🇸🇮 Slovenia 2022 elections: Parliament (24 April), President & local councils (fall)

[Astatine]

Slovenia is heading to the polls thrice next year – to elect a new Parliament in April and a new President as well as local councils in fall. The President has a largely ceremonial role, so the National Assembly is what matters the most.

Voting system

Slovenia uses proportional representation, the seats in Parliament are distributed according to D’Hondt’s allocation method. The country is subdivided in regional multi-member districts. A party needs to take the four percent threshold to be eligible for the 88 seats in the National Assembly. Two additional seats are reserved for one representative of each national minority each (Hungarians and Italians), they get elected on a separate ballot.

Background

Slovenia’s political landscape has been volatile in the last years, especially the center-left camp. After Slovenia’s independence from Yugoslavia, the “Liberal Democracy of Slovenia” (LDS) was the country’s dominant center-left force. After the first term of controversial national conservative PM Janez Janša (2004–2008), the Social Democrats (SD) were the dominant party on the center-left, only to be succeeded by liberal-populist Positive Slovenia (PS) in 2011 and the centrist Miro Cerar Party (SMC, later renamed to “Party of the Modern Center”) in 2014. Smaller liberal groups that split from LDS or its successor parties came and went, as visualized in this graph I created back in January:



Background color indicates the Prime Minister's party (grey: SKD, light blue: LDS, green/grey: SLS/NSi, yellow: SDS, red: SD, green/blue: PS/SAB, dark blue: SMC; have to add the new governments since 2018).

In the 2018 elections, Janša’s SDS became largest party, followed by the liberal Party of Marjan Šarec (LMŠ), SD and SMC that had collapsed from a third to 35 to 10 % of the vote. Next in line were the Left Party (Levica), the Christian Democratic party New Slovenia (NSi), the social-liberal Party of former PM Alenka Bratušek (SAB, split from PS in 2014), the pensioner’s party (DeSUS) and the Slovenian Nationalist Party (SNS).

SDS was shunned out from governing initially since LMŠ, SMC, SD, SAB and DeSUS formed a minority coalition that relied on the support of Levica. This didn’t go well for long, leading to Šarec’ resignation in spring of 2020 with the intention of calling a snap election. Confronted with bad polling numbers and the departure of Miro Cerar from party leadership, SMC decided to switch sides to the center-right bloc, with DeSUS doing the same. As SDS, SMC, NSi and DeSUS had a parliamentary majority with the support of SNS, the center-left parties ended up on the opposition benches.

The 3rd Janša government has seen its instabilities, especially after the DeSUS leadership decided to leave the coalition, but neither all DeSUS ministers nor MPs followed that step. DeSUS tried to propel its party leader Karl Erjavec to the PM position in a motion of no confidence that was supported by the other center-left parties, but this failed, leading to Erjavec’ departure from politics, leaving DeSUS in a state of disarray.

Ever since, the center-left got their grip together, with DeSUS not being part of the bloc. LMŠ, SD, Levica and SAB (to which several municipal DeSUS councilors defected) intend to form the next government under any circumstance, calling themselves “KUL” (Coalition of the Constitutional Arch). The KUL parties will still run separately in the next election, though. I’ll do a brief overview of all important parties some other time.

Janša’s clear problem is that his polarizing style makes him a difficult partner, although SDS has their core base of supporters who’ll back him no matter what, availing SDS to defend their position as largest party in all likelihood. Even Janša’s current coalition partner NSi had flirted with the idea of forming a coalition with center-left parties in 2018. The center-left parties’ main problem is their massive fragmentation, with new forces emerging every four years only to disappear shortly after or switching bloc. It seems likely this will happen this time around as well.

[Conservatopia]

Please do a post on the career of Alenka Bratusek.
Lol.

[Astatine]

Please do a post on the career of Alenka Bratusek.
Lol.

As wished, a (slightly) updated version of my post from February:

She got elected over the Positive Slovenia list in 2011 (after two failed attempts over LDS and Zares), was just a mere backbencher and happened to become... Prime Minister by accident. King Zoran I. of Ljubljana was busy being involved in shady corruption schemes, so Bratušek took over as interim party leader... And then, the 2013 motion of no confidence against Janša passed, and as leader of the largest party, she had to take office.

