votes now and the Liberal's looking better at every update.
• Gilmore: Constance is only about 200 votes ahead but my hunch is that he'll win it from here.
• Lyons: Labor ahead and looking a little healthier.
• Sturt: Liberal has pulled ahead by nearly 1000 votes and I expect this one will be called soon.

So the smart money is probably on Labor scraping a majority at this stage, given that Lyons would get them there and they still stand a decent chance in both Brisbane and Deakin.

I think you might have the Gilmore/Deakin thing the wrong way around. Sukkar's gains on postals have been so extreme that it's getting hard for Labor. Maybe future postals could slow the trend - certainly these seem very right-wing - but I think I'd rather be the Liberals than Labor.

Constance's lead is an illusion - one booth had the 2PP vote the wrong way around. So I think Labor might still be ahead there. The postal count is already quite advanced too so any further gains on postals might not be forthcoming. I wouldn't write Constance off at all but I think that's a toss-up.

Lyons also has a probable 2PP discrepancy so when that's corrected that should be beyond doubt for Labor.

Macnamara is interesting as the Liberals do gain quite a lot on postal votes there thanks to the conservative Jewish population. I think Burns's lead over the Liberals is big enough that it probably won't be run down (especially as he seems to be doing well on early postals) but there remains a world where the votes are close enough that preferences knock Burns to third. But I'd still prefer to be Labor there.

[Meclazine for Israel]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-23/four-labor-ministers-who-were-sworn-in-today-federal-election/101091246#marles

The Today Show segment with Richard Marles and Peter Dutton will now be the Acting Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition.

Karl Stefanovic will have a field day.

[Pulaski]

ABC's called Bennelong for Labor and Menzies and Moore for the Libs.

Bit surprised that Bass and Cowper are still only "likely" Coalition.

I can understand because of preferences they don't want to call Macnamara or Richmond yet, but they have them as "likely" Labor and given that they're winning in primary votes I can't see them falling into 3rd from this stage so I'm comfortable calling them both for Labor.

Labor: 75 (73 called, plus Macnamara and Richmond)
Coalition: 56 (54 called plus Cowper and Bass)
Greens: 3
KAP: 1
CA: 1
Independents: 10

Still in doubt: 5

• Brisbane: Called this one too early. Labor are in 3rd but only 200 votes behind the Greens in 2nd. Either way the Coalition have obviously lost this seat
• Deakin: Labor ahead, but by just 59 votes now and the Liberal's looking better at every update.
• Gilmore: Constance is only about 200 votes ahead but my hunch is that he'll win it from here.
• Lyons: Labor ahead and looking a little healthier.
• Sturt: Liberal has pulled ahead by nearly 1000 votes and I expect this one will be called soon.

So the smart money is probably on Labor scraping a majority at this stage, given that Lyons would get them there and they still stand a decent chance in both Brisbane and Deakin.

I think you might have the Gilmore/Deakin thing the wrong way around. Sukkar's gains on postals have been so extreme that it's getting hard for Labor. Maybe future postals could slow the trend - certainly these seem very right-wing - but I think I'd rather be the Liberals than Labor.

Constance's lead is an illusion - one booth had the 2PP vote the wrong way around. So I think Labor might still be ahead there. The postal count is already quite advanced too so any further gains on postals might not be forthcoming. I wouldn't write Constance off at all but I think that's a toss-up.

Lyons also has a probable 2PP discrepancy so when that's corrected that should be beyond doubt for Labor.

Macnamara is interesting as the Liberals do gain quite a lot on postal votes there thanks to the conservative Jewish population. I think Burns's lead over the Liberals is big enough that it probably won't be run down (especially as he seems to be doing well on early postals) but there remains a world where the votes are close enough that preferences knock Burns to third. But I'd still prefer to be Labor there.

You're probably right about Deakin - I've seen an update that has Sukkar in the lead now. Presume he'll be in line for a promotion in Opposition.

Not prepared to call Gilmore yet by any means, just something tells me Constance is going to nab it.

I don't doubt the Libs will gain in Macnamara, but I can't see them and the Greens overtaking Labor, which is what'd need to happen for Burns to lose.

Some sources already have Lyons for Labor, which is encouraging. Some also still have Grey and Ryan as too close to call, which is bizarre?

[CumbrianLefty]

How strong is party discipline, will labour have any trouble keeping it's MP's in line ?

Fairly strong as a rule, and a small majority or even minority position can often make that easier in at least some respects. Whatever happens with the final undeclared seats the ALP will also have a fair sized lead over the coalition, so their position may be stronger than it initially looks.

