Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Of all the possible outcomes I thought of when Abe was assassinated I certainly could not have imagined that it would bring JCP and JRP together in one table to plot against LDP. Interesting how DIY is left out of this though.

Sharks can smell blood in the water.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It seems some studio (with far left background) have been working around the clock to make a biographical movie on the life of Abe's assassin and it will come out on the day of Abe's state funeral.  It seems this move was made in secret for fear of interference from the Unification Church.  The movie is not meant to praise the assassin but to explain his motivations.

What is the likeliest day on which it would occur?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It seems some studio (with far left background) have been working around the clock to make a biographical movie on the life of Abe's assassin and it will come out on the day of Abe's state funeral.  It seems this move was made in secret for fear of interference from the Unification Church.  The movie is not meant to praise the assassin but to explain his motivations.

What is the likeliest day on which it would occur?

My understanding is that it will be on Sept 27.  USA VP Harris it seems will attend for USA

Ah.
Thanks.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What is likelihood Kishida is not PM by the end of the year?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What is likelihood Kishida is not PM by the end of the year?

Nil.  If you dig into the various polling support for Kishida and the Abe state funeral are still reasonably high amount core LDP voters.

I wonder how huge the divide is between LDP and opposition supporters is on the issue of the Abe funeral and the Unification Church more generally.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

More polls came in and the Kishida cabinet approval continues to fall

Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval curve.  Approval of 30 is viewed as the threshold when Kishida might have to go



Abe state funeral support/oppose average curve

Good lord that's a bad trend.
The funeral cannot happen soon enough for the LDP.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There are rumors that Kishida might be forced to call a snap Lowr House election to regain political momentum. There are fears from within the LDP that a snap election is the only way to avoid a slow death by one thousand cuts with this endless discussion on Unification Church in the media. 

Would the election be fought on the same boundaries as the 2021 election?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There are rumors that Kishida might be forced to call a snap Lowr House election to regain political momentum. There are fears from within the LDP that a snap election is the only way to avoid a slow death by one thousand cuts with this endless discussion on Unification Church in the media. 

Would the election be fought on the same boundaries as the 2021 election?

I think the new map.  I am not sure but I think the new maps have been passed already.

Huh.
So what would a snap Lower House election even look like? What kind of atmosphere could be expected?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Huh.
So what would a snap Lower House election even look like? What kind of atmosphere could be expected?

I would have no idea.  It would depend on the theme where Kishida justifies going for an early election.  There are two reasons why rumors of early elections come out
a) PM's position is such that early election is needed (PM authority in trouble OR high poll numbers means that perhaps PM should take advantage of it) and rumors are to get a sense of how it will be received
OR
b) PM is facing discipline issues within the LDP so rumors of early elections are needed to restore discipline

The closest analogy I could think of in regards to an early election is 2005. But that was almost two years after the most recent election.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The closest analogy I could think of in regards to an early election is 2005. But that was almost two years after the most recent election.

2005 was called due to the loss of authority of Koizumi due to Postal Reform rebels shooting down his Postal Reform bill

2014 was Abe taking advantage of poll lead

2017 was Abe losing authority internally due to scandals and the need to change the narrative as well as having an election while the opposition was going through reorganization

I guess I wouldn't be surprised to see an election in late 2022/early 2023.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

As mentioned before, the whole Unification Church business seems to have united the opposition parties.  It seems opposition party strategy meetings which include all mainstream opposition (CDP DPP JRP JCP RS SDP) are now a common occurrence.



So the Unification Church issue has gotten the JRP and JCP to attend meetings with each other on a recurring basis. 

There are talks of CDP-JRP tactical alliances in the next election.  It seems non-Osaka parts of JRP seem to be for some sort of tactical alliance with CDP next election while the Osaka parts of JRP are adamant that their long goal should still be to displace CDP as the main non-LDP opposition party area against any such deals.

The 2000s called, they want their suddenly effective Japanese opposition back.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

TBS continues its offensive against Unification Church.  They have yet another one-hour special about Unification Church.  This time they focus on one broken family that they claim was destroyed by Unification Church.

It focused on a family where this man's wife became obsessed with giving money to the church, became violent towards her husband, and was negligent to her son. The son eventually committed suicide by self-immolation.


The mother was absent from family life, taking long trips to Korea while her son struggled. When he dropped out of junior high school, she blamed an evil spirit that haunted their family's land. She sold it and donated the money to the church.


It then followed the man where he attempts to meet with Church officials to seek the return of his family's money. He pleads with them to either allow him to enter their building or come out and talk, but they refuse.


Then they go over Unification Church school material.  Sexual sins are described as worse than murder and robbery. Women who wear mini skirts, earrings, lipstick, or eyeshadow are helping Satan. No dating: The church will pick your spouse for you.

So uh. With all this fracas surrounding the church. What is stopping them from still working on campaigns? Only them not identifying themselves as members of said church?
Because this latest Japanese media panic is certainly not helping their reputation.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The LDP is losing, or has already lost, control over the narrative. Not a good thing for the government. Would not be too surprised to see the LDP lose a lot of seats at the next election (though far from enough to actually threaten their hold on power).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Well, Kishida probably could use this boost...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Well, it was a wild year...here's to see what 2023 brings.
Thread, sayonara...