Her tenure as PM was not the worst that could happen to Slovenia, although she was often mocked for things like this:

Zoran Jankovic´then ousted her as party leader, and she subsequently resigned, earning 4.3 % with her ZaAB party (Alliance of Alenka Bratušek, but also a pun, as "za" means "for" in Slovene). Her time as caretaker PM until Miro Cerar would take office was definitely the most ridiculous part of her premiership: Cerar was already elected PM, but Bratušek's government still had to file a nominee for the Juncker commission. And because she was not really into being the caucus leader of one of Slovenia's liberal parties that would disappear after one term, she decided to nominate the most competent candidate she could think of for the Vice Presidency of the European Commission... herself (This gives Dick Cheney vibes) - and two candidates who would become party leaders later on, Karl Erjavec and Tanja Fajon. Several MEPs complained that the decision was anti-democratic.

The thing is, her caretaker government was not even unanimously in favor of nominating her. I believe it was a 5-4 vote or so, including her own.
She was literally grilled in Parliament for being incompetent:

...so she was forced to withdraw her candidacy and complained in a German newspaper that the questions she faced (like every nominee?) were unfair and biased against her.
A lawsuit was filed against her for the nomination procedure, but the charges were ultimately dismissed. Her reputation remained damaged, and 2 of her 3 colleagues of "ZaAB" decided they'd be better of "Brez AB", leading to the dissolution of the party caucus. The party couldn't even be measured in polling for 2 years.

Still, she successfully redeemed and rebranded herself (now her party is called SAB) with SMC' collapse and strong debate performances, getting reelected into Parl... o wait no, her party made it, but she didn't, as the complicated electoral system led to her losing her seat. So she was not only clueless, but also seatless. Her party went into the multicolored coalition, where she served as Deputy PM alongside her successor.
But with the center-left coalition resigning, she also lost that position and had time to post pictures of her cooking and doing sports, until February when the then-caucus leader of SAB died so she took over his seat.

Ah, and Slovenian man also happen to simp for her legs:

[Astatine]

It took a while until I could finally start covering parties... Not only due to lack of time, but also since I wanted to wait until shortly ahead of the election since a new center-left force was destined to magically appear out of nowhere. And it happened indeed, but let's start with the right bloc.

Pro Janša parties
Those parties have been backing Janez Janša in the past or are expected to do so.

SDS (Slovenian Democratic Party)
SDS is basically Slovenia's own version of Fidesz. Janez Janša has been leader of the party since 1993, and while it was originally center-right party, it took a turn to the right over time and is now the "enfant terrible" in the EPP. SDS has a stable core of Janša supporters, who'd vote for him no matter what, in spite of his corruption scandals and increasing authoritarianism (...or rather, because of it).
2018: 24.9 %
Current polling: 20-26 %

NSi (New Slovenia)
NSi is also a member of the EPP group, but far less populist than SDS. NSi emphasizes values of Christian Democracy on topics such as abortion and has quite popular politicians in its rows, such as MEP Ljudmila Novak. While NSi would obviously join a coalition led by Janša again, they are somewhat open to collaborate with the center-left camp under certain conditions - although such negotiations failed in 2018.
2018: 7.2 %
Current polling: 5-8 %

PoS (Connect Slovenia)
PoS is an electoral alliance of what's left of some formerly successful parties and SDS satellites: The traditional agrarian SLS (that hasn't been in Parliament since 2014) and the former party of Ex-PM Miro Cerar SMC. SMC turned out to be the center-left one hit wonder in 2014, so when the center-left coalition collapsed in 2020, its MPs wanted to rescue their careers by making a full U-turn to the right. PoS is a desperate project to offer a somewhat reasonable alternative for the center, although it's clear they'd join an SDS-led coalition. The leader of the eco-conservative Green Party within this alliance, Andrej Čuš, used to be chairman of the SDS youth wing.
2018: 9.8 % (SMC) + 2.6 % (SLS) + 1.1 % (AČZS) = 13.5 %
Current polling: 2-5 %

SNS (Slovenian Nationalist Party)
Has been led by Zmago Jelinčič ever since. Typical far-right Euroskeptical party that spreads hatred against Romani, LGBT, Muslims etc. Have been supporting Janša's minority government on a confidence and supply base in Parliament and are unlikely to join a coalition.
2018: 4.2 %
Current polling: 2-4 %

[Astatine]

Little update as the elections are nearing - was kinda busy and forgot about the thread, but here are some more parties!

Coalition of the Constitutional Arch (KUL)
An alliance of left of center parties that announced their intention to form a government after the election. Until the emergence of GS (will be covered later), it seemed likely they will gain a majority, but as of now, they won't get one on their own. Opposing Janša at all cost.