[morgieb]

Nicholls - on paper, this is a very safe Nationals seat. But the sitting MP is retiring which has allowed for a three-cornered contest and there also is a very strong Independent running. Although the impression of Independents attacking safe Coalition seats seems to be an urban one, an under-rated recent factor is that the Nats are under threat in some of their heartlands as well. This looks to be very close and given how many visits Joyce has had to the seat I think the Nats know it. Although I'm slightly weary of seeing another Kevin Mack situation, I think Preistly wins this.

Priestly did well to win 25% of the vote, but that wasn't close to winning the seat, alas. Rural Victoria is still very strongly conservative.

Gippsland - it's crazy to think that this seat was extremely close as recently as the Howard Years on the current boundaries. I guess that shows what's happened in the Latrobe Valley recently. There's probably room for a swing but it seems like Chester has nailed down the seat and this is obviously safe.

So, there was room for a swing. The only problem was that it was in Chester's direction. Given the way the Nationals are likely to behave in recent years, how is he going to fare as one of the only moderates in the party? He could easily go Independent.

Mallee - although population decline means that the seat is no longer the safest in Australia (which it was for a while), this is still a very safe Nationals seat and without a big-name Independent running will remain so. The primary votes in 2019 were very odd but was probably influenced by the sitting MP retiring.

A more normal result here, which meant that this seat saw a swing back to the Nationals and return to being one of the safest seats in the country (though not necessarily in Victoria).

Wannon - another safe rural seat for the Coalition, though this one is Liberal held rather than Nationals held. Alex Dyson ran well here in 2019 so his vote might be one to watch, maybe? Long-term the seat could start to get interesting as the Surf Coast grows and seachanger factors rise but that's probably still another generation away.

Dyson did very well to finish second here and take Tehan to preferences, so the seat might look pretty close for future elections. But looks like he'll fall short.

Aston - on paper, a safe Liberal seat. But Labor came close here in 2010 (and extremely close on the current boundaries) and Tudge has had a lot of problems with an affair and some bullying allegations. I don't think it'll be enough to sink him especially as the area has trended right long-term, but the swing will be interesting to watch and it might be pushed into marginal territory.

It does appear that Tudge's controversies took its toll here, with a pretty massive swing against him to push the seat towards marginal territory. I think you'd want him to leave parliament as soon as possible and get someone without the same kind of baggage to hold what is one of the few Liberal seats in Melbourne.

Goldstein - historically this was as blue-ribbon of a seat as you could get in Melbourne. But the area is quite progressive these days and in 2018 I think Labor would've won the seat assuming state boundaries were extrapolated to federal ones. Tim Wilson is a bit of a controversial incumbent without much personal support and he is now facing a very strong Teal Independent in Zoe Daniel. It's possible that her bubble might've burst too early, but I think as things stand she wins the seat.

Her bubble didn't burst at all. A pretty easy win that was in the end quite unremarkable given what else what happening in similar seats in the election.

Menzies - I think this is probably the most secure seat for the Coalition in urban Melbourne. It's not really a culturally progressive seat akin to some of the other blue-ribbon Melbourne-based seats, and while there's no sitting MP Andrews was a controversial figure so in some ways they may be better off not having him as their MP.

So much for the most secure seat in Melbourne! The Liberals still hung on but it looked extremely close for most of the night and the margin is looking awfully tight. I expect that the margin will start to rise again in future elections, but it says a lot about where the party is going when seats like this aren't even secure.

Monash - again another seat I think should be secure, though like Wannon I could see the long-term trend be interesting as some of the dormitory towns grow and the Bass Coast seems ripe for seachange style voters.

There was a pretty significant swing on the Princes Highway, but not so much in the rest of the seat. Still, the seat is now fairly marginal and it's not the sort of seat I'd want to be defending in a (possible?) landslide year given Broadbent's age and personal vote.

Flinders - interesting one. Historically it's a fairly safe seat but the seat did become semi-close in 2019. There's a fair bit of demographic similarity between this and the Golden Triangle seats and Greg Hunt is retiring which makes things hard for the Libs. An advantage they gained was a leading Independent in Despi O'Connor being caught out on s44 breaches and having to suspend her campaign - without it I think she would've made the seat very close. I'm not sure if it's ready to vote Labor - my guess is that Labor narrowly miss out - but it does have boilover potential especially if Labor are doing very well.

Interestingly the Liberals did rather well here. Certainly not what I expected out of the night. Greg Hunt must've been more toxic than I thought locally.

