Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10

[Logical]

Nikkan Gendai says that LDP is at risk of losing its elderly base over these power problems and power rationing.  Of course, Nikkan Gendai is always negative about LDP's chances before an election to boost its sales.

Tomorrow's Gendai makes a bold claim that LDP is at risk of losing 12 single member districts (Aomori, Iwate, Miyagi, Yamagata, Fukushima, Niigata, Yamanashi, Nagano, Okayama, Ehime(?), Oita and Okinawa). Like jaichind said though, they're tabloid trash but it's interesting to note which prefectures are believed to be close.

[Logical]

It's always funny to me how different media companies make up wildly different projections from the same raw data. CYOA but for polling.

[Logical]

I can buy a JRP surge, but it's difficult for me to see how JCP would lose out in Tokyo. They have a solid lock on 10% of Tokyo's vote. Also very hard to see them finishing first in Kanagawa where the LDP has a star candidate.

[Logical]

I can buy a JRP surge, but it's difficult for me to see how JCP would lose out in Tokyo. They have a solid lock on 10% of Tokyo's vote. Also very hard to see them finishing first in Kanagawa where the LDP has a star candidate.

I would agree with you.  For JCP in Tokyo, Nikkie could in theory say that this is because of JCP->RS tactical voting.  There is no logical answer for Kanagawa and the fact they have the results they have indicates they have oversampled JRP across the board.

So what can we learn from the results they got, given this? Not saying it's useless, but what does this poll tell us?

JRP and the far right minor parties are eating into the LDP vote and might cause a surprise result or two on election night.

[Logical]

Latest JX polls




Shows the opposition shockingly leading in Fukui!

[Logical]

Highest increase in early voting turnout by prefecture
1. Tokyo 150.32%
2. Tokushima 146.20%
3. Aomori 140.20%
4. Gifu 137.01%
5. Miyazaki 136.89%
6. Iwate 133.98%
7. Chiba 133.96%
8. Kanagawa 130.90%
9. Osaka 129.37%
10. Kagawa 129.20%

Nationwide 123.41%

The increase in Tokyo and neighboring prefectures is significant. Good showing in JRP friendly prefectures too.

[Logical]

Despite NHK numbers, the trend is still a slow fall of Kishida's cabinet approval numbers

LDP party support is also falling slowly while CDP and JRP are both rising with CDP slightly ahead of JRP

Also a slight but notable JCP surge.
Will Asahi come out with a final projection? They had the most accurate numbers in 2021.

[Logical]

Wow.  Nikkie has 宮城(Miyagi) 福島(Fukushima) and 奈良(Nara) (for JRP) as lean opposition all due to the JRP surge.  奈良(Nara) is out of nowhere.  On the flip side, they have 岩手(Iwate) as lean LDP when everyone else has lean CDP.

If Ishin wins Nara would that be a sign of their evolution from "the Osaka party" to "the Kansai party"?

Also with respect to Sanseito, I noticed that one of their stops seemed to draw a bit of a crowd

https://twitter.com/sanseito_johoku/status/1543168924992544769

Any idea where they'd be likely to do best and what do you think is the biggest draw for their apparent surge?

I think Ishin became the Kansai party when they won in Hyogo. Nara isn't that much different, it's just one mountain range away from Osaka and is economically inseparable from it. Now if they manage to win in Kyoto, a prefecture with a very strong local identity, the title will be indisputable.

Sanseito's rally crowds look a lot like Yamamoto Taro's, young and professional looking, so I think they'll do their best among the under 50 conservative leaning electorate concentrated in urban areas.
The Japanese youth are quite conservative, they find the opposition (CDP, DPP) useless, JCP outdated, and RS too far left. Which is why they swung towards Ishin in 2021. This year the latest fad party is Sanseito, they offer a clear message to the disillusioned youth and a safe place to park their protest votes. The major increase in living costs and stagnant wages will also drive frustrated voters into anti establishment parties. Since Sanseito is a new party, they are free from any baggage and can critize both the government and opposition freely.

[Logical]

Nagano: Lean CDP -> Safe CDP

The Bunshun reported that the LDP candidate for Nagano had a one night stand with a woman in 2012 and impregnated her. They decided to have an abortion since the he was married and she was unwed. In Japan you need the consent of the father of the child to approve an abortion, so the LDP candidate signed off the abortion consent papers using a fake identity and sent her some money to pay for it. He has confirmed this story but claimed that he used a fake name at the request of the woman. Whatever the truth is, forgery is a crime and the LDP candidate will soon be embroiled in legal troubles.

[Logical]

Some more polls
JX did another poll for Nara and Miyazaki. Nara is close between LDP and JRP. In Miyazaki LDP suddenly looks vulnerable but the CDP candidate is still somewhat behind.
https://news.yahoo.co.jp/byline/yoneshigekatsuhiro/20220707-00304578

There's also a PR poll for Tokushima and Kochi.
https://www.topics.or.jp/articles/-/732908

[Logical]

Just awful all around. Don't know what else to say.

[Logical]

The opposition parties have confirmed that they will go back to campaigning tomorrow. Like jaichind, I believe a majority for LDP alone is now very likely. LDP-KP 2/3rds majority also possible. Despite that constitutional revision remains quite unlikely. The main concern for the Japanese electorate in the coming months is still going to be inflation.

[Logical]

Other things I learned from Japanese media coverage

1) Abe was going to campaign in  長野(Nagano) that day but last minute changed it to 奈良(Nara).  A reasonable assumption is that 奈良(Nara) has become competitive and given the sex scandal of the LDP candidate in 長野(Nagano) Abe did not want to appear with a tainted candidate ergo he changed his plans last minute

Very Franz Ferdinand this. He did not plan to campaign in Nara but the perfect storm of an abortion scandal and JRP surge led him there. The sudden change in his itinerary also caused security to be lax.