SD (Social Democrats)
SD emerged out of the Slovene branch of the Yugoslav League of Communists, but they're classical social democrats now. Their leader, MEP Tanja Fajon, is quite popular and looked like the safe pick to become the country's next Prime Minister for a while, but SD's popularity faded just shortly ahead of the election and now they're likely to remain stagnant at their usual voter core.
2018: 9.9 %
Current polling: 7-10 %

LMŠ (List of Marjan Šarec)
LMŠ was the liberal newcomer party of 2018, with Marjan Šarec becoming PM after forming a coalition with SD, SMC, SAB and DeSUS (supported by Levica). Disagreements with Levica led to his resignation in hope to trigger snap elections, but as DeSUS and SMC switched sides, Šarec lost his position. They were polling at 41 % at some point, but all left of center parties currently suffer of the new competition from GS. It seems like they will repeat the destiny of SMC and fall into irrelevancy after the next election.
2018: 12.6 %
Current polling: 4-6 %

Levica (Left)
Levica defines itself as democratic socialist party - and as the current war in Ukraine goes on, they have had their struggles to find a clear position opposing Russian aggression. Levica is the most tricky partner out of KUL (which means "cool" in Slovene btw), but they got their act together and could join the government which would probably cause less struggle than a solely confidence & supply agreement. Current leader is Luka Mesec, Slovenia's own Olivier Besancenot, a 34 year old stuck in the body of a twink.
2018: 12.6 %
Current polling: 5-9 %

SAB (Party of Alenka Bratušek)
I think my detailed post about her shows my weird admiration of her skills to survive as politician. SAB was proclaimed dead several times, they had a surge around fall when several DeSUS councillors switched to SAB, but future of the party looks uncertain. But note that SAB has a history of being severely underpolled. SAB is - according to what a Slovene from a Discord server I'm in told me - running on appealing to wine mums and pensioners right now. If they make it, they're the first Slovenian liberal party to break the curse - Since LDS, no other liberal party (DeSUS doesn't count, next post) entered Parliament more than twice.
2018: 5.1 %
Current polling: 3-4 %

Btw, polling for the right of center parties didn't really change in recent weeks/months. Numbers from last post still roundabout reflect the current polls (I excluded Parsifal, their numbers are complete outliers).

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

SD (Social Democrats)
SD emerged out of the Slovene branch of the Yugoslav League of Communists, but they're classical social democrats now. Their leader, MEP Tanja Fajon, is quite popular and looked like the safe pick to become the country's next Prime Minister for a while, but SD's popularity faded just shortly ahead of the election and now they're likely to remain stagnant at their usual voter core.
2018: 9.9 %
Current polling: 7-10 %

SD are such a funny party. Their fate is to be teased forever with strong polling while they serve as a parking lot for anti-Janša voters, until the next one-hit-wonder pop-up left-liberal party is launched and they go right back to single digits.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Anyway, Janez Drnovšek summed up modern Slovenian politics all the way back in 1998:

"Kaj bi prinesel moj odstop? Gospodje, vsi, ki me pozivate k odstopu, ki me napadate, gospodje iz opozicije, saj se boste potem pobili za moje nasledstvo."

He was right, the Slovenian political class have never filled the void he left, and they never will, but they'll happily destroy themselves trying.

[crals]

What about the latest flash in the pan one man show Liberal party?

[Astatine]

Final drop before election day:

The other parties
Not part of any "bloc" (government or KUL), but nevertheless it's more or less clear with whom they'll align after the election.

GS (Freedom Movement)
GS is the center-leftish hyped newcomer this cycle: the former CEO of Slovenia's state owned energy operator GEN-I Robert Golob was sacked in a controversial move by the Janša government in 2021, so he just decided that it's his time to be the new face of the anti-Janša bloc. GS itself existed pre Golob as "Z.Dej" and was a center-ish green party, and GS also seems to be more focused on environmental issues than the other liberal one hit wonders. The party doesn't seem to have much substance beyond that and will probably ally with KUL - perhaps at the expense of Levica?
Current polling: 23-28 %

DeSUS (Pensioner's Party)
DeSUS is representing the interests of Slovenia's elderly and joined nearly every government since its creation in 1996, no matter if led by Janša or a party of the center-left bloc. Future looks bleak for DeSUS as of now: The party is in disarray after it initially left the Janša government and joined KUL in trying to oust Janša in a no confidence vote, but its own MPs didn't support the move, so long term leader Karl Erjavec abandoned politics. Huge mess which very likely will cost the party its seats in Parliament.
2018: 4.9 %
Current polling: 0-2 %