Kooyong - is Josh Frydenberg the new Michael Portillo? That might be the key question of the night. The area is very blue-ribbon but also quite culturally progressive, and there was already a lot of bleeding in 2019. And he's got the fight of his life against Monique Ryan and this is a seat where Morrison is clearly on the nose. So this will be very close. Forced to call, I think Frydenberg just about hangs on through sheer bile, but this is about as close to a pure toss-up as you can get.

The only thing that wasn't Portillo-ish about the result was expectations. Though I just about stayed solid with Frydenberg predicting him to lose was far from an uncommon prediction. The margin being bigger than Goldstein does surprise me a bit though. But otherwise, this result says a lot about where the Liberals are going, yeah?

La Trobe - it's worth noting that this is no longer the same seat that was a classic marginal for so many years - it swapped Labor-friendly territory in the Dandenong Ranges for the Pakenham area as well as some Liberal voting rural areas. So the seat is a bit safer for the Libs than the old one (even in 07/10 this would've been held fairly comfortably on current boundaries). However it's also worth noting that the population of the seat was much smaller back then than it is now as the Pakenham area has grown, and it's hard to think of a a seat that was more perfectly designed to be a marginal than this. Something like 70% of the seat is experiencing mortgage stress so CoL issues will bite here. I think this will probably remain a Liberal hold, but it remains a seat to watch.

Interestingly this had quite a significant swing towards the Liberals, something that didn't really happen in their other seats. Margin looks pretty safe though future redistributions will do strange things to teh seat.

Deakin - another seat where boundary changes haven't been favourable to Labor, turning the previous marginal into a Liberal-leaning electorate with the marginal Blackburn being swapped with the Liberal-voting Croydon. So on current boundaries Labor wouldn't have won it in 2007 or 2010. It doesn't seem like Labor are making much of an effort to flip this so I don't think it goes, but it should be tight.

Should Labor have put more on a effort in flipping this one? Indeed it looked like Sukkar was gone on the night. Postals might see him survive, but it's going to be very close....uncomfortably so.

Casey - this is basically the Melbourne version of Macquarie at this point combining a treechangery Labor-leaning area (the Dandenongs) with Liberal voting outer suburbs. The balance is more in favour of the Lilydale/Mooroolbark area than the Dandenongs though so that helps the Liberals. However Tony Smith is retiring and the Liberal candidate to replace him doesn't seem particularly strong. The polarised nature of the seat probably helps especially as the northern part of the seat seems Morrison friendly. So close, but no cigar for Labor.

Close but no cigar was about right. There was a swing towards Labor but it wasn't quite consistent enough amongst the whole seat to endanger the Liberals.

Higgins - looks horrifically vulnerable, but there are a couple of factors that might help Allen - she now has the advantage of being the incumbent and has at least tried to differentiate herself from more standard Liberals, while the Labor candidate has made a name for herself for her anti-AstraZeneca campaigning, which could easily smear her as an anti-vaxxer. So it'll come down to party or candidate most likely. There's also the factor of the Greens, who hold the state seat of Prahran and were close to finishing in the Top 2 here last time. Will be close, but I'll tip a Greens gain.

Being "different" from the other Liberals didn't really help anyone other than maybe Bridget Archer, so yeah. Unfortunately the AZ thing didn't rear its head much in the campaign, and unlike other seats most of the swing was from Liberal to Labor (rather than Liberals to Greens or Liberals to Teals) so this was an easy win for Ananda-Rajah.

Chisholm - on paper, this should be gone. But Liu is a very tough campaigner and unlike 2019 Labor's candidate isn't Chinese, so she may have the benefits of an unaffected ethnic vote this time around. Labor have also gone dirty to try and attack her, which is a sign that they think this is very close and it also has the risk of backfiring. All in all, I think the margin is too small for the Libs to hold this....but the swing might be somewhat muted.

So much for a muted swing. Even if Labor were going dirty, it wasn't anywhere the near same extent that the Liberals were racebaiting. The seat now looks pretty safe for Labor, and barring big improvements from the Liberals with the Chinese vote this might be gone for good.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Does Australia always take so long to count votes? It's been two days since election night and the % counted has barely budged, and there are still 9 seats uncalled. I don't remember that being the case in 2016 or 2019.

[Pulaski]

Does Australia always take so long to count votes? It's been two days since election night and the % counted has barely budged, and there are still 9 seats uncalled. I don't remember that being the case in 2016 or 2019.

Huge numbers of postal votes (still coming in) plus staffing problems due to covid.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You get a very firm indication on the night, and then it always takes a while for final numbers to be fixed and done.