[Logical]

What are the various theories floating out there aside from the DPP cope and the official story?

Ozawa basically said Abe was asking for it. Of course, he would know as he was closely associated with moonies back when he was in the LDP.

[Logical]

PP stands for?!

Far-Right 参政党(PP) (Participation Party) seems to continue to gain steam.  The number of people that attend their rallies and watch online videos continues to rise rapidly.  There is growing speculation that they could be in a position to win a PR seat which is quite impressive they since have PNHK and HRP (which itself is Far-Right) as protest parties to peel off the anti-system vote as well as other Far-Right parties like 維新政党・新風 (IPS), 日本第一党(JFP) and 新党くにもり(NPC) in the fray to capture the Far-Right PR vote.

PP, sensing their momentum, seems to have gone all out and nominated candidates in pretty much all prefectures which says a lot about their fundraising capabilities.  

With this in mind, it would be useful to take a closer look at PP's platform.  

Their website is https://www.sanseito.jp/

and their logo is



First, PP or Participation Party is the name I made up for them.  They do not have an English name and in theory, their party name written in English is the phonetic version of 参政党 which is Sanseito.  参政党 means Participation Party which is why I prefer that for now until they ever come up with their official English name.

Their key platform points
a) Dramatic reduction of immigration and no voting rights for immigrants
b) Remilitariaton to be a part of an anti-PRC alliance in East Asia
c) Overturn the post-WWII international system with Japan being a full-blown equal to USA
d) Anti-Vax
e) Reduction of the power of banks with the promotion of digital currency and cryptos
f) Dramatic political decentralization with push for prefecture and even township rights (their "Do it yourself" slogan is part of this push)
g) Increased power of the Emperor (but not to pre-1945 levels)
h) Return Japanese culture to a pre-1945 era which an emphasis on pushing out foreign influence (especially removing the Western woke ideas)

If you watch their stump speeches it is clear that what is getting them to catch fire is the reduction of banking power, decentralization and their anti-Western woke stance.  Their success is a success of Right populism.  I can see them being a threat to JRP and could eat into the JRP vote.

Kind of funny that they emphasize eliminating Western influence on Japan but then have English (not just カタカナ言葉, but actual English) on their logo.

Japan pre-1945 notable for having no marks of Western influence...

History's greatest mistake: Allowing a westernizing Japan to model itself after the British Empire.

[Logical]

Turnout Chart
     
          (UH)     (LH)     (UH)     (UH)
          2022    2021    2019     2016
Early    TBC    19.49   16.01   15.05
10 00   6.18     6.32     5.65     7.92
11 00  10.44   11.32    9.70    13.22
14 00  18.79   21.49   18.02   22.54
16 00             26.78   22.72   27.25
18 00             31.64   27.30   32.49
19 30             34.32   30.11   36.14

Final               55.97   48.80   54.69

[Logical]

16 00 Turnout Table
    
            (UH)     (LH)     (UH)     (UH)
            2022    2021    2019    2016
Early   18.60   19.49   16.01   15.05
10 00   6.18      6.32     5.65     7.92
11 00  10.44   11.32    9.70    13.22
14 00  18.79   21.49   18.02   22.54
16 00  23.01   26.78   22.72   27.25
18 00               31.64   27.30   32.49
19 30               34.32   30.11   36.14

Final                55.97   48.80   54.69

[Logical]

Something darkly ironic, the prefecture with the highest rate of turnout increase relative to 2019 is..... Nara.

[Logical]

18 00 Turnout Table
   
            (UH)     (LH)     (UH)     (UH)
            2022    2021    2019    2016
Early   18.60   19.49   16.01   15.05
10 00    6.18    6.32     5.65     7.92
11 00  10.44   11.32    9.70    13.22
14 00  18.79   21.49   18.02   22.54
16 00  23.01   26.78   22.72   27.25
18 00  27.38   31.64   27.30   32.49
19 30             34.32   30.11   36.14

Final               55.97   48.80   54.69

Starting to think that an Abe sympathy surge may not be happening at all or will perhaps be minor. LDP stronghold prefectures like Gunma, Hiroshima, Yamaguchi are actually showing a drop in turnout compared to the very anemic turnout in 2019.

[Logical]

On the PR list NHK has it at
LDP 17
KP 5
CDP 6
JRP 6
DPP 2
JCP 2
RS 1
PP 1

Uncalled 10


Asahi
LDP 18
KP 5
CDP 5
JRP 5
JCP 3
DPP 2
RS 1
PP 1

Uncalled 10

Good night for LDP but not a landslide

[Logical]

NHK calls Niigata for LDP.
Nara was also called earlier.
Akita called for LDP.

[Logical]

NHK calls Yamanashi for LDP

[Logical]

NHK calls Oita for LDP and Nagano for CDP

[Logical]

NHK exit poll for 福井(Fukui).  It seems the JRP-backed LDP rebel did OK but not great.  The fact this seat is not called seems more about outperformance by the CDP-backed independent. 

The reason is actually quite simple. The LDP candidate is 80 and can barely speak (yes really! Just watch his speeches). I have no idea why the LDP insisted on running someone who clearly should be in a care home.

[Logical]

Final Turnout Table
   
            (UH)     (LH)     (UH)     (UH)
            2022    2021    2019    2016
Early   18.60   19.49   16.01   15.05
10 00    6.18    6.32     5.65     7.92
11 00  10.44   11.32    9.70    13.22
14 00  18.79   21.49   18.02   22.54
16 00  23.01   26.78   22.72   27.25
18 00  27.38   31.64   27.30   32.49
19 30  30.61   34.32   30.11   36.14

Final   52.16   55.97   48.80   54.69

Slightly higher than projected