Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10

[Logical]

Akita is a missed chance for the opposition. If they had gotten behind the DPP independent they would have taken it from LDP.

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NHK called the last seat in Tokyo for RS leader Yamamoto Taro. Tokyo will have a 3-3 right left split.

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Asahi has called Okinawa for the opposition candidate. Final split in the single member districts is LDP 28 OPPO 4.

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The seats that have not been called by any media outlets are:
-2 seats in Hokkaido. 3 way battle between LDP CDP CDP
-Final seat in Kanagawa. CDP JCP battle, I think the CDP is favored here.

[Logical]

北海道(Hokkaido) had a vote dump surge for CDP and with 79% of the vote counted it is

LDP        26.0 (called)
CDP        19.5
LDP        19.4
CDP        19.3
JCP          6.7
DPP          3.5
PP            2.8

Amazing 3 way tied for the last 2 seats

Clear signs of tactical voting by JCP voters since they usually poll much better than this.

[Logical]

Fake Yamamoto Taro on the NHK party list currently has 3816 votes lol. Will be interesting to see how many he votes he manages to steal by the end.

[Logical]

Asahi has SDP winning a PR seat! Going full culture warrior works for once.

[Logical]

Fake Yamamoto Taro on the NHK party list currently has 3816 votes lol. Will be interesting to see how many he votes he manages to steal by the end.

PNHK is the gimmick party.  I cannot believe it's going to work and they might win a PR seat.  This is amazing given how PP ate up the anti-system oxygen.

Well the voters for PP are not anti-system voters but disaffected right wing voters who are angry at China/Inflation. PNHK votes are there because it entertains people for them to keep going and go crazy in the Diet, like how the two-tailed dog party did well in Hungary from people being disaffected.

It looks like PNHK is having fun campaigning, which is half the battle.

Asahi has SDP winning a PR seat! Going full culture warrior works for once.

What did they do differently on the campaign?

Abandoned the old workers party image; went full rainbows, abortion, LGBT+ rights. Their party list is filled with activists instead of union representatives now.

[Logical]

NHK has also called a seat for NHK Party. (lol)
Asahi calls a second seat for RS.
If Komeito's numbers aren't improving soon I think they will lose their 7th seat.

[Logical]

LDP's share of the PR vote is now below 2019 (35.37%)

[Logical]

Fake Yamamoto Taro on the NHK party list currently has 3816 votes lol. Will be interesting to see how many he votes he manages to steal by the end.

PNHK is the gimmick party.  I cannot believe it's going to work and they might win a PR seat.  This is amazing given how PP ate up the anti-system oxygen.

Well the voters for PP are not anti-system voters but disaffected right wing voters who are angry at China/Inflation. PNHK votes are there because it entertains people for them to keep going and go crazy in the Diet, like how the two-tailed dog party did well in Hungary from people being disaffected.

It looks like PNHK is having fun campaigning, which is half the battle.

Asahi has SDP winning a PR seat! Going full culture warrior works for once.

What did they do differently on the campaign?

Abandoned the old workers party image; went full rainbows, abortion, LGBT+ rights. Their party list is filled with activists instead of union representatives now.

What sort of abortion liberalization do they favour in a Japanese context?

Kind of sad to see this. Is JCP still more old school labor party in terms of personnel and rhetoric?

As I understand it, abortion is allowed only with the father's consent in Japan. They want to remove this requirement so only the woman's consent and a doctor's approval is required.

The most old school labor party is DPP. They are the reincarnation of the old DSP, their primary support base the RENGO union. Like the old DSP, they are also willing to work with LDP govs to achieve their goals.
JCP has also moved away from old school labor rhetoric. The reason is because the JCP industrial base is also slowly dying. While Zenroren remains strong in certain industries and areas JCP draws most of its support these days from middle aged voters in urban prefectures. They talk a lot more about rising prices, consumption tax, and increasing childcare spending as a result.

[Logical]

Author and disgraced former governor of Tokyo, Inose Naoki, is elected from the JRP PR list.

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In the end, I think the electoral impact of Abe's assassination was to rob JRP off a seat in Nara, Kyoto and possibly Tokyo.

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Seat changes after the election. Only LDP, JRP, RS and NP will see their caucuses increase.

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https://www.nhk.or.jp/senkyo/database/sangiin/00/hmb12_229.html
Fake Yamamoto Taro got 53 351 votes. A clever and successful stunt by the NHK party.

[Logical]

I'm surprised that anyone's surprised by the revelations. The Abe-Kishi family has been patrons to the Moonies since forever! If you were in the LDP in the 70s until the 90s then you probably employed Moonies at some point.

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Of all the possible outcomes I thought of when Abe was assassinated I certainly could not have imagined that it would bring JCP and JRP together in one table to plot against LDP. Interesting how DIY is left out of this though.

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New strategy for LDP on Unification Church issue.  LDP General Secretary 茂木敏充(Motegi Toshimitsu) wants to shift the discussion to JCP links to various extreme Leftist groups.  The main problem here is the LDP has to show these "extreme Leftist" groups have a foreign origin.

Another problem is that these radical leftist organizations have been inactive for a long time. What's left of them are 80 year old grandpas way past their bomb throwing days.

[Logical]

Latest NHK monthly poll shows how the Moonies and Abe's state funeral issue continue to drag the Kishida admin down.

Government Approval/disapproval: 40/40
Abe state funeral approve/disapprove: 32/57
Cabinet reshuffle approve/disapprove: 34/56
Government handling of the state funeral issue approve/disapprove: 15/76
LDP's response to the moonie issue approve/disappove: 22/65

Every age group is now against Abe's state funeral.

https://www.nhk.or.jp/senkyo/shijiritsu/

[Logical]

USD/Yen hit 150 earlier today, bringing more pain to Japanese consumers.