[Vosem]

Didn't it also take a very long time in 2016 to determine whether Turnbull had gotten a majority or narrowly missed out? The 2019 count was relatively quick but that was, IIRC, because there was an unusually low number of very close seats.

[Хahar 🤔]

I think the distribution of the Liberal vote here creates issues for future leadership. Historically in Australia party leaders hold very safe seats (this is different than, say, Canada) and they also hold metropolitan seats. My memory isn't perfect, but the last leader of either of the two major parties I can recall who didn't represent a city constituency was Joseph Lyons almost a century ago.

The issue now is what constitutes a safe Liberal constituency, the sort of place where a Liberal who was seen as future leadership material could win preselection. (Given the lack of female Liberal talent in the lower house, the Liberals would probably like to get some promising women in here.) Most of the constituencies that fit that bill in the past aren't Liberal anymore: Abbott's seat is gone, Turnbull's seat is gone, Frydenberg's seat is gone, etc. The ultra-safe seats that exist now are not necessarily the type to take so kindly to a candidate who is parachuted in the way Brendan Nelson was in his Sydney constituency.

If Peter Dutton is the next leader, he'll be a historical anomaly in his marginal seat. He wouldn't be the first party leader to be in danger of losing his seat (we all remember 2007), but it wouldn't be a comfortable place to be in.

[(no subject)]

Malcolm Fraser (PM 1975-83) was the Member for the seat of Wannon in the Western District of Victoria.

This 1987 John Cleese PPB for the SDP-Liberal Alliance reinforces posters heres view on how fifteen seats is impressive, but it’s still less than 10% of the whole Australian House of Reps and is a poor return on the 31.5% non-major party vote in the 2022 federal election – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NSUKMa1cYHk

[morgieb]

Does Australia always take so long to count votes? It's been two days since election night and the % counted has barely budged, and there are still 9 seats uncalled. I don't remember that being the case in 2016 or 2019.

Nah that sort of happened in 2016 as well. As Vosem pointed out it took ages to figure out whether Turnbull had won a majority or not.

I think it does usually take time to count postals/absents/etc but whether it matters depends on how close the election or seats were. When there aren’t many close seats there’s few seats left uncalled. This year is extra hard because of COVID and the high non-major vote.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Does Australia always take so long to count votes? It's been two days since election night and the % counted has barely budged, and there are still 9 seats uncalled. I don't remember that being the case in 2016 or 2019.

Nah that sort of happened in 2016 as well. As Vosem pointed out it took ages to figure out whether Turnbull had won a majority or not.

I think it does usually take time to count postals/absents/etc but whether it matters depends on how close the election or seats were. When there aren’t many close seats there’s few seats left uncalled. This year is extra hard because of COVID and the high non-major vote.

Ah, okay. I remembered it taking it until next day, but not dragging out for a week or more. Fair enough.

[LAB-LIB]

I just noticed something kind of remarkable. With Bennelong going to Labor, the Coalition has lost the seat of every former Prime Minister from Menzies to Turnbull, save McMahon (whose seat of Lowe was abolished) and Fraser. They lost the seat of Tony Abbott (Warringah) in 2019, and they just lost the seats of Robert Menzies (Kooyong), Harold Holt (Higgins), John Gorton (also Higgins), John Howard (Bennelong) and Malcolm Turnbull (Wentworth).

[Libertas Vel Mors]

I just noticed something kind of remarkable. With Bennelong going to Labor, the Coalition has lost the seat of every former Prime Minister from Menzies to Turnbull, save McMahon (whose seat of Lowe was abolished) and Fraser. They lost the seat of Tony Abbott (Warringah) in 2019, and they just lost the seats of Robert Menzies (Kooyong), Harold Holt (Higgins), John Gorton (also Higgins), John Howard (Bennelong) and Malcolm Turnbull (Wentworth).

Had Lowe still been an electorate, furthermore, it likely would have flipped this year too (as its successor division of Reid did).

[Ebowed]

How strong is party discipline, will labour have any trouble keeping it's MP's in line ?

Crossing the floor is more of a Coalition phenomenon.

[Pulaski]

I just noticed something kind of remarkable. With Bennelong going to Labor, the Coalition has lost the seat of every former Prime Minister from Menzies to Turnbull, save McMahon (whose seat of Lowe was abolished) and Fraser. They lost the seat of Tony Abbott (Warringah) in 2019, and they just lost the seats of Robert Menzies (Kooyong), Harold Holt (Higgins), John Gorton (also Higgins), John Howard (Bennelong) and Malcolm Turnbull (Wentworth).

We’ll be waiting for some time for Cook to flip unfortunately.