PSS (Pirate Party)
Well, Slovenia's own pirate party, which usually attracts younger voters and would more likely back a center-left government. But it seems unlikely they'll make it.
2018: 2.2 %
Current polling: 2-3 %

ND (Our Country)
New party led by former DeSUS chairwoman Aleksandra Pivec who left the party after several disagreements. Pivec backed Janša as MP and would probably do so if the party takes the 4 % threshold. ND focuses on rural issues and farmers' interests.
Current polling: 1-3 %

Vesna (Spring)
New green left movement (left-wing greens are comparatively rare in Slovenia), founded this year. Emphasis on typical green issues such as a vehement opposition to NEK-2 (building a new reactor in Krško, other parties are rather in favor or want a referendum). Vesna would probably remain in opposition but I could see them providing confidence and supply to a center-left government if needed.
Current polling: 1-2 %

Resnica (Truth)
Originally an anti-vaxxer and anti-Covid restriction party that backs many conspiracy theories and loves to protest. Anti-establishment and libertarian-ish, they want a decriminalization of cannabis, massive tax cuts, more direct democracy and freedom of speech. Probably comparable to "Živi zid" in Croatia. Might make it into Parliament as a surprise.
Current polling: 2-3 %

The last two polls dropped today and they look quite bleak for LMŠ:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1517602498349084672
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1517579412245516288

[Astatine]

His opponents change, but Janša remains:

https://twitter.com/PeterJerman2/status/1494609069944066049

[Mike88]

Turnout so far is quite high compared with previous election at 11am:

21.1% (+3.8% compared with 2018)

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Robert Golob's surge is very funny and also very stupid but most of all so quintessentially Slovenian. I guess I hope it will ally with KUL and result in something stabler than the previous experience of this kind... but for the most part I am here to mourn the "perennially overshadowed" fate of the Social Democrats.

[Mike88]

Turnout continues well up, compared with previous elections. At 4pm:

49.3% (+15.0% compared with 2018)

[Mike88]

Exit poll: Massive defeat for SDS.

https://twitter.com/n1slovenija/status/1518274149281517568

[Logical]

Results page.
https://volitve.dvk-rs.si/#/rezultati
I can't find a live stream of Slovenian TV.

[PetrSokol]

https://www.rtvslo.si/tv/vzivo/tvs1

[Walmart_shopper]

Exit poll: Massive defeat for SDS.

https://twitter.com/n1slovenija/status/1518274149281517568

Wonderful news. Is this enough for a center-left coalition?

[S019]

Exit poll: Massive defeat for SDS.

https://twitter.com/n1slovenija/status/1518274149281517568

Wonderful news. Is this enough for a center-left coalition?

The GS and SD would likely have a majority alone, so yes.

[Mike88]

Exit poll: Massive defeat for SDS.

https://twitter.com/n1slovenija/status/1518274149281517568

Wonderful news. Is this enough for a center-left coalition?

The GS and SD would likely have a majority alone, so yes.

GS is at 42 seats, a majority is reach with 46 seats. But with either SD or Levica, a majority is easily reached.

[S019]

Exit poll: Massive defeat for SDS.

https://twitter.com/n1slovenija/status/1518274149281517568

Wonderful news. Is this enough for a center-left coalition?

The GS and SD would likely have a majority alone, so yes.

GS is at 42 seats, a majority is reach with 46 seats. But with either SD or Levica, a majority is easily reached.

Yeah that's what I meant GS+SD would combine for 46+ seats.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

GS potentially getting an even higher share than Miro Cerar's party in 2014... Slovenian voters are really amazing.

[Logical]

At least Janez gets to spend more time sh**tposting on Twitter.

[Astatine]

[Astatine]

21% counted

GS: 31.3 %
SDS: 26.7 %
NSi: 7.4 %
SD: 6.6 %
PoS: 3.9 %
Levice: 3.6 %
LMŠ: 3.4 %
Resnica: 3.0 %
SAB: 2.2 %
ND: 1.9 %
SNS: 1.8 %
Vesna: 1.2 %

[Mike88]

Levica is improving very slowly as votes are counted. Not sure if they will make it over the threshold. If they fail to reach 4%, maybe GS can win a majority.