Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10 (user search)
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  Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10  (Read 28087 times)
President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #25 on: July 08, 2022, 12:57:03 AM »

I didn't believe this at first, when told first time around. Thought I was being pranked.
Whelp, it's real. I'm speechless.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #26 on: July 08, 2022, 01:50:04 AM »

Ok, so I checked. If he indeed dies, this is the first time a Japanese PM or ex-Japanese PM had died from assassination since Saito Makoto and Takahashi Korekiyo died in February 26 Incident.
Truly unprecedented in recent Japanese political history.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #27 on: July 08, 2022, 02:17:14 AM »

In all of Japan in 2021, there were 10 gun-related incidents, according to the National Police Agency. One person died and four were injured. Eight of the 10 incidents involved organized crime.
That's a shockingly low death tally.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #28 on: July 08, 2022, 03:53:47 AM »

NHK world reporting that LDP official has said Abe has died.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #29 on: July 08, 2022, 05:24:01 AM »

Other political implications.  The leader of the largest LDP faction is gone and it will be hard to fill Abe's shoes.  Given how much the intra-faction battles are over personality differences versus policy differences this could lead to another round of re-shuffling of the different LDP factional rivalries and alliances.  One possible winner would be Kono Taro.  It seems Abe is really out to get him and if Abe stayed around in LDP politics for another decade he could really retard Kono Taro's chances of being LDP leader.  Now that Abe is gone former PM and Aso faction leader Aso Taro will become the LDP party elder.  Kono Taro is in the Aso faction plus Kono Taro's father and former LDP Prez Kono Yohei being Aso's old benefactor all means the LDP hierarchy just got a lot friendlier to Kono.
What about Shigeru Ishiba?
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #30 on: July 09, 2022, 04:32:03 AM »

https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/20220708-OYT1T50267/
Quote
Former Prime Minister Abe's constituency "Yamaguchi 4th district" to carry out by-elections ... The schedule depends on the judgment of "1 vote gap"
[Google translated from Japanese to English]
The timing of a Yamaguchi by-election will depend on when the Supreme Court lays down its ruling regarding the discrepancy in the voter weights in the most recent House election.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #31 on: July 09, 2022, 01:32:21 PM »

So LDP = cente right to right wing
JRP = right wing
PP = far right
Ultimately the LDP is pro-whatever they need to do to stay in power, first and foremost.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #32 on: July 10, 2022, 08:00:00 AM »

How did the CDP win in Aomori?
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #33 on: July 10, 2022, 08:14:06 AM »

NHK exit poll for 京都(Kyoto) shows a 3-way tie.  Asahi already called CDP to win 1 of the 2 seats so their exit poll must be different.


The LDP is probably hoping the CDP wins here, right?
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #34 on: July 10, 2022, 08:15:24 AM »


CDP incumbent is a member of a  very prominent political family with deep roots.  Her father was a big LDP kingpin in the prefecture in the 1970s-2000s who switched to DPJ late in his career in the 1990s.
Ah, that would make sense.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #35 on: July 10, 2022, 10:06:16 AM »


(NHK)
NHK shows area where NHK is on television. NHK-ception.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #36 on: July 10, 2022, 11:25:49 AM »

Why didn't the Ibaraki LDP run two candidates? They clearly have the votes to sweep.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #37 on: July 10, 2022, 12:26:44 PM »

The PR section is an utter disaster for CDP.  It will not surprise me that this leads to CDP re-thinking what the party is all about and should it even exist in its current form.
They tried to cosy up with the JCP to take down the LDP. This failed.
They spurned the JCP and tried to reach out to other anti-LDP forces. This time, they also failed.
What an unenviable situation.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #38 on: July 10, 2022, 01:28:00 PM »

NHK seems to be projecting an LDP majority.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #39 on: July 10, 2022, 01:35:36 PM »

Fake Taro Yamamoto has 18,700 or so votes thus far.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #40 on: July 10, 2022, 04:17:11 PM »


(NHK)
NHK graphic. It speaks for itself.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #41 on: July 21, 2022, 04:09:29 PM »

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20220721/p2g/00m/0na/065000c

"Opposition launches probe into lawmakers' links to Unification Church"

Now JCP wants to investigate links between Unification Church and LDP
Will this actually happen?
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #42 on: August 01, 2022, 06:59:55 AM »

So Abe's murderer has effectively "won" then?

Very chilling for freedom of religion in Japan.
A sense of needing vigilance towards cults has long been a feature of Japanese society, not sure precisely how long.
Let's hope things don't veer into excess.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #43 on: August 01, 2022, 07:02:42 AM »

Well its arguably not a win if they go ahead with a state funeral anyway.
I would expect the Abe faction will insist, come hell or high water, that he get a state funeral. It *should* be a done deal, unless something changes in the LDP. But jaichind would know better than me.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #44 on: August 01, 2022, 09:32:25 PM »

So Abe's murderer has effectively "won" then?

Very chilling for freedom of religion in Japan.
A sense of needing vigilance towards cults has long been a feature of Japanese society, not sure precisely how long.
Let's hope things don't veer into excess.

Have we forgotten the Aum Shinrikyo subway gassing already?
I imagine that that incident only reaffirmed this. Note that I'm not labelling it as unhealthy. Merely expressing the hope it doesn't veer into hysteria.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #45 on: August 19, 2022, 08:04:00 PM »

Thanks for these analysis posts.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #46 on: August 22, 2022, 01:30:58 AM »

The Kishida cabinet is lucky that the most recent polls don't necessarily represent something that marks a mortal threat to it and it can ride this out...seemingly.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #47 on: August 22, 2022, 01:42:55 AM »

https://www.soumu.go.jp/main_content/000820206.pdf
Found a PDF going into what the next round of redistricting in Japan will likely look like, courtesy of Japanese wikipedia.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #48 on: August 23, 2022, 01:06:27 AM »

What options does the Kishida government have to deal with this Unification Church issue? How do they regain control over the narrative?
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #49 on: August 27, 2022, 11:01:51 PM »

KP will also change leaders soon.  KP leader 山口 那津男(Yamaguchi Natsuo) who took over in 2009 after KP was soundly defeated in the 2009 Lower House elections in the DPJ landslide is stepping down after what is viewed as a setback in the 2022 Upper House elections where KP was reduced to 6 PR seats which most had expected 7 going into the election campaign.
Despite a tenure that lasted thirteen years, he's only the second-longest serving leader of the Komeito party. 竹入義勝 (Yoshikatsu Takeiri) served almost seven years longer.
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