If the pandemic never happened what would the results have been?
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  If the pandemic never happened what would the results have been?
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Poll
Question: Without the pandemic what are the results of the election?
#1
Trump is re-elected
 
#2
Biden narrowly wins like in real life
 
#3
Biden wins by more than he did in real life
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 73

Author Topic: If the pandemic never happened what would the results have been?  (Read 2558 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: January 02, 2022, 01:32:46 AM »

What would the results of the elections have looked like without the pandemic?
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TML
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: January 02, 2022, 01:57:19 AM »

Biden was essentially the same kind of establishment candidate that Hillary was; if Trump had not been distracted by culture wars, he could have employed the same playbook he used against Hillary to win re-election.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #2 on: January 02, 2022, 02:23:36 AM »

Biden was essentially the same kind of establishment candidate that Hillary was; if Trump had not been distracted by culture wars, he could have employed the same playbook he used against Hillary to win re-election.

Except, again, Biden was never as unpopular as Clinton. "Culture wars" like COVID-related restrictions and riots were probably the only reason the election was even this close.

He also very much did try to employ the same playbook he used against Clinton, it just didn’t stick.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #3 on: January 02, 2022, 02:38:35 AM »

Biden was essentially the same kind of establishment candidate that Hillary was; if Trump had not been distracted by culture wars, he could have employed the same playbook he used against Hillary to win re-election.

Except, again, Biden was never as unpopular as Clinton. "Culture wars" like COVID-related restrictions and riots were probably the only reason the election was even this close.

He also very much did try to employ the same playbook he used against Clinton, it just didn’t stick.

And the riots probably don't happen without COVID, at least not nearly to the same extent that they did in real life.
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dw93
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« Reply #4 on: January 02, 2022, 03:05:10 AM »

Trump wins with the 2016 map minus MI and NE 2nd.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #5 on: January 02, 2022, 03:08:12 AM »

Biden was essentially the same kind of establishment candidate that Hillary was; if Trump had not been distracted by culture wars, he could have employed the same playbook he used against Hillary to win re-election.

Except, again, Biden was never as unpopular as Clinton. "Culture wars" like COVID-related restrictions and riots were probably the only reason the election was even this close.

He also very much did try to employ the same playbook he used against Clinton, it just didn’t stick.

And the riots probably don't happen without COVID, at least not nearly to the same extent that they did in real life.

I should add that I still think COVID overall was a net negative for Trump, but that had more to do with how his handling of the pandemic became entangled with/inseparable from his personal conduct/unpopularity. If he hadn’t acted like the narcissist he is, he could have turned it into a winning issue (or at least a neutral one) rather than one which continuously reminded everyone of his egomania.

It definitely was a winnable election for Republicans, and it’s one any halfway competent Republican President with that record would have won. Even Trump had an incumbency advantage in 2020, it just wasn’t enough against an opponent far more popular/uncontroversial than Clinton. Of course Republicans also underperformed the overall fundamentals in 2018, again under Trump — if you look back on the entire Trump presidency/candidacy, it’s entirely possible that Trump's unpopularity and unique issues as a candidate delayed/concealed a Republican realignment which is only becoming evident now (as opposed to after November 2014, if a more skilled figure had led the party and won the nomination in 2016/been reelected in 2020). This might also partly explain why Democrats seem to be struggling so much right now — the Trump elections actually made the country look more Democratic than it is. Of course this is quite a different view from "Trump was the most electable candidate in 2016," but it’s one I’ve held for quite some time now. This also explains why the "low-propensity Trump voters" theory never really materialized this year.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #6 on: January 02, 2022, 03:22:14 AM »

Trump wins.

No COVID means the media fellate themselves to him via false equivalence, meaning the October Surprise inevitably hits Biden.

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Pericles
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« Reply #7 on: January 02, 2022, 04:03:30 AM »

It is very easy to see people thinking that with the economy in good shape and no other disasters for the country, they should just stick with the incumbent. He would lose the popular vote because of his personality but in hindsight he was on track to be re-elected. Covid meant that re-electing him wasn't the safe option anymore because things were going badly for normal people and he gave the impression that he was not in control.
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Computer89
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« Reply #8 on: January 02, 2022, 04:09:21 AM »

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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #9 on: January 02, 2022, 09:55:30 AM »

The problem with this is that we don’t know what else would have happened if the pandemic didn’t. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #10 on: January 02, 2022, 10:00:14 AM »

Trump most likely wins losing only MI in an election sort of like Obama won re-election in 2012 losing only IN and NC.   But without the 2020 spring/summer riots I suspect GOP would do a bit worse down-ballot than reality.
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GregTheGreat657
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« Reply #11 on: January 02, 2022, 11:24:30 AM »

