If the pandemic never happened what would the results have been?

[Pericles]

It is very easy to see people thinking that with the economy in good shape and no other disasters for the country, they should just stick with the incumbent. He would lose the popular vote because of his personality but in hindsight he was on track to be re-elected. Covid meant that re-electing him wasn't the safe option anymore because things were going badly for normal people and he gave the impression that he was not in control.

[Pericles]

It's clear now Trump would've been reelected if not for Covid despite what I thought at the time. So if you wanted to find the silver lining of the pandemic, I guess that would be it

Dems would have been far better off throughout the 2020s had Trump won in 2020. The pandemic has been a disaster for Democrats.

My response:

Possibly, but no one will ever convince me Trump winning 2020 would be good for Democrats. Trump was a dangerous lunatic, it is an immeasurable good he is no longer in a position of power, for now at least.

The 2020's are likely to be bad for the democrats but it is not yet certain and I think it's a little absurd to suggest that giving Trump a second victory would change the facist trajectory of the GOP or the slow death of American democracy.

Giving Trump a second term would make it more likely for Democrats to actually get a governing majority in 2024 or at least have a seat at the table throughout the decade due to control of the House.

For all we know though they could have lost a few seats in the 2024 Senate races while gaining the presidency so done similarly or worse to 2020, especially if without the pandemic they choked badly in the 2020 Senate races.