Biden was essentially the same kind of establishment candidate that Hillary was; if Trump had not been distracted by culture wars, he could have employed the same playbook he used against Hillary to win re-election.
He also very much did try to employ the same playbook he used against Clinton, it just didn’t stick.
His main attack against Biden was calling him a "trojan horse for socialism" rather than mainly attacking him as a corrupt establishmentarian like he did with Hillary
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MABA 2020
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« Reply #12 on: January 02, 2022, 01:14:13 PM »

It's clear now Trump would've been reelected if not for Covid despite what I thought at the time. So if you wanted to find the silver lining of the pandemic, I guess that would be it
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #13 on: January 02, 2022, 01:34:10 PM »

It's clear now Trump would've been reelected if not for Covid despite what I thought at the time. So if you wanted to find the silver lining of the pandemic, I guess that would be it

Dems would have been far better off throughout the 2020s had Trump won in 2020. The pandemic has been a disaster for Democrats.
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MABA 2020
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« Reply #14 on: January 02, 2022, 05:42:05 PM »

It's clear now Trump would've been reelected if not for Covid despite what I thought at the time. So if you wanted to find the silver lining of the pandemic, I guess that would be it

Dems would have been far better off throughout the 2020s had Trump won in 2020. The pandemic has been a disaster for Democrats.

My response:
Possibly, but no one will ever convince me Trump winning 2020 would be good for Democrats. Trump was a dangerous lunatic, it is an immeasurable good he is no longer in a position of power, for now at least.

The 2020's are likely to be bad for the democrats but it is not yet certain and I think it's a little absurd to suggest that giving Trump a second victory would change the facist trajectory of the GOP or the slow death of American democracy.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #15 on: January 02, 2022, 06:48:38 PM »
« Edited: January 02, 2022, 06:52:32 PM by Mr.Phips »

It's clear now Trump would've been reelected if not for Covid despite what I thought at the time. So if you wanted to find the silver lining of the pandemic, I guess that would be it

Dems would have been far better off throughout the 2020s had Trump won in 2020. The pandemic has been a disaster for Democrats.

My response:
Possibly, but no one will ever convince me Trump winning 2020 would be good for Democrats. Trump was a dangerous lunatic, it is an immeasurable good he is no longer in a position of power, for now at least.

The 2020's are likely to be bad for the democrats but it is not yet certain and I think it's a little absurd to suggest that giving Trump a second victory would change the facist trajectory of the GOP or the slow death of American democracy.

Giving Trump a second term would make it more likely for Democrats to actually get a governing majority in 2024 or at least have a seat at the table throughout the decade due to control of the House.
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #16 on: January 02, 2022, 09:56:26 PM »

The other big factor is that I don't think the George Floyd situation and everything that followed would have happened* without covid.  Who knows how that changes things.

*It's quite possible that Floyd's death would never have happened due to a butterfly effect, but, even if it did, I don't think the protests would have been as large as they were.  There was a lot of tension already in the air due to covid and frustration from having been cooped up at home.
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Pericles
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« Reply #17 on: January 03, 2022, 02:50:47 AM »

It's clear now Trump would've been reelected if not for Covid despite what I thought at the time. So if you wanted to find the silver lining of the pandemic, I guess that would be it

Dems would have been far better off throughout the 2020s had Trump won in 2020. The pandemic has been a disaster for Democrats.

My response:
Possibly, but no one will ever convince me Trump winning 2020 would be good for Democrats. Trump was a dangerous lunatic, it is an immeasurable good he is no longer in a position of power, for now at least.

The 2020's are likely to be bad for the democrats but it is not yet certain and I think it's a little absurd to suggest that giving Trump a second victory would change the facist trajectory of the GOP or the slow death of American democracy.

Giving Trump a second term would make it more likely for Democrats to actually get a governing majority in 2024 or at least have a seat at the table throughout the decade due to control of the House.

For all we know though they could have lost a few seats in the 2024 Senate races while gaining the presidency so done similarly or worse to 2020, especially if without the pandemic they choked badly in the 2020 Senate races.
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Computer89
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« Reply #18 on: January 05, 2022, 02:19:49 AM »
« Edited: January 05, 2022, 02:26:57 AM by Old School Republican »

It's clear now Trump would've been reelected if not for Covid despite what I thought at the time. So if you wanted to find the silver lining of the pandemic, I guess that would be it

Dems would have been far better off throughout the 2020s had Trump won in 2020. The pandemic has been a disaster for Democrats.

My response:
Possibly, but no one will ever convince me Trump winning 2020 would be good for Democrats. Trump was a dangerous lunatic, it is an immeasurable good he is no longer in a position of power, for now at least.

The 2020's are likely to be bad for the democrats but it is not yet certain and I think it's a little absurd to suggest that giving Trump a second victory would change the facist trajectory of the GOP or the slow death of American democracy.

Giving Trump a second term would make it more likely for Democrats to actually get a governing majority in 2024 or at least have a seat at the table throughout the decade due to control of the House.

For all we know though they could have lost a few seats in the 2024 Senate races while gaining the presidency so done similarly or worse to 2020, especially if without the pandemic they choked badly in the 2020 Senate races.


Also Republicans winning Term 3 may be possible in a no pandemic world even if I think thats very likely. It would though depend on a few things:


- Would someone like Mike Pence be able to keep the Trump base

- When the inevitable end to the mid/late 2010s boom happens cause if it happens early enough and if its only a early 2000s style recession is very possible the economy could be pretty strong in 2024 as well

- How strong potential candidates like Whitmer/Cooper/Polis cause the new comers to the 2020 dem field were pretty weak candidates.


Keep in mind that McCain pre Lehman was tied in the polls(even though he was always narrowly down
EV wise ) and that was despite Bush’s approval being in the 20s , Iraq being very unpopular, the economy already in decline and the democrats nominating a strong of a candidate like Obama
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #19 on: January 05, 2022, 09:30:15 AM »

It's hard to say in the end, though I tend to believe Trump winning reelection without the pandemic is a myth. He was already one of the most unpopular presidents in history and had a relatively wide coalition against him. I'm not convinced he would have won otherwise, though for sure I can't rule it out.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #20 on: January 05, 2022, 11:38:04 AM »

It's hard to say in the end, though I tend to believe Trump winning reelection without the pandemic is a myth. He was already one of the most unpopular presidents in history and had a relatively wide coalition against him. I'm not convinced he would have won otherwise, though for sure I can't rule it out.

Trump came so close to winning reelection even with the pandemic. Without the pandemic, I think he might have actually gotten over the finish line. It would have been close all the same, but Democrats would have had less of a persuasive argument to make to independents. Biden won largely because of moderate and independent voters who didn't think Trump was handling the pandemic appropriately or seriously enough and thought Biden would "right the ship."
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #21 on: February 08, 2022, 10:49:14 PM »

Without the pandemic, the 2020 election is a totally different race &, as a result, an incredibly hard-to-predict one at that.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #22 on: February 09, 2022, 01:43:09 AM »

Biden was essentially the same kind of establishment candidate that Hillary was; if Trump had not been distracted by culture wars, he could have employed the same playbook he used against Hillary to win re-election.

Except, again, Biden was never as unpopular as Clinton. "Culture wars" like COVID-related restrictions and riots were probably the only reason the election was even this close.

He also very much did try to employ the same playbook he used against Clinton, it just didn’t stick.

And importantly, unlike Clinton, Biden wasn't caught off-guard. He was prepared and he didn't take WI/MI/PA for granted like she did, even when the polls said the states were going to go blue for sure (I remember seeing polls saying thinks like PA being Biden+7, that were pretty common pre-election).

The answer is Trump Wins Reelection, though, since the tipping-point state was just Biden+0.63 and we can't pretend that COVID19 didn't hurt Trump overall quite a bit.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #23 on: February 09, 2022, 01:50:31 AM »

Agree with this as a prediction -

Trump wins with the 2016 map minus MI and NE 2nd.


(Except I disagree with OSR that NV would flip Republican.)

But obviously, these posts are completely correct as well and I don't think giving an exact map is really possible (though if forced to it would probably be the above results)-

The problem with this is that we don’t know what else would have happened if the pandemic didn’t. 
Without the pandemic, the 2020 election is a totally different race &, as a result, an incredibly hard-to-predict one at that.

Calthrina puts it well -
It's hard to say in the end, though I tend to believe Trump winning reelection without the pandemic is a myth. He was already one of the most unpopular presidents in history and had a relatively wide coalition against him. I'm not convinced he would have won otherwise, though for sure I can't rule it out.

Trump came so close to winning reelection even with the pandemic. Without the pandemic, I think he might have actually gotten over the finish line. It would have been close all the same, but Democrats would have had less of a persuasive argument to make to independents. Biden won largely because of moderate and independent voters who didn't think Trump was handling the pandemic appropriately or seriously enough and thought Biden would "right the ship."

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DPKdebator
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« Reply #24 on: February 09, 2022, 08:25:19 AM »

It's easy to reflexively say Trump would win, but really it depends on how the campaigns turn out and the state of the country and economy. While Biden was never going to be as disliked as Hillary was, his favorability numbers might've taken a hit during a normal campaign since he'd make many gaffes and get into spats with voters like he did in the early stages of the campaign, whereas with the pandemic his team could fall back on prepared statements and other virtual methods of campaigning. For all we know, some entirely different divisive culture wars issue could've sprung up that Trump would use to drum up base turnout. The pandemic changed so many things that it's more than a matter of just extrapolating where we were in late 2019 and early 2020.
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